WhatIfSports Duel to the Death: 1976 Buccaneers vs. 2008 Lions

If you’ve never heard of WhatIfSports.com, you now have. It’s a nifty little website that allows you simulate games between teams across different eras in a variety of different sports including, strangely enough, the NFL. Want to figure out who would win between the ’89 49ers and ’62 Packers? Knock yourself out. Always wondered whether the ’04 Jaguars were better than the ’64 Eagles or vice versa? Who hasn’t! But for our first WhatIfSports Duel to the Death post, we wanted a matchup that truly personified the Irresistible Force Paradox. And when you get right down to it, there has been no more unstoppable force than the winless 1976 Tampa Bay Buccaneers and no more immovable object than the also winless 2008 Detroit Lions. Thus, we attempt to sate our unquenchable thirst for hypothetical knowledge with these two teams.

Now we all know that if these teams were actually to meet in real life, there would be some sort of outside event — such as The Second Coming, an act of terrorism against the playing surface by Bane, or an unexpected Aretha Franklin streaking across the field — that would preclude the game from actually determining a winner. The computer simulation engine that runs WhatIfSports.com does not know this, however, and thus proceeds as if determing a victor were possible. We can only shake our heads with a smile and assume that the computers are doing the best they can and will be able to think like a big boy someday.

As far as lineups and strategies are concerned, we determined each team’s starting quarterback by using the one who started the most games for their team. Thus, the ‘Ol Ballcoach Steve Spurrier starts for the Bucs and Dan Orlovsky for the Lions. We also set each team’s offensive strategy to the prevailing ideas of their eras; the Bucs, playing the dead-ball 70s, preferred to run and the Lions, playing in the wide-open NFL of today, preferred to pass. Additionally, as a matter of fairness, the game was played at a neutral site: Kezar Stadium in San Francisco, California. To reflect the typical weather of this chosen locale, the game time temperature hovered around 55 degrees with heavy winds gusting up to 30 miles per hour.

And now, enough with the preamble. Which team survived this duel to the death: the mighty Buccaneers or the imposing Lions?

Well, in a development that shocked no one, the game was enthralling and close to the bitter end, featuring seven lead changes and no lead larger than six points. Jason Hanson kicked a pair of field goals to stake the Lions to an early advantage, but Spurrier responded with a strike to Morris Owens to tie the game up (Dave Green missed the extra point, however.). After another Hanson field goal, Spurrier found Owens again to give the Bucs a 13-9 lead early in the third quarter.

But Dan Orlovsky wouldn’t go down without a fight. On the first play of the fourth quarter, Orlovsky hit Mike Furrey with a 55-yard touchdown pass to put the Lions back in front. After Ed Williams scored from 10 yards out to respond for the Bucs, Orlovsky put the Lions on his back again, finding Kevin Smith from 3 yards out to give the Lions a 23-20 lead with four minutes left. Detroit fans presumably responded to this good fortune by turning off the television, assuming only bad things could happen from this point.

And they did. Dave Green atoned for his early extra point miss with a 35-yard field goal to send the game into overtime. And three minutes into that extra session, Ed Williams found the end zone again — this time from 24 yards — to give Tampa Bay that sweet first victory of their pretend season. Orlovsky fought valiantly in defeat, throwing for 227 yards and 2 TDs, but the Bucs’ ground game chewed up the Lions’ run defense to the tune of 225 yards over 43 attempts. And, thusly, the Buccaneers finally found their sweet redemption while the Lions returned to wander aimlessly around the barren NFL wilderness for a few decades longer.

WhatIfSports Duel to the Death Final Score (box score and play-by-play): 1976 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 29, 2008 Detroit Lions 23 (OT).

2012 Team Previews: Houston Texans

Houston Texans

• 2011 Record: 10-6 (1st in AFC South, lost AFC Divisional Game to Baltimore)
• 2011 Point Differential: +103 (6th out of 32)
• 2011 Strength of Schedule (per PFR’s SRS system): –1.9 (32nd)
• 2011 Adjusted Net Yards per Pass Attempt (offense): 7.0 (t-6th)
• 2011 Adjusted Net Yards per Pass Attempt (defense): 4.5 (t-1st)
• 2011 Adjusted Pythagorean Record (accounting for Strength of Schedule): 10.0-6.0 (9th)
• 2010 Adjusted Pythagorean Record: 7.3-8.7 (22nd)

And now an application of the question “What if?” to various playoff teams throughout history 

In the first nine years of their existence, the Houston Texans were probably the most anonymous team in the NFL, an imaginary title bestowed upon them by myself largely by merit of their lack of playoff appearances. You don’t make the playoffs, you don’t get many national television appearances. You don’t get many national television appearances, you get stuck playing virtually all your games in the early Sunday afternoon window with the immortal Don Criqui announcing your games. Really, the only memorable things that come to mind about the Texans from 2002 through 2010 are the following:

1. David Carr got sacked a lot when he was their quarterback.
2. Peyton Manning always came up with imaginative ways to beat them.
3. Andre Johnson caught a lot of passes for them.

Beyond that, it’s all kind of a 6-10 blur. But in 2011, the John Doe of the NFL actually broke through with its first AFC South title (thank you, Peyton Manning’s neck!). The defense that had been one of the five worst in the league the year before somehow turned into one of the five best (thank you, Wade Phillips!). And once in the playoffs, the Texans took advantage of their first ever home playoff game to notch their first ever playoff win over the Bengals (thank you, mediocre overachievers who barely snuck into the postseason!)

Of course, the glorious ride came to an end the next week in a close loss at the hands of the Ravens. Now I’ve never met an actual Texans fan in my life, but I can only assume that somewhere in between rookie third-sting quarterback T.J. Yates second and third interceptions the Texans fans that do exist were hearkening back to a quarterback sneak that was run in the second quarter of a November game that they won by four touchdowns. That seemingly meaningless play was the point in which starting quarterback Matt Schaub, who had been enjoying the most efficient year of his career up to that point, was lost for the season with a Lisfranc injury to his foot. The injury was especially cruel to Texans fans not only because it came during the team’s best start ever but also because, with a healthy Schaub at quarterback, the Texans were probably the strongest overall team in the league. In a year in which the strongest Super Bowl contenders seemed to be either all offense and no defense (Packers, Patriots, Saints) or vice versa (49ers, Ravens), the Texans legitimately did everything very well and arguably should have been regarded as the favorite to win the Super Bowl.

But that quickly changed once Schaub and then Matt Leinart were both lost for the season to injuries, leaving the rookie fifth-round pick Yates to flounder his way around the field well before he was ready. Thus, the 2011 Texans joined a proud fraternity of potentially great teams that had their Super Bowl dreams derailed by a major injury. Here’s a look at some of their compadres:

• 1963 New York Giants. The Giants got out to an early lead against the Bears in the 1963 NFL Championship game, but quarterback Y.A. Tittle (who had just set the record for most touchdown passes in a season) suffered a left knee injury late in the first quarter. Tittle later returned to the game, but had to continually throw off his back foot to avoid searing pain. In related news, Tittle threw five interceptions and the Giants lost by four to a Bears team with a quarterback (Bill Wade) so bad a Giants player said afterward, “If the defense doesn’t give him the ball on the five, he’s dead.” Ouch!
• 1965 Baltimore Colts. The Colts started out the season 9-1 but lost both Johnny Unitas to a knee injury in early December and his backup Gary Cuozzo a week after that. Thus, the Colts were forced to start halfback Tom Matte at quarterback in the Western Division playoff game against the Packers at the end of the season. Matte went 5-for-12 for 40 yards in a game the Packers won in overtime. I’m almost positive having a healthy Unitas might have made a difference. (In fairness, Bart Starr did get hurt early in that playoff game as well, setting up an immortal quarterback showdown of Matte and Zeke Bratkowski).
• 1977 Minnesota Vikings. You know, it’s almost as if the Vikings didn’t have very good luck in the seventies. When their defense was arguably the best of all-time, they were stuck with Cuozzo at quarterback and when Fran Tarkenton returned from his New York exile, the defense had receded to just very good status. And in possibly their last best hope for a title, Tarkenton got hurt in 1977, leaving the immortal Bob Lee to lead the Vikings to that missing Super Bowl. Didn’t happen.
• 1986 Chicago Bears. You may remember the Bears of this era also having a pretty decent defense. That Monsters of the Midway defense was good enough to carry the team to a 14-2 record after losing Jim McMahon to a Charles Martin bodyslam but couldn’t overcome his rookie replacement Doug Flutie moistening his trousers in the resulting divisional playoff game against the Redskins. The lesson, as always: Charles Martin should have been suspended for 375 years (approximately).
• 1990 San Francisco 49ers. The 49ers looked like they were on their way to a third straight Super Bowl when Giants defensive end Leonard Marshall knocked Joe Montana out of the NFC Championship game in the fourth quarter. Backup Steve Young and Roger Craig would go on to botch a handoff with just minutes remaining, setting up the Giants’ game-winning field goal and eventual Super Bowl victory. Of course, the ’90 Giants had a little better luck in the playoffs with a backup/non-injured quarterback than the other teams on this list.

Random thoughts

To reiterate: what the Texans did defensively last year compared to 2010 was just incredible. With the additions of Jonathan Joseph at cornerback, Danieal Manning at safety and (perhaps most importantly) Wade Phillips at defensive coordinator, the Texans gave a whopping three fewer Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt defensively in 2011. That’s the difference between tying for last place in the league and tying for first…And they did most of it without Mario Williams, either. After Williams was lost for the season to injury in October, youngsters Connor Barwin, J.J. Watt and Brooks Reed more than picked up the pass-rushing slack. They’ll have to do it again in 2012 with Williams now in Buffalo…For a team that had appears to have a real championship window open, the Texans had an offseason more in line with what a rebuilding team would undertake. In addition to letting the Pro Bowler Williams walk, the Texans also surprisingly cut right tackle Eric Winston, who is one of the best run blockers in the league and instrumental to the Texans’ success in the ground game. Winston is neither particularly old (he turns 29 in November) nor was he particularly expensive, so from the outside at least, the move doesn’t seem to make much sense…

 

Outlook

The Texans will welcome the return of Schaub as their starting quarterback with open arms and, if Andre Johnson can play more than seven games this season, the Texans’ pass offense will once again match their Arian Foster-led run game as one of the most efficient in the league. We will note, however, that the Texans’ defense seems tailor-made for some Plexiglass Principle-related regression this season: remember, Glover Quin and Kareem Jackson still play major roles in this secondary and we would certainly expect any unit that has made such a drastic improvement in one year to give back much of those gains the next. So this year’s Texans team looks like one that will have more in common with the above-average 9-7 version that appeared in 2009 than the Super Bowl contender that appeared for the first ten games of 2011. Fortunately for the Texans, they play in an AFC South that will likely feature three of the ten worst teams in football and being the only above-average team in such a division definitely has its perks. Thus, it appears that the Texans will return to the postseason in 2012 through the sweetest path of all: default.

2012 Projected Point Differential: 381.4-344.8

2012 Average Projection: 9.0-7.0 (1st in AFC South)