Week 12 Predictive Yards per Play Rankings

Busy week offline for me, so this will mostly just be a data dump. One important thing to note: Denver’s win over Kansas City Sunday Night reinstalled the Broncos as slight favorites to win the AFC West and, by extension, home field advantage throughout the playoffs in Predictive Yards per Play’s eyes. Of course, the rematch at Arrowhead Stadium on Thanksgiving Weekend will ultimately be the deciding factor.

Offensive Predictive Yards per Play Rankings, through Week 11:

Rank	Team	Yards	Plays	Passing TDs	INTs	Rushing TDs	Fumbles	SOS	Predictive Yards per Play
1	San Diego Chargers	3994	655	19	8	4	7	-0.26	6.78
2	New Orleans Saints	4191	680	26	8	7	9	0.05	6.61
3	Green Bay Packers	4174	657	16	10	9	13	0.10	6.54
4	Denver Broncos	4555	717	34	6	13	21	-0.30	5.79
5	Atlanta Falcons	3475	616	18	12	4	11	0.38	5.79
6	Detroit Lions	4143	690	21	8	9	14	-0.16	5.72
7	Indianapolis Colts	3499	637	14	7	11	6	0.09	5.66
8	Philadelphia Eagles	4536	719	21	7	10	14	-0.18	5.63
9	Carolina Panthers	3212	642	16	8	10	10	0.23	5.55
10	Chicago Bears	3673	629	18	8	8	10	-0.06	5.50
11	Seattle Seahawks	3943	673	20	6	11	20	-0.02	5.39
12	New England Patriots	3640	700	14	7	11	13	0.15	5.20
13	Houston Texans	3780	707	16	12	2	14	0.27	5.20
14	Washington Redskins	4121	710	14	12	12	17	-0.67	4.94
15	Pittsburgh Steelers	3432	648	17	10	4	12	0.13	4.88
16	Cincinnati Bengals	4010	756	21	15	7	15	0.12	4.79
17	Dallas Cowboys	3278	591	21	6	6	11	-0.26	4.67
18	Tennessee Titans	3246	623	13	8	10	17	0.08	4.65
19	San Francisco 49ers	3090	592	11	7	15	13	0.18	4.60
20	St. Louis Rams	3165	634	17	6	3	15	0.05	4.51
21	Kansas City Chiefs	3200	669	11	4	7	11	0.03	4.47
22	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	3108	656	14	7	4	12	-0.04	4.46
23	Minnesota Vikings	3177	608	10	13	14	15	-0.03	4.38
24	Cleveland Browns	3181	678	17	12	1	10	0.15	4.36
25	Buffalo Bills	3642	774	12	9	9	20	0.35	4.33
26	Arizona Cardinals	3264	623	14	15	7	16	0.11	4.16
27	Miami Dolphins	3078	621	14	11	7	10	-0.11	4.16
28	Baltimore Ravens	3085	687	13	13	6	11	0.15	4.04
29	New York Jets	3248	647	9	16	6	12	0.02	4.00
30	Oakland Raiders	3318	637	10	11	10	15	-0.26	3.92
31	Jacksonville Jaguars	2780	627	5	16	6	12	0.19	3.55
32	New York Giants	3207	632	12	18	7	15	-0.40	3.51

Defensive Predictive Yards per Play Rankings, through Week 11:

Rank	Team	Yards	Plays	Passing TDs	INTs	Rushing TDs	Fumbles	SOS	Predictive Yards per Play
1	Arizona Cardinals	3249	674	18	14	4	12	0.23	3.88
2	San Francisco 49ers	3238	654	11	11	9	16	0.26	3.92
3	Seattle Seahawks	3226	697	12	16	4	23	-0.11	3.93
4	New York Jets	3240	653	19	5	6	15	0.11	4.21
5	New York Giants	3361	667	14	11	7	15	0.24	4.24
6	Cincinnati Bengals	3444	745	14	12	4	12	-0.15	4.29
7	Baltimore Ravens	3399	661	17	7	1	16	-0.01	4.30
8	Cleveland Browns	3065	689	16	8	9	9	-0.17	4.33
9	Houston Texans	2861	579	18	4	7	10	-0.05	4.38
10	Kansas City Chiefs	3369	651	10	12	4	16	-0.30	4.39
11	Carolina Panthers	2940	596	8	14	3	14	-0.25	4.43
12	Tennessee Titans	3302	637	7	8	15	15	-0.03	4.53
13	Oakland Raiders	3503	643	19	7	7	19	0.09	4.61
14	New Orleans Saints	3054	586	11	10	8	12	-0.27	4.63
15	Buffalo Bills	3826	752	22	16	4	10	-0.19	4.66
16	St. Louis Rams	3518	614	15	11	11	17	0.05	4.81
17	Miami Dolphins	3649	695	11	13	10	9	0.28	4.82
18	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	3417	630	19	11	5	9	0.29	4.90
19	Denver Broncos	3718	683	18	13	9	12	-0.15	4.93
20	New England Patriots	3549	697	16	12	4	12	-0.10	4.95
21	Pittsburgh Steelers	3408	638	12	6	13	11	-0.25	5.21
22	Chicago Bears	3730	632	15	14	11	19	0.15	5.22
23	Detroit Lions	3784	642	19	11	5	10	-0.04	5.25
24	Jacksonville Jaguars	3916	664	20	4	15	19	0.10	5.33
25	Washington Redskins	3899	637	19	10	15	7	0.44	5.38
26	Indianapolis Colts	3650	625	14	8	8	13	-0.02	5.56
27	Philadelphia Eagles	4597	824	17	13	7	15	-0.06	5.65
28	Minnesota Vikings	3917	697	23	8	11	12	0.14	5.86
29	Green Bay Packers	3509	621	18	4	8	9	-0.18	5.94
30	Dallas Cowboys	4398	710	20	12	11	13	0.26	5.96
31	Atlanta Falcons	3819	633	21	6	8	7	-0.08	6.53
32	San Diego Chargers	3890	609	15	5	7	9	-0.07	6.77

Predictive Yards per Play Differential, through Week 11:

Rank	Team	PY/P Diff.	Remaining SOS	Projected Wins
1	New Orleans Saints	1.98	7.98	12.29
2	Seattle Seahawks	1.46	6.34	13.27
3	Carolina Panthers	1.12	7.64	10.48
4	Denver Broncos	0.87	4.93	12.74
5	Houston Texans	0.82	-14.42	5.71
6	San Francisco 49ers	0.68	-7.83	9.70
7	Green Bay Packers	0.60	-17.88	8.36
8	Cincinnati Bengals	0.50	-16.10	10.14
9	Detroit Lions	0.47	-23.03	9.80
10	Chicago Bears	0.28	-13.43	9.34
11	Arizona Cardinals	0.28	1.87	9.28
12	New England Patriots	0.25	0.04	10.17
13	Tennessee Titans	0.12	-2.04	7.05
14	Indianapolis Colts	0.09	-3.48	9.64
15	Kansas City Chiefs	0.07	-2.35	12.14
16	Cleveland Browns	0.03	-11.28	7.12
17	San Diego Chargers	0.02	-4.80	7.25
18	Philadelphia Eagles	-0.02	-15.31	8.74
19	New York Jets	-0.21	-8.92	7.83
20	Baltimore Ravens	-0.26	-11.30	7.07
21	St. Louis Rams	-0.30	16.84	5.96
22	Pittsburgh Steelers	-0.33	-5.21	7.08
23	Buffalo Bills	-0.33	-21.77	6.77
24	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	-0.44	18.84	3.81
25	Washington Redskins	-0.45	-21.82	6.01
26	Miami Dolphins	-0.67	-1.34	7.42
27	Oakland Raiders	-0.70	-0.36	6.21
28	New York Giants	-0.73	-4.45	6.32
29	Atlanta Falcons	-0.74	11.68	4.07
30	Dallas Cowboys	-1.29	-12.84	7.47
31	Minnesota Vikings	-1.48	1.43	3.75
32	Jacksonville Jaguars	-1.78	-2.10	2.34

Projected AFC Playoff Picture, through Week 11:

1. Denver (12.7 wins)
2. New England (10.2 wins)
3. Cincinnati (10.1 wins)
4. Indianapolis (9.6 wins)
5. Kansas City (12.1 wins)
6. NY Jets (7.8 wins)

In the hunt: Miami (7.4 wins), San Diego (7.3 wins), Cleveland (7.1 wins), Pittsburgh (7.1 wins), Baltimore (7.1 wins), Tennessee (7.1 wins), Buffalo (6.8 wins), Oakland (6.2 wins)

Mediocre: Houston (5.7 wins)

Teddy Bridgewater Sweepstakes: Jacksonville (2.3 wins)

Projected NFC Playoff Picture, through Week 11:

1. Seattle (13.3 wins)
2. New Orleans (12.3 wins)
3. Detroit (9.8 wins)
4. Philadelphia (8.7 wins)
5. Carolina (10.5 wins)
6. San Francisco (9.7 wins)

In the hunt: Chicago (9.3 wins), Arizona (9.3 wins), Green Bay (8.4 wins), Dallas (7.5 wins)

Mediocre: NY Giants (6.3 wins), Washington (6.0 wins), St. Louis (6.0 wins)

Teddy Bridgewater Sweepstakes: Atlanta (4.1 wins), Tampa Bay (3.8 wins), Minnesota (3.8 wins)