SSLYAR’s Preseason 2012 Quarterback Power Rankings

With the start of the regular season a little less than a week away, now seems like an ideal time to take a look at football’s most important position via banging out a preliminary power ranking that, in all likelihood, will look hilariously outdated by the end of September. Really, I’m just posting a preseason version of this so we can look back at it in January and laugh at how much things changed during the season. It’ll be fun! Now I made these rankings after closely consulting passing statistics from the past three years (with considerable weight placed on 2011), but ultimately they’re still subjective, as I tried to take into account things such as relative talent of each quarterback’s supporting cast, age, and general aura of suckiness (or lack thereof). For the ease of the reader, we’ll break this sucker down into general tiers and go in reverse order because it’ll heighten the drama of when I’m going to announce Aaron Rodgers as the best quarterback alive. First, though, let’s take a look at the quarterbacks who aren’t listed in the top 32 below and yet appear to be their team’s starting quarterback opening day…

Ryan Tannehill was a league-average quarterback last year – in the Big 12. I can only assume he’ll be much better this year on a team where his best receiver is Davone Bess…Brandon Weeden applied for Social Security last month…Jake Locker grew up on a farm in Washington State, which means he literally couldn’t hit the broad side of a barn…Blaine Gabbert turtles whenever he sees Justin Tuck in those Subway commercials…Christian Ponder bears a remarkable resemblance to Doug Flutie while bringing little of the excitement…Russell Wilson looks like he’ll be a good one in the future; whether that’s the near or distant future is anyone’s guess, though…John Skelton may or may not start opening day for the Cardinals; I think Ken Whisenhunt’s best option is probably snapping the ball twenty yards behind the line of scrimmage to Patrick Peterson and having him pretend that it’s a punt return every play…And Sam Bradford proved that it’s pretty tough to win when you’re battling a high ankle sprain and throwing to fans pulled out of the stands before the game…

Onto to the rankings…

The Kordell Stewart “Only as a Last Resort” Division

32. Rex Grossman, Washington Redskins.
31. Matt Cassel, Kansas City Chiefs.

30. Tim Tebow, New York Jets.

I’m including Tebow in the top 32 because of the effect he has on a team’s running game; I still think that were you to pair him with a great running back like Maurice Jones-Drew, you’d be able to run for something around 5.5 yards per carry and get 3000 yards on the ground over the course of the season. BALL-CONTROL OFFENSE right there. I’d much rather have that than Matt Cassel throwing 20 wide receiver screens a game.

The Mike Tomczak “Hey, I’m Not So Bad in Limited Amounts of Playing Time” Division

29. Matt Hasselbeck, Tennessee Titans.

28. Matt Moore, Miami Dolphins.

Two quarterbacks who were perfectly average last season, which is the exact wrong place you want to be if you’re a starting quarterback and over the age of 25. If you’re average and perceived to have hit your ceiling, NFL teams will go for the risky yet young gunslingers every time.

The Scott Mitchell “Intriguing Backup Who Hasn’t Shown Anything as a Starter Yet” Division

27. Kevin Kolb, Arizona Cardinals.

26. Matt Flynn, Seattle Seahawks.

I’m still fairly high on Flynn, though his demotion at the hands of Russell Wilson coupled with Joe Philbin’s refusal to bring him to Miami are a couple of bad signs. Kolb will likely be knocked for the season by week 3 with wind-related injuries.

The Rodney Peete “Uh, Guys, I Really Don’t Think I Should Be Starting” Division

25. Ryan Fitzpatrick, Buffalo Bills.

24. Mark Sanchez, New York Jets.

The two biggest reasons I’m skeptical of my playoff predictions for the Bills and Jets. But they’re going to have easy schedules, right? They can’t possibly screw things up that much, right? Right?

The Gus Frerotte “Roughly League-Average Starter (minus the headbutting)” Division

23. Josh Freeman, Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
22. Alex Smith, San Francisco 49ers.
21. Jason Campbell, Chicago Bears.
20. Carson Palmer, Oakland Raiders.
19. Kyle Orton, Dallas Cowboys.

18. Andy Dalton, Cincinnati Bengals.

Orton and Campbell fell prey to the youth movement that’s afoot in NFL franchises everywhere these days; looking strictly at production, those two could easily find starting jobs on probably a dozen teams around the league. My guess is Freeman (and perhaps Dalton) will rise into the above-average division by season’s end. Carson Palmer could, too, if he avoids throwing 30 interceptions first.

The Peyton Manning circa 1998 “We’ve Stumbled Upon a GOLD MINE here!” Division

17. Robert Griffin III, Washington Redskins.

16. Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts.

These two probably won’t perform as well as the division below them, but there’s no question you’d rather have them long-term. I’m only ranking Luck above RGIII because the Colts never seriously questioned whether they were going to take him first.

The Stan Humphries “Slightly Above-Average Starter” Division

15. Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens.

I had a whale of a time trying to figure out where to put Mr. Flacco; he’s definitely better than the likes of Alex Smith and Jason Campbell, but it just felt wrong putting in the same group as Cam and Matt Stafford. Hence, this is my compromise.

The Ron Jaworski “Above-Average Starter in the NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE” Division

14. Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears.
13. Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons.
12. Michael Vick, Philadelphia Eagles.
11. Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions.

10. Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers.

This is the line in the sand, I think, where you can easily envision winning a Super Bowl with any of these quarterbacks without needing the equivalent of the ’85 Bears or ’00 Ravens defense to help out. I would rank Vick higher, but he’s always hurt for three games a season, so that hurts in the final analysis. Stafford undeniably is helped by having the best wide receiver in the world at his disposal; I’m ranking Cam ahead of him because I’m pretty sure Newton would have been able to toss jump balls up to Calvin Johnson last year, too, in addition to being one of the best short-distance runners in the league.

The Peyton Manning circa 2012 “I have NO IDEA where to put this guy” Division

9. Peyton Manning, Denver Broncos.

I mean…do you?

The Donovan McNabb “Elite, One Step Short of True Franchise Quarterback” Division

8. Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers.
7. Matt Schaub, Houston Texans.
6. Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers.
5. Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys.

4. Eli Manning, New York Giants.

You could arrange this order just by picking names out of a hat and it would be just as valid. I explained my Romo defense in the Cowboys preview I posted last month; with the exception of the three guys in the “Franchise” Division, I would happily take Romo’s excellence 90% of the time and put up with the choking in the other 10%. In researching the past three seasons statistically, I was shocked to see how high Matt Schaub ranked in efficiency. I know Roethlisberger has the better reputation and Schaub has Andre Johnson…but overall, hasn’t Roethlisberger’s group of receivers been better than Schaub’s the past few years (particularly with all the time Johnson has missed)? Eli gets the edge because of his play last postseason, but I don’t feel that any of these quarterbacks are particularly close to the three ranked above them.

The Dan Marino “True Franchise Quarterback” Division

3. Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints.
2. Tom Brady, New England Patriots.

1. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers.

I would be fine with any of these guys as my quarterback.

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