San Francisco 49ers
- 2011 Record: 13-3 (1st in NFC West, lost NFC Championship Game to NY Giants)
- 2011 Point Differential: +151 (4th out of 32)
- 2011 Strength of Schedule (per PFR’s SRS system): -1.1 (27th)
- 2011 Adjusted Net Yards per Pass Attempt (offense): 6.2 (12th)
- 2011 Adjusted Net Yards per Pass Attempt (defense): 4.9 (t-4th)
- 2011 Adjusted Pythagorean Record (accounting for Strength of Schedule): 11.7-4.3 (t-1st)
- 2010 Adjusted Pythagorean Record: 5.4-10.6 (27th)
And now a very special preview of the 2012 49ers from Super Bowl-winning coach and current ESPN announcer Jon Gruden. Take it away, Coach Gruden!
I’ve been around the game a lotta years and I can’t remember a team making such a MOMENTOUS TURNAROUND in just one season like THESE SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS DID last year. And I tell ya…*raises right hand, squints*…it WARMED THE COCKLES OF MY HEART to see them do so. I see Pat Willis out there, flying around, puttin’ a hat on a hat, getting his defense in the right position – he reminds me a lot of a guy you may heard of named RAY LEWIS. *chuckles* I tell ‘ya, if I had eleven Patrick Willises on my defense, I wouldn’t need an offense – but I’d still have one because I love the six-yard slant TOO MUCH. I also see MY GUY Justin Smith out there bull rushing the snot out of these poor saps they’ve got out there at offensive tackle these days. Now I didn’t run any SCIENTIFIC STUDIES or anything on this, but by my count I’ve got Justin Smith blowing up approximately EIGHT HUNDRED AND THIRTEEN PLAYS IN THE BACKFIELD last year. You think you might like a guy like that on your ballclub? *chuckles* And, finally, ALEX SMITH – how about THIS GUY? Here’s a guy who’s going out there, SILENCING THE CRITICS, playing smart, mistake-free football and showing everyone that, hey…*raises right hand even further, squints even more*…THIS GUY can be a star quarterback in the NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE.
And it’s all thanks to the PERSPICACIOUS TUTELAGE of MR. JIM HARBAUGH, a DESERVING RECIPIENT of last year’s NFL Coach of the Year award. What Jim was able to accomplish last year in such a CONSTRICTED PERIOD OF TIME illustrates ONCE AGAIN just how important the coaching profession truly is. Now I’m not one to slag off Mike Singletary, the OUTSTANDING former coach of these 49ers. Mike is a TRULY INSPIRING INDIVIDUAL and I greatly enjoy the luncheons he serves at his motivational seminars. But Jimmy Harbaugh reminded us of one of the GREAT TRUTHS of football: if you install some simple concepts that are easy to understand, drill your team on those concepts until their PROFICIENCY CAUSES THE OPPOSING TEAM TO VACATE THEIR BOWELS, and are willing to think outside the box…*smirks at imaginary Mike Tirico*…you’re gonna have some success. I tell ya, what Jimmy did last year reminds me a lot of my first year across that bay they’ve got there in central California with the OAKLAND RAIDERS. I was a PRECOCIOUS YOUNG MASTERMIND looking to make my mark on a team of UNRULY RUFFIANS who could only run roughly SEVENTEEN DIFFERENT PERMUTATIONS of the six-yard slant play. *rolls eyes, chuckles exasperatedly* Needless to say, I had my WORK CUT OUT FOR ME. So, to let these clowns know that there was A NEW SHERIFF IN TOWN (and to also live out a childhood fantasy), I had a picture of myself portraying an Old West law enforcement officer printed up all over our training camp facility in Napa, California. Here, I even dug it up out of the old GRUDEN FAMILY ARCHIVES for you all to enjoy:
*smirks* Well, well, well, who’s that handsome devil? *chuckles heartily* I tell ya, Hollywood, if any of you filmmakers out there need someone to portray a sense of AUTHORITARIAN EROTICISM in one of your movies… you know who to call. Needless to say, my Raiders RESPONDED POSITIVELY to that image to the tune of EIGHT WINS in 1998 (it would have been more, but I had to start Donald Hollas at quarterback for six games). More importantly, it set forth the foundation for the period of SUSTAINED SUCCESS we would enjoy the next three years before I jumped ship and escaped Al Davis’ SKELETAL CLUTCHES. Being the TRAILBLAZING VISIONARY that I am, I can only assume Jimmy Harbaugh took the very same photos before his first training camp. AND LOOK AT THE RESULTS. *smirks, gets satisfied look* Never underestimate the POWER OF UNCONTROLLABLE GENIUS.
Finally, to wrap up my thoughts here on these San Francisco 49ers here: I saw a lot of people get upset with Jimmy Harbaugh for his, shall we say, ENTHUSIASTIC HANDSHAKE with the OUTSTANDING coach of the DETROIT LIONS, Jimmy Schwartz. Now I understand Jimmy Schwartz TOOK EXCEPTION to the VIGORISITY of Jimmy Harbaugh’s fervor. But this is football we’re talking about here. There’s no room for hurt feelings here. If you want to go home crying to your mommy WITH YOUR MASCARA ALL RUNNY and your estrogen levels RUNNING AMOK, choose a different sport, pal. I remember the first game I ever coached against Bobby Petrino, the one year he was coaching the Falcons. As I recall, we won the game 31-7. And as Bobby and I headed onto the field for the post-game handshake, I could see him trying to avoid eye contact – like he was ashamed of how his team had played. Well, sensing an opportunity to haze the newest member of the coaching profession, I took Bobby’s hand and said – I’m paraphrasing here because the exact language is probably not suitable for a MASS AUDIENCE – “You should probably consider visiting a proctologist, Bobby, because the fudgies I see all over your face leads me to believe your keester’s probably not in the best of shape.” Do I even need to tell you that he went crying back to the college game three weeks later? *chuckles, gets smug look* I tell ya, if you can’t go out there on that field with a CAN’T-LOSE attitude, then why even play the game? I see that attitude in Jimmy Harbaugh and THESE SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS and that’s why they’re MY PICK…*raises right hand and eyebrow*…to go all the way and win the Super Bowl. GREAT COACHES…*grins devilishly*…never get denied. *sighs, resumes cleaning bird poop off his Corvette*…
Random thoughts
The main reason San Francisco shocked the world and went 13-3 last year? Turnover differential. The 49ers’ +28 differential last year tied for the fourth best mark of all time and that turnover luck carried over into their Divisional Round game against New Orleans, the +4 advantage proving to be the difference in a very close game. Unfortunately, regression towards the mean is likely going to set in. Here’s the list of all teams in NFL history who had a +25 or greater turnover margin in a single season (ignore the 1946 Browns, who were playing in the first AAFC season). On average, these teams give back 17.6 turnovers the following season. Further, the only teams that didn’t suffer a double digit drop in turnover differential were the ’41 and ’43 Packers and ’58 Colts – teams that played in an environment where turnovers occurred roughly twice as often as they do today. In short, it’s probably fair to assume the 49ers’ 2012 turnover differential will decrease by at least 20 turnovers…Related to the above comment: Alex Smith was lauded for resurrecting his career in 2011, but his Net Yards per Attempt figure was only good enough for a tie for 21st. His success was tied to a completely unsustainable interception rate of 1.1%; his career interception rate of 3.0% is usually the NFL average. Expect his interception rate to fall much more in line with the latter figure…The 49ers signed Super Bowl hero Mario Manningham and Randy Moss in the offseason to fill out their thin receiving corps. Both will provide upgrades, but neither figures to be a miracle worker. The Giants let Manningham go because he drops far too many passes to be a #1 or #2 receiver and when we last saw Moss, he wasn’t good enough to crack the Titans’ receiving rotation in 2010, which is an insult that doesn’t really require further comment…
Outlook
Bill Simmons created the term “grenade” (apparently a Jersey Shore reference that I am so, so happy I don’t understand) for any #1 or #2 seed from a given season that dropped at least three wins and missed the playoffs entirely the following season. Every season from 2003 (the 4-12 Raiders) through 2011 (the 8-8 Bears) has had at least one grenade and in 2012, the 49ers seem to fit the grenade profile perfectly. To beat a dead horse further: their success last season was completely built around unsustainably favorable turnover differential and unsustainably excellent special teams. Move the turnover margin around to about average and downgrade the special teams from great to merely good and you see a team with a good but not great defense and an offense that is wholly dependent on receiving great field position from the other phases of the team. “Regression to the mean” was a term created with the 2012 49ers in mind. With that said, the rest of the NFC West remains wholly unremarkable. So if Jim Harbaugh can stave off some of his team’s expected downfall (and by all appearances he ‘s a good enough coach to do so), the 49ers could drop three or four games from last year and still repeat as NFC West champions. Our projection is a little more pessimistic, however.
2012 Projected Point Differential: 296.6-333.4
2012 Average Projection: 6.9-9.1 (3rd in NFC West)
Someone Still Loves You, Alberto Riveron 