QB Charting, Week 3: Giants-Panthers

New York Giants

Eli Manning: Week 3, at Carolina.

Passing Breakdown

	Comp.	Att.	Yards	Sacks	Sck Yards	TDs	INTs	ANY/A
Dropback	10	18	106	5	30	0	1	1.35
Play-Action	0	2	0	2	15	0	0	-3.75
Screen	2	3	13	0	0	0	0	4.33
Designed Rollout	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00
Total	12	23	119	7	45	0	1	0.97

Rushing/Miscellaneous Stats

	Scrambles	Yards	Fumbles	Penalties	Drops	Inaccurate throws
Dropback	1	14	0	0	3	3
Play-Action	0	0	0	0	1	1
Screen	0	0	0	0	0	0
Designed Rollout	0	0	0	0	0	0
Total	1	14	0	0	4	4

Curtis Painter: Week 3, at Carolina.

Passing Breakdown

	Comp.	Att.	Yards	Sacks	Sck Yards	TDs	INTs	ANY/A
Dropback	2	4	16	0	0	0	1	-7.25
Play-Action	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00
Screen	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00
Designed Rollout	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00
Total	2	4	16	0	0	0	1	-7.25

Rushing/Miscellaneous Stats

	Scrambles	Yards	Fumbles	Penalties	Drops	Inaccurate throws
Dropback	0	0	0	1, 2 yards	0	1
Play-Action	0	0	0	0	0	0
Screen	0	0	0	0	0	0
Designed Rollout	0	0	0	0	0	0
Total	0	0	0	1, 2 yards	0	1

Most of the time when a quarterback gets sacked seven times in a game (and six times in one half), it means that the quarterback is holding on to the ball too long or scrambling into the pressure or some other exhibit of poor pocket presence that makes his offensive line’s job ten times harder. And Eli’s mobility, or lack thereof, certainly wasn’t any help to a beleaguered Giants offensive line that didn’t seem to remember that games could begin in the early afternoon. On the other hand, though, Eli’s been slow as Fuddrucker forever and yet his brother’s the only quarterback who’s been conclusively better at avoiding sacks than him over the past three years. So what was going on Sunday that made one of the hardest quarterbacks to sack in the league suddenly sackable?

Four simple words adequately describe the Giants’ problems Sunday: pressure up the middle. Charles Johnson and Greg Hardy were racing around the edges all day long on Will Beatty and Justin Pugh, but that doesn’t normally bother Eli – he knows the right way to avoid edge rushers is to step up in the pocket and let them race by him. Except Sunday, whenever he tried to do that, Star Lotulelei or Kawann Short would be pushing one of the Giants guards back into Eli’s face, giving no room to sidestep the edge rush and thus making him a sitting duck. It was exactly the sort of performance the Panthers undoubtedly dreamed about when they drafted Lotulelei and Short in the first two rounds this year and would make the team a very scary matchup for opponents if it weren’t for the fact that they’re not remotely capable of winning a close game.

Three of Eli’s inaccurate throws, meanwhile, came during his final drive when he said to himself, “Bleep it, we’re down 38, I’m throwing the ball downfield and seeing what happens.” He misread zone coverage for man on his lone interception by Melvin White, but otherwise was actually pretty good when he had a chance to throw the ball. It’s hard to see the light at the end of the tunnel after getting shut out, turning the ball over three times and gaining only 150 yards on offense, but the Giants aren’t going to get dominated at the line of scrimmage this badly again and really should be fine offensively the rest of the season. The defense may be another story entirely.

Carolina Panthers

Cam Newton: Week 3, vs. NY Giants.

Passing Breakdown

	Comp.	Att.	Yards	Sacks	Sck Yards	TDs	INTs	ANY/A
Dropback	10	20	128	1	15	2	1	5.14
Play-Action	5	7	97	0	0	1	0	16.71
Screen	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00
Designed Rollout	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00
Total	15	27	225	1	15	3	1	8.04

Rushing/Miscellaneous Stats

	Scrambles	Yards	Fumbles	Penalties	Drops	Inaccurate throws
Dropback	1	14	0	0	2	4
Play-Action	0	0	0	0	0	1
Screen	0	0	0	0	0	0
Designed Rollout	0	0	0	0	0	0
Total	1	14	0	0	2	5

Cam had a remarkable small sample size second half, going for five-for-five for 111 yards and two touchdowns while rushing for another. That performance after halftime took the spotlight off a shaky first half throwing the ball, where he had five inaccurate throws, took a fifteen-yard sack and tossed an interception on a deep out route where (oddly enough) he didn’t get enough velocity on his throw.

More distressingly, he appears to be standing even more rigidly and upright than ever before when he sets up to throw and hasn’t progressed mechanically the way you’d hope would after a legitimately great rookie season. He’s probably going to be one of the most dangerous short-yardage backs in the league until he retires, so his prowess as a runner definitely makes him an above-average quarterback overall. He certainly hasn’t scratched the ceiling on his potential as a passer, though, and so far 2013 hasn’t looked like the year he’s going to do it, either.

QB Charting, Week 2: Broncos-Giants

Denver Broncos

Peyton Manning: Week 2, at NY Giants.

Passing Breakdown

	Comp.	Att.	Yards	Sacks	Sck Yards	TDs	INTs	ANY/A
Dropback	17	27	152	0	0	1	0	6.37
Play-Action	10	12	131	0	0	1	0	12.58
Screen	3	4	25	0	0	0	0	6.25
Designed Rollout	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00
Total	30	43	308	0	0	2	0	8.09

Rushing/Miscellaneous Stats

	Scrambles	Yards	Fumbles	Penalties	Drops	Inaccurate throws
Dropback	0	0	0	0	5	1
Play-Action	0	0	0	0	0	1
Screen	0	0	0	0	1	0
Designed Rollout	0	0	0	0	0	0
Total	0	0	0	0	6	2

Here’s the terrifying thing about the Broncos offense through the first two games of the season: they haven’t played a really crisp game yet. In the opener against Baltimore, Manning threw (by my count) six inaccurate passes that led to incompletions and Broncos receivers dropped four more passes. Yesterday against the Giants, six more Forehead passes were dropped, mainly in a sloppy first half that had Denver clinging to a 10-9 lead at halftime.

And yet, through two games, the Broncos have scored 90 points and 11 offensive touchdowns. Yesterday afternoon, they scored four touchdowns against the Giants without having a monster game from any of their receivers – Eric Decker led the team with 87 yards but needed 13 targets to get there. The two Thomases (Demaryius and Julius) had solid but unspectacular games. Welker had nearly as many drops as catches. Here’s my point: if the Broncos can average 5.5 touchdowns a game when their offense is playing at a (relative) B+ level, what’s going to happen when they eventually put everything together? Lord have mercy on Oakland and Philadelphia’s defenses the next two weeks.

New York Giants

Eli Manning: Week 2, vs. Denver.

Passing Breakdown

	Comp.	Att.	Yards	Sacks	Sck Yards	TDs	INTs	ANY/A
Dropback	25	43	297	1	9	1	4	2.96
Play-Action	2	5	65	0	0	0	0	13.00
Screen	1	1	-1	0	0	0	0	-1.00
Designed Rollout	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00
Total	28	49	361	1	9	1	4	3.84

Rushing/Miscellaneous Stats

	Scrambles	Yards	Fumbles	Penalties	Drops	Inaccurate throws
Dropback	0	0	0	7, 100 yards	4	5
Play-Action	0	0	0	0	1	0
Screen	0	0	0	0	0	0
Designed Rollout	0	0	0	0	0	0
Total	0	0	0	7, 100 yards	5	5

Of Eli’s four interceptions, only one was truly worrisome – the first, where he forced the ball into triple coverage in the end zone at the end of the first half when the Giants were already in field goal range. That was a terrible decision. The three picks in the fourth quarter were either the result of truly horrible luck (the Chris Harris interception that bounced off Tony Carter’s arm and leg first), being forced to try a desperation throw because of the lopsided score (Rahim Moore’s pick on the 4th-and-10 Hail Mary that does not wipe away any memories of Jacoby Jones in January) or a miscommunication with his receiver (Carter’s interception at the end of the game). The last circumstance is an endemic flaw of any system so predicated on option routes and is just going to happen every once in a while as long Kevin Gilbride wants to Run-‘n-Shoot.

Here’s a big positive for Eli after a disappointing 0-2 start: going into the Monday Night game, he ranked 4th in the league in Net Yards per Attempt behind only Vick, Rodgers and his brother. And that’s not including the even 100 yards Giants receivers drew from various penalties Sunday, either. The Giants moved the ball at will against the Cowboys and they had quite a bit of success moving the ball against the Broncos. They’re not going to turn the ball over five times a game for the rest of the season and nobody in the NFC East (outside of maybe the Eagles) seems remotely capable of running away with the division. Everybody settle down, there’s 14 games to go.

QB Charting, Week 1: Giants-Cowboys

 

New York Giants

Eli Manning: Week 1, at Dallas.

Passing Breakdown

	Comp.	Att.	Yards	Sacks	Sck Yards	TDs	INTs	ANY/A
Dropback	21	33	315	2	12	4	2	8.37
Play-Action	5	8	127	1	10	0	1	8.00
Screen	1	1	8	0	0	0	0	8.00
Designed Rollout	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00
Total	27	42	450	3	22	4	3	8.29

Rushing/Miscellaneous Stats

	Scrambles	Yards	Fumbles	Penalties	Drops	Inaccurate throws
Dropback	1	9	0	0	1	3
Play-Action	0	0	0	0	1	0
Screen	0	0	0	0	0	0
Designed Rollout	0	0	0	0	0	0
Total	1	9	0	0	2	3

As you might recall, Eli wasn’t particularly happy with Da’Rel Scott for not turning his head around in time to see Eli’s dump off pass scoot right by him and into the arms of Brandon Carr for the game-clinching pick-six for the Cowboys. It was the perfect way to end an incredibly frustrating night for the Giants, who alternately shredded the new Monte Kiffin-led defense and handed the ball over on a silver platter. Whether that last interception intended for Scott was really Eli’s fault is open for debate; that the first two interceptions were undoubtedly his fault is not. Eli started out the game by noticing DeMarcus Ware was standing directly in front of his intended screen target and then decided to throw the ball anyway because DeMarcus Ware can’t possibly catch too, right? Unfortunate assumption, Eli! His second pick was way overthrown and off the mark, intended for Hakeem Nicks down the left sideline and instead an easy catch for Cowboys safety Will Allen.

And those are only half of the turnovers the Giants committed Sunday night! When they weren’t shooting themselves in the foot over and over again, however, the Giants were cruising (or, perhaps more accurately, Cruz-ing) up and down the field at will. Eli found Cruz and Nicks for a number of big plays that the Cowboys safeties egregiously misplayed (when has that ever happened before?!) and also had success throwing to his new tight end, Brandon Myers. Truthfully, as long as the Giants find a running back who locate a football and then hang on to it, they’re going to be good as usual on offense this year. Keep in mind that the Run-n-Shoot option routes that offensive coordinator Kevin Gilbride likes to run will lead to its fair shair of miscommunications between Eli and his receivers over the course of the season, however.

Dallas Cowboys

Tony Romo: Week 1, vs NY Giants.

Passing Breakdown

	Comp.	Att.	Yards	Sacks	Sck Yards	TDs	INTs	ANY/A
Dropback	30	39	237	1	11	2	1	5.53
Play-Action	2	6	19	1	8	0	0	1.57
Screen	3	3	5	0	0	0	0	1.67
Designed Rollout	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00
Total	35	48	261	2	19	2	1	4.74

Rushing/Miscellaneous Stats

	Scrambles	Yards	Fumbles	Penalties	Drops	Inaccurate throws
Dropback	0	0	0	1, 7 yards	0	5
Play-Action	0	0	0	0	0	2
Screen	0	0	0	0	0	0
Designed Rollout	0	0	0	0	0	0
Total	0	0	0	1, 7 yards	0	7

Romo’s interception was the result of a miscommunication with rookie wide receiver Terrence Williams – Williams ran a double move when Romo expected him to stick with his slant pattern and the result was a near pick-six. Romo wound up completing nearly 75% of his passes, but the Cowboys offense still looked unimpressive when all was said and done. Romo missed several other throws that would have boosted his completion percentage even more and none of his receivers were able to get extra yards after the catch for him all night. Whether that had more to do with an improved Giants secondary or a declining supporting cast of Cowboy receivers is a question that’ll be answered after more games have been played. Judging solely from Sunday night’s game, I’d bet more on the latter explanation.

Neither team looked good Sunday night. The Giants were able to move the ball consistently but were extraordinarily sloppy on offense and let the Cowboys dink and dunk their way to first downs up and down the field all night. On the other side, Dallas won the turnover battle 6-1, scored two defensive touchdowns and still only won by four at home. The NFC East hardly looks like a beast this year, but it certainly didn’t look like either team was headed for a run to the playoffs.

Player Who Was Better Than His Stats Would Indicate

Miles Austin. He only gained 72 yards on ten catches, but only had two incompletions tossed his way and generally gained tough, contested yards.

Player Who Was Worse Than His Stats Would Indicate

Will Allen, who had a pick off Eli but got otherwise torched all evening (most notably on Victor Cruz’s 70-yard touchdown catch in the second quarter).

The Complete 2013 NFL Schedule Breakdown

Before last night at 8:00 P.M. Eastern time, every team in the NFL knew who they were playing next season but didn’t know when. Now the when has been provided and, along with it, the networks that will be carrying those games. The most interesting part of the schedule reveal, to me, is seeing which teams snag the high-profile Sunday Night, Monday Night and late Sunday afternoon time slots. The number of nationally televised games a team gets in a season is usually a pretty good litmus test for their current popularity and national appeal. Hence, I’m going to analyze this year’s schedule from the prime-time angle, ranking each network’s games according to how much pee got lodged in my pants just thinking about it. Let us begin.

NBC Sunday Night Football

1. Broncos at Colts (Week 7 – October 20th)
2. Broncos at Patriots (Week 12 – November 24th)
3. Ravens at Broncos (Week 1 – September 5th)
4. Patriots at Falcons (Week 4 – September 29th)
5. 49ers at Seahawks (Week 2 – September 15th)
6. Redskins at Cowboys (Week 6 – October 13th)
7. Giants at Redskins (Week 13 – December 1st)
8. Patriots at Ravens (Week 16 – December 22nd)
9. Giants at Cowboys (Week 1 – September 8th)
10. Packers at Giants (Week 11 – November 17th)
11. Steelers at Ravens (Week 13 – November 28th)
12. Falcons at Packers (Week 14 – December 8th)
13. Cowboys at Saints (Week 10 – November 10th)
14. Bears at Steelers (Week 3 – September 22nd)
15. Packers at Vikings (Week 8 – October 27th)
16. Texans at 49ers (Week 5 – October 6th)
17. Colts at Texans (Week 9 – November 3rd)
18. Bengals at Steelers (Week 15 – December 15th)

First of all, I’d just like to get a WHAT-WHAT for getting exceedingly lucky and actually correctly projecting 12 of these games. Does this mean I have an extreme and sick obsession with the NFL schedule that goes well behind healthy fascination? Yes. Yes, it does. Anyway, NBC has to be ecstatic with the three Broncos games they got handed by the NFL: they get the rematch of the classic Ravens-Broncos double overtime game from last year as the season opener, they get Manning vs. Brady for the first time since 2009, and (most importantly) they get Peyton Manning’s return to Indianapolis. Which is only going to be the single biggest game of the 2013 regular season. No biggie. As you’ll see below, this season’s overall SNF slate technically appears worse on paper than the last two years if we’re framing the question according to previous seasons’ win percentage. On the other hand, though, there’s no weak link game I’m seeing in that schedule this year that’s shown up in years past (Ex.: 2010 – Chargers/Bengals, 2012 – Chargers/Jets, etc.). Cincinnati vs. Pittsburgh in Week 15 is probably the game I’m least excited for and even that could be a hugely important game in terms of the AFC playoff picture. In summary: Al Michaels is probably doing backflips right now. At least I hope he is, for comedy’s sake.

Combined Previous Season Win Percentage:

1. 2008 (344-168, .6719)
2. 2012 (378-198, .6563)
3. 2011 (356-188, .6544)
4. 2013 (375-199-2, .6528)
5. 2009 (332-177-3, .6514)
6. 2006 (207-113, .6469)
7. 2010 (346-198, .6360)
8. 2007 (335-209, .6158)

FOX National Doubleheaders

1. Packers at 49ers (Week 1 – September 8th)
2. Redskins at Broncos (Week 8 – October 27th)
3. Saints at Patriots (Week 6 – October 13th)
4. Cowboys at Giants (Week 12 – November 24th)
5. Seahawks at 49ers (Week 14 – December 8th)
6. Packers at Cowboys (Week 15 – December 15th)
7. Packers at Lions (Week 13 – November 28th)
8. 49ers at Saints (Week 11 – November 17th)
9. Eagles at Broncos/Cowboys at Chargers (Week 4 – September 29th)

My guess is Philadelphia at Denver is going to be the featured doubleheader game in Week 4 for FOX, but Dallas has the highest national appeal of any team in the league, so I’m listing those two games as co-headliners for September 29th. Frankly, I’m a bit disappointed that Packers/49ers is coming in Week 1 again – imagine that game coming in late November or December and potentially deciding home field advantage in the NFC. Oh well. Kudos to the NFL, though, for putting the Drew Brees vs. Tom Brady matchup in a high-profile time slot in Week 6.

CBS National Doubleheaders

1. Broncos at Giants (Week 2 – September 15th)
2. Steelers at Packers (Week 16 – December 22nd)
3. Patriots at Texans (Week 13 – December 1st)
4. Broncos at Cowboys (Week 5 – October 6th)
5. Colts at 49ers (Week 3 – September 22nd)
6. Steelers at Patriots (Week 9 – November 3rd)
7. Ravens at Steelers (Week 7 – October 20th)
8. Broncos at Chargers (Week 10 – November 10th)
9. Raiders at Cowboys (Week 13 – November 28th)

The biggest shocker of the whole schedule is that Oakland, and not Denver, will be the Cowboys’ Thanksgiving Day opponent. OAKLAND. As in, the team that went 4-12 last year and may actually be getting worse as the offseason progresses. Aside from that and possibly Broncos/Chargers, though, this slate of games is pretty bulletproof. CBS is the first network other than NBC to get the Peyton/Eli matchup and they also get the Andrew Luck-Jim Harbaugh Reunion Special in Week 3 and the first Steelers-Packers game since Super Bowl XLV the second-to-last week of the season. Overall, you’d have to say they got a better lineup than FOX – which, given FOX’s TV rights to the huge market teams of the NFC, is a pretty big deal.

ESPN Monday Night Football

1. Falcons at 49ers (Week 16 – December 23rd)
2. 49ers at Redskins (Week 12 – November 25th)
3. Bears at Packers (Week 9 – November 4th)
4. Saints at Seahawks (Week 13 – December 2nd)
5. Eagles at Redskins (Week 1 – September 9th)
6. Steelers at Bengals (Week 2 – September 16th)
7. Cowboys at Bears (Week 14 – December 9th)
8. Patriots at Panthers (Week 11 – November 18th)
9. Vikings at Giants (Week 7 – October 21st)
10. Seahawks at Rams (Week 8 – October 28th)
11. Texans at Chargers (Week 1 – September 9th)
12. Raiders at Broncos (Week 3 – September 23rd)
13. Dolphins at Saints (Week 4 – September 30th)
14. Ravens at Lions (Week 15 – December 16th)
15. Colts at Chargers (Week 6 – October 14th)
16. Dolphins at Buccaneers (Week 10 – November 11th)
17. Jets at Falcons (Week 5 – October 7th)

Tough to find a much more hit-or-miss lineup than this. On the one hand, you’ve got a host of weird AFC East-at-NFC South matchups that don’t really have any rivalry factor built in and the potential for complete unmitigated disasters when the Jets play at Atlanta and the Raiders go to Denver. On the other hand, scoring the NFC Championship Game rematch (which could double up as the last game ever played at Candlestick Park) is one of the biggest coups ESPN’s ever scored in its NFL package and 49ers-Redskins and Bears-Packers are big wins for the network, too. In other words: get ready for long swaths of time where you’re not going to care about Monday Night Football this fall with occasional interruptions for great games.

Combined Previous Season Win Percentage:

1. 2010 (320-224, .5882)
2. 2012 (315-229, .5790)
3. 2011 (311-233, .5717)
4. 2009 (310-233-1, .5708)
5. 2013 (305-236-3, .5634)
6. 2007 (306-238, .5625)
7. 2008 (306-238, .5625)
8. 2006 (301-243, .5533)

NFL Network Thursday Night Football

1. Chiefs at Eagles (Week 3 – September 19th)
2. Giants at Bears (Week 6 – October 10th)
3. Saints at Falcons (Week 12 – November 21st)
4. Redskins at Vikings (Week 10 – November 7th)
5. Panthers at Buccaneers (Week 8 – October 24th)
6. Jets at Patriots (Week 2 – September 12th)
7. 49ers at Rams (Week 4 – September 26th)
8. Chargers at Broncos (Week 15 – December 12th)
9. Bengals at Dolphins (Week 9 – October 31st)
10. Seahawks at Cardinals (Week 7 – October 17th)
11. Colts at Titans (Week 11 – November 14th)
12. Texans at Jaguars (Week 14 – December 5th)
13. Bills at Browns (Week 5 – October 3rd)

The NFL’s requirement that every team has to play a Thursday night game obviously drags down the lineup’s quality somewhat (try to find a less appealing game anywhere on the schedule than Bills at Browns), but there are some winners on here – foremost among them, Andy Reid’s return to Philadelphia, which is the perfect type of game for the NFL Network. It’s a high-profile storyline that demands a national stage…but at the same time, you’d feel pretty weird about having two teams that combined for six wins the year before playing on Sunday or Monday night. Overall, the bottom five games on this slate are pretty iffy, but I can get behind any of the top eight.

Team-by-Team Breakdown of Nationally Televised Games

9.5*: Dallas, Denver

9: Green Bay, San Francisco

8: New England, Pittsburgh

7: NY Giants

6: New Orleans, Washington

5: Atlanta, Baltimore, Houston, Indianapolis, Seattle

4: Chicago

3.5*: San Diego

3: Cincinnati, Miami, Minnesota

2.5*: Philadelphia

2: Carolina, Detroit, NY Jets, Oakland, St. Louis, Tampa Bay

1: Arizona, Buffalo, Cleveland, Jacksonville, Kansas City, Tennessee

* – asterisk denotes the uncertainty of FOX’s Week 4 doubleheader matchup

The biggest thing to note from this breakdown, I think, is the relatively low number of nationally televised games the Super Bowl champion Ravens are playing. They haven’t been given the max of five prime-time games and their Week 7 rivalry game against the Steelers is the only national doubleheader game they’re currently scheduled for. WHERE’S THE RESPECT? Other than that, the breakdown kind of goes how you’d expect – the Cowboys, Giants and Steelers will always get a huge number of high-profile games as long as they’re in the vicinity of being decent. The only other weird things standing out to me: Miami and San Diego both getting two Monday Night games and the Saints having more nationally televised games than seven playoff teams from last season.

Best Games That Won’t Be Nationally Televised

1. Seahawks at Falcons (Week 10 – November 10th)
2. Packers at Ravens (Week 6 – October 13th)
3. Cowboys at Redskins (Week 16 – December 22nd)*
4. Falcons at Saints (Week 1 – September 8th)
5. Broncos at Texans (Week 16 – December 22nd)*
6. Redskins at Falcons (Week 15 – December 15th)*
7. Redskins at Packers (Week 2 – September 15th)
8. Texans at Ravens (Week 3 – September 22nd)
9. Seahawks at Texans (Week 4 – September 29th)
10. Seahawks at Giants (Week 15 – December 15th)*

* – asterisk denotes game falls during the league’s flexible schedule procedures and could get moved to a higher-profile time slot

The Ravens-Broncos divisional playoff game last year WAS great, but to me the Seahawks-Falcons game that followed the next day may have been even better. Unfortunately, the rematch of that game falls alongside seven other games in the early afternoon window of Week 10 – if you don’t the Sunday Ticket package, you’re probably S.O.L., buddy. In general, the Seahawks, Falcons, and Redskins were all among the most exciting teams to watch last season and…well, let’s just say I wouldn’t have minded a few more quality hours to spend with them this fall.

Predictive Yards Per Play Rankings: 2011

We’re only four days into the offseason, but it seems like it’s been four hundred. When the biggest news swirling out of the NFL rumor mill right now is the Giants cutting Ahmad Bradshaw and Joe Flacco angling for the largest contract in history (words I never, EVER expected to put in the same sentence), it might for the best if we leave unsubstantiated opinions to Mike Florio and the like and turn our attention to the past for a while. Today, SSLYAR starts its weekly series of year-by-year Predictive Yards per Play unveilings with the ratings for a time not so far removed from this one: 2011.

Before we get into the rankings, I will note that the way the numbers are presented will look a bit different from what they were presented as during the weekly power rankings in the regular season. From now on, the Predictive Yards per Play metric will look like the old Adjusted Yards per Play rankings did, with defensive numbers equal to offensive and league average representing 0.00. Nothing has changed about the formulas used to derive these figures; the conversion has been made simply for ease of use and there’s two reasons why this should be easier to follow now.

First, creating a baseline where the average is 0.00 makes it much easier to determine if a team is good or bad; if their differential is positive, they’re obviously above-average and if it’s negative, they’re obviously below-average. And secondly, putting the defensive stats on equal footing with the offensive stats makes it MUCH easier to calculate how many points we can expect a team’s offense and defense to generate. Taking the 2011 Packers as an example, they averaged 6.17 Predictive Yards per Play offensively. Since every fourteen yards gained equals roughly one point and teams will generally run about 64 plays from scrimmage in a given game, we can determine the expected points the 2011 Packers offense could be expected to generate in one game just by themselves by multiplying 6.17 by 64 and then dividing that number by 14 (the answer is 28.21, by the way). Or if you wanted an even speedier shortcut, you could just multiply a team’s Predictive Yards per Play by 4.5 and get roughly the same answer.

Alright, enough preamble. Let’s see how each team stacked up in 2011…

Predictive Yards per Play Differential (league average: 0.00): a metric which  uses probabilities drawn from research Brian Burke did back in 2008 in trying to determine which stats best correlated with future play.

1. New Orleans Saints (13-3): 1.29 (2012 ranking: #13)
2. Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4): 1.29 (2012 ranking: #21)
3. Houston Texans (10-6): 0.96 (2012 ranking: #16)
4. Philadelphia Eagles (8-8): 0.85 (2012 ranking: #22)
5. Detroit Lions (10-6): 0.85 (2012 ranking: #9)
6. New York Giants (9-7): 0.80 (2012 ranking: #8)
7. Baltimore Ravens (12-4): 0.79 (2012 ranking: #12)
8. Atlanta Falcons (10-6): 0.72 (2012 ranking: #17)
9. San Francisco 49ers (13-3): 0.52 (2012 ranking: #1)
10. Dallas Cowboys (8-8): 0.47 (2012 ranking: #15)
11. Green Bay Packers (15-1): 0.46 (2012 ranking: #4)
12. New England Patriots (13-3): 0.37 (2012 ranking: #5)
13. Carolina Panthers (6-10): 0.24 (2012 ranking: #6)
14. San Diego Chargers (8-8): 0.08 (2012 ranking: #28)
15. Cincinnati Bengals (9-7): -0.02 (2012 ranking: #19)
16. New York Jets (8-8): -0.04 (2012 ranking: #29)
17. Minnesota Vikings (3-13): -0.19 (2012 ranking: #11)
18. Seattle Seahawks (7-9) : -0.20 (2012 ranking: #2)
19. Washington Redskins (5-11): -0.24 (2012 ranking: #7)
20. Oakland Raiders (8-8): -0.33 (2012 ranking: #26)
21. Chicago Bears (8-8): -0.33 (2012 ranking: #14)
22. Tennessee Titans (9-7): -0.35 (2012 ranking: #25)
23. Buffalo Bills (6-10): -0.35 (2012 ranking: #20)
24. Miami Dolphins (6-10): -0.47 (2012 ranking: #23)
25. Arizona Cardinals (8-8): -0.59 (2012 ranking: #27)
26. St. Louis Rams (2-14): -0.63 (2012 ranking: #10)
27. Kansas City Chiefs (7-9): -0.65 (2012 ranking: #32)
28. Cleveland Browns (4-12): -0.71 (2012 ranking: #24)
29. Denver Broncos (8-8): -0.82 (2012 ranking: #3)
30. Jacksonville Jaguars (5-11): -1.23 (2012 ranking: #30)
31. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-12): -1.29 (2012 ranking: #18)
32. Indianapolis Colts (2-14): -1.42 (2012 ranking: #31)

Offensive Predictive Yards per Play (league average: 4.96)

1. New Orleans Saints (13-3): 6.57 (2012 ranking: #1)
2. Green Bay Packers (15-1): 6.17 (2012 ranking: #7)
3. New England Patriots (13-3): 6.15 (2012 ranking: #5)
4. Carolina Panthers (6-10): 5.86 (2012 ranking: #9)
5. Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4): 5.77 (2012 ranking: #26)
6. New York Giants (9-7): 5.71 (2012 ranking: #6)
7. Philadelphia Eagles (8-8): 5.67 (2012 ranking: #23)
8. San Diego Chargers (8-8): 5.53 (2012 ranking: #29)
9. Detroit Lions (10-6): 5.51 (2012 ranking: #8)
10. Dallas Cowboys (8-8): 5.45 (2012 ranking: #10)
11. Houston Texans (10-6): 5.43 (2012 ranking: #18)
12. Oakland Raiders (8-8): 5.34 (2012 ranking: #19)
13. Atlanta Falcons (10-6): 5.30 (2012 ranking: #13)
14. Buffalo Bills (6-10): 5.07 (2012 ranking: #16)
15. Baltimore Ravens (12-4): 5.05 (2012 ranking: #14)
16. Cincinnati Bengals (9-7): 4.93 (2012 ranking: #20)
17. San Francisco 49ers (13-3): 4.89 (2012 ranking: #3)
18. Tennessee Titans (9-7): 4.81 (2012 ranking: #22)
19. Seattle Seahawks (7-9): 4.61 (2012 ranking: #2)
20. Arizona Cardinals (8-8): 4.58 (2012 ranking: #31)
21. Minnesota Vikings (3-13): 4.57 (2012 ranking: #15)
22. Washington Redskins (5-11): 4.42 (2012 ranking: #4)
23. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-12): 4.31 (2012 ranking: #12)
24. Miami Dolphins (6-10): 4.30 (2012 ranking: #25)
25. New York Jets (8-8): 4.25 (2012 ranking: #32)
26. Indianapolis Colts (2-14): 4.24 (2012 ranking: #24)
27. Cleveland Browns (4-12): 4.21 (2012 ranking: #27)
28. St. Louis Rams (2-14): 4.17 (2012 ranking: #17)
29. Denver Broncos (8-8): 4.10 (2012 ranking: #11)
30. Kansas City Chiefs (7-9): 4.00 (2012 ranking: #28)
31. Chicago Bears (8-8): 3.97 (2012 ranking: #21)
32. Jacksonville Jaguars (5-11): 3.40 (2012 ranking: #30)

Defensive Predictive Yards per Play (league average: 4.96)

1. Baltimore Ravens (12-4): 4.26 (2012 ranking: #12)
2. New York Jets (8-8): 4.29 (2012 ranking: #15)
3. Chicago Bears (8-8): 4.30 (2012 ranking: #1)
4. San Francisco 49ers (13-3): 4.37 (2012 ranking: #2)
5. Houston Texans (10-6): 4.47 (2012 ranking: #10)
6. Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4): 4.49 (2012 ranking: #5)
7. Atlanta Falcons (10-6): 4.58 (2012 ranking: #24)
8. Jacksonville Jaguars (5-11): 4.62 (2012 ranking: #22)
9. Kansas City Chiefs (7-9): 4.65 (2012 ranking: #29)
10. Washington Redskins (5-11): 4.65 (2012 ranking: #25)
11. Detroit Lions (10-6): 4.66 (2012 ranking: #19)
12. Minnesota Vikings (3-13): 4.76 (2012 ranking: #8)
13. Miami Dolphins (6-10): 4.76 (2012 ranking: #14)
14. St. Louis Rams (2-14): 4.80 (2012 ranking: #7)
15. Seattle Seahawks (7-9): 4.82 (2012 ranking: #3)
16. Philadelphia Eagles (8-8): 4.83 (2012 ranking: #17)
17. New York Giants (9-7): 4.91 (2012 ranking: #21)
18. Cleveland Browns (4-12): 4.92 (2012 ranking: #18)
19. Denver Broncos (8-8): 4.92 (2012 ranking: #4)
20. Cincinnati Bengals (9-7): 4.95 (2012 ranking: #13)
21. Dallas Cowboys (8-8): 4.98 (2012 ranking: #23)
22. Tennessee Titans (9-7): 5.15 (2012 ranking: #26)
23. Arizona Cardinals (8-8): 5.16 (2012 ranking: #6)
24. New Orleans Saints (13-3): 5.28 (2012 ranking: #31)
25. Buffalo Bills (6-10): 5.43 (2012 ranking: #28)
26. San Diego Chargers (8-8): 5.45 (2012 ranking: #16)
27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-12): 5.60 (2012 ranking: #27)
28. Carolina Panthers (6-10): 5.63 (2012 ranking: #9)
29. Indianapolis Colts (2-14): 5.66 (2012 ranking: #32)
30. Oakland Raiders (8-8): 5.66 (2012 ranking: #30)
31. Green Bay Packers (15-1): 5.71 (2012 ranking: #11)
32. New England Patriots (13-3): 5.78 (2012 ranking: #20)

My thoughts on the above stats…

• As I wrote on Tuesday, the Giants’ Super Bowl run doesn’t look nearly as unlikely when you’re looking at their per-play metrics (as opposed to their won-loss record and point differential, which both rank the worst of all Super Bowl champions). They ranked sixth overall in Predictive Yards per Play in 2011, mainly due to an excellent offense and a defense that looks about average once you figure in that they faced the third-hardest schedule of opposing offenses in the league. Weirdly enough, they actually ranked ahead of every team they played in the postseason, including the 15-1 Packers and 13-3 Patriots. Again, I’m not trying to make the argument that they were one of the best Super Bowl champions of all time or that they even belong in the top thirty. Simply judging from Predictive Yards per Play, it looks like the 2011 Giants (similarly to the 2010 Packers, though to a lesser extent) were a very good team that played a tough schedule and had a poor record in close gam…wait a minute. They actually went 5-3 in one-score games. Oh well, scratch that last part, they were really good, though.
• As good as the Giants were, though, it’s tough to argue they would have had much of a chance against the Saints if San Francisco hadn’t pulled off the upset in the Divisional Round. The clear best team in the NFL in 2011 was the Saints…when they were at home. In their nine home games that season (including their 45-28 win over Detroit in the playoffs), they averaged – AVERAGED – 507 yards per game and 7.35 yards per play. That’s ridiculous! They only scored fewer than 30 points at home in one game all season (curiously, against Tampa Bay, who had one of the six worst defenses in the league) and had a general aura of invincibility surrounding them at all times. Fortunately for the rest of the NFC, their opening night loss at Green Bay cost them their shot at home-field advantage; otherwise, they could have easily won their second Super Bowl title in three years.
• The Packers won their first thirteen games en route to a 15-1 record but only wind up ranking eleventh overall due to, well, everything other than their passing game. They intercepted the most passes in the league but rank second-to-last defensively anyway because defensive interceptions generally say more about the quality of the opposing offense than any repeatable skill defensively. Since the Dom Capers-led Packers defenses have always intercepted opposing offenses at above-average rates, you could make a good argument that they’re an exception to the rule. At any rate, though, giving up 6.3 yards per play defensively isn’t a great recipe for long-term success and that showed up in the playoffs. Aaron Rodgers was pretty good this year, though…
• Over in the AFC, the Steelers’ rating clearly separated themselves from the rest of the pack and pushed them into a virtual tie with New Orleans for first-place. It’s interesting to note, though, that the Texans came in at a not-too-distant third, despite missing Matt Schaub for the final six games of the season (and this at a time when Schaub was the most efficient quarterback in the league outside of the big three of Rodgers, Brady, and Brees). Allow this to be the 3,000th reminder of how much Super Bowl potential was squandered when Schaub suffered his lisfranc injury. You’re welcome, Houston!
• The only defense worse than Green Bay’s in these ratings belonged to New England, a development that caused Bill Belichick to spend roughly 37 picks in the next year’s draft on defense. Interestingly enough, they met the top-ranked defense in Baltimore in the AFC Championship game; Joe Flacco’s conventional stats came out better than Brady’s and the common refrain from the talking heads after the game was that Flacco had outplayed Brady. Well, it’s a whole lot easier to do that when you’re facing the league’s worst defense as opposed to its best, am I right? Not taking anything away from what you did this postseason, Joe…
• TEEEEEBBBBBBBBBOOOOOOOWWWWWWWW!!!!!! did not hold much sway over the Broncos’ rating, as they finished 29th both offensively and overall. I can only assume that makes their upset over the second-ranked Steelers in the Wild-Card Round one of the craziest of all time. Thanks to a slight change in quarterback, this year’s Broncos team had the biggest improvement over last year’s rating, followed closely behind by the Seahawks and 49ers. The two Pennsylvania teams, Pittsburgh and Philadelphia, had the sharpest drop-off; obviously if I had seen that coming in September, I would have thought twice about making Steelers over Eagles my Super Bowl prediction for this year. You live and learn!
• As far as the season’s individual awards are concerned…Drew Brees and Tom Brady both ended up throwing for more yards than he did, but Aaron Rodgers played as efficiently as any quarterback ever has and was the clear Most Valuable Player…The voters for Offensive Player of the Year tend to get wildly confused on a year-to-year basis on how to vote for the award. If it’s truly supposed to go to the best offensive player in a given year, then obviously Rodgers should have won this award, too. If it’s actually supposed to be a consolation trophy for the best player who didn’t win MVP, then Drew Brees, the guy who ended up winning the award, was the most deserving choice. In any event: make up your minds on how to vote for this thing, guys!…In an underwhelming year for defensive standouts, Terrell Suggs’ Defensive Player of the Year win was probably as deserving as any other pick (although it’s a worthy debate as to whether he was even the best player on his own defense that season). Simply for the sake of being a contrarian, I’d give my hypothetical vote to Justin Smith…Cam Newton won Offensive Rookie of the Year in one of the easiest decisions of the year…On the other side, Von Miller beat out Aldon Smith for Defensive Rookie of the Year in probably the hardest decision; if forced to make a choice, I probably would have chosen the former as well, however…Comeback Player of the Year is a stupid award anyway, but the 2011 choice of Matthew Stafford left me more annoyed than usual. What great performance level was Matt bouncing back to, exactly? It’s not like he was an established star before he missed basically all of 2010 – seriously, he was awful his rookie season. If you wanted to call him the Breakout Player of the Year, be my guest! Comeback Player, though? Not biting on that one. Anyway, for my fictional vote, I’m picking D’Qwell Jackson because he tackled everything in sight in 2011 and somebody on the Browns deserves to be recognized every five years…And it was a tough choice between Jim Harbaugh and Raheem Morris for Coach of the Year but, just like the voters did, I ended up leaning Harbaugh.
• Next week: 2010 – a strange and bizarre land where…wait, the two best teams in the league actually played in the Super Bowl? What’s going on here?

Pro Bowl Quick Thoughts

Scattered stats and thoughts regarding the 2013 NFL Pro Bowl (stop groaning)…

NFC 62, AFC 35

Adjusted Yards per Play: 7.34 – NFC, 3.00 – AFC

AY/P Projected Point Totals: NFC 38.80, AFC 14.36

Quick Thoughts:

1. Call me crazy or, more likely, desperate for meaningful football, but I thought most players involved with the Pro Bowl last night gave a portion of a crap and that’s all you can really ask for. Of the four major professional sports in America, football is clearly the worst-suited for the entire concept of an all-star game. For starters, it’s the sport with the greatest emphasis on team unity, so throwing together 45 or so guys together to play a game on one week’s notice is going to make The Room seem meticulously planned and well thought out by comparison. You may have also heard that football is very violent. Those rumors are true and the likelihood of the players involved going full speed and risking serious harm to their careers in an exhibition game is about as high as the likelihood of Seth MacFarlane getting asked to host the Oscars again after the trainwreck that’s forthcoming in February. And when you dial back the intensity level a thousand notches from a sport that depends on that intensity for its very basic sense of excitement, you typically get a substandard product. The MLB All-Star Game is essentially a normal baseball game, only with way more pitching changes (excluding Tony La Russa-managed games, of course) and the wide-open natures of the NBA and NHL all-star games at least encourage more showmanship and dazzling athletics displays out of their sport’s greatest stars, which is the only real point of having an All-Star game in the first place. The poor Pro Bowl is forced to rely on Tweet stations and trick kickoffs from Phil Dawson to manufacture that showmanship. Not quite the same as LeBron going airborne for a dunk, if you were to ask me.

2. So we’ve established a fact. The NFL is the greatest sport in America currently yet somehow owns the worst all-star game in America, by far. What an incredible contradiction – a contradiction that would require thousands and thousands of words for proper analysis if the Pro Bowl were really a subject worth poring thousands and thousands of words out over. It of course isn’t, so I’ll just say that despite all my misgivings about the game, I did in fact watch most of it last night and was actually moderately entertained. Much of that entertainment was supplied by Al Michaels, who spent much of the evening passively-aggressively jabbing the sheer absurdity of the whole event without ever actually saying, “The Pro Bowl is a piece of crap.” Wait a minute, he actually did say that at the end of the game. My mistake.

3. As stated at the beginning of the post, however, the players involved took Peyton Manning’s impassioned plea from earlier in the week to heart (“Look, you guys. I love Hawaii, but I’m too cheap to pay for my own vacations. If Goodell pulls the plug on this game because some of you weren’t running your Levels routes at game speed, I swear to God, I will hunt you down and I will kill you. Even you, Demariyus.”) and played a game that at least resembled the sport we all know and love. We were all treated to a series of wonderful Manning Faces from Eli, who seemed utterly stoned whenever he was on camera. Matt Schaub reminded Texans fans why they’re so enamored of him with an interception to the Falcons’ William Moore. Fellow Texan J.J. Watt bloodied up his finger real good under orders from Peyton as proof for the world that, hey, we really do care about this, guys! And for his part, Andrew Luck engaged Peyton in some of the most painfully awkward small talk ever captured on tape (for the record, Peyton believes Cooper’s children are 9, 7, and 5 years old, respectively). The magic of the Pro Bowl,everyone.

4. If you’re looking for interesting subplots to watch for during the game – and Lord knows you have to make some up to get all the way through this facsimile of a game – one reliable one is noticing how the veterans react to the youngsters making their first appearance in the game. If nothing else, you can sometimes figure out the attitudes and feelings the old guard harbor for the next generation. Last year, for example, the AFC defense couldn’t be bothered to move more than three feet at a time for most of the game, but suddenly found the energy to crank out a playoff-level pass rush once Cam  Newton entered the game. The lesson: veterans don’t like Cam Newton. This year, I thought it was interesting how often Drew Brees and Eli Manning targeted Kyle Rudolph, a guy who averaged 5.3 Yards per Target this year and looked to my eyes like an enormous stiff for most of the year. Now after seeing Rudolph get 122 yards and a touchdown on five catches yesterday, I’m wondering how much that stiff-like appearance was due simply to the odious nature of one Christian Ponder. Seems to just lend more credence to the theory that quarterbacks make receivers way more often than the other way around. Either that or I’m reading way too much into action that occurred during the Pro Bowl. Probably both.

5. J.J. Watt at wide receiver turned out to be a bit of bust – Peanut Tillman knocked the ball out of his hands on the opening series (a delightful play for my sanity’s sake, even if it’s just a meaningless exhibition) and Jason Pierre-Paul made his first impact play in three months when he outjumped Watt for an Andrew Luck lob at the end of the game. With all of that said, however, seeing J.J. on offense yesterday gave you some ideas for next season, Gary Kubiak. As Herm Edwards might say, “NO BETTER CURE FOR RED ZONE ISSUES THAN PLAYING A 6’6” DEFENSIVE LINEMAN ON OFFENSE.”

6. And, finally: yes, I will start previewing the Super Bowl tomorrow. This game can’t come fast enough.

Game of the Week: Giants vs. Redskins plus the rest of the Week 13 Preview

After the thrilling game RGIII and Eli put on back in New Jersey in Week 7, I think we all kind of expected the Giants-Redskins rivalry to return to national prominence in short order. But this quickly? The Giants own a two-game lead over the Redskins heading into their Monday night matchup in Maryland and a win there would virtually eliminate any chance the Redskins have of winning the NFC East. But did you know that the Redskins have an exciting young player who might have something to say about that? In case you haven’t heard of him, Game of the Week will bring him to your attention shortly…

Who: New York Giants vs. Washington Redskins

Where: FedEx Field, Landover, MD

When: 7:30 P.M., Monday, December 3rd

Network: ESPN (Mike Tirico, Jon Gruden, Lisa Salters)

Key Storylines:

1. His name is Robert Lee Griffin III. And he’s really freaking good. Jimmy Johnson is probably going overboard when he states on Fox’s pregame show that RGIII is his league MVP so far this year – the two frontrunners for the award right now probably have to be Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, in some order (what year is it?) – but he’s not going overboard by much. Take a look at the Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt leaders for this season. Brady and Manning have separated themselves somewhat from the pack, but RGIII is nipping at Josh Freeman’s heels for third place in those rankings. Not bad! His interception rate of 1.3% is obviously unsustainable, but even disregarding that all of his passing stats seem to indicate he’s one of the best passers in the league right now. As a rookie. And that’s before we include his 642 rushing yards and (outside) shot at a 1,000 yard season on the ground. Do you think such a player could be considered the Offensive Rookie of the Year?
2. Alas, the Redskins pass defense. You probably assume that the Redskins are among the most efficient teams in the league on offense – and you would be correct. They rank fourth in both net yards per pass attempt and yards per carry. Defensively, they’re also above average against the run, ranking fourteenth in yards per carry allowed. The Achilles’ heel of their defense – and, by extension, their team – has been their pass defense, however, which ranks 24th in net yards per pass attempt. What’s exacerbated this issue is that the Redskins have faced more pass attempts and less rushing attempts than any other team in the league this season. And worst of all, injured star pass rusher Brian Orakpo’s terrible Geico commercials are still in circulation on game days, so the Redskins are getting all of the annoyance but none of the sacks from their top linebacker. Shouldn’t have let his pecs get Orakpoed.
3. The Giants are also participating in this game. And if Eli Manning is on, they’ll likely win because of the Redskins’ aforementioned difficulties in pass defense. What Sunday night’s thoroughly impressive blowout win over the Packers most illustrated, however, was how important safety Kenny Phillips is to Big Blue’s defense. With a healthy Phillips back at strong safety (granted, this is kind of like saying “With a healthy Mark Prior back in the starting rotation), the Giants can use their nickel defense with Antrel Rolle acting as a third linebacker against the run and slot corner against the pass and Stevie Brown focused solely on patrolling center field. It was a defense that no one really figured out in their Super Bowl run last postseason and certainly a defense that the Packers had trouble with last week. Naturally, Phillips re-injured his knee late in the game Sunday and is questionable for Monday night. Would the Giants like him to be on the field at the same time the most exciting young player in the league is lined up across from them? PERHAPS.

Steve Stone’s Said in Stone Cold Lock of the Game: “As it turned out, I had runners at second and third with no play made by anyone. I handed him back his sponge and tried to pitch my way out of it.”

Projected Final Score: Redskins 33, Giants 31

Team To Bet On If Gambling Were Legal: Redskins (+2.5)

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Before we get into the rest of our Week 13 preview, let’s post a quick recap on last night’s Saints-Falcons game…

Atlanta 23, New Orleans 13

Adjusted Yards per Play: 4.79 – Atlanta, 3.12 – New Orleans

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Atlanta 19.50, New Orleans 16.49

Quick Thought: First of all, let’s congratulate Drew Brees on his 54-game passing touchdown streak; the fact that it took a five-interception day to end it probably tells you…well, I’m don’t actually know what it tells you other than he had a crap game. Now that the streak is over, however, I’m sure we’ll hear a bunch of old-timers come out of the woodwork and say that Johnny Unitas’s 47-game streak is still more impressive because he played in a much tougher era for quarterbacks. And that’s undoubtedly true. The thing is, though, while it’s unquestionably easier to gain yards through the air now, the average number of touchdowns thrown in a game hasn’t changed that much since Unitas played. When Unitas was on his streak from 1956 to 1960, the average NFL team threw for 1.1 (1956), 1.2 (1957), 1.5 (1958), 1.4 (1959), and 1.4 (1960) touchdowns per game 1.32. During Brees’s streak, the average NFL team threw for 1.4 (2009), 1.5 (2010), 1.5 (2011), and 1.5 (2012) touchdowns per game. So, on average, quarterbacks in Brees’s era could be expected to throw for .15 more touchdowns per game than quarterbacks in Unitas’s era – a decent advantage, but not an overpowering one. Ultimately, I’m not sure which streak is more impressive; I am, however, sure that both were fairly impressive. I guess.

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Below are SSLYAR’s Week 13 NFL Projections, ranked by the author’s subjective interest in watching each game. Home teams are italicized; projected winners against the spread are underlined. To see which games are being shown in your area, check out the506′s TV distribution maps. Our guest analyst this week is the former emperor of the Mongol Empire, Genghis Khan.

1. Washington Redskins 33, New York Giants 31 (in-depth preview above): “It is not sufficient that I suceed – all others must fail.”
2. Baltimore Ravens 20, Pittsburgh Steelers 14: “With Heaven’s aid I have conquered for you a huge empire. But my life was too short to achieve the conquest of the world. That task is left for you.”
3. Green Bay Packers 26, Minnesota Vikings 21: “I am the punishment of God…If you had not committed great sins, God would not have sent a punishment like me upon you.”
4. Denver Broncos 28, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20: “The greatest happiness is to scatter your enemy, to drive him before you, to see his cities reduced to ashes, to see those who love him shrouded in tears, and to gather into your bosom his wives and daughters.”
5. Seattle Seahawks 17, Chicago Bears 16: “If my body dies, let my body die, but do not let my country die.”
6. Detroit Lions 35, Indianapolis Colts 24: “The Root of Wild Madder.”
7. San Francisco 49ers 24, St. Louis Rams 19: “If unable to abstain from drinking, a man may get drunk three times a month; if he does it more than three times he is culpable; if he gets drunk twice a month it is better; if once a month, this is still more laudable; and if one does not drink at all what can be better? But where can I find such a man? If such a man were found he would be worthy of the highest esteem.”
8. New England Patriots 24, Miami Dolphins 20: “Perhaps my children will live in stone houses and walled towns – Not I.”
9. Cincinnati Bengals 23, San Diego Chargers 21: ““Those who were adept and brave fellows I have made military commanders. Those who were quick and nimble I have made herders of horses. Those who were not adept I have given a small whip and sent to be shepherds.”
10. Dallas Cowboys 28, Philadelphia Eagles 20: ““Heaven grew weary of the excessive pride and luxury of China… I am from the Barbaric North. I wear the same clothing and eat the same food as the cowherds and horse-herders. We make the same sacrifices and we share.. our riches. I look upon the nation as a new-born child and I care for my soldiers as though they were my brothers.”
11. Houston Texans 27, Tennessee Titans 24: ““As my calling is high, the obligations incumbent upon me are also heavy; and I fear that in my ruling there may be something wanting.”
12. Buffalo Bills 28, Jacksonville Jaguars 23: “One arrow alone can be easily broken but many arrows are indestructible.”
13. New York Jets 14, Arizona Cardinals 10: “Be of one mind and one faith, that you may conquer your enemies and lead long and happy lives.”
14. Carolina Panthers 26, Kansas City Chiefs 17: ““Say ye unto the Khwarezmians that I am the sovereign of the sunrise, and [he is] the sovereign of the sunset. Let there be between us a firm treaty of friendship, amity, and peace, and let traders and caravans on both sides come and go.”
15. Oakland Raiders 21, Cleveland Browns 20: “Despite all expectations, the time of my last campaign and of my passing is near. I wish to die at home. Let not my end disarm you, and on no account weep for me, lest the enemy be warned of my death.”

2012 Record Thus Far: 113-63-1 (10-6 last week)

2012 Record Against the Spread Thus Far: 85-92 (8-8 last week)

Week 12 Quick Thoughts

Scattered stats and thoughts regarding Week 12 of the 2012 NFL Season…

NY Giants 38, Green Bay 10

Adjusted Yards per Play: 7.90 – NY Giants, 4.17 – Green Bay

AY/P Projected Point Totals: NY Giants 34.99, Green Bay 17.28

Quick Thoughts:

1. The “issue” with the Packers’ passing game this season – and I put “issue” in quotation marks because even with their relative struggles, they’ve still been one of the five or ten best passing teams in the league – is that they have two mediocre-at-best tackles. This was true even when Bryan Bulaga was healthy, but the problem is worse now that he’s out for the season with a hip injury and T.J. Lang has had to slide over from guard to right tackle. If neither of your team’s tackles can handle pass rushers one-on-one, then you’re forced to spend more time than you’d like trying to slow the opposition’s pass rush down. Often, this means running the football. And since none of the Packers’ running backs this season have averaged more than 3.5 yards per carry, running the football tends to just put Green Bay back in those predictable passing situations, where the Jason Pierre-Pauls and Osi Umenyioras of the world can pin their ears back and pretend they’re Mel Gibson in Braveheart (only less anti-Semitic) leading the Scots against the cruel tyranny of King Edward I. Truly ’tis a vicious cycle.

2. That’s the main reason for the Packers’ loss last night if you’re looking for analysis relevant to the actual game. If you’re looking for a more spurious scapegoat, look no further than the terrible mustaches sported by Aaron Rodgers and Mike McCarthy. This Movember nonsense has gotten a little too big for its britches, if you were to ask me. Take it from someone who can grow a pretty luxurious Amish beard but only ten long, stringy hairs for a mustache: unless you can grow that sucker full and bushy and devote the proper amount of time and care into grooming that nose neighbor, YOU SHOULD NEVER, EVER ATTEMPT A MUSTACHE UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES. Rodgers and McCarthy were just reaping the consequences of their actions. The only problem with this theory is that Eli was growing out some equally wretched facial hair of his own last night and things turned out pretty well for him. Of course, as Lucas pointed out to me last night, “It makes sense. Whatever conventional wisdom says about the Giants, the opposite is true.” That it is, my friend. That it is.

3. Finally, Reason #1,137 Why Al Michaels Is Awesome: no one loves sneaking around the NFL’s no-talking-about-gambling-on-air policy more than Alan Richard. When the Giants lined up to go for it on 4th-and-Goal up 38-10 (in a game where the over/under was 50), Al noted before the play, “It’s not over yet,” sending Cris Collinsworth into a giggling fit. Then when the Giants failed on the fourth-down play, in the deadest-of-pan deliveries, Al sent the game off to a commercial with the words, “Underwhelming, to say the least.” Inarguably, this was the greatest moment of the NFL season thus far. I can only assume Al was high-fiving Cris during the commercial break with a satisfied smirk on his face while telling Cris about the time he indirectly mentioned the point spread during Super Bowl XXIX. And Cris probably just sat back and said, “Heheheheh, pass the corn chips, Al.” Best broadcasting duo in sports, folks.

Chicago 28, Minnesota 10

Adjusted Yards per Play: 3.68 – Chicago, 2.05 – Minnesota

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Chicago 18.66, Minnesota 9.52

Quick Thought: On the one hand, the Bears broke their two-game losing streak, which is good. On the other hand, half the team died during the game, which is bad. On the third hand, Jay Cutler is still alive, so it’s all good! Yesterday was one of those Cutler games where his final stat line is pretty mediocre on its own but semi-miraculous when you take into account how many throws into six-inch windows and triple coverage he had to make. The Bears would have scored six points yesterday if Jason Campbell started. Remind me of this high point when Cutler’s throwing five interceptions to the Packers in a few weeks.

Atlanta 24, Tampa Bay 23

Adjusted Yards per Play: 6.83 – Atlanta, 6.78 – Tampa Bay

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Atlanta 27.81, Tampa Bay 26.15

Quick Thought: What do you know?! Atlanta pulls out another close one! THIS HAS NEVER HAPPENED BEFORE IN THE HISTORY OF MANKIND. Can’t even really get mad about it anymore – it’s like that weird zit on your back that keeps coming back even after you actually starting cleaning that area with soap and harassing it with J.J. Redick jokes. Or is that just a personal problem? Either way, congratulations on becoming the zit that inhabits the NFL’s back, Atlanta!

San Francisco 31, New Orleans 21

Adjusted Yards per Play: 6.61 – San Francisco, 3.88 – New Orleans

AY/P Projected Point Totals: San Francisco 26.44, New Orleans 18.57

Quick Thought: The biggest difference between Colin Kaepernick and Alex Smith thus far? In his two starts, Kaepernick has been sacked twice in 50 dropbacks for a sack rate of 4.0%. Smith has been sacked 24 times in 241 dropbacks for a sack rate of 10.0%. The 49ers offensive line is nothing short of phenomenal in run blocking, but honestly they look pretty bad against a pass rush. Kaepernick repeatedly dodged and scrambled his way out of pressure against a below-average Saints front four; Smith likely would have been sacked at least three or four times. I think that’s the biggest reason Kaepernick’s taken over the job; Smith can make and has made 95% of the throws Kaepernick’s completed over the past two games. Kaepernick just gives himself more chances for completions.

Baltimore 16, San Diego 13 (OT)

Adjusted Yards per Play: 5.09 – Baltimore, 4.62 – San Diego

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Baltimore 33.09, San Diego 21.45

Quick Thought: RAY RICE!!! First of all, what on earth was Flacco thinking throwing a three-yard dumpoff on 4th-and-29? More importantly, what was going through Ray’s head at that point? “Oh, don’t you throw that ball to me, you know what crap I’m gonna have to pull to get that first down? Aw crap, Joe, you ARE going to stick me with this, aren’t you? Well, you’re not going to make me the scapegoat, you big Frankenstein. I’m gonna get this first down and then the pressure’ll be back on you, Flaccid Face.” You heard it here first: Ray Rice converted that 4th-and-29 out of pure spite.

Indianapolis 20, Buffalo 13

Adjusted Yards per Play: 4.10 – Indianapolis, 4.81 – Buffalo

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Indianapolis 20.50, Buffalo 19.93

Quick Thought: Should’ve known better than to pick against the Colts at home, where there’s a 75% chance Chuck Pagano will appear in person and render any chance the opposing team has moot. Or was the Colts’ victory perhaps due to the two cheerleaders who shaved their heads in between the third and fourth quarters? Strange but true: no NFL team has ever lost when some of their cheerleaders have had their heads shaved during the game. CAN’T ARGUE WITH FACTS.

Miami 24, Seattle 21

Adjusted Yards per Play: 8.18 – Miami, 6.29 – Seattle

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Miami 32.14, Seattle 25.16

Quick Thought: Just as we all expected: a week after averaging 3.3 yards per play against the terrible Bills defense, the Dolphins went up against one of the top five defenses in the league…and averaged 7.9 yards per play. And all this even with the sprinklers going off in the third quarter, which you would assume could only help the Seahawks – they of all teams should be more accustomed to playing in wet conditions, right? In any event, I nominate that the Chiefs-Browns game in Week 14 be played with the sprinklers running non-stop; that way, there would at least be a chance I would watch some of that crap they’re marketing as football.

Cleveland 20, Pittsburgh 14

Adjusted Yards per Play: 3.64 – Cleveland, -2.24 – Pittsburgh

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Cleveland 16.64, Pittsburgh -8.80

Quick Thought: Ladies and gentlemen, the new Worst Offensive Performance of the Year! You can breathe easier, Mark Sanchez: your team’s putrid performance against the 49ers in Week 4 has just been surpassed in ineptitude. The Steelers didn’t even have notably bad fumble luck; when you put the ball on the ground eight times, you really shouldn’t be blaming luck for all your turnovers, anyway. Quite literally, if they had just punted the ball on every play, they would have been better off by eight or nine points. And Cleveland STILL only won by six! The things you have to do to let the Browns beat you…

St. Louis 31, Arizona 17

Adjusted Yards per Play: 6.70 – St. Louis, 3.05 – Arizona

AY/P Projected Point Totals: St. Louis 25.84, Arizona 16.78

Quick Thought: Is it a bad thing for your long-term prospects when you throw four interceptions (two of them pick-sixes) and no touchdowns and I still think, “Huh, that was better than I expected?” Congratulations on setting a ridiculously low bar, Ryan Lindley!

Jacksonville 24, Tennessee 19

Adjusted Yards per Play: 5.60 – Jacksonville, 4.14 – Tennessee

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Jacksonville 24.00, Tennessee 20.70

Quick Thought: I’m just going to point out that during his two full years starting in Miami, Chad Henne ranked 17th both years in Football Outsiders’ DYAR rankings. Is he the bright, shining beacon of hope that your franchise can ride to a playoff berth year after year? Of course not. On the other hand, HE’S NOT BLAINE GABBERT. So there’s that.

Cincinnati 34, Oakland 10

Adjusted Yards per Play: 7.50 – Cincinnati, 2.34 – Oakland

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Cincinnati 35.36, Oakland 10.20

Quick Thought: In my mind, Cincinnati is now the favorite for the final wild-card slot in the AFC. They’ll have to beat Pittsburgh in Week 16 to get there in all likelihood, but given the way Pittsburgh’s played offensively this year even with Roethlisberger that seems eminently doable. Only quibble I have with them so far: GET MOHAMED SANU MORE PASS ATTEMPTS. Did you know that he is currently averaging 73 Yards per Attempt? If he kept that up over a full season of, let’s say, 500 pass attempts, he would throw for 36,500 yards. WHY AREN’T YOU MORE EAGER TO EXPLORE THIS, MARVIN LEWIS?

Denver 17, Kansas City 9

Adjusted Yards per Play: 5.76 – Denver, 3.71 – Kansas City

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Denver 25.92, Kansas City 15.64

Quick Thought: All of you angry over Denver’s shocking non-cover against the Chiefs yesterday should feel free to direct your anger to Matt Prater. Missing a 47-yard field goal in the first quarter? Hey, no one’s perfect, man! But doinking a 33-yarder off the left upright in the third quarter? THERE’S BLOOD ON YOUR HANDS, MATTHEW.

Game of the Week: Packers vs. Giants plus the rest of the Week 12 Preview

You’re probably aware that this Sunday night’s matchup between the Packers and Giants pits the last two Super Bowl champions against each other. What you may not remember is each team has also been directly responsible for the other’s postseason ouster the last two years. The Packers throttled the Giants in a key Week 16 matchup in 2010 that gave them the tiebreaker for the final wild-card slot over Big Blue. Then, of course, the Giants avenged both that loss and a 2011 regular season loss in a lopsided win over the Packers in last year’s divisional playoffs. All of this to say…THERE’S NO LOVE LOST BETWEEN THESE TWO TEAMS. Is that a good enough cliche to go out on? All right, let’s get into Game of the Week…

Who: Green Bay Packers vs. New York Giants

Where: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ

When: 7:30 P.M., Sunday, November 25th

Network: NBC (Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth, Michele Tafoya)

Key Storylines:

1. Why do the Giants always fade in the second half? Football Outsiders and Grantland’s Bill Barnwell have noted in the past that the Giants’ second-half struggles are usually due to a combination of a brutal schedule and a pass defense that tends to run out of gas late in the season. Currently, however, the biggest reason for the Giant’s two-game losing streak is the play of Eli Manning, who has gone from serious MVP contender to slightly above-average quarterback over the course of three games. To be fair, his receivers haven’t given him too much help; Victor Cruz’s production has fallen back down to league-average efficiency and it’s fair to wonder how healthy Hakeem Nicks has been all season, given the drop from his normal level of play. But if you even saw just a few highlights from the Giants’ games against the Steelers or Bengals, you know that the little Manning brother has brought a lot of these struggles upon himself, making late throws into traffic and making remarkably careless decisions under pressure. The Giants need Eli to snap out of his funk immediately in order to hang on to the NFC East title that looked to be theirs a month ago.
2. Are the Packers peaking at the right time again? Actually, based on the way they played in back-to-back games against Houston and St. Louis earlier this year, you could make a strong argument that they can play quite a bit better themselves than what they’ve shown over their past three games. Which, considering they went 3-0 in that stretch, is something of a terrifying thought. Take Aaron Rodgers, for example. Currently, he actually has a below average Net Yards per Attempt figure of 6.31 (league average is 6.35); if he finished the season at that rate, it would be the worst NY/A figure of his career. Now a large reason for that is the brutal slate of defenses the Packers have faced so far this year. And Rodgers’ TD-to-INT ratio of 27-6 is in line with the A-Rod we all know and fear, so ultimately his Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt figure ranks him seventh overall in the NFL. Still, there’s obvious room for improvement for the Packers’ passing game in the last six games of the season.
3. What’s the likelihood the loser of this game gets knocked out of the playoffs because of it? Not particularly high, if we’re being honest. The NFC East is almost certainly only going to send one team to the playoffs, so that would make any wild-card tiebreakers between these two teams a moot point. Make no mistake, however, this is a vitally important game for both teams in their respective divisional races. The Giants’ biggest concern may no longer be the wildly inconsistent Cowboys, but the suddenly high-flying Redskins who have a Monday night date with New York next week. A Giants’ loss to the Packers would leave the door open for the Redskins to tie the division lead in that game. The Packers, meanwhile, have fought back into a tie with the Bears for first place in the NFC North and still have two games left against the Vikings, who are only one game back of them. Whoever loses this game will still be in solid position to make the playoffs, but they will have also left the door open for divisional foes to overtake them.

Steve Stone’s Said in Stone Cold Lock of the Game: “Larry Andersen pitched for at least parts of 17 seasons, and he threw 98 percent sliders.”

Projected Final Score: Giants 28, Packers 27

Team To Bet On If Gambling Were Legal: Packers (+2.5)

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Before we get into the rest of our Week 12 preview, let’s post some quick recaps on yesterday’s Thanksgiving games…

Houston 34, Detroit 31 (OT)

Adjusted Yards per Play: 6.87 – Houston, 6.38 – Detroit

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Houston 38.28, Detroit 39.65

Quick Thought: Allow me to be the 400th person you’ve heard in the past 24 hours say that the no-replay-on-an-illegal-challenge rule is the dumbest piece of crap I’ve ever encountered in the past three days. Why is Walt Coleman ALWAYS at the center of these things? He’s surpassed Jerome Boger as my most disliked referee in the league. At least Jerome is just incompetent and doesn’t have any idea what he’s doing. There’s an aura of malevolence with Walt – you can’t often hear it through his thick Southern drawl, but it’s definitely there and it’s definitely undermining the integrity of the NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE (I’m hoping if I write that in caps enough, ESPN will make me one of their NFL analysts).

Washington 38, Dallas 31

Adjusted Yards per Play: 7.94 – Washington, 5.04 – Dallas

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Washington 35.16, Dallas 27.00

Quick Thought: DON’T DO ‘EM LIKE THAT, RGIII!!! That was so reminiscent of Randy Moss’s three-catch, three-touchdown Thanksgiving performance during his rookie season in 1998 in which even Pat Summerall was speaking in hyperbolic tones by the end of it. What made both Randy and RGIII’s performances so special was the added sense that this was just the tip of the iceberg for these guys; we could conceivably see those guys play at that level for 15 years. Now if RGIII ever fake-moons the Lambeau crowd while Joe Buck is in the booth, then the analogy will be complete.

New England 49, NY Jets 19

Adjusted Yards per Play: 7.84 – New England, 3.73 – NY Jets

AY/P Projected Point Totals: New England 37.52, NY Jets 17.85

Quick Thought: I haven’t laughed so hard at a single play this season as I did at Mark Sanchez’s HERP-A-DERP fumble into the backside of his own offensive lineman (with some nice push thrown in by Vince Wilfork, of course). There’s comedy, there’s high comedy, there’s transcendent comedy, and then there’s Mark Sanchez running into his own offensive lineman, falling on his backside and losing the ball for a fumble return touchdown. WHAT DOES HE HAVE TO DO GET PULLED AT THIS POINT? He’s begging to taken out back ‘Ol-Yeller-style, Rex!

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Below are SSLYAR’s Week 12 NFL Projections, ranked by the author’s subjective interest in watching each game. Home teams are italicized; projected winners against the spread are underlined. To see which games are being shown in your area, check out the506′s TV distribution maps. Our guest analyst this week is fifteen-year NBA veteran Rasheed Wallace.

1. New York Giants 28, Green Bay Packers 27 (in-depth preview above): “We don’t see ourselves as four All-Stars. We see ourselves as one unit. It’s like five fingers on a hand. You can do more damage together as a fist than spread out flat.”
2. Chicago Bears 14, Minnesota Vikings 12: “Keep us on the back-burner. We won’t lose our swagger at all, because when you put that food on the back-burner, it’s just simmering and it tastes better. When you got that food on the front burner, that’s the one you’re paying attention to the most, and that’s the one that might burn. We’re on that back-burner.”
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31, Atlanta Falcons 27: “Go for it, Darko!”
4. San Francisco 49ers 31, New Orleans Saints 24: “That’s our main food that feeds this team.”
5. Baltimore Ravens 20, San Diego Chargers 16: “I’m not going to start the game by cracking a cat in the skull if I don’t get elbowed first.”
6. Buffalo Bills 28, Indianapolis Colts 27: “I guess that was his wannabe retaliation. I started laughing and got a (technical foul) for that.”
7. Seattle Seahawks 17, Miami Dolphins 10: “That’s when guys get to trash-talk. And it’s pretty much stroll down Memory Lane. You know, when cats say, ‘Oh, back when I was playing, when we went to the tournament and this and that.’ It’s just a stroll down Memory Lane more than anything.”
8. Cleveland Browns 13, Pittsburgh Steelers 10: “I don’t care about that number 16. Y’all should know that coming from me. It ain’t going to change nothing about us and what we doing. Y’all should know that.”
9. St. Louis Rams 17, Arizona Cardinals 16: “I just pick them game-by-game, not that bracket thing. It’s more profitable that way.”
10. Tennessee Titans 23, Jacksonville Jaguars 21: “It wasn’t no statement. It was just another game. Statements aren’t to be made until playoff time.”
11. Cincinnati Bengals 30, Oakland Raiders 24: “Don’t tread on D.”
12. Carolina Panthers 24, Philadelphia Eagles 16: “I can’t speak for other teams, but for us, we’re definitely trying to voice our objection. I don’t have a problem with that dress code if a man is injured and has to be on the bench during games. But it’s kind of crazy to sit up there and try to tell us how to dress on the way to work. We’re not in that head office in New York. To me, that’s crazy.”
13. Denver Broncos 27, Kansas City Chiefs 14: “Ball don’t lie.”

2012 Record Thus Far: 103-59-1 (11-3 last week)

2012 Record against the Spread Thus Far: 79-84 (8-6 last week)

Week 9 Quick Thoughts

Scattered stats and thoughts regarding Week 9 of the 2012 NFL Season…

Pittsburgh 24, NY Giants 20

Adjusted Yards per Play: 4.55 – Pittsburgh, 3.27 – NY Giants

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Pittsburgh 22.43, NY Giants 11.21

Quick Thoughts:

1. I guess the obvious question we should be asking first is this: what in the world is Eli looking at in the above picture that is making his eyes bug out so? He’s been sacked plenty of times before, so it can’t be surprise that he’s being hit. Did Tom Coughlin momentarily disrobe on the sideline directly in front of him? If so, then I can’t blame Eli’s look of sheer terror – not even Mrs. Coughlin would want to see that anymore, I don’t think. What if LaMarr Woodley was telling him that Santa Claus and the Easter Bunny don’t exist anymore? If that’s the case, Eli’s not going to get as much as slack from this writer. According to this 2006 poll, the average American child stops believing in Santa at age eight and only fifteen percent of those surveyed believed past age ten. Wouldn’t it be quintessential Eli if he was JUST NOW learning that Santa wasn’t real? I’m going to live the rest of my life under the assumption that this is the case. It’ll make all Giants games and Eli commercials approximately 27% more enjoyable, I feel.

2. For those who enjoy proper rule enforcement according to the letter of the law: YES THE STEELERS GOT SCREWED OVER BY THE OFFICIATING IN THE FIRST HALF. I thought Roethlisberger’s quasi-tuck was a fumble, but I’ve seen that play get called an incompletion a ton, too, so that call, at best, inhabited a murky, gray area of the rulebook and human knowledge. What was not murky and gray was JPP’s BLATANT CLIP on Heath Miller at the end of Michael Boley’s fumble return. In addition, Ryan Clark’s big hit on Victor Cruz in the end zone was entirely legal and could only be considered a hit to the head if we, as a society, have decided to call our kidneys the “head” now. On the other hand, why am I defending Pittsburgh? Roethlisberger is a scum-sucking weasel and Ryan Clark would have hit a defenseless player in the head eventually, anyway. Might as well get the penalty out of the way early.

3. Finally, let’s all congratulate the New York media for successfully blowing a close loss to a good team COMPLETELY OUT OF PROPORTION. What’s this? The defending Super Bowl champions who came in with a 6-2 record, a four-game winning streak and a two-game lead in the division lost a game? HIDE THE WOMEN AND CHILDREN, 6-10 IS RIGHT AROUND THE CORNER. Eli may never complete another pass. Time for the David Carr Era to begin. BEFORE IT’S TOO LATE!

Atlanta 19, Dallas 13

Adjusted Yards per Play: 7.51 – Atlanta, 7.35 – Dallas

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Atlanta 33.80, Dallas 28.35

Quick Thought: Jason Garrett is a really bad head coach. I know this isn’t a particularly revelatory or insightful comment, but my goodness. The Cowboys consistently moved the ball up and down the field in the first half via the forward pass; they had 23 yards rushing at halftime. Naturally, the enlightened Princeton graduate Garrett thought of the second half as the perfect time to ESTABLISH THE RUN and take the ball out of Tony Romo’s hands. In related news, the Cowboys did nothing offensively in the second half except for the one drive where they let Tony Romo run the hurry-up offense. In which case, they went the length of the field for a touchdown in six plays. If Jerry Jones were still alive, you can bet he wouldn’t be standing for this.

Denver 31, Cincinnati 23

Adjusted Yards per Play: 5.39 – Denver, 5.01 – Cincinnati

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Denver 23.49, Cincinnati 25.77

Quick Thought: The Broncos play at the Colts next season, so the “Peyton returns to Indianapolis!” storyline will surface no later than 2013, but what if they meet each other in the first round of the playoffs? I’m almost positive said game would get decent ratings. I’m almost positive.

Carolina 21, Washington 13

Adjusted Yards per Play: 7.80 – Carolina, 4.76 – Washington

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Carolina 27.86, Washington 25.50

Quick Thought: One thing that Lucas and I forgot to talk about in our otherwise brilliant Week 9 picks post was the election subplot surrounding the outcome of the Redskins game. I’ll let Lucas’ texts from yesterday afternoon tell the story:

• LUCAS (12:25 P.M.): Except for 2004, when the Skins lose their last home game before the election, the incumbent loses. Skins win, incumbent gets reelected.
• LUCAS (12:27 P.M.): RG3/CAM AREN’T JUST PLAYING FOR THEIR FUTURES. THEY’RE PLAYING FOR AMERICA.
• NATHANIEL (12:31 P.M.): Haha yeah I thought about that after I sent my picks over. What happens if the Skins tie? Electoral college deadlock? LET’S ROOT FOR THIS TO HAPPEN.
• LUCAS (12:31 P.M.): I LIKE IT!

Sadly, a tie did not occur. Ignore all the other statistical indicators predicting a comfortable victory for you, President Obama: you’re gonna lose the election. THAT’S A FACT.

Seattle 30, Minnesota 20

Adjusted Yards per Play: 6.55 – Seattle, 4.38 – Minnesota

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Seattle 33.22, Minnesota 16.58

Quick Thought: Russell Wilson’s slowly and steadily improved just about every week this season (somewhere in the Los Angeles area, Bill Simmons is shouting, “I told you so!” and then going back to rolling around naked in a swimming pool filled with Larry Bird posters). Christian Ponder’s slowly and steadily descended into dogcrap every week this season. Call it “A Tale of Two Quarterbacks.” POSITIVELY DICKENS-IAN.

Indianapolis 23, Miami 20

Adjusted Yards per Play: 7.41 – Indianapolis, 6.98 – Miami

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Indianapolis 39.70, Miami 28.92

Quick Thought: Unsustainable Stat Alert: The Colts are now 5-1 in one-possession games this season; I trust you can make the appropriately “looks like they’ve got LUCK on their side!” pun for yourself. Meanwhile, I remain pleasantly surprised how non-terrible Ryan Tannehill has looked this season. He has shown himself capable of completing a forward pass AND when you type in “Ryan Tannehill” into Google Images, he now appears in about 50% of the first couple pages of images. SEE LAUREN? PEOPLE LIKE ME TOO NOW KIND OF.

Tampa Bay 42, Oakland 32

Adjusted Yards per Play: 9.29 – Tampa Bay, 4.92 – Oakland

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Tampa Bay 41.81, Oakland 26.36

Quick Thought: If you’re looking for a dark horse Wild-Card candidate in the NFC…well, Tampa Bay’s starting to look like a pretty good choice. Since they came off their bye, their offense has been playing at a level that would cause the ’99 Rams to cry in shame. I’m about 95% certain Doug Martin was literally on fire yesterday. Might be the reason he broke off all those long runs in the second half: how can we expect the Raiders to try to tackle him IF THEY’RE GOING TO GET THIRD-DEGREE BURNS JUST ATTEMPTING IT? Think about that, all you Monday Morning quarterbacks out there, before you pass judgment on that poor defense.

Houston 21, Buffalo 9

Adjusted Yards per Play: 7.12 – Houston, 4.53 – Buffalo

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Houston 31.02, Buffalo 18.44

Quick Thought: Signs Buffalo’s run defense may be turning a corner: Arian Foster rushed for ONLY 111 yards on ONLY 24 carries and ONLY scored one touchdown. That’s just 4.6 yards per carry! Keep this up, Buffalo, and people will start thinking you actually have an NFL-caliber run defense.

Chicago 51, Tennessee 20

Adjusted Yards per Play: 5.97 – Chicago, 2.33 – Tennessee

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Chicago 27.72, Tennessee 9.15

Quick Thought: Look, I have no illusions that he’ll be able to keep this up in the second half and keep pace with J.J. Watt in the Defensive Player of the Year race, but what Peanut Tillman’s done in the first half of this season has been just absolutely amazing. Forced fumbles is a stat that hasn’t been well-tracked in the past, so who knows what the actual record for a single season is, but right now Tillman’s on track to destroy Osi Umenyiora and Dwayne Harper’s listed record of ten. No one is better at punching balls. Well, no one other than Kevin Garnett.

Green Bay 31, Arizona 17

Adjusted Yards per Play: 5.99 – Green Bay, 5.08 – Arizona

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Green Bay 29.95, Arizona 23.95

Quick Thought: Aaron Rodgers’ 60 Minutes interview last night was, for the most part, phenomenally non-enlightening (you would expect nothing less from a Scott Pelley piece), but one of the few things we did learn is that if you want to get on Rodgers’ nerves, just make fun of his height (he’s “only” 6’2″) or say something along the lines of “Wow, I thought you’d be bigger in person.” Apparently, that really gets under his skin and causes him to say wildly inappropriate things such as “I don’t appreciate that.” Food for thought if you ever meet him, Lucas.

Baltimore 25, Cleveland 15

Adjusted Yards per Play: 5.52 – Baltimore, 3.08 – Cleveland

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Baltimore 24.45, Cleveland 14.30

Quick Thought: Another golden texting exchange from Lucas and myself yesterday for your reading pleasure:

• LUCAS (1:44 P.M.): Pulled up the BAL-CLE game. Brandon Weeden has a funny look on his face. As I sat here trying to find out what it meant he threw a pick. I feel this is significant.
• NATHANIEL (1:46 P.M.): Was it a look of constipation? I bet it was a look of constipation.
• LUCAS (1:47 P.M.): I could maybe see it being one of mild constipation. Maybe confusion, maybe misplaced condescension. Hard to say for sure
• NATHANIEL (1:49 P.M.): Call it constifusionscension. Rolls off the tongue very easily!

There you have it. Yesterday, Brandon Weeden was constifusionscended and threw an interception as a result. THUS ENDS OUR EXPERT ANALYSIS.

Detroit 31, Jacksonville 14

Adjusted Yards per Play: 7.56 – Detroit, 3.88 – Jacksonville

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Detroit 36.72, Jacksonville 16.35

Quick Thought: We all thought it was monumentally stupid for the Jaguars to wear their black jerseys in 87 degree heat against the Bears a month ago. Little did we know at the time (unless you were a devoted Jaguars fan, but I seriously doubt that, no such people actually exist) that they were actually switching to black as their main home jersey for the rest of the season. Thus, Shahid Khan goes down in the record books as the first professional sports owner in history who actively attempted to kill his players via heat stroke. TRULY THIS IS A MODEL FRANCHISE.