2013 COAS/SSLYAR Pigskin Pick’Em: Week 13

Apologies to everyone involved for throwing these picks up late – traveling 370 miles to visit family on Thanksgiving Day doesn’t leave much time for writing NFL synopses, but better late than never! At least that’s what I’m hoping. In the interest of full disclosure, here’s how Lucas and I picked yesterday’s games:

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (-5.5)

Lucas: Packers. I know, Aaron Rodgers isn’t playing, and this isn’t 2011, but remember the last time Matt Flynn played Detroit? Also, it’s Thanksgiving, so Ndamukong Suh is due to do something that reminds us all that he’s a dirty player. If you don’t believe me, Evan Dietrich-Smith’s arm and Matt Schaub’s balls would like a word with you.

Nathaniel: Lions. I predict the Lions will rack up over 500 yards of offense and the Packers won’t crack 100 until James Jones catches a long pass on their last possession of the game. I also predict Aaron Rodgers’ mustache will look awesome on the sideline.

Oakland Raiders at Dallas Cowboys (-9.5)

Lucas: Raiders. This is less about Matt McGloin starting and more about I don’t trust the Cowboys to win by double digits. I think they win; it is November, after all, but I like the points here.

Nathaniel: Raiders. I predict that the Cowboys will find a way to give up a touchdown on their opening kickoff return of the game, but still win anyway. I also predict Sebastian Janikowski will lead an inspiring last second backdoor cover for the Raiders.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-2.5)

Lucas: Ravens. General rule of thumb: take the Ravens at home. Pitt will make this a game, but the Ravens are a better team at home than they are on the road.

Nathaniel: Ravens. I predict the Steelers will score three touchdowns on their final possession but only one of them will stand. I also predict that Emmanuel Sanders will suck at catching passes like he always does.

Okay, fine, I wrote my synopses retroactively – all the picks are accurate, however. Lucas went 1-2 yesterday and I went 2-1. Lucas still leads overall this year by five games. Here’s how we’re picking the rest of Week 13’s games:

Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-0.5)

Lucas: Vikings. Be prepared to hear a lot of this on Sunday, Bears fans.

Nathaniel: Bears. You don’t have to remind me how bad the Bears defense has been this year, but how exactly does a matchup with 2-8-1 team vs. a 6-5 team get called a virtual pick’em? There’s a reason the 2-8-1 team’s only won two games all year.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Cleveland Browns (-7.5)

Lucas: Jaguars. Why am I on a Jaguars kick lately? This was a team that just a month ago was being hyped up as maybe the worst team ever! Hey, morons, still think the best college teams can beat Jacksonville? Also, Brandon Weeden.

Nathaniel: Jaguars. In five short weeks, Browns fans will (Lord-willing) never be subjected to Brandon Weeden’s sadistic forms of torture ever again. For the love of God, please find something else to do at 1 o’clock on Sundays in December, Browns fans.

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-4.5)

Lucas: Colts. Indy has been kind of awful lately, but coming home to face a mediocre Titans team might be just what the doctor ordered.

Nathaniel: Titans. I don’t like having to put my faith in Ryan Fitzpatrick, but I really don’t think the Colts are a good team right now and Reggie Wayne isn’t walking through that door any time soon.

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (-1.5)

Lucas: Jets. Maybe Nathaniel is right and the Jets can only win in odd numbered weeks.

Nathaniel: Dolphins. Sure hope I’m wrong this week, though!

New England Patriots at Houston Texans (+8.5)

Lucas: Patriots. I’d make a “Bill Belichick takes the wind” joke here, but it wouldn’t fit indoors. What also won’t fit indoors will be the sound of the boos coming from the Texans fans after another clunker.

Nathaniel: Patriots. Who thought in August that the Texans would be the favorite to secure the #1 pick in the 2014 draft going into December? This after starting 2-0, too! What a bizarre tailspin this team’s been in.

Arizona Cardinals at Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5)

Lucas: Cardinals. I know the Eagles offense has been pretty good, but why is there no real fear in Vegas of the Arizona defense? I feel like they can contain Nick Foles and company.

Nathaniel: Cardinals. The NFC representative in this year’s Super Bowl seems likely to be either Seattle or New Orleans, but Arizona would be a pretty intriguing dark horse if they could sneak in as a wild-card. They’re secretly one of the ten best teams in the league and nobody would want to see that defense in January. This is definitely the best of the early games.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (-8.5)

Lucas: Panthers. This is a pretty big spread considering Tampa has won three in a row. Carolina has had a resurgence though, and I’m not sure they can contain Cam Newton and company.

Nathaniel: Buccaneers. Is Greg Schiano actually saving his job now? Cue to all seven Buccaneers fans screaming, “NOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!”

Atlanta Falcons at Buffalo Bills (-3.5)

Lucas: Falcons. As bad as the Falcons are, I don’t think they’re 2-9 bad. Give them one.

Nathaniel: Falcons. Only because the Bills’ excellent home-field advantage goes out the window when they play in Toronto.

St. Louis Rams at San Francisco 49ers (-9.5)

Lucas: Rams. To my chagrin, I picked the Rams last time, but I’m sticking to my guns. Mainly because I think Tavon Austin is still running.

Nathaniel: Rams. The Rams are back to being the team Jeff Fisher always hopes his teams will be at the end of the year – .500 and not having any chance at the playoffs, but a real pain in the tucus to play. Doesn’t seem likely that the 49ers will have enough offensive firepower to make this line stand up.

Cincinnati Bengals at San Diego Chargers (-1.5)

Lucas: Bengals. I’m already supporting one ginger quarterback. Why not another?

Nathaniel: Chargers. If anyone of those AFC wild-card hopefuls in that 5-6 quagmire has a real shot of reaching 9-7, it’s probably the Chargers. They’ve got four home games left and they may very well have the best offense in the league. They also may very well have the worst defense, but let’s forget about that for now.

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (+4.5)

Lucas: Broncos. Andy Reid was going to take the wind, but he was too busy wolfing down his 34th barbecued turkey.

Nathaniel: Broncos. Just can’t envision the Chiefs scoring enough to win this game.

New York Giants at Washington Redskins (+1.5)

Lucas: Giants. I just don’t trust the Skins this year. I feel like there’s too much dysfunction in that locker room and RGIII isn’t the same and their defense sucks… there’s probably more, but I think that suffices.

Nathaniel: Giants. Looks like NBC forgot they can flex games out of Sunday Night Football late in the year. Blech.

New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks (-5.5)

Lucas: Seahawks. Originally, I was going to pick the Saints. I feel like they’re one of only a handful of teams that can take the Seahawks in Seattle. Then I saw the weather forecast for Monday and remembered that Drew Brees sucks in the cold. Also, the last time the Saints were in town, Marshawn Lynch caused an earthquake.

Nathaniel: Saints. Nothing much on the line here, just home field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs. Let’s enjoy this one, folks!

2013 records:

Lucas: 92-88 (7-7 last week, 1-2 so far this week)

Nathaniel: 87-93 (7-7 last week, 2-1 so far this week)

Also, here’s this week’s Predictive Yards per Play rankings (not including Thanksgiving’s games):

Offensive Predictive Yards per Play Rankings, through Week 12:

Rank	Team	Yards	Plays	Passing TDs	INTs	Rushing TDs	Fumbles	SOS	Predictive Yards per Play
1	San Diego Chargers	4485	722	22	8	6	8	-0.22	6.91
2	New Orleans Saints	4565	739	28	8	7	9	-0.06	6.67
3	Green Bay Packers	4668	746	17	10	11	13	-0.02	6.42
4	Atlanta Falcons	3830	682	18	12	5	12	0.42	5.93
5	Denver Broncos	4967	803	36	7	14	26	-0.32	5.62
6	Indianapolis Colts	3738	692	15	8	11	6	0.22	5.59
7	Philadelphia Eagles	4536	719	21	7	10	14	-0.25	5.58
8	Chicago Bears	4097	703	20	9	9	13	-0.04	5.56
9	Detroit Lions	4533	762	24	12	9	17	-0.19	5.51
10	Carolina Panthers	3507	711	17	9	11	10	0.27	5.46
11	Seattle Seahawks	3943	673	20	6	11	20	0.02	5.44
12	New England Patriots	4080	784	17	7	12	19	0.15	5.04
13	Houston Texans	3998	764	16	13	2	14	0.19	5.03
14	Tennessee Titans	3672	696	15	8	10	20	0.08	4.89
15	Pittsburgh Steelers	3734	716	19	10	4	12	0.13	4.87
16	Dallas Cowboys	3605	653	23	7	6	12	-0.17	4.82
17	Cincinnati Bengals	4010	756	21	15	7	15	0.12	4.80
18	St. Louis Rams	3571	687	18	6	6	15	0.02	4.77
19	Washington Redskins	4311	768	14	13	12	18	-0.54	4.76
20	San Francisco 49ers	3394	651	14	7	15	16	0.10	4.50
21	Arizona Cardinals	3674	694	16	15	8	17	0.09	4.44
22	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	3337	705	16	7	4	13	-0.02	4.41
23	Kansas City Chiefs	3595	728	14	5	9	12	-0.15	4.38
24	Minnesota Vikings	3624	687	11	13	15	17	-0.15	4.35
25	Buffalo Bills	3642	774	12	9	9	20	0.35	4.34
26	Cleveland Browns	3548	751	18	13	1	13	0.13	4.33
27	Miami Dolphins	3410	683	15	12	7	10	-0.08	4.25
28	Baltimore Ravens	3397	749	14	14	6	11	0.17	4.14
29	Oakland Raiders	3671	692	11	12	10	17	-0.22	4.11
30	New York Jets	3468	702	9	18	6	13	0.12	3.92
31	Jacksonville Jaguars	3113	692	5	16	7	13	0.20	3.68
32	New York Giants	3563	694	14	18	7	16	-0.53	3.50

Defensive Predictive Yards per Play Rankings, through Week 12:

Rank	Team	Yards	Plays	Passing TDs	INTs	Rushing TDs	Fumbles	SOS	Predictive Yards per Play
1	San Francisco 49ers	3428	712	11	12	9	17	0.28	3.77
2	Arizona Cardinals	3488	729	19	15	4	12	0.27	3.84
3	Seattle Seahawks	3226	697	12	16	4	23	-0.07	3.90
4	Baltimore Ravens	3619	716	17	9	1	17	-0.15	4.26
5	New York Jets	3552	715	20	6	6	15	0.05	4.30
6	Cincinnati Bengals	3444	745	14	12	4	12	-0.19	4.34
7	New York Giants	3688	729	16	12	7	16	0.16	4.36
8	Houston Texans	3194	644	18	4	8	11	-0.06	4.38
9	Cleveland Browns	3367	757	18	8	9	9	-0.19	4.40
10	Carolina Panthers	3272	658	9	15	3	14	-0.26	4.47
11	Kansas City Chiefs	3860	718	13	12	6	17	-0.13	4.50
12	Tennessee Titans	3655	692	8	9	15	17	-0.08	4.64
13	New Orleans Saints	3409	652	11	10	9	13	-0.13	4.68
14	Buffalo Bills	3826	752	22	16	4	10	-0.22	4.70
15	Miami Dolphins	3944	764	12	14	11	9	0.32	4.74
16	Oakland Raiders	3929	716	21	7	7	22	0.05	4.76
17	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	3807	702	22	15	5	12	0.34	4.76
18	Denver Broncos	4158	767	21	13	10	18	-0.09	4.76
19	New England Patriots	3961	783	18	13	5	17	-0.04	4.77
20	St. Louis Rams	3942	688	17	12	12	20	0.11	4.83
21	Pittsburgh Steelers	3775	711	13	7	13	14	-0.27	5.12
22	Detroit Lions	4013	691	21	11	5	11	-0.07	5.12
23	Jacksonville Jaguars	4134	721	20	5	15	19	0.14	5.14
24	Washington Redskins	4203	696	22	10	15	10	0.34	5.36
25	Chicago Bears	4136	685	16	14	14	19	0.10	5.43
26	Philadelphia Eagles	4597	824	17	13	7	15	-0.08	5.69
27	Indianapolis Colts	4060	696	16	8	9	14	-0.03	5.71
28	Minnesota Vikings	4411	786	24	8	13	12	0.21	5.83
29	Green Bay Packers	3956	700	19	4	9	11	-0.24	5.96
30	Dallas Cowboys	4754	772	22	12	11	14	0.10	6.10
31	Atlanta Falcons	4193	692	23	6	8	7	0.08	6.43
32	San Diego Chargers	4285	668	18	6	9	10	-0.11	6.69

Predictive Yards per Play Differential, through Week 12:

Rank	Team	PY/P Diff.	Remaining SOS	Projected Wins
1	New Orleans Saints	1.99	12.33	12.40
2	Seattle Seahawks	1.54	6.52	13.46
3	Carolina Panthers	0.99	7.96	10.75
4	Denver Broncos	0.85	1.16	12.09
5	San Francisco 49ers	0.73	-0.85	9.96
6	Houston Texans	0.64	-1.72	4.65
7	Arizona Cardinals	0.60	10.14	9.67
8	Cincinnati Bengals	0.47	-12.80	10.16
9	Green Bay Packers	0.45	-6.68	8.14
10	Detroit Lions	0.38	-16.46	9.04
11	New England Patriots	0.27	-3.74	10.82
12	Tennessee Titans	0.25	0.00	7.62
13	San Diego Chargers	0.23	-9.55	7.88
14	Chicago Bears	0.13	-13.44	8.81
15	St. Louis Rams	-0.06	22.79	6.55
16	Cleveland Browns	-0.07	-6.90	6.44
17	Philadelphia Eagles	-0.11	-11.80	8.65
18	Indianapolis Colts	-0.12	-6.65	9.16
19	Kansas City Chiefs	-0.12	-2.57	11.51
20	Baltimore Ravens	-0.12	-5.79	7.57
21	Pittsburgh Steelers	-0.25	-4.73	7.61
22	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	-0.34	14.33	4.65
23	Buffalo Bills	-0.37	-12.65	6.52
24	New York Jets	-0.38	-8.94	7.26
25	Miami Dolphins	-0.49	-4.94	7.31
26	Atlanta Falcons	-0.50	2.09	4.00
27	Washington Redskins	-0.60	-22.26	5.57
28	Oakland Raiders	-0.65	0.08	5.91
29	New York Giants	-0.86	4.65	5.62
30	Dallas Cowboys	-1.29	-11.67	8.11
31	Jacksonville Jaguars	-1.46	-8.96	3.60
32	Minnesota Vikings	-1.48	-4.63	4.15

Projected AFC Playoff Picture, through Week 12:

RDS PER PLAY RANKINGS

Busy week offline for me, so this will mostly just be a data dump. One important thing to note: Denver’s win over Kansas City Sunday Night reinstalled the Broncos as slight favorites to win the AFC West and, by extension, home field advantage throughout the playoffs in Predictive Yards per Play’s eyes. Of course, the rematch at Arrowhead Stadium on Thanksgiving Weekend will ultimately be the deciding factor.

Offensive Predictive Yards per Play Rankings, through Week 11:

Rank	Team	Yards	Plays	Passing TDs	INTs	Rushing TDs	Fumbles	SOS	Predictive Yards per Play
1	San Diego Chargers	3994	655	19	8	4	7	-0.26	6.78
2	New Orleans Saints	4191	680	26	8	7	9	0.05	6.61
3	Green Bay Packers	4174	657	16	10	9	13	0.10	6.54
4	Denver Broncos	4555	717	34	6	13	21	-0.30	5.79
5	Atlanta Falcons	3475	616	18	12	4	11	0.38	5.79
6	Detroit Lions	4143	690	21	8	9	14	-0.16	5.72
7	Indianapolis Colts	3499	637	14	7	11	6	0.09	5.66
8	Philadelphia Eagles	4536	719	21	7	10	14	-0.18	5.63
9	Carolina Panthers	3212	642	16	8	10	10	0.23	5.55
10	Chicago Bears	3673	629	18	8	8	10	-0.06	5.50
11	Seattle Seahawks	3943	673	20	6	11	20	-0.02	5.39
12	New England Patriots	3640	700	14	7	11	13	0.15	5.20
13	Houston Texans	3780	707	16	12	2	14	0.27	5.20
14	Washington Redskins	4121	710	14	12	12	17	-0.67	4.94
15	Pittsburgh Steelers	3432	648	17	10	4	12	0.13	4.88
16	Cincinnati Bengals	4010	756	21	15	7	15	0.12	4.79
17	Dallas Cowboys	3278	591	21	6	6	11	-0.26	4.67
18	Tennessee Titans	3246	623	13	8	10	17	0.08	4.65
19	San Francisco 49ers	3090	592	11	7	15	13	0.18	4.60
20	St. Louis Rams	3165	634	17	6	3	15	0.05	4.51
21	Kansas City Chiefs	3200	669	11	4	7	11	0.03	4.47
22	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	3108	656	14	7	4	12	-0.04	4.46
23	Minnesota Vikings	3177	608	10	13	14	15	-0.03	4.38
24	Cleveland Browns	3181	678	17	12	1	10	0.15	4.36
25	Buffalo Bills	3642	774	12	9	9	20	0.35	4.33
26	Arizona Cardinals	3264	623	14	15	7	16	0.11	4.16
27	Miami Dolphins	3078	621	14	11	7	10	-0.11	4.16
28	Baltimore Ravens	3085	687	13	13	6	11	0.15	4.04
29	New York Jets	3248	647	9	16	6	12	0.02	4.00
30	Oakland Raiders	3318	637	10	11	10	15	-0.26	3.92
31	Jacksonville Jaguars	2780	627	5	16	6	12	0.19	3.55
32	New York Giants	3207	632	12	18	7	15	-0.40	3.51

Defensive Predictive Yards per Play Rankings, through Week 11:

Rank	Team	Yards	Plays	Passing TDs	INTs	Rushing TDs	Fumbles	SOS	Predictive Yards per Play
1	Arizona Cardinals	3249	674	18	14	4	12	0.23	3.88
2	San Francisco 49ers	3238	654	11	11	9	16	0.26	3.92
3	Seattle Seahawks	3226	697	12	16	4	23	-0.11	3.93
4	New York Jets	3240	653	19	5	6	15	0.11	4.21
5	New York Giants	3361	667	14	11	7	15	0.24	4.24
6	Cincinnati Bengals	3444	745	14	12	4	12	-0.15	4.29
7	Baltimore Ravens	3399	661	17	7	1	16	-0.01	4.30
8	Cleveland Browns	3065	689	16	8	9	9	-0.17	4.33
9	Houston Texans	2861	579	18	4	7	10	-0.05	4.38
10	Kansas City Chiefs	3369	651	10	12	4	16	-0.30	4.39
11	Carolina Panthers	2940	596	8	14	3	14	-0.25	4.43
12	Tennessee Titans	3302	637	7	8	15	15	-0.03	4.53
13	Oakland Raiders	3503	643	19	7	7	19	0.09	4.61
14	New Orleans Saints	3054	586	11	10	8	12	-0.27	4.63
15	Buffalo Bills	3826	752	22	16	4	10	-0.19	4.66
16	St. Louis Rams	3518	614	15	11	11	17	0.05	4.81
17	Miami Dolphins	3649	695	11	13	10	9	0.28	4.82
18	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	3417	630	19	11	5	9	0.29	4.90
19	Denver Broncos	3718	683	18	13	9	12	-0.15	4.93
20	New England Patriots	3549	697	16	12	4	12	-0.10	4.95
21	Pittsburgh Steelers	3408	638	12	6	13	11	-0.25	5.21
22	Chicago Bears	3730	632	15	14	11	19	0.15	5.22
23	Detroit Lions	3784	642	19	11	5	10	-0.04	5.25
24	Jacksonville Jaguars	3916	664	20	4	15	19	0.10	5.33
25	Washington Redskins	3899	637	19	10	15	7	0.44	5.38
26	Indianapolis Colts	3650	625	14	8	8	13	-0.02	5.56
27	Philadelphia Eagles	4597	824	17	13	7	15	-0.06	5.65
28	Minnesota Vikings	3917	697	23	8	11	12	0.14	5.86
29	Green Bay Packers	3509	621	18	4	8	9	-0.18	5.94
30	Dallas Cowboys	4398	710	20	12	11	13	0.26	5.96
31	Atlanta Falcons	3819	633	21	6	8	7	-0.08	6.53
32	San Diego Chargers	3890	609	15	5	7	9	-0.07	6.77

Predictive Yards per Play Differential, through Week 12:

Rank	Team	PY/P Diff.	Remaining SOS	Projected Wins
1	New Orleans Saints	1.99	12.33	12.40
2	Seattle Seahawks	1.54	6.52	13.46
3	Carolina Panthers	0.99	7.96	10.75
4	Denver Broncos	0.85	1.16	12.09
5	San Francisco 49ers	0.73	-0.85	9.96
6	Houston Texans	0.64	-1.72	4.65
7	Arizona Cardinals	0.60	10.14	9.67
8	Cincinnati Bengals	0.47	-12.80	10.16
9	Green Bay Packers	0.45	-6.68	8.14
10	Detroit Lions	0.38	-16.46	9.04
11	New England Patriots	0.27	-3.74	10.82
12	Tennessee Titans	0.25	0.00	7.62
13	San Diego Chargers	0.23	-9.55	7.88
14	Chicago Bears	0.13	-13.44	8.81
15	St. Louis Rams	-0.06	22.79	6.55
16	Cleveland Browns	-0.07	-6.90	6.44
17	Philadelphia Eagles	-0.11	-11.80	8.65
18	Indianapolis Colts	-0.12	-6.65	9.16
19	Kansas City Chiefs	-0.12	-2.57	11.51
20	Baltimore Ravens	-0.12	-5.79	7.57
21	Pittsburgh Steelers	-0.25	-4.73	7.61
22	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	-0.34	14.33	4.65
23	Buffalo Bills	-0.37	-12.65	6.52
24	New York Jets	-0.38	-8.94	7.26
25	Miami Dolphins	-0.49	-4.94	7.31
26	Atlanta Falcons	-0.50	2.09	4.00
27	Washington Redskins	-0.60	-22.26	5.57
28	Oakland Raiders	-0.65	0.08	5.91
29	New York Giants	-0.86	4.65	5.62
30	Dallas Cowboys	-1.29	-11.67	8.11
31	Jacksonville Jaguars	-1.46	-8.96	3.60
32	Minnesota Vikings	-1.48	-4.63	4.15

Projected AFC Playoff Picture, through Week 12:

1. Denver (12.1 wins)
2. New England (10.8 wins)
3. Cincinnati (10.2 wins)
4. Indianapolis (9.2 wins)
5. Kansas City (11.5 wins)
6. San Diego (7.9 wins)

In the hunt: Tennessee (7.6 wins), Pittsburgh (7.6 wins), Baltimore (7.6 wins), Miami (7.3 wins), NY Jets (7.3 wins), Buffalo (6.5 wins), Cleveland (6.4 wins)

Mediocre: Oakland (5.9 wins)

Teddy Bridgewater Sweepstakes: Houston (4.7 wins), Jacksonville (3.6 wins)

Projected NFC Playoff Picture, through Week 12:

1. Seattle (13.5 wins)
2. New Orleans (12.4 wins)
3. Detroit (9.0 wins)
4. Philadelphia (8.7 wins)
5. Carolina (10.8 wins)
6. San Francisco (10.0 wins)

In the hunt: Arizona (9.7 wins), Chicago (8.8 wins), Green Bay (8.1 wins), Dallas (8.1 wins)

Mediocre: St. Louis (6.6 wins), NY Giants (5.6 wins), Washington (5.6 wins)

Teddy Bridgewater Sweepstakes: Tampa Bay (4.7 wins), Atlanta (4.0 wins), Minnesota (4.2 wins)

Week 12 Predictive Yards per Play Rankings

Busy week offline for me, so this will mostly just be a data dump. One important thing to note: Denver’s win over Kansas City Sunday Night reinstalled the Broncos as slight favorites to win the AFC West and, by extension, home field advantage throughout the playoffs in Predictive Yards per Play’s eyes. Of course, the rematch at Arrowhead Stadium on Thanksgiving Weekend will ultimately be the deciding factor.

Offensive Predictive Yards per Play Rankings, through Week 11:

Rank	Team	Yards	Plays	Passing TDs	INTs	Rushing TDs	Fumbles	SOS	Predictive Yards per Play
1	San Diego Chargers	3994	655	19	8	4	7	-0.26	6.78
2	New Orleans Saints	4191	680	26	8	7	9	0.05	6.61
3	Green Bay Packers	4174	657	16	10	9	13	0.10	6.54
4	Denver Broncos	4555	717	34	6	13	21	-0.30	5.79
5	Atlanta Falcons	3475	616	18	12	4	11	0.38	5.79
6	Detroit Lions	4143	690	21	8	9	14	-0.16	5.72
7	Indianapolis Colts	3499	637	14	7	11	6	0.09	5.66
8	Philadelphia Eagles	4536	719	21	7	10	14	-0.18	5.63
9	Carolina Panthers	3212	642	16	8	10	10	0.23	5.55
10	Chicago Bears	3673	629	18	8	8	10	-0.06	5.50
11	Seattle Seahawks	3943	673	20	6	11	20	-0.02	5.39
12	New England Patriots	3640	700	14	7	11	13	0.15	5.20
13	Houston Texans	3780	707	16	12	2	14	0.27	5.20
14	Washington Redskins	4121	710	14	12	12	17	-0.67	4.94
15	Pittsburgh Steelers	3432	648	17	10	4	12	0.13	4.88
16	Cincinnati Bengals	4010	756	21	15	7	15	0.12	4.79
17	Dallas Cowboys	3278	591	21	6	6	11	-0.26	4.67
18	Tennessee Titans	3246	623	13	8	10	17	0.08	4.65
19	San Francisco 49ers	3090	592	11	7	15	13	0.18	4.60
20	St. Louis Rams	3165	634	17	6	3	15	0.05	4.51
21	Kansas City Chiefs	3200	669	11	4	7	11	0.03	4.47
22	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	3108	656	14	7	4	12	-0.04	4.46
23	Minnesota Vikings	3177	608	10	13	14	15	-0.03	4.38
24	Cleveland Browns	3181	678	17	12	1	10	0.15	4.36
25	Buffalo Bills	3642	774	12	9	9	20	0.35	4.33
26	Arizona Cardinals	3264	623	14	15	7	16	0.11	4.16
27	Miami Dolphins	3078	621	14	11	7	10	-0.11	4.16
28	Baltimore Ravens	3085	687	13	13	6	11	0.15	4.04
29	New York Jets	3248	647	9	16	6	12	0.02	4.00
30	Oakland Raiders	3318	637	10	11	10	15	-0.26	3.92
31	Jacksonville Jaguars	2780	627	5	16	6	12	0.19	3.55
32	New York Giants	3207	632	12	18	7	15	-0.40	3.51

Defensive Predictive Yards per Play Rankings, through Week 11:

Rank	Team	Yards	Plays	Passing TDs	INTs	Rushing TDs	Fumbles	SOS	Predictive Yards per Play
1	Arizona Cardinals	3249	674	18	14	4	12	0.23	3.88
2	San Francisco 49ers	3238	654	11	11	9	16	0.26	3.92
3	Seattle Seahawks	3226	697	12	16	4	23	-0.11	3.93
4	New York Jets	3240	653	19	5	6	15	0.11	4.21
5	New York Giants	3361	667	14	11	7	15	0.24	4.24
6	Cincinnati Bengals	3444	745	14	12	4	12	-0.15	4.29
7	Baltimore Ravens	3399	661	17	7	1	16	-0.01	4.30
8	Cleveland Browns	3065	689	16	8	9	9	-0.17	4.33
9	Houston Texans	2861	579	18	4	7	10	-0.05	4.38
10	Kansas City Chiefs	3369	651	10	12	4	16	-0.30	4.39
11	Carolina Panthers	2940	596	8	14	3	14	-0.25	4.43
12	Tennessee Titans	3302	637	7	8	15	15	-0.03	4.53
13	Oakland Raiders	3503	643	19	7	7	19	0.09	4.61
14	New Orleans Saints	3054	586	11	10	8	12	-0.27	4.63
15	Buffalo Bills	3826	752	22	16	4	10	-0.19	4.66
16	St. Louis Rams	3518	614	15	11	11	17	0.05	4.81
17	Miami Dolphins	3649	695	11	13	10	9	0.28	4.82
18	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	3417	630	19	11	5	9	0.29	4.90
19	Denver Broncos	3718	683	18	13	9	12	-0.15	4.93
20	New England Patriots	3549	697	16	12	4	12	-0.10	4.95
21	Pittsburgh Steelers	3408	638	12	6	13	11	-0.25	5.21
22	Chicago Bears	3730	632	15	14	11	19	0.15	5.22
23	Detroit Lions	3784	642	19	11	5	10	-0.04	5.25
24	Jacksonville Jaguars	3916	664	20	4	15	19	0.10	5.33
25	Washington Redskins	3899	637	19	10	15	7	0.44	5.38
26	Indianapolis Colts	3650	625	14	8	8	13	-0.02	5.56
27	Philadelphia Eagles	4597	824	17	13	7	15	-0.06	5.65
28	Minnesota Vikings	3917	697	23	8	11	12	0.14	5.86
29	Green Bay Packers	3509	621	18	4	8	9	-0.18	5.94
30	Dallas Cowboys	4398	710	20	12	11	13	0.26	5.96
31	Atlanta Falcons	3819	633	21	6	8	7	-0.08	6.53
32	San Diego Chargers	3890	609	15	5	7	9	-0.07	6.77

Predictive Yards per Play Differential, through Week 11:

Rank	Team	PY/P Diff.	Remaining SOS	Projected Wins
1	New Orleans Saints	1.98	7.98	12.29
2	Seattle Seahawks	1.46	6.34	13.27
3	Carolina Panthers	1.12	7.64	10.48
4	Denver Broncos	0.87	4.93	12.74
5	Houston Texans	0.82	-14.42	5.71
6	San Francisco 49ers	0.68	-7.83	9.70
7	Green Bay Packers	0.60	-17.88	8.36
8	Cincinnati Bengals	0.50	-16.10	10.14
9	Detroit Lions	0.47	-23.03	9.80
10	Chicago Bears	0.28	-13.43	9.34
11	Arizona Cardinals	0.28	1.87	9.28
12	New England Patriots	0.25	0.04	10.17
13	Tennessee Titans	0.12	-2.04	7.05
14	Indianapolis Colts	0.09	-3.48	9.64
15	Kansas City Chiefs	0.07	-2.35	12.14
16	Cleveland Browns	0.03	-11.28	7.12
17	San Diego Chargers	0.02	-4.80	7.25
18	Philadelphia Eagles	-0.02	-15.31	8.74
19	New York Jets	-0.21	-8.92	7.83
20	Baltimore Ravens	-0.26	-11.30	7.07
21	St. Louis Rams	-0.30	16.84	5.96
22	Pittsburgh Steelers	-0.33	-5.21	7.08
23	Buffalo Bills	-0.33	-21.77	6.77
24	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	-0.44	18.84	3.81
25	Washington Redskins	-0.45	-21.82	6.01
26	Miami Dolphins	-0.67	-1.34	7.42
27	Oakland Raiders	-0.70	-0.36	6.21
28	New York Giants	-0.73	-4.45	6.32
29	Atlanta Falcons	-0.74	11.68	4.07
30	Dallas Cowboys	-1.29	-12.84	7.47
31	Minnesota Vikings	-1.48	1.43	3.75
32	Jacksonville Jaguars	-1.78	-2.10	2.34

Projected AFC Playoff Picture, through Week 11:

1. Denver (12.7 wins)
2. New England (10.2 wins)
3. Cincinnati (10.1 wins)
4. Indianapolis (9.6 wins)
5. Kansas City (12.1 wins)
6. NY Jets (7.8 wins)

In the hunt: Miami (7.4 wins), San Diego (7.3 wins), Cleveland (7.1 wins), Pittsburgh (7.1 wins), Baltimore (7.1 wins), Tennessee (7.1 wins), Buffalo (6.8 wins), Oakland (6.2 wins)

Mediocre: Houston (5.7 wins)

Teddy Bridgewater Sweepstakes: Jacksonville (2.3 wins)

Projected NFC Playoff Picture, through Week 11:

1. Seattle (13.3 wins)
2. New Orleans (12.3 wins)
3. Detroit (9.8 wins)
4. Philadelphia (8.7 wins)
5. Carolina (10.5 wins)
6. San Francisco (9.7 wins)

In the hunt: Chicago (9.3 wins), Arizona (9.3 wins), Green Bay (8.4 wins), Dallas (7.5 wins)

Mediocre: NY Giants (6.3 wins), Washington (6.0 wins), St. Louis (6.0 wins)

Teddy Bridgewater Sweepstakes: Atlanta (4.1 wins), Tampa Bay (3.8 wins), Minnesota (3.8 wins)

2013 COAS/SSLYAR Pigskin Pick’Em: Week 11

Here are this week’s picks against the spread courtesy of Confessions of a Sportscaster and yours truly, followed by Week 10’s Predictive Yards per Play Rankings at the very end if you’re interested. Last week, I went 10-4 and Lucas went 5-9, so Lucas’s lead got a little less lopsided. He still leads by four games overall with seven weeks left. This week, we only disagree on three games, which are…detailed below for your enjoyment, along with the eleven games we agreed upon.

Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (+3.5)

Lucas: Colts. Look, I have no idea what happened to Indy on Sunday either (my supervisor from Indy blames himself for not being able to watch much of it until the very end), but if Tennessee can’t beat freaking Jacksonville, unless the spread is really huge, why should I pick the Titans?

Nathaniel: Titans. The Colts have had one of the highest variance defenses in the league this season – they’ve alternated between looking dominant (at San Francisco and home against Denver) and looking awful (the opener against Oakland and last week’s blowout loss to the Rams). Ryan Fitzpatrick will give them plenty of chances to look good tonight, but he’s also capable of putting up big numbers if their level of play is like last week’s.

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+1.5)

Lucas: Buccaneers. It’s amazing that, at least for a week, this was the “stable” football team compared to its opponent. Don’t know that we can say that here, but I figure Revis Island becomes a bit of a hotspot again.

Nathaniel: Buccaneers. The wheels have completely fallen off in Atlanta, which is probably a better harbinger for their chances next season than if they had gamely held down the fort after Julio Jones’ injury and wound up in the neighborhood of 7-9. The way things are going now, it certainly looks like a top-five draft pick and an opportunity to properly revamp a truly awful defense is in play for the Falcons. This is really a game where it would be in both teams’ better interests to lose.

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (+1.5)

Lucas: Jets. Based on the last two weeks, I can’t take the Bills seriously. Then again, when could any of us take the Bills seriously?

Nathaniel: Jets. After each of their nearest foes for the last wild-card slot in the AFC lost last week, the Jets somehow, someway have become a favorite to make the playoffs. That they’ve been able to do this with yet another shaky quarterback and lack of talent at the skill positions speaks to how good a coach Rex Ryan really is. Playing at Buffalo’s been tricky for everyone this season, but EJ Manuel’s scattershot accuracy doesn’t inspire much confidence right now.

Baltimore Ravens at Chicago Bears (-2.5)

Lucas: Bears. Josh McCown has looked pretty good when pressed into service. Were this game in Baltimore I’d think twice, but the Ravens aren’t the same team away from M&T.

Nathaniel: Bears. The one-two punch of Charles Tillman’s torn triceps and being swept by the Lions probably leaves too steep a climb for the Bears to make their way back into the playoffs this year. The Ravens hardly seem like the type of team who can exploit the Bears’ rash of injuries of defense, however, so that truth may not yet be apparent on Sunday.

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5)

Lucas: Browns. Maybe I’m putting too much faith in a not-that-great Cleveland team. Maybe it’s more so “Cincy has found ways to lose two games they could (and maybe even should) have won.”

Nathaniel: Browns. It’s probably a bit much to think the Browns will actually win outright in Cincinnati (though I am leaning towards them being able to cover), but if they could accomplish that, they would accomplish a season sweep of the Bengals and their next two games are home dates against the Steelers and Jaguars. If the Bengals aren’t careful Sunday, the AFC North could actually turn into a real race again.

Detroit Lions at Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5)

Lucas: Lions. Did I Google “Pittsburgh Steelers Bee Uniforms” before the season, find this news article about how they’re wearing them this week, then set a reminder on my phone to make sure I didn’t pick Pittsburgh out of sheer spite against those hideous things? Of course not; that would be silly. I remembered that they were wearing them this week without needing the reminder on my phone to go off, then still picked against Pittsburgh out of sheer spite against those hideous things.

Nathaniel: Lions. There’s no team in the league that hopes Aaron Rodgers’ recovery from his fractured collarbone continues to drag longer and longer than the Lions – each passing week that Scott Tolzien starts makes the first Lions’ division title in 20 years look all the more likely.

Oakland Raiders at Houston Texans (-6.5)

Lucas: Raiders. I’m sorry, but why is Houston favored by this much, exactly? Not that I trust the Raiders either after they choked away the Giants game, but I’m taking the points.

Nathaniel: Texans. Terrelle Pryor’s been electric as a runner this year, but only Brandon Weeden and Josh Freeman have lower Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt figures as passers this season. If he is truly going to be the Raiders quarterback of the future, he has to start doing more through the air or I’d have to believe Raiders GM Reggie McKenzie would take a long look at this year’s deep quarterback class in the draft.

Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5)

Lucas: Redskins. Don’t get me wrong, Nick Foles has looked good. But this has the makings of a shootout much like we had in Week 1, only this time I think RG3 has the firepower from the get-go to keep up.

Nathaniel: Redskins. In a vacuum, the fact that the Eagles have four home games remaining out of their final six games overall would make them the NFC East favorite over the Cowboys. Well, that and the fact they’re a considerably better team than the Cowboys. But so far this year, the Eagles are 0-4 at home and their tendency has been to start wobbling as soon as the public starts to believe in them again. If the Redskins lose this game, they’re done: they’d be 2.5 games behind the Eagles and would lose the head-to-head tiebreaker. So for this week, erring on the side of desperation doesn’t seem like a bad idea.

Arizona Cardinals at Jacksonville Jaguars (+6.5)

Lucas: Cardinals. 

Nathaniel: Cardinals. Arizona is suddenly 5-4, owners of possibly the best defense in the league and just a game back in the wild-card chase. It seems next-to-impossible that they could really catch Carolina or San Francisco by year’s end, but their schedule isn’t too taxing the rest of the way. They get to face Indianapolis and San Francisco at home and the Eagles in Philadelphia, which is where you apparently want to play the Eagles this year. I can’t imagine them beating the Seahawks in Seattle in Week 16 unless the Seahawks have home-field advantage all wrapped up by then, but every other game remaining on Arizona’s schedule is winnable the rest of the way. Don’t sleep on them.

San Diego Chargers at Miami Dolphins (+1.5)

Lucas: Chargers. I like what Phillip Rivers has done this year. That, and until Miami gets its collective crap together, I’m not sure I can trust them.

Nathaniel: Chargers. Possibly an AFC Wild-Card elimination game for the loser, although the Jets aren’t likely to run away from anyone in December. The Chargers don’t have near enough a pass rush to take advantage of the Dolphins’ terrible offensive line – but then again, the Dolphins probably don’t have near enough offensive firepower to take advantage of the Chargers’ horrible defense.

Green Bay Packers at New York Giants (-6.5)

Lucas: Giants. Look, I love how well the Immortal Scott Tolzien did filling in for Seneca Wallace, given the circumstances (you know, other than that one pick). And I know Eli is prone to throwing picks, but Green Bay’s defense is awful, and Scott Tolzien isn’t Aaron Rodgers. Thus:

Nathaniel: Packers. Scott Tolzien’s arm strength (or lack thereof) last Sunday made Jeff Tuel look like Jeff George, but the Giants’ offense simply can’t be trusted to cover even a medium-sized line like this right now. The NFL’s decision to flex this from Sunday Night Football a few weeks ago looks more prescient by the second.

Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks (-13.5)

Lucas: Seahawks. Christian Ponder is not going into CenturyLink and winning a football game there. Heck, I don’t think this is much of a game.

Nathaniel: Seahawks. A contrarian might point to Seattle’s last two home victories (decided by a total of ten points) and decide to take a calculated risk on the Seahawks sleepwalking through another first half at home and allowing the Vikings to cover. I am not that contrarian.

San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints (-3.5)

Lucas: Saints. After a year off, we’re back to the “These guys scare me” Saints instead of the “Our assistant head coach moonlights as a janitor on Tuesdays” Saints. The Superdome is this year’s Georgia Dome, and San Francisco doesn’t seem as good this year.

Nathaniel: Saints. The Saints remain the #1 team in this week’s Predictive Yards per Play rankings after having just about as dominant a performance from the line of scrimmage as you can possibly have against the Cowboys. The 49ers should be able to take advantage of the Saints’ one weakness – run defense – but it’s another question entirely as to whether Colin Kaepernick can match Drew Brees throw for throw.

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (-8.5)

Lucas: Chiefs. I don’t think Kansas City wins in Denver, but I do think with as shaky as Denver’s defense is, combined with KC’s defense being pretty good.

Nathaniel: Chiefs. Given Denver’s offensive performance in their last four games, this will likely be a low-scoring game, which would obviously favor Kansas City. Since they put up 51 points on the Cowboys in Week 5, the Broncos have had below-average Predictive Yards per Play averages in each of their last four games. It didn’t matter as much because they were playing bad defenses, but performing at that same level Sunday night against the Chiefs would make the dropoff look much more glaring. So while it’s still tough for me to imagine Kansas City strolling into Denver and coming away with a victory, this line looks eminently coverable.

New England Patriots at Carolina Panthers (-2.5)

Lucas: Panthers. “Do not believe in you, Riverboat Ron! Believe in the me that believes in you! Your going-for-it-on-4th-and-short is the going-for-it-on-4th-and-short that will pierce the plane of the end zone! WHO THE HELL DO YOU THINK I AM?!”

Nathaniel: Panthers. Carolina’s win at San Francisco was a loss for the rest of the NFC because there may not be a more balanced team in the whole conference. Now after beating the 49ers, a playoff berth of some type seems likely and a dark horse Super Bowl contender appears to have been born.

2013 Records:

Lucas: 77-71 (5-9 last week)

Nathaniel: 73-75 (10-4 last week)

**************************************************************************

Offensive Predictive Yards per Play Rankings, through Week 10:

Rank	Team	Yards	Plays	Passing TDs	INTs	Rushing TDs	Fumbles	SOS	Predictive Yards per Play
1	New Orleans Saints	3804	613	25	7	6	6	-0.01	6.69
2	San Diego Chargers	3559	592	18	7	4	7	-0.29	6.65
3	Green Bay Packers	3780	603	16	7	8	13	-0.08	6.53
4	Atlanta Falcons	3055	550	16	10	3	10	0.50	5.82
5	Denver Broncos	4128	641	33	6	11	20	-0.40	5.74
6	Detroit Lions	3692	617	19	7	8	12	-0.20	5.68
7	Seattle Seahawks	3620	623	18	6	9	19	0.19	5.59
8	Philadelphia Eagles	4134	657	21	7	7	14	-0.21	5.52
9	Houston Texans	3386	635	15	11	2	11	0.35	5.49
10	Indianapolis Colts	3133	568	14	7	8	6	0.03	5.45
11	Chicago Bears	3354	570	17	8	8	8	-0.20	5.44
12	Carolina Panthers	2912	588	13	8	10	10	0.21	5.32
13	Cincinnati Bengals	3786	697	18	13	7	15	0.10	5.14
14	Washington Redskins	3694	633	12	11	12	14	-0.71	4.96
15	San Francisco 49ers	2894	536	9	6	15	12	0.33	4.92
16	New England Patriots	3250	633	13	6	10	12	0.08	4.90
17	Pittsburgh Steelers	3034	575	13	10	4	12	0.15	4.76
18	St. Louis Rams	3165	634	17	6	3	15	0.16	4.62
19	Dallas Cowboys	3278	591	21	6	6	11	-0.33	4.59
20	Cleveland Browns	2851	599	16	9	1	8	0.09	4.55
21	Tennessee Titans	2906	569	12	8	8	16	0.13	4.47
22	Kansas City Chiefs	2856	596	9	4	7	9	-0.03	4.42
23	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	2698	591	12	7	2	12	0.20	4.41
24	Minnesota Vikings	2841	538	8	10	14	13	-0.13	4.40
25	Buffalo Bills	3329	707	10	9	8	19	0.35	4.34
26	Miami Dolphins	2735	563	13	10	6	10	0.06	4.20
27	New York Jets	2981	591	8	13	5	10	0.01	4.16
28	Arizona Cardinals	2848	554	12	15	6	15	0.22	4.09
29	Baltimore Ravens	2768	612	12	11	5	9	0.10	4.00
30	Oakland Raiders	2977	572	7	11	9	14	-0.36	3.97
31	Jacksonville Jaguars	2506	567	4	14	5	12	0.09	3.47
32	New York Giants	2873	569	11	17	6	15	-0.39	3.26

Defensive Predictive Yards per Play Rankings, through Week 10:

Rank	Team	Yards	Plays	Passing TDs	INTs	Rushing TDs	Fumbles	SOS	Predictive Yards per Play
1	Arizona Cardinals	2975	614	17	12	3	12	0.48	3.78
2	Seattle Seahawks	2890	627	10	13	4	21	-0.06	3.92
3	San Francisco 49ers	2851	587	10	10	8	13	0.11	3.95
4	Carolina Panthers	2550	529	7	13	2	13	-0.24	4.05
5	Baltimore Ravens	3080	602	16	7	1	14	0.05	4.16
6	New York Jets	2927	586	17	5	5	14	0.10	4.30
7	Tennessee Titans	2936	568	7	8	12	15	0.00	4.32
8	New York Giants	2967	613	14	8	6	15	0.05	4.32
9	Kansas City Chiefs	2942	575	9	12	2	15	-0.46	4.34
10	Houston Texans	2520	514	15	4	6	9	0.04	4.37
11	Cincinnati Bengals	3114	666	13	9	4	10	-0.15	4.48
12	Cleveland Browns	2841	630	13	6	9	9	-0.17	4.59
13	New England Patriots	3249	643	13	12	4	12	-0.11	4.67
14	Miami Dolphins	3214	632	10	12	10	9	0.14	4.71
15	Buffalo Bills	3559	696	21	13	3	8	-0.13	4.77
16	St. Louis Rams	3518	614	15	11	11	17	0.06	4.80
17	New Orleans Saints	2858	530	9	9	8	11	-0.31	4.81
18	Oakland Raiders	3109	571	18	6	7	16	0.01	4.85
19	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	2997	564	17	9	4	8	0.19	4.90
20	Denver Broncos	3374	610	16	13	9	10	-0.18	5.06
21	Detroit Lions	3386	569	15	11	5	10	0.00	5.16
22	Chicago Bears	3413	557	14	12	10	17	0.26	5.16
23	Jacksonville Jaguars	3500	595	18	4	14	18	0.22	5.26
24	Indianapolis Colts	3310	571	13	8	6	12	0.09	5.27
25	Pittsburgh Steelers	2957	565	10	5	12	9	-0.39	5.28
26	Washington Redskins	3497	575	19	10	12	7	0.39	5.36
27	Green Bay Packers	3175	558	17	3	7	9	0.02	5.66
28	Philadelphia Eagles	4170	747	15	12	7	12	-0.13	5.77
29	Dallas Cowboys	4398	710	20	12	11	13	0.25	5.97
30	Minnesota Vikings	3594	647	21	8	9	11	0.03	6.05
31	Atlanta Falcons	3409	568	19	6	6	7	-0.05	6.49
32	San Diego Chargers	3547	551	14	4	6	9	-0.03	6.75

Predictive Yards per Play Differential, through Week 10:

Rank	Team	PY/P Diff.	Remaining SOS	Projected Wins
1	New Orleans Saints	1.88	11.75	11.98
2	Seattle Seahawks	1.67	28.93	13.40
3	Carolina Panthers	1.27	6.83	10.27
4	Houston Texans	1.12	-24.11	6.86
5	San Francisco 49ers	0.97	7.27	10.08
6	Green Bay Packers	0.87	-21.30	9.03
7	Denver Broncos	0.68	3.86	12.34
8	Cincinnati Bengals	0.66	-21.03	9.62
9	Detroit Lions	0.52	-26.03	10.57
10	Arizona Cardinals	0.30	-3.10	9.05
11	Chicago Bears	0.28	-17.35	8.90
12	New England Patriots	0.23	9.02	10.33
13	Indianapolis Colts	0.18	-0.80	9.07
14	Tennessee Titans	0.15	-6.50	7.61
15	Kansas City Chiefs	0.08	4.45	12.60
16	Cleveland Browns	-0.04	-10.42	7.49
17	San Diego Chargers	-0.10	-7.84	7.81
18	New York Jets	-0.14	-8.28	8.44
19	Baltimore Ravens	-0.16	-10.56	7.63
20	St. Louis Rams	-0.18	20.54	6.12
21	Philadelphia Eagles	-0.25	-20.88	8.18
22	Washington Redskins	-0.40	-21.22	6.46
23	Buffalo Bills	-0.42	14.01	6.20
24	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	-0.48	14.91	3.09
25	Miami Dolphins	-0.51	-3.05	7.07
26	Pittsburgh Steelers	-0.52	-5.52	6.35
27	Atlanta Falcons	-0.67	11.22	4.60
28	Oakland Raiders	-0.88	6.85	5.13
29	New York Giants	-1.06	-3.86	5.21
30	Dallas Cowboys	-1.38	-19.72	7.64
31	Minnesota Vikings	-1.64	9.00	3.80
32	Jacksonville Jaguars	-1.80	-0.59	2.38

Projected AFC Playoff Picture, through Week 10:

1. Kansas City (12.6 wins)
2. New England (10.3 wins)
3. Cincinnati (9.6 wins)
4. Indianapolis (9.1 wins)
5. Denver (12.3 wins)
6. NY Jets (8.4 wins)

In the hunt: San Diego (7.8 wins), Baltimore (7.6 wins), Tennessee (7.6 wins), Cleveland (7.5 wins), Miami (7.1 wins), Houston (6.9 wins)

Mediocre: Pittsburgh (6.3 wins), Buffalo (6.2 wins), Oakland (5.1 wins)

Teddy Bridgewater Sweepstakes: Jacksonville (2.4 wins)

Projected NFC Playoff Picture, through Week 10:

1. Seattle (13.4 wins)
2. New Orleans (12.0 wins)
3. Detroit (10.6 wins)
4. Philadelphia (8.2 wins)
5. Carolina (10.3 wins)
6. San Francisco (10.1 wins)

In the hunt: Arizona (9.1 wins), Green Bay (9.0 wins), Chicago (8.9 wins), Dallas (7.6 wins), Washington (6.5 wins)

Mediocre: St. Louis (6.1 wins), NY Giants (5.2 wins)

Teddy Bridgewater Sweepstakes: Atlanta (4.6 wins), Minnesota (3.8 wins), Tampa Bay (3.1 wins)

Week 9 Predictive Yards per Play Rankings

After a very strange week that saw the playoff picture tighten considerably, here are the Predictive Yards per Play rankings at the midpoint of the season

Offensive Predictive Yards per Play, through Week 9:

Rank	Team	Yards	Plays	Passing TDs	INTs	Rushing TDs	Fumbles	SOS	PY/P (Ball-Control Adjusted
1	San Diego Chargers	3230	524	17	7	3	6	-0.27	6.83
2	Green Bay Packers	3384	528	15	5	8	12	0.06	6.67
3	New Orleans Saints	3179	533	21	7	3	5	0.13	6.28
4	Denver Broncos	3731	581	29	6	11	18	-0.20	5.91
5	Atlanta Falcons	2829	496	15	10	3	8	0.31	5.90
6	Detroit Lions	3328	556	16	6	8	11	-0.07	5.81
7	Carolina Panthers	2662	522	13	7	9	7	0.17	5.64
8	Indianapolis Colts	2727	499	13	3	8	5	-0.07	5.58
9	Houston Texans	3151	568	12	11	2	10	0.17	5.55
10	Chicago Bears	3016	499	15	7	8	8	-0.13	5.54
11	Philadelphia Eagles	3719	599	18	7	7	13	-0.15	5.47
12	Cincinnati Bengals	3422	610	16	10	7	14	0.06	5.32
13	San Francisco 49ers	2743	484	9	5	15	11	0.25	5.23
14	Seattle Seahawks	3130	554	16	6	8	19	0.22	5.17
15	New England Patriots	3250	633	13	6	10	12	0.07	4.88
16	Pittsburgh Steelers	2734	508	12	9	3	11	0.13	4.82
17	Washington Redskins	3261	556	9	11	12	13	-0.60	4.73
18	Dallas Cowboys	3085	548	20	6	5	11	-0.37	4.68
19	Tennessee Titans	2544	499	10	7	7	11	0.16	4.68
20	Cleveland Browns	2851	599	16	9	1	8	0.16	4.62
21	St. Louis Rams	2793	579	15	6	2	13	0.17	4.53
22	Buffalo Bills	3102	643	9	8	8	18	0.38	4.48
23	Kansas City Chiefs	2856	596	9	4	7	9	-0.02	4.44
24	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	2434	531	11	6	1	12	0.15	4.41
25	Minnesota Vikings	2534	486	6	9	12	12	-0.05	4.38
26	Baltimore Ravens	2579	541	10	9	5	8	0.12	4.28
27	Miami Dolphins	2522	505	11	9	6	10	0.09	4.24
28	New York Jets	2981	591	8	13	5	10	-0.03	4.12
29	Arizona Cardinals	2516	492	10	14	6	13	0.10	3.93
30	Oakland Raiders	2764	517	7	10	8	13	-0.56	3.90
31	Jacksonville Jaguars	2292	511	4	12	3	9	-0.03	3.61
32	New York Giants	2622	506	10	16	5	12	-0.43	3.36

Defensive Predictive Yards per Play, through Week 9:

Rank	Team	Yards	Plays	Passing TDs	INTs	Rushing TDs	Fumbles	SOS	PY/P (Ball-Control Adjusted
1	Arizona Cardinals	2740	547	14	12	3	11	0.45	3.92
2	Seattle Seahawks	2664	573	9	13	4	19	-0.13	4.02
3	San Francisco 49ers	2601	521	10	9	7	10	0.04	4.23
4	Baltimore Ravens	2716	515	14	4	1	13	0.08	4.27
5	Kansas City Chiefs	2942	575	9	12	2	15	-0.43	4.31
6	New York Jets	2927	586	17	5	5	14	0.08	4.32
7	New York Giants	2754	558	14	7	5	14	0.14	4.33
8	Houston Texans	2188	452	13	3	6	7	0.18	4.33
9	Cleveland Browns	2841	630	13	6	9	9	-0.04	4.46
10	Carolina Panthers	2399	477	7	12	2	12	-0.36	4.52
11	Tennessee Titans	2722	512	7	6	10	12	0.09	4.60
12	Cincinnati Bengals	2925	595	11	7	4	9	-0.04	4.69
13	New England Patriots	3249	643	13	12	4	12	-0.14	4.71
14	Miami Dolphins	2950	572	9	11	9	9	0.23	4.73
15	Oakland Raiders	2858	508	17	5	6	13	0.21	4.81
16	Buffalo Bills	3259	629	20	12	2	7	-0.11	4.81
17	St. Louis Rams	3112	545	14	7	11	16	0.02	4.88
18	New Orleans Saints	2665	487	8	9	7	11	-0.33	5.01
19	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	2784	506	15	8	4	8	0.17	5.06
20	Detroit Lions	3048	498	13	10	5	10	-0.02	5.09
21	Washington Redskins	3190	523	17	9	10	6	0.57	5.18
22	Indianapolis Colts	2938	516	11	8	5	10	0.13	5.21
23	Denver Broncos	3045	542	15	13	8	9	-0.39	5.23
24	Chicago Bears	3049	496	11	11	10	16	0.18	5.31
25	Pittsburgh Steelers	2730	501	9	4	12	8	-0.33	5.46
26	Green Bay Packers	2760	500	14	3	7	8	0.03	5.47
27	Jacksonville Jaguars	3138	525	16	3	13	13	0.30	5.53
28	Dallas Cowboys	3773	630	16	12	8	12	0.09	5.61
29	Minnesota Vikings	3161	570	18	8	9	10	0.12	5.65
30	Philadelphia Eagles	3774	672	14	10	7	11	-0.28	5.90
31	Atlanta Falcons	2919	499	17	6	5	7	-0.23	6.26
32	San Diego Chargers	3150	491	10	4	6	7	-0.15	6.94

Predictive Yards per Play Differential, through Week 9:

Rank	Team	PY/P Diff.	Remaining SOS	Projected Wins
1	New Orleans Saints	1.27	-1.70	11.49
2	Houston Texans	1.22	-23.28	7.68
3	Green Bay Packers	1.20	-21.31	9.72
4	Seattle Seahawks	1.15	-17.69	13.01
5	Carolina Panthers	1.13	6.79	9.79
6	San Francisco 49ers	1.00	-2.98	10.99
7	Detroit Lions	0.73	-23.04	10.21
8	Denver Broncos	0.67	8.49	11.90
9	Cincinnati Bengals	0.63	-15.64	10.11
10	Indianapolis Colts	0.37	-13.39	10.07
11	Chicago Bears	0.24	-16.83	9.32
12	New England Patriots	0.18	12.86	10.21
13	Cleveland Browns	0.15	-14.80	7.78
14	Kansas City Chiefs	0.12	7.03	12.56
15	Tennessee Titans	0.08	-19.09	8.34
16	Arizona Cardinals	0.02	-10.61	8.44
17	Baltimore Ravens	0.01	-10.36	7.20
18	San Diego Chargers	-0.11	-3.58	8.29
19	New York Jets	-0.20	-9.08	8.41
20	Buffalo Bills	-0.33	-25.98	6.61
21	St. Louis Rams	-0.35	10.80	4.44
22	Atlanta Falcons	-0.36	11.17	5.29
23	Philadelphia Eagles	-0.43	-12.75	7.32
24	Washington Redskins	-0.45	-23.20	6.82
25	Miami Dolphins	-0.50	-7.27	7.58
26	Pittsburgh Steelers	-0.65	-4.77	5.67
27	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	-0.66	3.13	2.55
28	Oakland Raiders	-0.90	7.04	5.39
29	Dallas Cowboys	-0.92	-7.31	8.16
30	New York Giants	-0.97	-8.75	4.70
31	Minnesota Vikings	-1.27	-23.23	3.90
32	Jacksonville Jaguars	-1.91	2.93	1.40

Obviously, the biggest development to come out of Week 9 – arguably also the single biggest development of the season to date – was the fractured collarbone suffered by Aaron Rodgers in the first series of Monday night’s game against the Bears. It’s the first major in-season injury to a starting quarterback on a Super Bowl-contending team since Matt Schaub’s lisfranc injury derailed the Texans’ Super Bowl hopes two years ago (my, how things have changed quickly). Obviously, though, Rodgers is a better quarterback than Schaub ever was and the effect his absence will have on the Packers offense is likely to be more in line with how the Colts fared without Peyton Manning in 2011.

The initial timetable for Rodgers’ return, as reported by ESPN’s Adam Schefter, was three weeks; reports coming out today are now suggesting Rodgers will miss four to six weeks. In this case, the difference between Rodgers missing three games or four is enormous because that fourth game would be the Thanksgiving Day matchup in Detroit against the NFC North co-leading Lions. The three games Rodgers seems certain to miss – home against Philadelphia and Minnesota, away at the Giants – are all still winnable even with Seneca Wallace at quarterback. It’s tough to envision the Packers going into Detroit and beating the Lions, though, without Rodgers and that puts the Packers in a dicey spot in regards to their playoff chances.

Obviously, the dropoff in quality from Rodgers to Wallace is severe and should be accounted for in the Packers’ projection for the rest of the season. But to what degree should we expect the Packers offense to sag? Well, Rodgers’ career Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt figure is 7.61. Wallace’s is 5.16 – actually pretty good for a backup quarterback, but still solidly below average. The difference between the two is 2.45 – in other words,Wallace has averaged about two and a half yards fewer per attempt than Rodgers has. 

Assuming the Packers would normally throw the ball somewhere in the neighborhood of 40 times if Rodgers was healthy and playing, that would mean the dropoff between Rodgers and Wallace is about 98 yards per game. And since it’s generally been held that 14 or 15 yards are worth about one point, 98 fewer yards would likely mean seven fewer points per game.

Additionally, quarterback with higher completion percentages tend to do better in situational football (3rd downs, red zone, etc.) than quarterbacks with low completion rates. Rodgers’ career completion rate of 65.8% is outstanding; Wallace’s completion percentage of 59.1% is poor. Using a regression formula based off of QB completion percentages and its correlation on points scored over the previous five seasons, I estimate that Wallace’s relative inaccuracy compared to Rodgers will cost the Packers an additional four points per game.

So the statistical difference between Rodgers and Wallace looks to be about 11 points per game. In actuality, that may be downplaying the significance of the dropoff between the two. Or it might be overrating it, considering Wallace has never quarterbacked an offense with as much talent surrounding him as the Packers possess. For purposes of projecting the Packers’ future performance, though, I whacked 11 points per game off their total projection for the fewest amount of games Rodgers is projected to miss, which currently is four. In other words, the Packers’ complete projection has now been downgraded by 44 points, which is worth a little more than one projected win.

It’s tough to understate the magnitude of Rodgers’ injury. Had he played the whole game Monday Night, it’s probably fair to say the Packers would have won a game they lost by seven points (although Chicago’s point total of 27 is certainly not something to scoff at). If they had won Monday night, they likely would have improved upon their win projection from last week of 11.7 and would have become the favorite to snag the #2 seed over New Orleans.

Now? After adjusting for Rodgers’ injury, Predictive Yards per Play now projects the Packers to narrowly miss the playoffs – their projected win total of 9.7 games is a half game behind Detroit for the NFC North title and a tenth of a game behind Carolina for the final wild-card spot. Now, a tenth of a game is a silly distinction to make between two teams – for all intents and purposes, Green Bay and Carolina are basically projected to wind up with the same record. And if the Packers still make the playoffs, they would likely enter the postseason with not only Rodgers back but also Clay Matthews and Randall Cobb. Getting to that point no longer is certain, however.

Rodgers’ injury is clearly the most significant in the league this season, but it’s not the only one suffered by a star player. I’ve adjusted several other teams’ projections going forward after determining their ratings don’t adequately account for a key injury suffered. These are the teams whose projection I’ve downgraded and the players/injuries that caused the downgrade.

Atlanta Falcons: Julio Jones, out for the season (-14 points total)

Chicago Bears: Lance Briggs, out approximately 2-5 weeks (-12 points total)

Cincinnati Bengals: Geno Atkins, out for the season (-14 points total)

Houston Texans: Brian Cushing, out for the season (-16 points total)

Indianapolis Colts: Reggie Wayne, out for the season (-20 points total)

St. Louis Rams: Sam Bradford, out for the season (-42 points total)

Week 9 was plenty zany even before Rodgers got hurt Monday Night. New Orleans lost to a team that had lost by 40 points the week before but still wound up rising three spots to become the fourth team to claim the top spot in this year’s Predictive Yards per Play rankings. Seattle and Kansas City both did their best to blow the most winnable games left on their schedules but still project as the #1 seeds in their respective conferences. And after the Jets’ aforementioned win over the Saints and the Chargers’ overtime defeat to the Redskins, there are now SEVEN teams projected to wind up within one game of the final wild-card spot in the AFC. Even after adjusting for PY/P’s morbid fascination with Houston, it’s clear that the race for the #6 seed is going to crazy the rest of the season.

Projected AFC Playoff Picture, through Week 9:

1. Kansas City (12.6 wins)
2. New England (10.2 wins)
3. Cincinnati (10.1 wins)
4. Indianapolis (10.1 wins)
5. Denver (11.8 wins)
6. NY Jets (8.4 wins)

In the hunt: Tennessee (8.3 wins), San Diego (8.3 wins), Cleveland (7.8 wins), Houston (7.7 wins), Miami (7.6 wins), Baltimore (7.2 wins),

Mediocre: Buffalo (6.6 wins), Pittsburgh (5.7 wins), Oakland (5.4 wins)

Teddy Bridgewater Sweepstakes: Jacksonville (1.4 wins)

Projected NFC Playoff Picture, through Week 9:

1. Seattle (13.0 wins)
2. New Orleans (11.5 wins)
3. Detroit (10.2 wins)
4. Dallas (8.2 wins)
5. San Francisco (11.0 wins)
6. Carolina (9.8 wins)

In the hunt: Green Bay (9.7 wins), Chicago (9.3 wins), Arizona (8.4 wins), Philadelphia (7.4 wins), Washington (6.8 wins)

Mediocre: Atlanta (5.3 wins)

Teddy Bridgewater Sweepstakes: NY Giants (4.7 wins), St. Louis (4.4 wins), Minnesota (3.9 wins), Tampa Bay (2.6 wins)

2013 COAS/SSLYAR Pigskin Pick’Em: Week 9

This week’s fail-safe, sure-fire picks against the spread from Confessions of a Sportscaster and yours truly are shown below. If I keep picking up a game a week on Lucas like I did last week, I’ll wind up winning by two games! Marathon, not a sprint! That’s what I keep telling myself, anyway. Also, groupthink is apparently back, as we only disagree on two games this week. Subjectively, my hunch is that means we’ll both wind up 5-8 this week, but maybe I’m wrong! Please read our picks below.

Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins (+2.5)

Lucas: Bengals. I feel like Cincy might be rounding into form at this point. Also I don’t really trust the Dolphins.

Nathaniel: Bengals. Ryan Tannehill’s on pace to get sacked 73 times this season. 73! If he and the Dolphins offensive line keep this pace up, he’ll be the second-most sacked quarterback in a single season ever. Why not just embrace the whole thing and gun for David Carr’s record, guys? It’d do David a world of good to know someone out there may have POSSIBLY had it worse than him.

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (-7.5)

Lucas: Panthers. I’m behind you, Riverboat Ron! Don’t fail me now!

Nathaniel: Falcons. Was Matt Ryan’s four interception game last week a fluke, a sign that the wheels are starting to fall off the Falcons offense without Julio and Roddy White, or a reminder that the Cardinals defense is really good? The answer, of course, could very well be “All three,” but I prefer to live in a world where the truth isn’t multi-faceted and difficult to understand sometimes.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Buffalo Bills (+3.5)

Lucas: Chiefs. KC reloaded big time in the offseason, which is a big reason why they’ve already notched 6 more wins than they had all last year. Adding Andy Reid also helped. Though personally, I’m a bigger fan of Baby Andy Reid. Happy Halloween!

Nathaniel: Chiefs. Usually the longer a backup quarterback has to stay in, the more cracks and flaws in his game appear. Particularly when you have to go up against the best defense in the AFC. I’m rooting for you, Thad Lewis, but I don’t got a good feeling about this!

Minnesota Vikings at Dallas Cowboys (-10.5)

Lucas: Vikings. Look, I know the Vikings aren’t great. I watched most of the second half of Aaron Rodgers taking his time dissecting their defense. And yes, I realize it’s November and this is when Tony Romo and company take off. But I’m not sold on a double-digit spread at this stage.

Nathaniel: Vikings. If I knew for certain that Josh Freeman would be starting Sunday, then I would take Dallas with no hesitation. Unfortunately, Christian Ponder shows enough flashes of competence to make me a think a backdoor cover would be eminently within reach for Minnesota.  Of course, what would make this easier is if Leslie Frazier decided to pick his starting quarterback more than three hours before kickoff. I do realize that’s an unreasonable demand, though.

Tennessee Titans at St. Louis Rams (+2.5)

Lucas: Titans. St. Louis blew an easily winnable game against the Seahawks by sucking on offense. Why should I trust them here?

Nathaniel: Titans. The less said about this game, the better.

New Orleans Saints at New York Jets (+5.5)

Lucas: Saints. This is partially a gut reaction to the Jets getting annihilated by the Bengals last week. This is also a gut reaction to “Hey, the Saints are really, really good.”

Nathaniel: Saints. The Jets’ tendency this season has been to win a close game and then lose their next matchup, usually by a big margin. So, using that logic, the Jets should win a close game this week. Of course, that logic doesn’t know that the Saints are coming into town.

San Diego Chargers at Washington Redskins (-0.5)

Lucas: Redskins. I’ll give the thug Brandon Meriweather a week grace period before he either takes out a guy’s knee or goes back to his headhunting and gets suspended for the rest of the season like he deserves. (In his defense though: he does have a point about defenders being forced to go low.)

Nathaniel: Chargers. Philip Rivers is quietly having a season that’s nearly as good as Peyton Manning’s has been. It’s good that he has, because the Chargers defense has been horrible all year. Another 45-41 game may very well be in the cards at FedEx Field.

Philadelphia Eagles at Oakland Raiders (-2.5)

Lucas: Eagles. ESPN’s Gregg Easterbrook (TMQ) thinks Philly opponents are actually the Borg. These defenses are adapting to the high speed offense Chip Kelly brought over. But unless Terrelle Pryor breaks a 90 yard run again, I think the only Borg in sight might be in the Black Hole.

Nathaniel: Eagles. Chip Kelly’s figuring out it’s tougher to move the ball at warp speed when you don’t have a semblance of a quarterback behind center. That I’m still taking the Eagles anyway either says something about my stupidity or Oakland’s inability to move the ball through the air. Or both!

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Seattle Seahawks (-16.5)

Lucas: Seahawks. Normally I’d be leery here. But I feel like if the Tampa players really want Greg Schiano gone… isn’t this the perfect game to do it? Get the crap kicked out of you, force ownership’s hand… maybe not likely, but there’s no way Tampa is going to keep up with the Seahawks in Seattle.

Nathaniel: Seahawks. Here’s assuming Seattle’s offensive line actually remembers how to block again after briefly forgetting last Monday Night.

Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns (+2.5)

Lucas: Browns. Is it me, or did Cleveland look serviceable last week? Against KC, no less! Pit them at home against a not-that-great Baltimore team… I could go for that. You know, as long as Brandon Weeden doesn’t play.

Nathaniel: Browns. Once the Browns actually find a quarterback in next year’s draft, they could turn into a legitimately good team. For now, having Jason Campbell as their quarterback makes them competent. Progress over Brandon Weeden!

Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots (-7.5)

Lucas: Steelers. Look, I know this game is in Foxboro. Part of me just isn’t sold on the spread. Of course, now Tom Brady will torch the Steelers and beat them by 30 points.

Nathaniel: Steelers. I think it’s safe to say 2007-12 Tom Brady isn’t walking through that door at this point. The Patriots actually have a better record at the season’s midpoint than they have the past two years, but they feel 10,000 times less dangerous.

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (+2.5)

Lucas: Colts. Houston is clearly not the team they’ve been the last couple years. I was talking to my supervisor from Indy the other day, and we marveled at the fact that it’s not inconceivable for the Colts to run the table the rest of the day. I don’t think it’ll happen, but it’s a scary thought.

Nathaniel: Colts. My hunch is Reggie Wayne’s torn ACL is going to wind up being an insurmountable obstacle to the Colts’s Super Bowl hopes this year, but the Texans have reached the point where every home game is toxic. The fans seem ready to turn on this team from the first mistake they make – and it seems likely that Case Keenum will make a bunch of them Sunday Night.

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-11.5)

Lucas: Packers. Bad news for Bears fans: Jay Cutler is out. Bad news for Packers fans: Jay Cutler is out. Seriously, you have no idea how sad I am that he won’t be available to get sacked half a dozen times and throw three picks. Instead, I’ll have to settle for Green Bay rattling Josh McCown while Aaron Rodgers cremates a banged up and past-its-prime Bears defense.

Nathaniel: Packers. This is not going to be fun.

2013 Records:

Lucas: 64-57 (6-7 last week)

Nathaniel: 57-64 (7-6 last week)

 

Week 8 Predictive Yards per Play Rankings

Week 8’s Predictive Yards per Play Rankings are coming up right about…now.

Offensive Predictive Yards per Play, through Week 8:

Rank	Team	Yards	Plays	Passing TDs	INTs	Rushing TDs	Fumbles	SOS	PY/P (Ball-Control Adjusted
1	Green Bay Packers	3072	473	15	4	6	10	0.22	7.20
2	San Diego Chargers	2820	461	15	5	3	6	-0.14	6.82
3	New Orleans Saints	2772	467	19	5	3	4	-0.12	6.08
4	Atlanta Falcons	2540	448	14	7	3	7	0.10	6.05
5	Denver Broncos	3731	581	29	6	11	18	-0.09	6.01
6	Detroit Lions	3328	556	16	6	8	11	-0.01	5.86
7	Carolina Panthers	2289	451	12	5	7	6	0.36	5.68
8	Indianapolis Colts	2413	441	10	3	8	5	-0.07	5.62
9	Houston Texans	2668	500	9	11	2	9	0.28	5.42
10	San Francisco 49ers	2743	484	9	5	15	11	0.42	5.40
11	Cincinnati Bengals	2957	517	16	7	5	13	-0.07	5.33
12	Chicago Bears	2574	424	13	7	7	8	-0.05	5.33
13	Philadelphia Eagles	3178	542	11	7	7	13	-0.18	5.06
14	Seattle Seahawks	2715	493	14	4	7	17	0.19	4.96
15	Tennessee Titans	2181	438	10	5	3	10	0.23	4.79
16	Dallas Cowboys	2735	485	18	5	5	11	-0.20	4.73
17	Washington Redskins	2761	484	9	10	8	13	-0.35	4.70
18	Kansas City Chiefs	2646	542	9	4	7	8	-0.06	4.49
19	Pittsburgh Steelers	2255	435	8	7	3	10	0.03	4.48
20	Cleveland Browns	2536	531	13	9	1	7	-0.01	4.48
21	Baltimore Ravens	2301	474	8	8	5	7	0.07	4.30
22	New England Patriots	2640	562	9	6	7	11	-0.05	4.22
23	Minnesota Vikings	2141	418	5	8	10	10	-0.04	4.21
24	St. Louis Rams	2430	510	14	6	0	11	-0.10	4.09
25	Miami Dolphins	2177	444	11	9	5	9	-0.03	4.07
26	Buffalo Bills	2632	566	8	6	8	17	0.19	4.05
27	Arizona Cardinals	2516	492	10	14	6	13	0.20	4.03
28	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	2084	466	8	6	1	11	-0.12	3.92
29	New York Jets	2643	533	8	13	3	10	-0.09	3.88
30	Oakland Raiders	2204	425	7	8	6	11	-0.32	3.83
31	Jacksonville Jaguars	2292	511	4	12	3	9	0.05	3.69
32	New York Giants	2622	506	10	16	5	12	-0.37	3.41

Defensive Predictive Yards per Play, through Week 8:

Rank	Team	Yards	Plays	Passing TDs	INTs	Rushing TDs	Fumbles	SOS	PY/P (Ball-Control Adjusted
1	Seattle Seahawks	2314	508	6	13	4	18	0.02	3.59
2	Kansas City Chiefs	2472	498	8	10	2	14	-0.33	3.91
3	Arizona Cardinals	2740	547	14	12	3	11	0.38	3.98
4	San Francisco 49ers	2601	521	10	9	7	10	0.11	4.15
5	Baltimore Ravens	2401	447	11	4	1	12	0.11	4.16
6	Houston Texans	1874	394	10	3	6	7	0.17	4.18
7	Oakland Raiders	2316	451	10	5	6	13	0.24	4.29
8	New York Giants	2755	558	14	7	5	14	0.14	4.33
9	Cleveland Browns	2563	563	11	5	9	8	0.05	4.43
10	New York Jets	2520	520	15	3	5	13	-0.19	4.46
11	Tennessee Titans	2359	443	6	6	8	10	0.12	4.48
12	New England Patriots	2770	570	9	10	4	11	-0.19	4.58
13	Cincinnati Bengals	2580	534	11	7	3	8	-0.03	4.67
14	St. Louis Rams	2749	484	14	5	7	15	0.15	4.67
15	Carolina Panthers	2110	429	6	9	2	11	-0.59	4.81
16	Pittsburgh Steelers	2120	430	5	4	9	7	-0.28	4.87
17	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	2369	445	13	6	3	7	0.10	4.87
18	New Orleans Saints	2327	429	8	9	5	11	-0.34	4.87
19	Miami Dolphins	2485	479	9	8	7	8	0.14	4.88
20	Indianapolis Colts	2455	448	8	8	5	9	0.14	4.92
21	Buffalo Bills	3049	575	20	12	2	6	-0.09	4.93
22	Detroit Lions	3048	498	13	10	5	10	0.02	5.04
23	Denver Broncos	3045	542	15	13	8	9	-0.28	5.12
24	Green Bay Packers	2318	425	12	3	6	8	0.04	5.13
25	Washington Redskins	2780	460	15	7	10	6	0.41	5.20
26	Jacksonville Jaguars	3138	525	16	3	13	13	0.31	5.50
27	Minnesota Vikings	2811	507	16	7	9	10	0.18	5.55
28	Dallas Cowboys	3380	562	15	11	6	10	0.17	5.56
29	Philadelphia Eagles	3214	580	14	8	5	9	-0.18	5.68
30	Chicago Bears	2737	441	11	10	8	14	-0.04	5.68
31	Atlanta Falcons	2546	428	16	4	3	6	-0.45	6.39
32	San Diego Chargers	2650	419	10	3	2	7	-0.07	6.64

Predictive Yards per Play Differential, through Week 8:

Rank	Team	PY/P Diff.	Remaining SOS	Projected Wins
1	Green Bay Packers	2.07	-19.45	11.74
2	Seattle Seahawks	1.36	-18.65	13.04
3	San Francisco 49ers	1.25	1.20	11.04
4	Houston Texans	1.24	-15.42	8.72
5	New Orleans Saints	1.21	3.42	12.06
6	Denver Broncos	0.89	18.11	11.80
7	Carolina Panthers	0.87	0.54	9.27
8	Detroit Lions	0.82	-15.80	10.02
9	Indianapolis Colts	0.70	6.75	9.87
10	Cincinnati Bengals	0.66	-8.41	10.98
11	Kansas City Chiefs	0.59	15.79	12.07
12	Tennessee Titans	0.31	-5.15	7.40
13	San Diego Chargers	0.17	1.88	9.04
14	Baltimore Ravens	0.14	-6.76	7.86
15	Arizona Cardinals	0.05	1.49	7.91
16	Cleveland Browns	0.05	-10.97	6.84
17	Atlanta Falcons	-0.34	21.88	6.02
18	Chicago Bears	-0.35	7.45	8.09
19	New England Patriots	-0.36	7.73	9.34
20	Pittsburgh Steelers	-0.38	1.48	6.54
21	Oakland Raiders	-0.46	6.34	6.42
22	Washington Redskins	-0.50	-15.76	5.92
23	New York Jets	-0.58	-6.69	7.39
24	St. Louis Rams	-0.58	11.43	5.69
25	Philadelphia Eagles	-0.63	-4.71	6.25
26	Miami Dolphins	-0.81	-11.08	6.59
27	Dallas Cowboys	-0.83	-7.16	7.77
28	Buffalo Bills	-0.88	-25.85	6.60
29	New York Giants	-0.92	5.95	4.68
30	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	-0.95	14.61	1.95
31	Minnesota Vikings	-1.35	9.06	3.36
32	Jacksonville Jaguars	-1.82	8.45	1.62

Green Bay’s nearly-perfect offensive showing Sunday Night against the Vikings boosted their offensive rating through the roof and, as a result, moves them past Seattle for the #1 spot in this week’s rankings. It’s still early, but this Packers offense is actually on pace to fly past the vaunted 2011 unit’s PY/P rating by a full yard per play. Considering Aaron Rodgers submitted one of the four or five best quarterback seasons of all time that year, I’d say that’s a pretty good start to the year for the Packers offense.

Rodgers hasn’t quite played up to his 2011 level this year – he’s merely playing at an MVP level rather than an otherworldly level -but the Packers now have an excellent running attack to back up their top-three (or top-two or top-one) quarterback. Football Outsiders ranked the Packers’ offensive line as the best run blocking unit in the league by their Adjusted Line Yards metric going into last week and I could only assume Sunday Night’s performance didn’t hurt that ranking too badly. Defensively, the Packers still rate well below average but have an ace in the hole whenever Clay Matthews returns from injury. If the Packers maintained this rating for the entire season – an unlikely proposition, but not an impossible one – they would easily rank as the best regular season team of the Rodgers/McCarthy era.

However, Seattle is still the favorite to win the top seed in the NFC despite falling to #2 in the overall PY/P rankings and, given their incredible home-field advantage, have to still be considered the main favorite to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. In fact, despite rating .71 yards per play better than any other team in the league, Green Bay is still currently projected to lose the #2 seed and other first-round bye to New Orleans. Given how top-heavy the NFC is this year, the first-round byes may hold more significance than usual – having to win back-to-back road games at New Orleans or Green Bay and then Seattle seems like a nearly impossible task off-hand.

The rest of this week’s overall top ten consists of San Francisco, Houston (sigh), New Orleans, Denver, Carolina, Detroit, Indianapolis and Cincinnati. Both the Panthers and Lions have come on strong in recent weeks and look like the main challengers for the last wild-card slot in the NFC playoffs. Detroit’s currently the favorite to wrest that spot away because of a significantly easier schedule.

Nothing changed in the AFC playoff projections from last week – Cincinnati became a stronger favorite to pick up the #2 seed after their thrashing of the Jets, but no actual spots changed hands this week. Kansas City and Denver are still projected to be the two winningest teams in the conference, but both are slated to wind up around 12 wins because of schedules that rank as the two toughest remaining in the AFC. The two games the teams play against each other – and the two each will play against San Diego – will probably be the main factors in shaking out the AFC playoff race.

Projected AFC Playoff Picture, through Week 8:

1. Kansas City (12.1 wins)
2. Cincinnati (11.0 wins)
3. Indianapolis (9.9 wins)
4. New England (9.3 wins)
5. Denver (11.8 wins)
6. San Diego (9.0 wins)

In the hunt: Houston (8.7 wins), Baltimore (7.9 wins), Tennessee (7.4 wins), NY Jets (7.4 wins)

Mediocre: Cleveland (6.8 wins), Buffalo (6.6 wins), Miami (6.6 wins), Pittsburgh (6.5 wins), Oakland (6.4 wins)

Teddy Bridgewater Sweepstakes: Jacksonville (1.6 wins)

Projected NFC Playoff Picture, through Week 8:

1. Seattle (13.0 wins)
2. New Orleans (12.1 wins)
3. Green Bay (11.7 wins)
4. Dallas (7.8 wins)
5. San Francisco (11.0 wins)
6. Detroit (10.0 wins)

In the hunt: Carolina (9.3 wins), Chicago (8.1 wins), Philadelphia (6.3 wins), Washington (5.9 wins)

Mediocre: Arizona (7.9 wins), Atlanta (6.0 wins), St. Louis (5.7 wins)

Teddy Bridgewater Sweepstakes: NY Giants (4.7 wins), Minnesota (3.4 wins), Tampa Bay (2.0 wins)

Week 7 Predictive Yards per Play Rankings

Below are Week 7’s rankings for your perusal:

Offensive Predictive Yards per Play, through Week 7:

Rank	Team	Yards	Plays	Passing TDs	INTs	Rushing TDs	Fumbles	SOS	PY/P (Ball-Control Adjusted
1	San Diego Chargers	2820	461	15	5	3	6	-0.03	6.93
2	Atlanta Falcons	2248	369	13	3	3	7	0.12	6.71
3	Green Bay Packers	2608	400	13	4	4	10	0.13	6.56
4	Denver Broncos	3285	501	25	3	10	17	-0.05	6.23
5	New Orleans Saints	2386	403	14	5	3	4	-0.09	6.09
6	Philadelphia Eagles	2977	484	11	5	7	8	-0.13	5.73
7	Indianapolis Colts	2413	441	10	3	8	5	-0.03	5.66
8	Detroit Lions	2705	478	15	4	5	9	-0.07	5.62
9	Carolina Panthers	1965	389	10	5	5	6	0.17	5.43
10	Houston Texans	2668	500	9	11	2	9	0.28	5.42
11	Washington Redskins	2495	414	8	6	7	10	-0.28	5.40
12	Seattle Seahawks	2580	453	12	4	7	17	0.19	5.32
13	Chicago Bears	2574	424	13	7	7	8	-0.17	5.21
14	Cincinnati Bengals	2555	461	11	6	5	11	-0.12	5.09
15	Dallas Cowboys	2467	429	15	5	5	10	-0.25	5.03
16	San Francisco 49ers	2345	429	8	5	11	8	0.27	4.98
17	Pittsburgh Steelers	1979	366	7	5	2	10	0.10	4.90
18	Tennessee Titans	2181	438	10	5	3	10	0.29	4.85
19	Kansas City Chiefs	2315	471	7	4	7	7	-0.01	4.46
20	New England Patriots	2388	500	8	5	5	11	0.08	4.44
21	Oakland Raiders	1925	366	7	6	3	9	-0.23	4.28
22	Cleveland Browns	2196	479	11	9	1	6	-0.04	4.28
23	Baltimore Ravens	2301	474	8	8	5	7	-0.03	4.20
24	St. Louis Rams	2091	439	14	4	0	10	-0.01	4.17
25	Buffalo Bills	2333	498	7	5	7	13	0.19	4.10
26	New York Jets	2403	468	8	11	3	10	-0.03	4.09
27	Miami Dolphins	1876	365	9	7	5	8	-0.01	4.07
28	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1787	398	7	6	1	8	-0.06	3.97
29	Minnesota Vikings	1898	375	5	8	7	10	-0.17	3.89
30	Arizona Cardinals	2168	441	8	13	5	12	0.16	3.82
31	Jacksonville Jaguars	1974	441	3	12	3	8	0.01	3.42
32	New York Giants	2297	435	10	16	5	11	-0.21	3.41

Defensive Predictive Yards per Play, through Week 7:

Rank	Team	Yards	Plays	Passing TDs	INTs	Rushing TDs	Fumbles	SOS	PY/P (Ball-Control Adjusted
1	Kansas City Chiefs	2132	446	6	10	2	13	-0.20	3.57
2	Seattle Seahawks	1975	437	6	11	4	17	-0.05	3.60
3	New York Jets	2118	464	10	2	5	11	-0.06	3.98
4	San Francisco 49ers	2283	451	9	9	7	9	0.16	4.00
5	Baltimore Ravens	2401	447	11	4	1	12	0.08	4.21
6	Houston Texans	1874	394	10	3	6	7	0.11	4.25
7	Arizona Cardinals	2448	468	13	8	3	11	0.16	4.34
8	Cleveland Browns	2232	492	9	5	9	7	-0.07	4.46
9	Tennessee Titans	2359	443	6	6	8	10	0.14	4.46
10	New England Patriots	2469	491	7	8	4	10	-0.03	4.51
11	Oakland Raiders	2040	382	9	3	5	13	0.29	4.54
12	Carolina Panthers	1813	361	5	9	2	8	-0.43	4.73
13	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	2045	383	11	6	1	7	0.12	4.73
14	Buffalo Bills	2663	511	15	12	2	6	-0.27	4.84
15	New York Giants	2554	500	14	5	5	9	0.08	4.88
16	Cincinnati Bengals	2340	469	11	5	3	8	0.01	4.90
17	New Orleans Saints	2028	361	7	8	4	7	-0.17	4.92
18	Indianapolis Colts	2455	448	8	8	5	9	0.13	4.94
19	Miami Dolphins	2233	417	8	7	5	8	0.19	4.99
20	Green Bay Packers	2075	382	12	3	3	8	0.00	5.06
21	St. Louis Rams	2614	444	12	5	7	15	0.05	5.17
22	Pittsburgh Steelers	1841	371	5	2	6	5	-0.27	5.21
23	Minnesota Vikings	2347	434	14	7	7	10	-0.14	5.36
24	Dallas Cowboys	2757	484	14	9	3	8	0.17	5.36
25	Jacksonville Jaguars	2740	470	15	3	9	10	0.30	5.40
26	Denver Broncos	2779	472	14	9	7	6	-0.20	5.43
27	Washington Redskins	2334	380	11	4	9	5	0.24	5.49
28	Detroit Lions	2780	442	10	10	5	10	-0.09	5.50
29	Philadelphia Eagles	2889	509	14	8	5	8	0.07	5.61
30	Chicago Bears	2737	441	11	10	8	14	-0.05	5.70
31	Atlanta Falcons	2198	377	14	3	2	5	-0.28	6.23
32	San Diego Chargers	2650	419	10	3	2	7	0.00	6.59

Predictive Yards per Play Differential, through Week 7:

Rank	Team	PY/P Diff.	Remaining SOS	Projected Wins
1	Seattle Seahawks	1.72	-23.27	12.99
2	Green Bay Packers	1.50	-18.62	11.09
3	Houston Texans	1.18	-23.07	8.65
4	New Orleans Saints	1.17	3.05	11.49
5	San Francisco 49ers	0.97	-5.31	10.77
6	Kansas City Chiefs	0.89	12.35	11.75
7	Denver Broncos	0.80	14.07	11.52
8	Indianapolis Colts	0.72	-2.19	9.80
9	Carolina Panthers	0.69	5.63	8.25
10	Atlanta Falcons	0.48	18.60	7.51
11	Tennessee Titans	0.38	-15.61	7.62
12	San Diego Chargers	0.34	2.41	9.00
13	Cincinnati Bengals	0.19	-14.78	10.45
14	Detroit Lions	0.12	-18.55	9.04
15	Philadelphia Eagles	0.12	-16.07	7.45
16	New York Jets	0.11	-5.02	8.35
17	Baltimore Ravens	-0.01	-10.77	7.86
18	New England Patriots	-0.06	-2.82	9.50
19	Washington Redskins	-0.09	-1.18	6.64
20	Cleveland Browns	-0.18	-4.71	6.62
21	Oakland Raiders	-0.25	8.58	6.07
22	Pittsburgh Steelers	-0.31	-5.83	7.42
23	Dallas Cowboys	-0.33	-3.96	8.79
24	Chicago Bears	-0.49	1.84	8.19
25	Arizona Cardinals	-0.52	2.14	6.57
26	Buffalo Bills	-0.74	-7.48	6.77
27	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	-0.76	13.11	2.44
28	Miami Dolphins	-0.92	-5.63	6.77
29	St. Louis Rams	-1.00	12.15	5.79
30	Minnesota Vikings	-1.46	15.35	3.50
31	New York Giants	-1.47	10.64	3.62
32	Jacksonville Jaguars	-1.98	3.27	1.45

The top five teams in this week’s Predictive Yards per Play rankings remain the same and stay in the exact same order. Seattle remains the clear #1 team, although Green Bay did make some notable gains on them this week. Then comes – sigh – Houston, followed by idle New Orleans and San Francisco. The biggest risers this week were Washington and (weirdly, given their blowout loss to the 49ers) Tennessee, both of whom rose four spots. Chicago and New England both fell four spots, making those two the biggest falls in this week’s rankings.

The most interesting development to come out of this week’s rankings, though, is a complete reshuffling of the Predictive Yards per Play playoff projections for the AFC from last week. Five of the six teams remain the same, but each projected seed is different from the post-Week 6 rankings. Most notably, Denver’s loss to Indianapolis has now installed Kansas City as a slight favorite to win the AFC West and the home-field advantage throughout the playoffs that’s likely to come with the title.

Even so, though, the projection model only sees Kansas City going roughly 5-4 the rest of the way – they still have both games against Denver and San Diego (the two current projected wild-card teams) remaining and have to play Indianapolis the second-to-last week of the season. Cincinnati, meanwhile, is the new favorite to get the second bye in the AFC, but is projected to do so with only 10.5 wins.  In other words, Predictive Yards per Play doesn’t really forecast any AFC team to go off on a wild tear in the second half of the season. Well, except for Houston, but that’s a bug in the system that unfortunately doesn’t seem to be going away any time soon.

That probably speaks to the state of the AFC this season – it’s the undeniably deeper conference in 2013, but all of the top contenders have notable flaws. I talked last week about the struggles of Kansas City’s offense and Denver’s defense. Both units trended upward this week, but remain worse than any unit that has ever been apart of a Super Bowl-winning team. Cincinnati is slightly above-average on both sides of the ball – not exactly the most terrifying combination to face in the postseason. It’s possible this is the year that the wheels have actually fallen off for Tom Brady and Indianapolis just lost Reggie Wayne, by far their best receiver, to a torn ACL.

In other words? Things still look pretty wide open in the AFC. In the NFC, on the other hand, it’s pretty tough to imagine the conference’s Super Bowl representative not coming from the Seattle-Green Bay-New Orleans-San Francisco quadrumvirate. Dallas’s victory at Philadelphia re-installed them as the favorites to win the NFC East and Detroit remains the most likely recipient of the last wild-card slot because of a very easy remaining schedule. Seattle’s the highest-rated team in the league so far, however, and also has the easiest remaining schedule in the league. Green Bay and San Francisco also have easier than average schedules the rest of the way and the Saints have three home games in their next four overall that should build some cushion for when they have to play four away games out of five starting in late November.

Projected AFC Playoff Picture, through Week 7:

1. Kansas City (11.8 wins)
2. Cincinnati (10.5 wins)
3. Indianapolis (9.8 wins)
4. New England (9.5 wins)
5. Denver (11.5 wins)
6. San Diego (9.0 wins)

In the hunt: Houston (8.7 wins), NY Jets (8.4 wins), Baltimore (7.9 wins), Tennessee (7.6 wins), Pittsburgh (7.4 wins)

Mediocre: Buffalo (6.8 wins), Miami (6.8 wins), Cleveland (6.6 wins), Oakland (6.1 wins)

Teddy Bridgewater Sweepstakes: Jacksonville (1.5 wins)

Projected NFC Playoff Picture, through Week 6:

1. Seattle (13.0 wins)
2. New Orleans (11.5 wins)
3. Green Bay (11.1 wins)
4. Dallas (8.8 wins)
5. San Francisco (10.8 wins)
6. Detroit (9.0 wins)

In the hunt: Carolina (8.3 wins), Chicago (8.2 wins), Atlanta (7.5 wins), Philadelphia (7.5 wins)

Mediocre: Washington (6.6 wins), Arizona (6.6 wins), St. Louis (5.8 wins),

Teddy Bridgewater Sweepstakes: NY Giants (3.6 wins), Minnesota (3.5 wins), Tampa Bay (2.4 wins)

Week 6 Predictive Yards per Play Rankings

Here are my Week 6 NFL power rankings (which don’t include stats from last night’s Seattle-Arizona game):

Offensive Predictive Yards per Play, through Week 6:

Rank	Team	Yards	Plays	Passing TDs	INTs	Rushing TDs	Fumbles	SOS	PY/P (Ball-Control Adjusted
1	Green Bay Packers	2251	334	10	4	3	9	0.33	6.74
2	Denver Broncos	2856	428	22	2	9	13	-0.11	6.74
3	Atlanta Falcons	1957	325	10	3	3	6	0.06	6.70
4	Philadelphia Eagles	2699	409	11	2	7	8	-0.08	6.32
5	San Diego Chargers	2386	394	14	5	1	6	-0.16	6.29
6	Indianapolis Colts	2079	370	7	3	7	4	0.15	6.14
7	New Orleans Saints	2386	403	14	5	3	4	-0.10	6.07
8	Seattle Seahawks	2236	389	9	4	6	13	0.24	5.53
9	Houston Texans	2374	446	8	11	2	7	0.30	5.49
10	Carolina Panthers	1683	332	9	5	4	5	0.07	5.47
11	Chicago Bears	2215	372	12	6	4	8	0.00	5.38
12	Dallas Cowboys	2099	354	14	3	4	9	-0.17	5.33
13	Detroit Lions	2271	402	12	4	5	9	-0.18	5.10
14	Washington Redskins	1996	341	6	5	4	8	-0.36	4.98
15	Cincinnati Bengals	2134	408	8	6	5	10	-0.07	4.73
16	Tennessee Titans	1813	381	8	4	3	9	0.28	4.61
17	New England Patriots	2093	430	8	4	3	8	0.06	4.60
18	Pittsburgh Steelers	1693	311	6	5	2	9	0.07	4.57
19	San Francisco 49ers	1996	365	8	5	8	8	0.05	4.56
20	Minnesota Vikings	1692	307	5	7	7	8	-0.06	4.45
21	Cleveland Browns	1980	411	10	8	1	6	0.06	4.42
22	Buffalo Bills	2065	432	7	4	6	11	0.29	4.32
23	Miami Dolphins	1583	301	6	5	5	7	0.00	4.27
24	St. Louis Rams	1774	380	13	3	0	6	0.00	4.27
25	Oakland Raiders	1925	366	8	6	3	9	-0.16	4.20
26	New York Jets	2020	379	7	10	2	8	0.01	4.09
27	Kansas City Chiefs	1958	403	7	3	7	9	-0.17	3.91
28	Arizona Cardinals	1934	371	7	11	4	10	0.12	3.89
29	Baltimore Ravens	2014	413	7	8	5	6	-0.12	3.85
30	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1450	323	5	6	1	6	0.01	3.83
31	New York Giants	2040	362	9	16	4	8	-0.30	3.55
32	Jacksonville Jaguars	1621	382	3	11	3	8	0.02	3.02

Defensive Predictive Yards per Play, through Week 6:

Rank	Team	Yards	Plays	Passing TDs	INTs	Rushing TDs	Fumbles	SOS	PY/P (Ball-Control Adjusted
1	Kansas City Chiefs	1838	392	5	10	2	11	-0.20	3.41
2	San Francisco 49ers	1915	394	7	8	7	8	0.33	3.56
3	Seattle Seahawks	1741	367	5	9	3	15	-0.10	3.74
4	Baltimore Ravens	2115	392	10	4	1	11	0.23	3.87
5	New York Jets	1823	394	10	1	3	9	0.02	3.98
6	Houston Texans	1517	326	10	2	4	6	0.03	4.18
7	Cleveland Browns	1875	426	6	5	8	6	-0.23	4.35
8	New England Patriots	2086	402	6	7	3	8	0.05	4.39
9	Cincinnati Bengals	1906	393	8	5	3	8	0.07	4.40
10	Tennessee Titans	2010	379	6	6	5	10	-0.06	4.49
11	Arizona Cardinals	2104	404	10	8	2	7	0.00	4.59
12	Oakland Raiders	2040	382	9	3	5	13	0.10	4.62
13	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1754	339	8	6	1	6	0.01	4.69
14	Carolina Panthers	1496	302	4	8	2	4	-0.21	4.69
15	New Orleans Saints	2028	361	7	8	4	7	-0.06	4.79
16	Pittsburgh Steelers	1554	310	4	2	6	4	-0.16	4.92
17	Buffalo Bills	2370	447	12	10	2	5	-0.21	4.93
18	Jacksonville Jaguars	2306	403	14	3	7	10	0.20	5.01
19	Detroit Lions	2359	389	7	10	5	9	0.00	5.02
20	New York Giants	2348	432	14	4	5	7	0.22	5.26
21	Indianapolis Colts	2026	375	5	7	4	6	-0.11	5.27
22	St. Louis Rams	2332	387	11	5	6	14	-0.03	5.40
23	Green Bay Packers	1859	314	11	2	3	8	-0.21	5.40
24	Miami Dolphins	1965	351	8	6	4	6	0.27	5.41
25	Washington Redskins	1975	328	10	3	6	5	0.30	5.43
26	Chicago Bears	2238	368	9	9	5	12	-0.13	5.54
27	Minnesota Vikings	2090	361	13	7	6	7	-0.02	5.79
28	San Diego Chargers	2297	360	10	2	2	7	0.24	5.88
29	Denver Broncos	2445	401	11	9	6	5	-0.28	5.93
30	Dallas Cowboys	2479	409	14	6	3	8	-0.02	5.95
31	Philadelphia Eagles	2521	434	13	6	4	7	-0.07	6.10
32	Atlanta Falcons	1861	302	12	3	2	3	-0.12	6.28

Predictive Yards per Play Differential, through Week 6:

Rank	Team	PY/P Diff.	Remaining SOS	Projected Wins
1	Seattle Seahawks	1.79	-25.65	12.86
2	Green Bay Packers	1.34	-15.71	10.28
3	Houston Texans	1.31	-22.59	9.64
4	New Orleans Saints	1.28	-0.44	11.40
5	San Francisco 49ers	1.00	-11.00	10.86
6	Indianapolis Colts	0.86	-1.71	9.12
7	Denver Broncos	0.80	10.65	12.41
8	Carolina Panthers	0.77	-4.17	7.71
9	Kansas City Chiefs	0.50	17.30	10.48
10	Atlanta Falcons	0.42	1.90	7.36
11	San Diego Chargers	0.41	-11.07	8.81
12	Cincinnati Bengals	0.32	-8.21	9.89
13	Philadelphia Eagles	0.22	-19.20	8.15
14	New England Patriots	0.20	0.71	10.37
15	Tennessee Titans	0.11	-14.15	7.50
16	New York Jets	0.11	-7.58	7.71
17	Detroit Lions	0.09	-17.32	9.71
18	Cleveland Browns	0.07	5.25	7.08
19	Baltimore Ravens	-0.02	0.58	7.98
20	Chicago Bears	-0.16	3.00	8.94
21	Pittsburgh Steelers	-0.34	-6.19	7.12
22	Oakland Raiders	-0.42	6.10	6.06
23	Washington Redskins	-0.46	-4.19	5.91
24	Buffalo Bills	-0.61	-12.29	6.33
25	Dallas Cowboys	-0.62	-2.31	8.15
26	Arizona Cardinals	-0.70	7.68	6.45
27	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	-0.85	17.46	2.46
28	St. Louis Rams	-1.13	12.80	6.14
29	Miami Dolphins	-1.14	-11.19	7.37
30	Minnesota Vikings	-1.34	11.08	4.87
31	New York Giants	-1.71	-0.73	3.07
32	Jacksonville Jaguars	-2.00	3.14	1.45

After outplaying Tennessee by a significantly larger margin than the 20-13 final score would indicate, Seattle widens its lead as the #1 team in Predictive Yards per Play Differential this week. Green Bay leapfrogs Houston, who have now thoroughly perfected the art of outplaying their opponents in most key statistical indicators and still get blown out anyway, for the #2 position. New Orleans and San Francisco round out the top five, perhaps indicating the prevailing preseason view of the NFC being the superior conference wasn’t so wrong after all.

The most noticeable trend I saw this week when compiling the ratings is how one-dimensional most of the highly ranked teams seem to be this season. That is, most well-rated teams are performing extremely well on either offense or defense but poorly on the other side of the ball. All of the current top six teams on offense – Green Bay, Denver, Atlanta, Philadelphia, San Diego and Indianapolis – rate well below average on defense. And on the other side, Kansas City, San Francisco, Baltimore and the New York Jets are all in the top five defensively but come out well below average on offense.

Only four teams right now have above-average ratings on both offense and defense – two you would expect (Seattle and New Orleans) and two you wouldn’t (Houston and Carolina). Since the Texans have crossed over into full-blown implosion mode and the Panthers can’t be taken seriously in any game that’s not decided by fewer than 25 points, that would seem to suggest that the Seahawks and Saints deserve to be the two biggest favorites to win Super Bowl XLIII, right?

In actuality, while those two teams deserve to be mentioned at the top of any Super Bowl contenders list, history suggests that not all hope is lost for the rest of the league. I looked back at the Predictive Yards per Play ratings that I’ve run back to the 1970 season and compiled a list of all the Super Bowl champions that rated below average on one side of the ball or the other. The list, as you can see below in reverse chronological order, is rather larger than I expected.

• 2009 Saints (-0.32 defensively)
• 2008 Steelers (-0.01 offensively)
• 2006 Colts (-0.08 defensively)
• 2002 Buccaneers (-0.31 offensively)
• 2000 Ravens (-0.28 offensively)
• 1998 Broncos (-0.31 defensively)
• 1995 Cowboys (-0.02 defensively)
• 1987 Redskins (-0.26 defensively)
• 1984 49ers (-0.16 defensively)
• 1983 Raiders (-0.11 offensively)
• 1980 Raiders (-0.22 offensively)
• 1978 Steelers (-0.01 offensively)
• 1976 Raiders (-0.27 defensively)
• 1974 Steelers (-0.19 offensively)
• 1970 Colts (-0.36 offensively, -0.49 defensively)

So 15 of the past 43 Super Bowl champions – about 35% of the title winners since 1970, in other words – have been below average on offense and/or defense. Clearly, being subpar on one side of the ball or the other isn’t an insurmountable barrier to winning the Super Bowl. It obviously helps to be good at both offense and defense, but being great at one or the other certainly seems to have worked out for a lot of teams.

The main kernel of wisdom I take away from that list is that you can definitely win a Super Bowl with a below-average unit as long as that unit isn’t truly terrible. Some of the teams showing up on that list were so slightly below average on one side of the ball that it’s probably splitting hairs to call them something other than “roughly average.” The others were all within enough shouting distance of league average to not wipe out their vastly superior units’ gains and could all potentially provide something of value to the team. The 1970 Colts are the only exception provided in the past 43 seasons and their postseason success can be easily explained away as a byproduct of the turmoil the AFC went through in its first post-merger season in the NFL.

With that last paragraph in mind, let’s take a look at the two undefeated AFC West teams, Denver and Kansas City. Both are in virtual ties for first place on one side of the ball – the Broncos obviously on offense and the Chiefs on defense – but rate so far below average on the other that it would be historically unprecedented for either team to win the Super Bowl if they maintained their current ratings throughout the course of the season. Denver’s defense rates a full yard below average and gave up 362 yards of offense last week to Jacksonville, who had seemingly only gained 362 yards of offense in the five games prior. Champ Bailey came back from injury in that game and Von Miller’s six-game suspension is now in the books, so that unit will likely improve but right now they’re not even in the same zip code as league average.

The Chiefs’ offense is almost as bad – they rank 27th this week with 3.91 Predictive Yards per Play, also a yard below average. Excluding the fluky 1970 Colts, the two other worst offensive Super Bowl champions – the 2002 Bucs and 2000 Ravens – both had historically great defenses to fall back on. If the Chiefs maintained their current defensive performance, they would probably deserve to be called a historically great defense – however, this is the same defense that finished 26th in the league in Defensive PY/P last season, so a drop-off in quality could very well be forthcoming.

Other Super Bowl contenders that may be in danger of being too one-sided are the Packers and 49ers – Green Bay’s defense rates .48 yards per play below average and the 49ers’ offense is currently .37 yards per play below average. Both those marks would also rate as the worst Super Bowl champion unit (non-1970 Colts division) of all time.

The only change in this week’s playoff projections comes from the NFC East, where Philadelphia is now expected to win .003 games more than Dallas. PRINT THOSE PLAYOFF TICKETS NOW, EAGLES FANS. For all intents and purposes, let’s just say that the NFC East is probably going to come down to the two games between the Cowboys and Eagles. Otherwise, the computer is still stubbornly clinging to its vision of a 2013 AFC South title for the Texans, not knowing that one more pick-six will cause the fanbase to burn Reliant Stadium to the ground. I pray next week will finally be the time the computer agrees with the other 99.9999999% of Football America and predicts the Colts will win the AFC South.

Projected AFC Playoff Picture, through Week 6:

1. Denver (12.4 wins)
2. New England (10.4 wins)
3. Cincinnati (9.9 wins)
4. Houston (9.6 wins)
5. Kansas City (10.5 wins)
6. Indianapolis (9.1 wins)

In the hunt: San Diego (8.8 wins), Baltimore (8.0 wins), NY Jets (7.7 wins), Tennessee (7.5 wins), Miami (7.4 wins)

Mediocre: Pittsburgh (7.1 wins), Cleveland (7.1 wins), Buffalo (6.3 wins), Oakland (6.1 wins)

Teddy Bridgewater Sweepstakes: Jacksonville (1.5 wins)

Projected NFC Playoff Picture, through Week 6:

1. Seattle (12.9 wins)
2. New Orleans (11.4 wins)
3. Green Bay (10.3 wins)
4. Philadelphia (8.2 wins)
5. San Francisco (10.9 wins)
6. Detroit (9.7 wins)

In the hunt: Chicago (8.9 wins), Dallas (8.2 wins)

Mediocre: Carolina (7.7 wins), Atlanta (7.4 wins), Arizona (6.5 wins), St. Louis (6.1 wins), Washington (5.9 wins)

Teddy Bridgewater Sweepstakes: Minnesota (4.9 wins), NY Giants (3.1 wins), Tampa Bay (2.5 wins)

COAS/SSLYAR Pigskin Pick’Em: Week 7

Busy week offline this time, so an abbreviated and tardy Confessions of a Sportscaster/Someone Still Loves You Alberto Riveron Week 7 picks against the spread column appears below. Hope you guys enjoy it!

 

Thursday Night: Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (+6.5)

Both Lucas and Nathaniel: Cardinals. We’re off to a great start!

Sunday, Early Afternoon: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (-7.5)

Lucas: Buccaneers. I know this game is in Atlanta, but what have they shown this year that should make them this big a favorite against anyone? Yeah, Tampa is bad too, but I’m taking the points.

Nathaniel: Buccaneers. I’m gonna miss the crap out of Julio Jones for the rest of the season – that guy was probably the most fun receiver to watch over the first month of 2013.

Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (-8.5)

Lucas: Dolphins. Still not quite sure what to make of Miami, but without Manuel I don’t know that the Bills can pull it off.

Nathaniel: Bills. My new strategy this week is to generally pick the teams that are getting points, unless I don’t see any possible way they can cover. Ryan Tannehill will probably let himself get sacked enough for the Bills to get the cover this week.

Chicago Bears at Washington Redskins (-1.5)

Lucas: Redskins. Anyone else think Deangelo Hall has had this game circled on his calendar?

Nathaniel: Bears. Thanks for the reminder of one of the most painful Bears losses of the past five years, Lucas!

Cincinnati Bengals at Detroit Lions (-2.5)

Lucas: Lions. I think Ndamukong Suh is as big a scumbag as anyone, but I’m not so sure the hit on Brandon Weeden he had this past week is deserving of a fine for once. Give him and the Lions the benefit this time.

Nathaniel: Bengals. My faith in the Bengals flip-flops tremendously every week. Right now, I think they’re the odds-on favorites to win the NFC North. Tune in next week when I pronounce them chokers and the heirs to an eventual 7-9 record!

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5)

Lucas: Cowboys. Dallas already showed they can get into a shootout with elite offenses. Even on the road I think they can pull this one off.

Nathaniel: Eagles. I’ve always been a big Nick Foles supporter, ever since he started playing well last week.

St. Louis Rams at Carolina Panthers (-6.5)

Lucas: Rams. Taking the points despite feelings of “Holy crap! Ron Rivera is reading Bill Barnwell!”

Nathaniel: Rams. Can’t take the Panthers in good conscience unless I feel confident their game is going to be decided by 25 points or more.

New England Patriots at New York Jets (+4.5)

Lucas: Patriots. At this point I feel like Nathaniel and I could be Tom Brady’s wide receivers and the Pats could still be 5-1. I’m just waiting to see what happens when Gronk comes back.

Nathaniel: Jets. No, I haven’t heard that Gronk is coming back this week, why do you ask?

San Diego Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars (+7.5)

Lucas: Chargers. I’m much more comfortable picking a 7.5 point spread than the one 20 points bigger. And Phil Rivers has been better this year. I’ll pounce on this one.

Nathaniel: Jaguars. No, I haven’t heard that the Jaguars haven’t lost a game by fewer than 10 points this season, why do you ask?

San Francisco 49ers at Tennessee Titans (+4.5)

Lucas: 49ers. People have been kind of quiet about the Niners for much of the season. I think this might be a statement game.

Nathaniel: 49ers. That poor schmuck Ryan Fitzpatrick gets another chance at starting and the first three defenses he has to face are the Chiefs, Seahawks and 49ers? NOT COOL.

Cleveland Browns at Green Bay Packers (-10.5)

Lucas: Packers. I was going to take Cleveland at first based on the size of this spread, plus Jarret Boykin potentially being Green Bay’s #2 wide receiver. Then I remembered Brandon Weeden is Cleveland’s quarterback.

Nathaniel: Browns. Equally as ugly as the above Weeden-ception was virtually any attempt Jarret Boykin made at catching a pass last week – and he might be Rodgers’ #2 receiver.

Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5)

Lucas: Chiefs. Brandon Flowers pick six? Anyone?

Nathaniel: Chiefs. Feeling roughly a zillion times more confident about this one after Gary Kubiak pushed the panic button and decided to start CASE KEENUM at quarterback this week. In case there was any doubt that the Texans are headed for a raging tire fire of a 2013 season, that move erased any of those lingering feelings.

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-1.5)

Lucas: Ravens. Yeah, Baltimore is a shell of itself, but so is Pittsburgh. I feel the only thing the Steelers could do would be to have Bane blow up Heinz Field when the Ravens step out.

Nathaniel: Steelers. Coin flip said, “Take Pittsburgh.” So I am!

Denver Broncos at Indianapolis Colts (+6.5)

Lucas: Colts. This is going to be a cool game. As much as I’m sure Manning will be energized by going back to his old stomping grounds, Indy seems to have some magic at home. I’ll take the points, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Indy can pull this one off.

Nathaniel: Broncos. Time to amend the “Never bet against Peyton Manning at night” rule to include the following provision: “Never, ever, ever under any circumstances bet against Peyton Manning at night when he’s playing his first game back at Indianapolis.”

Minnesota Vikings at New York Giants (-3.5)

Lucas: Vikings. Lol Eli Manning. …please don’t hurt me.

Nathaniel: Vikings. HOW ARE THE GIANTS FAVORED OVER ANYONE OTHER THAN JACKSONVILLE? Sorry, that deserved all CAPS.

2013 Records:

Lucas: 52-41 (6-9 last week, 0-1 so far this week)

Nathaniel: 45-48 (6-9 last week, 0-1 so far this week)

QB Charting, Week 4: Patriots-Falcons, Bengals-Browns and Cowboys-Chargers

Just a straight data dump this time, but hopefully some of you will find this interesting!

New England Patriots

Tom Brady: Week 4, at Atlanta.

Passing Breakdown

	Comp.	Att.	Yards	Sacks	Sck Yards	TDs	INTs	ANY/A
Dropback	9	16	120	0	0	1	0	8.75
Play-Action	10	14	201	0	0	1	0	15.79
Screen	1	1	-5	0	0	0	0	-5.00
Designed Rollout	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00
Total	20	31	316	0	0	2	0	11.48

Rushing/Miscellaneous Stats

	Scrambles	Yards	Fumbles	Penalties	Drops	Inaccurate throws
Dropback	0	0	0	1, 15 yards	3	4
Play-Action	0	0	0	0	1	2
Screen	0	0	0	0	0	0
Designed Rollout	0	0	0	0	0	0
Total	0	0	0	1, 15 yards	4	6

Atlanta Falcons

Matt Ryan: Week 4, vs. New England.

Passing Breakdown

	Comp.	Att.	Yards	Sacks	Sck Yards	TDs	INTs	ANY/A
Dropback	29	46	391	2	22	2	0	8.52
Play-Action	2	4	19	0	0	0	1	-6.50
Screen	3	3	11	0	0	0	0	3.67
Designed Rollout	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0.00
Total	34	54	421	2	22	2	1	7.04

Rushing/Miscellaneous Stats

	Scrambles	Yards	Fumbles	Penalties	Drops	Inaccurate throws
Dropback	0	0	0	2, 20 yards	8	3
Play-Action	0	0	0	1, 38 yards	0	1
Screen	0	0	0	0	0	0
Designed Rollout	0	0	0	0	0	1
Total	0	0	0	3, 58 yards	8	5

Cincinnati Bengals

Andy Dalton: Week 4, at Cleveland.

Passing Breakdown

	Comp.	Att.	Yards	Sacks	Sck Yards	TDs	INTs	ANY/A
Dropback	17	32	172	1	5	0	1	3.70
Play-Action	1	5	2	1	1	0	0	0.17
Screen	5	5	32	0	0	0	0	6.40
Designed Rollout	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00
Total	23	42	206	2	6	0	1	3.52

Rushing/Miscellaneous Stats

	Scrambles	Yards	Fumbles	Penalties	Drops	Inaccurate throws
Dropback	2	11	1	0	3	6
Play-Action	0	0	0	1, 40 yards	1	2
Screen	0	0	0	0	0	0
Designed Rollout	0	0	0	0	0	0
Total	2	11	1	1, 40 yards	4	8

Cleveland Browns

Brian Hoyer: Week 4, vs. Cincinnati.

Passing Breakdown

	Comp.	Att.	Yards	Sacks	Sck Yards	TDs	INTs	ANY/A
Dropback	15	25	158	2	18	1	0	5.93
Play-Action	8	11	64	1	4	1	0	6.67
Screen	2	2	47	0	0	0	0	23.50
Designed Rollout	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00
Total	25	38	269	3	22	2	0	7.00

Rushing/Miscellaneous Stats

	Scrambles	Yards	Fumbles	Penalties	Drops	Inaccurate throws
Dropback	1	8	0	0	3	4
Play-Action	0	0	0	0	0	2
Screen	0	0	0	0	0	0
Designed Rollout	0	0	0	0	0	0
Total	1	8	0	0	3	6

Dallas Cowboys

Tony Romo: Week 4, at San Diego.

Passing Breakdown

	Comp.	Att.	Yards	Sacks	Sck Yards	TDs	INTs	ANY/A
Dropback	25	34	202	2	15	1	0	5.75
Play-Action	2	3	48	1	4	1	0	16.00
Screen	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00
Designed Rollout	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00
Total	27	37	250	3	19	2	0	6.78

Rushing/Miscellaneous Stats

	Scrambles	Yards	Fumbles	Penalties	Drops	Inaccurate throws
Dropback	1	15	0	1, 25 yards	4	2
Play-Action	0	0	0	0	1	0
Screen	0	0	0	0	0	0
Designed Rollout	0	0	0	0	0	0
Total	1	15	0	1, 25 yards	5	2

San Diego Chargers

Philip Rivers: Week 4, vs. Dallas.

Passing Breakdown

	Comp.	Att.	Yards	Sacks	Sck Yards	TDs	INTs	ANY/A
Dropback	22	28	247	1	7	2	1	8.10
Play-Action	9	10	140	0	0	1	0	16.00
Screen	4	4	14	0	0	0	0	3.50
Designed Rollout	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00
Total	35	42	401	1	7	3	1	9.51

Rushing/Miscellaneous Stats

	Scrambles	Yards	Fumbles	Penalties	Drops	Inaccurate throws
Dropback	0	0	0	1, 3 yards	0	2
Play-Action	0	0	0	0	0	0
Screen	0	0	0	0	0	0
Designed Rollout	0	0	0	0	0	0
Total	0	0	0	1, 3 yards	0	2