2012 Team Previews: New York Giants

New York Giants

  • 2011 Record: 9-7 (1st in NFC East, won Super Bowl XLVI against New England)
  • 2011 Point Differential: -6 (19th out of 32)
  • 2011 Strength of Schedule (per PFR’s SRS system): +2.0 (3rd)
  • 2011 Adjusted Net Yards per Pass Attempt (offense): 7.4 (4th)
  • 2011 Adjusted Net Yards per Pass Attempt (defense): 5.9 (t-17th)
  • 2011 Adjusted Pythagorean Record (accounting for Strength of Schedule): 8.6-7.4 (13th)
  • 2010 Adjusted Pythagorean Record: 8.9-7.1 (12th)

And now a very special preview of the 2012 Giants from Super Bowl-winning coach and current ESPN announcer Jon Gruden. Take it away, Coach Gruden!

Well, now. This right here’s a team I can get VERY EXCITED about. *chuckles* These NEW YORK GIANTS are the defending SUPER BOWL champions and I couldn’t be happier for ’em. The thing I was most struck by watching their RUN TO HISTORY last postseason was how they did it entirely their own way. They got off to a strong start, as they have been wont to do under Tom Coughlin, won six of their first eight contests, and basically said to the rest of the league, “WATCH OUT, NFL. THESE GUYS KNOW WHAT THEY’RE DOIN’.” Then, as has also been their strategy during Tom’s time as head coach, they decided to pack it in a little bit in the second half and come PERILOUSLY CLOSE to missing the postseason. Now most coaches in the NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE prioritize things a little differently than Mr. Coughlin here. Just speaking strictly from personal experience, it was always my plan to win EVERY GAME – whether it be the first half of the season or second half or fourteenth quadrangle or some other unit of math I’m not as familiar with. But Tom has always been a thinker. And his philosophy has always been, “Let’s do our work here, men, in the first half of the season, then rest up and go with some vanilla game plans in the second half.”  And two times in the last five years, that strategy has delivered SWEET, SWEET VICTORY  for these NEW YORK GIANTS. I think you’re gonna see a lot of teams try this plan in the next few years. And it’s all because of the forward thinking of MY GUY Tom Coughlin and his NEW YORK GIANTS.

You know, all this talk about the Super Bowl and the success the Giants had last year has had me reminiscing about THOSE BLISSFUL TIMES when I won my Super Bowl ring as head coach of those Buccaneers they have down in Tampa there. I was a BONA FIDE OFFENSIVE GENIUS escaping from the murky lair of Al Davis’ haunted spirit and bringing peace and prosperity back to a Tampa Bay offense that was in SORE NEED OF SUCH PROPERTIES. But before I could do that…I had to win THESE GUYS’ respect. And the only way I could do that was by winning the respect of their leader, MY GUY Mr. Warren Sapp. So early on in my first training camp, I see Warren in the locker room toweling off after a hard practice, chatting with Booger McFarland about the relative merits of Mr. Justin Guarini. Now, if you remember correctly, Warren was a rather large man who could penetrate through the B gap of an offensive line like MY GUY Hernan Cortes could penetrate the INTERIOR OF THE AZTEC EMPIRE. But to fully become THESE GUYS’ LEADER, I would have to try to physically overpower Mr. Sapp. So I shout at Warren from across the locker room, I think something along the lines of “Hey Sapp, your keester is so fat it could seat a family of six!”, and bum rush him and try and get him on his can. Was I successful? In the most literal sense, I was not. I ended up separating a shoulder and getting flipped upside down in such a way that caused my face to get MUCH CLOSER to Warren’s scrotum than I had PREVIOUSLY PLANNED. But ultimately I had made my point. THOSE GUYS saw in that short-lived fight what JON DAVID GRUDEN was all about: heart, determination, six-yard slants, and RESILIENCE in the face of SCROTUMS. *tears up slightly, gets faraway look* I still consider that one of the FINEST MOMENTS OF MY FOOTBALL CAREER.

But getting back to THESE GUYS, the New York Giants. When I look at their PRO BOWL QUARTERBACK Eli Manning, I see a guy who is FEARLESS out there on that field. I know his brother Peyton’s got quite the resume himself, but did you know that Eli’s got TWO Super Bowl rings to Peyton’s ONE? Now I’m no ALEXANDRE GROTHENDIECK here, but even I can tell that that’s TWICE as many as his brother. *chuckles heartily* I tell ya, that reminds me of a warm summer afternoon I was spending giving my younger brother Jay a swirly in our toilet. I was having a GAY OLD TIME dipping Jay’s face far enough inside the john so that he could taste it when I noticed some impressive jewelry adorning Jay’s hands while they were writhing around on the bathroom floor. I asked Jay, “Hey, Jay, which Kay Jewelers did you knock off to get all these rings?” I couldn’t make out his response, mostly because his mouth was gargling in the toilet, but upon further inspection I was TAKEN ABACK. They were the SIX ARENA BOWL championship rings that my brother had won while playing that Arenaball they play there in those convocation centers. Now I know that Arenaball is only one step up from playing pickup games on the street with some homeless amputees, but I still found myself GREATLY IMPRESSED with what my little brother had accomplished. From that day forward, I resolved that I would show my brother A LITTLE MORE RESPECT and stop shoving his head in the Thunder Box so much. And I’m proud to say that, in the eight weeks since that resolution, I have refrained from giving Jay A SINGLE SWIRLY. *smirks, raises right hand* What can I say? Mid-Year’s Resolutions have bettered MANY A LIFE.

So do you hear that, Peyton? Show your little brother, Eli, a little more gosh-darn respect and stop sticking his head in the toilet so much. Your brother is a TWO-TIME SUPER BOWL CHAMPION. And I tell ya, he could do it a THIRD time this year. These NEW YORK GIANTS have all the pieces in place: a franchise quarterback with IMPECCABLE BLOODLINES, a fearsome pass rush that would make SAMMY BAUGH HIMSELF SOIL HIS PANTS IN AGONY, and an OUTSTANDING receiving core led by a guy named VICTOR CRUZ. Did you guys know that THIS GUY likes to do a little Salsa dance after he scores a touchdown? *chuckles heartily* I tell ya, that reminds me of the time Andy Reid and I went to a Couples dance class as a result of losing a bet with Dick Jauron…*holds up line at post office for another forty-five minutes explaining story*…

Random thoughts

Like their 2007 iteration that rode an even more suprising postseason run to a Super Bowl title, the 2011 Giants probably should go down as one of the worst teams ever to win the Super Bowl. They’re the only Super Bowl champion that failed to reach double-digit wins or post a positive point differential during the season. If we were to take the time to rank all 46 Super Bowl winners, I would have to think that the Giants would be one of the teams down in the #40’s. But of course, it’s always much, much better to go down as one of the worst Super Bowl winners ever than one of the best Super Bowl losers…The Giants offseason featured two more critical injuries than they would have preferred. Star receiver Hakeem Nicks broke his foot at OTAs in May, but was taken off the Physically Unable to Perform list on August 13th and should be 100% for the regular season. It’s unclear whether the same can be said for cornerback Terrell Thomas, who injured the same ACL he’s torn twice; thankfully for the Giants, this injury doesn’t appear to be another tear…A large reason why the Giants have swooned in the second half of recent seasons is the ridiculous backloading of their schedules. Last year, for example, they had a stretch starting with a game at New England Nov. 6 running through the end of the season in which they faced only one team with a losing record and their opponents’ combined record was 91-53….

Outlook

The Giants figure to follow up their second Super Bowl in five years with another strong season. Eli Manning has turned into one of the top ten quarterbacks in the league over the past three years and this year’s edition of the Giants’ offense should safely fall somewhere in the top quarter of the league. The Giants’ defense was also much better according to advanced metrics last year than conventional wisdom had them pegged; after factoring in strength of schedule, the defense was actually above-average and, with improved health in the secondary, they should be closer to the really good unit that appeared in 2010. The schedule this year is once again one of the most brutal in the league and the Giants have to figure out a way to beat Philadelphia (they’ve lost seven of their last nine meetings) if they’re going to repeat as NFC East champs. But this is a team that can both pass and defend the pass very well and those qualities will have the Giants in the postseason mix once again in 2012.

2012 Projected Point Differential: 417.8-351.2

2012 Average Projection: 9.6-6.4 (2nd in NFC East)

2012 Team Previews: New Orleans Saints

New Orleans Saints

  • 2011 Record: 13-3 (1st in NFC South, lost NFC Divisional Round to San Francisco)
  • 2011 Point Differential: +208 (1st out of 32)
  • 2011 Strength of Schedule (per PFR’s SRS system): -1.6 (31st)
  • 2011 Adjusted Net Yards per Pass Attempt (offense): 8.2 (3rd)
  • 2011 Adjusted Net Yards per Pass Attempt (defense): 6.4 (t-24th)
  • 2011 Adjusted Pythagorean Record (accounting for Strength of Schedule): 11.7-4.3 (1st)
  • 2010 Adjusted Pythagorean Record: 9.0-7.0 (11th)

And now a story I call…Rog the Bounty Hunter

The following is a transcript of the NFL Network show “Rog the Bounty Hunter,” which first aired March 21, 2012. This transcript is reprinted without the expressed written consent of the NFL. Oops.

Rog (talking head): Today, our target fugitives are the New Orleans Saints. They do have a record of having a crazy defensive coordinator and fans who get a bit too excited about jambalaya. I sense an opportunity for ginger justice.

Rog drives around the French Quarter, avoiding eye contact with black people.

Rog (while driving): We’re hunting with heavy hearts today, as we just learned this morning from Jerry [Jones, Dallas owner] that the Cowboys only made $153 million in profit last year; that’s approximately three percent below expectation. You know, Jerry’s used to always meeting financial expectations, so it’s something he’s never been through before. But, you know, no matter what happens in our lives, we still have to hunt, no matter if we only make $153 million or not.

Rog calls investigator Joe Hummel while driving.

Rog: All right, Jeff, what have we got?

Joe: Well, Rog, it looks like these guys have had this bounty system in place ever since Gregg Williams took the defensive coordinator position before the 2009 season. Both the Cardinals and Vikings complained about the hits they were taking from the Saints during the playoffs that year; remember how they knocked Kurt Warner into early retirement and almost killed our beloved Brett Favre?

Rog (tears slowly running down his cheek): Like it was yesterday, Joe…

Joe: Well, that’s not all. We’ve been learning over the past couple days that they’ve continued their bounty system, even though we’ve politely asked them to stop. They apparently put out bounties on Matt Hasselbeck in their 2010 playoff game and Aaron Rodgers in last year’s season opening-game; we even have an e-mail from (Saints coach Sean) Payton asking if he can put money on knocking out Rodgers. Of course, since they gave up a combined 83 points in those two games, obviously those incentives didn’t really, uh, work out for them too well…

Rog (pounds fist on steering wheel): But it’s the intent, Joe! It’s the intent that matters!

Joe: I can see your point, Rog. And, perhaps most disturbingly, we got a handle on some audio from their playoff game just a few months ago against the 49ers where Williams tells his players rather graphically to knock out Alex Smith. And he says something to the effect of “Kill the head and the body will die.” Something like that.

Rog (face becomes as red as hair): The fact that someone would have the audacity…to want to hit a quarterback…in my sport…

Joe: So, uh, as you can see, Rog, we’ve got some pretty clear evidence here against these Saints that they were maintaining a bounty program these last three years. Of course, we’ve also had many informal claims stating that there are many teams around the league that are doing the same thing. Do you want me to investigate all of those as well?

Rog (shakes head dismissively, even though it’s a phone call and Joe can’t actually see him): Joe, you’ve been in our business for a while now, you understand that actual justice isn’t the important thing when dealing with this sort of insubordination. What we want is the appearance of justice, so we can point these things out to Peter King and our buddies in the media and say, “Look at all we’re doing for player safety! These sorts of things will not be tolerated in our NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE!” And then nothing has to actually change and we can go on printing money.

Joe: Well, frankly, Rog, I don’t know if I like the sounds of that, I don’t know if it’s fair to make an example out of these Saints when this thing looks like it’s fairly widespread…

Rog (eyes grow wide): Fairness is nothing! Hegemony is everything! Thanks for your work, Joe, I suggest you accept a senior security position at a large company. I’ve had just about enough of your lip…oh crap, gotta go, almost made eye contact with a homeless guy…[click]

Rog arrives at the Saints headquarters in Metairie, Louisiana and strolls into head coach Sean Payton’s office.

Payton (looking up from game film): Oh hey, Rog, this is a great surprise. To what do I owe the honor of your presence?

Rog (eyes narrow, focuses on maintaining stiff upper lip): Give up the nice guy charade, Sean. It’s over. You know what you’ve done.

Payton (raises hands in attempt to placate Rog): Look, Rog, I’m aware we could have done better in stamping out the bounties, but–

Rog (gives confused look): Bounties? This isn’t about the bounties. If you guys had complied with my orders the first time I asked you to end them, I wouldn’t have done anything. America loves your team, your quarterback, and your fans’ down-home distaste for proper grammar and food that hasn’t originated along the Gulf Coast region. But you’ve done something far worse than providing incentives to intentionally injure opposing players. You’ve lied to me. ME! DON’T YOU KNOW WHO I AM? I AM ROGER F’ING GOODELL! I CAN TEAR YOU FROM LIMB TO LIMB! Legally, of course, not physically.

Payton (pleading look): Please, Rog, I’m sorry for what we’ve done, I only ask for a little lenience…

Rog (crazed look): It’s too late for lenience. You threw away that chance when you decided to mess with the Rog. Well, I’ll tell you something right now, Sean: you are messing with the wrong ginger! You’re suspended for the entire year. I’ll get around to decimating your defense in a few weeks.

Rog strolls out of the Saints headquarters with a smug, satisfied look on his face.

Rog: Well, that’s the hard part of the job, but someone’s got to be willing to stand up for the interests of the National Football League. And by that, I mean the interests of the National Football League owners. I’m looking forward to my hunt next week, when I attempt to track down every single person in America who’s opposed to the 18-game schedule that’s coming in 2015 and tell them why it’ll actually improve player safety and be something they actually want…

Random thoughts

Let’s try to come up with a section on the Saints that doesn’t have anything to do with the Bounty scandal. It’ll be hard, but we’re gonna give it our best shot. Here goes…Drew Brees may have had the first holdout in professional sports history in which the player, not the team, was unanimously supported. Why the Saints chose to play hardball with a guy who just broke the single-season passing yardage record, has been playing at a Hall-of-Fame level for the past six seasons, and is only the most popular player in team history is mind-boggling (particularly since they ended up breaking down and giving Brees the largest guaranteed contract in NFL history, anyway)…The two biggest reasons why the Saints’ offense returned to all-world status last year were Jimmy Graham and Darren Sproles. Sproles played the poor man’s Lenny Moore role as well as anyone since Lenny Moore and Graham became impossible to cover in his second season…The Saints’ biggest problem defensively last year was a lack of pass rush. When Roman Harper leads your team in sacks, you may need an upgrade on the defensive line. Outside of free agent defensive tackle Broderick Bunkley, however, the Saints didn’t make any notable additions to their front four and are hoping that new defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo will simply coax greater results out of their current group…

Outlook

Well, what happens after you have the worst offseason in NFL history? We’re about to find out. Steve Spagnuolo is an upgrade at defensive coordinator over Gregg Williams, but the NFL is the major sports league in which coaching matters the most and I’m almost positive losing one of the three best coaches in the league is a major loss. Call me crazy. In addition to not having Sean Payton the entire year, the Saints haven’t even decided yet who will coach the team when interim coach Joe Vitt is suspended for the first six games. We often overrate the impact off-field turmoil can wreak on a team, but with so much uncertainty and poor planning regarding chain-of-command, how can this not have a big impact on the Saints? Factor in a defense potentially ripe for a complete breakdown with all the suspensions, likely regression towards the mean offensively, and a very tough schedule and it will be an extremely hard road for the Saints this year. On the other hand, they have Drew Brees. So…who knows?

2012 Projected Point Differential: 429.8-411.5

2012 Average Projection: 8.4-7.6 (t-1st in NFC South)