Game of the Week: Hall of Fame Game, Cardinals vs. Saints

Holy crap everybody, the NFL is back!!! Kind of. I guess. The Hall of Fame Game between the Cardinals and Saints kicks off both the NFL exhibition season this weekend and our new series Game of the Week, an article previewing a particular game of the upcoming week. Without any further ado, let’s get down to the nitty-gritty here…

• Who: Arizona Cardinals vs. New Orleans Saints
• Where: Fawcett Stadium, Canton, OH
• When: 8:00 P.M. (EST), Sunday, August 5
• Network: NFL (Play-by-play by Brad Nessler, Color commentary by Mike Mayock). NBC usually handles the broadcast of the Hall of Fame game but is too busy this year scoring massive ratings for the Olympics. THEIR LOSS.

Key storylines:

1. Chase Daniel begins his quest to beat out Drew Brees for the Saints quarterback position. And you have no choice but to take him seriously. When he was asked whether he was worried about losing his backup position to newcomer Luke McCown (which, if that happens, just retire, Chase), Mr. Daniel had the audacity to say, ““What competition? I am trying to take Drew Brees’s spot. I don’t see a competition with any other quarterback but Drew on the roster right now.” Many may scoff at such a proclamation, considering Daniel has thrown for 40,697 fewer yards in his career than Brees, but I choose to see a man who showed me he could successfully complete a pass off a fake field-goal attempt last season. Sure, the pass didn’t gain enough yardage for the first down and the ball went over to the other side, but that doesn’t matter. The Chase Daniel for Saints Starting Quarterback 2012 campaign begins on Sunday. And, much like whenever Ralph Nader ran for president, you gotta consider him a contender.
2. The Inevitable 4th Quarter Battle of Gunslingers between Sean Canfield and Ryan Lindley. Hate to break it to you, but Drew Brees isn’t going to have any impact on who decides this contest. Neither will Kevin Kolb, John Skelton, or the aforementioned Daniel. No, the field generals we’re going to have in the fourth quarter Sunday night will likely be Canfield, a third-year player out of Oregon State, and Lindley, a rookie out of San Diego State. The over/under for combined passing yards in that final quarter is currently set at 425. I’ll take the over and renew my membership to the Canfield and Lindley fan clubs. These guys have it all (copyright Bill Walton).
3. Who will be the first Hall of Fame inductee interviewed on the sideline during the game? To me, this is a pretty clear debate. Curtis Martin played for a long time for big-market teams and is the only skill position player among this year’s inductees. Thus, my thought is they’ll trot him out sometime late in the first quarter while there is still a semblance of an audience watching. But what if the NFL Network decides to interview Jack Butler first to make sure they interview while he’s still alive? What if they toss us a curveball and goes with Willie Roaf? Or, even wilder, Dermontti Dawson?? THE POSSIBILITIES ARE ENDLESS.

Steve Stone’s Said in Stone Cold Lock of the Game: “Sandy Koufax, one of the greatest pitchers of all time, once said that he had his best stuff 25 percent of the time. That meant he had to learn to pitch without his best for the other 75 percent of the time.

Projected Final Score: Saints 34, Cardinals 7.

Team To Bet On If Gambling Were Legal: Saints (-3).

2012 Team Previews: Green Bay Packers

Green Bay Packers

• 2011 Record: 15-1 (1st in NFC North, lost NFC Divisional Game to NY Giants)
• 2011 Point Differential: +201 (2nd out of 32)
• 2011 Strength of Schedule (per PFR’s SRS system): –1.2 (28th)
• 2011 Adjusted Net Yards per Pass Attempt (offense): 9.4 (1st)
• 2011 Adjusted Net Yards per Pass Attempt (defense): 6.0 (t-19th)
• 2011 Adjusted Pythagorean Record (accounting for Strength of Schedule): 11.6-4.4 (2nd)
• 2010 Adjusted Pythagorean Record: 12.8-3.2 (2nd)

And now a photo essay called…Great Moments in Aaron Rodgers Photobombing History

2011 was the year Aaron Rodgers firmly staked his claim to being the Best Quarterback Alive. 2011 was also the year that his love of photobombing the team captain picture before every game fully came to light. We at Someone Still Loves You, Alberto Riveron laughed along with the rest of America…until we took a second look at some of the most famous photos in history and realized Mr. Rodgers may have been up to these shenanigans for much longer than we thought…

Random thoughts

Here’s a list of all the teams that have allowed over 6000 yards in a season. As you can see, the 2011 Packers rank fairly high; only the probable worst defense of all-time (the 1981 Colts) gave up more yards in a season. How did these teams fare defensively the next season? The good news for Packers fans is virtually all of them had noticeable improvements the next year (except the truly putrid ’07-08 Lions defense); the bad news is most of them still ranked poorly overall. On average, the teams that have given up 6000 or more yards in one season went on to allow between 1 and 2 points more per game than an average defense…The biggest reasons for the Packers’ collapse on D was the loss of Pro Bowl safety Nick Collins in Week 2 (the Packers released him in the offseason) and no pass-rushing outside of Clay Matthews III. The Packers are trying to fix the former by converting Charles Woodson to safety and the latter by drafting USC defensive end Nick Perry in the first round…And, yes, you are looking at the correct years for the Packers’ Adjusted Pythagorean records at the top of the page. The 2010 Packers were much stronger overall but had horrible luck in close games; the 2011 Packers had one of the best passing offenses of all-time but little else and had outstanding luck in close games…

 

Outlook

The Packers defense may end up being the biggest X-factor in the NFL in 2012. Assuming Aaron Rodgers stays healthy for the vast majority of the season, the Packers are going to score enough points to virtually assure themselves of making the playoffs. If the defense rebounds to the top-5 level it attained in 2009 and 2010, then this becomes a team that’s in the discussion for being the greatest of all-time. If the defense continues to give up yards at the same rate as last year but without the takeaways to offset them, then the 2012 Packers will join the likes of the ’86 Dolphins and ’08 Saints as all-offense, no-defense teams that putter around .500. As stated above, it is most likely that the defense will give up much fewer yards but remain below average in 2012. Factor in some regression to the mean for both their crazy good turnover differential (+24 in 2011) and Rodgers (safe to assume he’ll continue to put up MVP numbers, but having two seasons in a row that would rank among the top five all-time is probably too tough even for him) and you get a projection that may strike some readers as a little low. To emphasize here, though: the Packers almost certainly will make the playoffs and they almost certainly will give their playoff opponents insomnia.

2012 Projected Point Differential: 455.2-370.7

2012 Average Projection: 9.9-6.1 (2^nd in NFC North)