Tag Archives: NFL Week 9

Week 9 Power Rankings: It Takes More Than a Bullet to Kill a Bull Moose

Welcome to the Week 9 edition of Someone Still Loves You Alberto Riveron’s weekly NFL power rankings. To help us make sense of what happened during this last batch of NFL action, we’ve asked the 26th President of the United States, Theodore Roosevelt, to share his thoughts with us below. Please enjoy.

By jove, my good men, is this a wonderful day to be alive! Do your Uncle Teddy a good favor and gaze upon the photograph you see above this text. See what a wonderful humor I am in at that time? Many of you no doubt think that this good humor and disposition is perhaps the result of good fortune that I had received over the course of that day or the wellspring of joy that is my dear wife Edith, causing my entire countenance to overflow with elation or perhaps even the result of hearing a particularly funny joke from the cameraman moments before the photograph was taken. But you’d all be wrong. You see, this picture was taken while I was on safari in Africa. And outside the restrictive frames of that photograph, I am actually in the midst of bare-knuckle boxing a wildebeest of immense stature. Ah, you did not anticipate that revelation, now did you?! The lesson, my dear chums, is that you may encounter many formidable foes in your life – whether they be poverty, illness, or a gargantuan wildebeest. But whatever your enemy may be, you must face it with a stiff upper lip, a cheerful disposition, and a strong right hook to the kidneys! Carry those three things with you, my lads, and you’ll go far!

My dear crumberbuns, I often think of this philosophy of life when I watch our strong, rugged young men of America perform on the football field today. These lads have all the physical attributes and regimented training to make a profound difference in their sporting contests. Too often, however, I find these gifts to be squandered in favor of weak-willed, namby-pamby dilly-dallying that skirts around the main issue that the two sides are determined to resolve: who will take the ball and return it to its rightful home in the end zone? I watch the coach of the Philadelphia squad, A. Reid, and though I admire his devotion to well-groomed moustaches, I think to myself, “My! There’s a man who could use a firm slap across the face!” This Philadelphia outfit will get the ball within five yards of the end zone and then rely on trickery, deception, and misdirection to advance the ball further. But that does not work so close to the goal, my fellow rough riders! To punch the ball into the end zone, you must have courage! You must have temerity! You must have the aid of a noble steed to clear the path! This Philadelphia outfit lacks these things and you cannot hope to be successful in any walk of life without them.

Finally, my rugged progressives, on this Election Day I am often asked which candidate I would throw my allegiances behind were I still alive and registered to vote. Would I vote for the incumbent, B. Obama, who has made many efforts in good faith to alleviate many of America’s ailments? Or would I side with the challenger, M. Romney, who is the candidate for the party I was associated with in my presidency? And the answer, of course, is neither! There is only one candidate who embodies all the qualities that Colonel Roosevelt finds necessary in a president – and that man is Colonel Roosevelt! I voted for myself in every presidential election I ever participated in; by jove, I robustly walked 3,000 miles across the country in a week and a half in 1916 to start a write-in campaign for myself. That campaign ultimately failed, of course, but the lessons I learned were timeless. Help your fellow man in his time of need! A fit body leads to a fit mind! Beware of vigorously slapping a mother grizzly bear on the backside! No matter who ends up carrying the election today, my lads, if America remembers these values and treasures them for the remainder of its days, we shall remain the greatest country in the world and continue to portray a shining beacon of light for the Germans and Irishmen to follow. Heaven knows they need it…

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A quick thought on Monday Night’s game…

New Orleans 28, Philadelphia 13
Adjusted Yards per Play: 6.13 – New Orleans, 4.83 – Philadelphia
AY/P Projected Point Totals: New Orleans 23.64, Philadelphia 26.57

Quick Thought: As a Bears fan, watching the Eagles’ titanic struggles in the red zone this year has given me ‘Nam-like flashbacks to Chicago’s 2009 season – when Jay Cutler seemed to think he was SUPPOSED TO throw that shovel pass to the defensive tackle and the Bears squandered, by my count, 347 points in the red zone that year (NOTE: stat is unofficial and may be completely incorrect). The common thread between both teams: athletic, strong-armed quarterbacks who aren’t good at reading defenses or consistently making stick throws in tight windows coupled with TERRIBAD offensive lines who don’t even have the decency to yell “LOOK OUT” as they’re getting beat. Ah, that was SUCH a fun season. Why did I even bring that up? Time to pretend that never happened and go back to watching Peanut Tillman punch balls out on a loop…

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Here’s SSLYAR’s Week 9 rankings by Adjusted Yards per Play Differential, which is a descriptive metric that is designed to give an accurate representation of how each team has played thus far. The idle 49ers remain #1 for the second week in a row and third week overall; the Bears leapfrog the Texans into the #2 slot after another absurd defensive effort. San Diego is the biggest riser of the week, going from #16 to #25 (remember, this metric doesn’t know they played the Chiefs last week); Oakland tumbles from #16 to #26 as a result of Doug Martin’s exploits against them Sunday.

Adjusted Yards per Play Differential (league average: 0.00)

  1. San Francisco: 2.39 (last week: 1, high–>low: 1–>11)
  2. Chicago: 1.97 (last week: 3, high–>low: 1–>14)
  3. Houston: 1.87 (last week: 2, high–>low: 1–>5)
  4. New England: 1.43 (last week: 5, high–>low: 3–>8)
  5. NY Giants: 1.22 (last week: 4, high–>low: 4–>26)
  6. Atlanta: 1.17 (last week: 6, high–>low: 1–>6)
  7. Denver: 1.15 (last week: 7, high–>low: 7–>19)
  8. Tampa Bay: 1.12 (last week: 11, high–>low: 8–>29)
  9. Baltimore: 1.03 (last week: 9, high–>low: 1–>9)
  10. Pittsburgh: 0.91 (last week: 8, high–>low: 8–>24)
  11. Green Bay: 0.77 (last week: 10, high–>low: 8–>22)
  12. Detroit: 0.62 (last week: 13, high–>low: 11–>22)
  13. Seattle: 0.33 (last week: 14, high–>low: 11–>19)
  14. Carolina: 0.14 (last week: 17, high–>low: 9–>23)
  15. Washington: 0.12 (last week: 12, high–>low: 5–>15)
  16. San Diego: -0.14 (last week: 25, high–>low: 7–>25)
  17. Minnesota: -0.21 (last week: 15, high–>low: 7–>17)
  18. Miami: -0.31 (last week: 18, high–>low: 18–>31)
  19. Cincinnati: -0.47 (last week: 21, high–>low: 16–>32)
  20. Arizona: -0.47 (last week: 19, high–>low: 10–>20)
  21. Cleveland: -0.57 (last week: 20, high–>low: 20–>27)
  22. New Orleans: -0.59 (last week: 26, high–>low: 20–>29)
  23. Dallas: -0.57 (last week: 22, high–>low: 7–>23)
  24. NY Jets: -0.60 (last week: 23, high–>low: 12–>30)
  25. St. Louis: -0.61 (last week: 24, high–>low: 16–>28)
  26. Oakland: -0.63 (last week: 16, high–>low: 16–>27)
  27. Philadelphia: –0.94 (last week: 27, high–>low: 8–>27)
  28. Tennessee: -1.52 (last week: 28, high–>low: 27–>31)
  29. Indianapolis: -1.54 (last week: 31, high–>low: 27–>31)
  30. Buffalo: -1.72 (last week: 29, high–>low: 5–>30)
  31. Jacksonville: -1.91 (last week: 30, high–>low: 23–>31)
  32. Kansas City: -3.23 (last week: 32, high–>low: 30–>32)

Offensive Adjusted Yards per Play (league average: 5.02)

  1. Tampa Bay: 6.44 (last week: 5, high–>low: 1–>29)
  2. New England: 6.12 (last week: 2, high–>low: 2–>12)
  3. San Francisco: 6.09 (last week: 3, high–>low: 1–>12)
  4. Atlanta: 6.04 (last week: 7, high–>low: 2–>9)
  5. Washington: 5.97 (last week: 1, high–>low: 1–>5)
  6. New Orleans: 5.95 (last week: 6, high–>low: 3–>22)
  7. Houston: 5.84 (last week: 11, high–>low: 6–>11)
  8. NY Giants: 5.81 (last week: 4, high–>low: 1–>17)
  9. Baltimore: 5.67 (last week: 8, high–>low: 1–>9)
  10. Green Bay: 5.62 (last week: 10, high–>low: 6–>24)
  11. Pittsburgh: 5.54 (last week: 9, high–>low: 9–>24)
  12. Denver: 5.57 (last week: 12, high–>low: 10–>23)
  13. Detroit: 5.42 (last week: 13, high–>low: 9–>18)
  14. Carolina: 5.02 (last week: 19, high–>low: 4–>19)
  15. Oakland: 4.97 (last week: 15, high–>low: 10–>23)
  16. Cincinnati: 4.92 (last week: 16, high–>low: 7–>25)
  17. Indianapolis: 4.92 (last week: 22, high–>low: 17–>28)
  18. Buffalo: 4.76 (last week: 17, high–>low: 5–>20)
  19. Chicago: 4.75 (last week: 21, high–>low: 6–>30)
  20. Tennessee: 4.73 (last week: 14, high–>low: 14–>27)
  21. St. Louis: 4.71 (last week: 18, high–>low: 13–>28)
  22. Seattle: 4.69 (last week: 24, high–>low: 22–>30)
  23. Dallas: 4.68 (last week: 25, high–>low: 3–>25)
  24. Minnesota: 4.65 (last week: 20, high–>low: 9–>24)
  25. Miami: 4.63 (last week: 26, high–>low: 19–>31)
  26. Cleveland: 4.36 (last week: 23, high–>low: 23–>32)
  27. San Diego: 4.23 (last week: 28, high–>low: 9–>28)
  28. NY Jets: 4.17 (last week: 27, high–>low: 8–>32)
  29. Philadelphia: 4.14 (last week: 29, high–>low: 26–>32)
  30. Arizona: 3.82 (last week: 30, high–>low: 26–>32)
  31. Jacksonville: 3.69 (last week: 31, high–>low: 16–>31)
  32. Kansas City: 3.07 (last week: 32, high–>low: 20–>32)

Defensive Adjusted Yards per Play (league average: 4.98)

  1. Chicago: 2.78 (last week: 1, high–>low: 1–>5)
  2. San Francisco: 3.69 (last week: 2, high–>low: 2–>20)
  3. Houston: 3.98 (last week: 3, high–>low: 1–>5)
  4. Arizona: 4.29 (last week: 4, high–>low: 2–>5)
  5. Seattle: 4.37 (last week: 6, high–>low: 4–>7)
  6. San Diego: 4.37 (last week: 12, high–>low: 6–>17)
  7. Denver: 4.43 (last week: 5, high–>low: 5–>20)
  8. NY Giants: 4.60 (last week: 9, high–>low: 8–>30)
  9. Pittsburgh: 4.63 (last week: 14, high–>low: 9–>23)
  10. Baltimore: 4.64 (last week: 15, high–>low: 7–>16)
  11. New England: 4.69 (last week: 11, high–>low: 3–>14)
  12. NY Jets: 4.78 (last week: 13, high–>low: 12–>21)
  13. Detroit: 4.81 (last week: 20, high–>low: 12–>23)
  14. Minnesota: 4.85 (last week: 10, high–>low: 6–>14)
  15. Green Bay: 4.85 (last week: 19, high–>low: 7–>28)
  16. Atlanta: 4.87 (last week: 7, high–>low: 3–>16)
  17. Carolina: 4.88 (last week: 18, high–>low: 12–>26)
  18. Cleveland: 4.92 (last week: 16, high–>low: 4–>21)
  19. Miami: 4.94 (last week: 8, high–>low: 8–>23)
  20. Philadelphia: 5.08 (last week: 21, high–>low: 1–>21)
  21. Dallas: 5.25 (last week: 17, high–>low: 7–>22)
  22. Tampa Bay: 5.32 (last week: 25, high–>low: 15–>26)
  23. St. Louis: 5.32 (last week: 23, high–>low: 8–>23)
  24. Cincinnati: 5.39 (last week: 26, high–>low: 21–>32)
  25. Jacksonville: 5.60 (last week: 24, high–>low: 24–>27)
  26. Oakland: 5.60 (last week: 22, Week 1: 19–>31)
  27. Washington: 5.85 (last week: 27, high–>low: 11–>27)
  28. Tennessee: 6.25 (last week: 28, Week 1: 26–>30)
  29. Kansas City: 6.31 (last week: 29, Week 1: 27–>32)
  30. Indianapolis: 6.46 (last week: 30, high–>low: 24–>31)
  31. Buffalo: 6.48 (last week: 31, high–>low: 12–>32)
  32. New Orleans: 6.54 (last week: 32, Week 1: 28–>32)

SSLYAR also ranks teams according to Predictive Yards per Play Differential, a metric which doesn’t give as large a penalty or bonus to turnovers or touchdowns, will also take into account strength of schedule and will (theoretically) better able to predict future performance. This metric uses probabilities drawn from research Brian Burke did back in 2008 in trying to determine which stats best correlated with future play. For example, because offensive performance is much more consistent from week-to-week than defensive performance, offensive play is more highly prioritized in these rankings.

As they have been every week except the initial ranking, San Francisco is #1 in this metric as well; Denver’s rating slides back a little bit from last week’s high, but they remain the clear-cut #2 team after Week 9. Carolina and Dallas continue to rank much, MUCH higher than most other power polls would have them; that’s mainly a function of the very tough schedules both teams have played. Dallas, in particular, had a suicidal first-half schedule; the opponents they’ve played thus far are a combined 44-23. Things look markedly easier for them in the second half, so we’ll see if they put together a run for a wild-card spot. Check back tomorrow for SSLYAR’s second Quarterly Report of the season; it’ll have updated win projections for each team and offer more predictions (most of which will likely turn out wrong!) about the playoff picture in the second half.

Predictive Yards per Play Differential (league average: 1.006112)

  1. San Francisco: 1.941027 (last week: 1, high–>low: 1–>3)
  2. Denver: 1.811667 (last week: 2, high–>low: 2–>6)
  3. NY Giants: 1.476963 (last week: 3, high–>low: 3–>11)
  4. Green Bay: 1.476363 (last week: 5, high–>low: 3–>20)
  5. Seattle: 1.454288 (last week: 7, high–>low: 5–>16)
  6. Carolina: 1.452471 (last week: 9, high–>low: 6–>18)
  7. Dallas: 1.417685 (last week: 10, high–>low: 2–>17)
  8. Houston: 1.337549 (last week: 4, high–>low: 2–>12)
  9. New England: 1.336937 (last week: 8, high–>low: 5–>13)
  10. Detroit: 1.336495 (last week: 6, high–>low: 5–>10)
  11. Baltimore: 1.196628 (last week: 11, high–>low: 1–>12)
  12. Chicago: 1.138888 (last week: 12, high–>low: 2–>12)
  13. Tampa Bay: 1.115096 (last week: 17, high–>low: 13–>30)
  14. Pittsburgh: 1.109928 (last week: 15, high–>low: 14–>24)
  15. Atlanta: 1.093507 (last week: 14, high–>low: 4–>20)
  16. St. Louis: 1.069316 (last week: 16, high–>low: 11–>28)
  17. Washington: 1.046092 (last week: 13, high–>low: 10–>18)
  18. Minnesota: 0.989292 (last week: 18, high–>low: 9–>18)
  19. NY Jets: 0.89165 (last week: 22, high–>low: 19–>32)
  20. New Orleans: 0.890496 (last week: 23, high–>low: 19–>23)
  21. Cincinnati: 0.847491 (last week: 24, high–>low: 8–>24)
  22. Philadelphia: 0.847335 (last week: 19, high–>low: 10–>22)
  23. Miami: 0.80885 (last week: 21, high–>low: 11–>23)
  24. Oakland: 0.734472 (last week: 20, high–>low: 19–>26)
  25. Tennessee: 0.721305 (last week: 26, high–>low: 21–>26)
  26. Arizona: 0.705629 (last week: 25, high–>low: 23–>26)
  27. Buffalo: 0.688236 (last week: 27, high–>low: 14–>27)
  28. Indianapolis: 0.571256 (last week: 28, high–>low: 17–>28)
  29. Cleveland: 0.315812 (last week: 29, high–>low: 28–>29)
  30. San Diego: 0.294464 (last week: 30, high–>low: 22–>30)
  31. Jacksonville: 0.189718 (last week: 31, high–>low: 31–>32)
  32. Kansas City: -0.08568 (last week: 32, high–>low: 27–>32)

Offensive Predictive Yards per Play (league average: 2.879562)

  1. NY Giants: 3.514398 (last week: 1, high–>low: 1–>2)
  2. Green Bay: 3.32713 (last week: 7, high–>low: 2–>22)
  3. San Francisco: 3.324783 (last week: 2, high–>low: 2–>13)
  4. Detroit: 3.28693 (last week: 4, high–>low: 4–>11)
  5. Denver: 3.272517 (last week: 3, high–>low: 3–>12)
  6. New England: 3.239807 (last week: 5, high–>low: 5–>9)
  7. New Orleans: 3.218003 (last week: 6, high–>: 5–>11)
  8. Washington: 3.181261 (last week: 8, high–>low: 2–>8)
  9. Atlanta: 3.160188 (last week: 10, high–>low: 4–>16)
  10. Tampa Bay: 3.151854 (last week: 11, high–>low: 10–>26)
  11. Dallas: 3.126219 (last week: 15, high–>low: 5–>20)
  12. Baltimore: 3.108675 (last week: 9, high–>low: 1–>12)
  13. Carolina: 3.090096 (last week: 13, high–>low: 7–>17)
  14. Buffalo: 3.024549 (last week: 14, high–>low: 9–>15)
  15. Seattle: 3.019409 (last week: 17, high–>low: 15–>25)
  16. Cincinnati: 2.929392 (last week: 16, high–>low: 6–>20)
  17. St. Louis: 2.904286 (last week: 18, high–>low: 14–>28)
  18. Houston: 2.887486 (last week: 12, high–>low: 10–>18)
  19. Oakland: 2.883817 (last week: 19, high–>low: 12–>19)
  20. Tennessee: 2.830472 (last week: 22, high–>low: 14–>24)
  21. Indianapolis: 2.807021 (last week: 24, high–>low: 11–>24)
  22. Minnesota: 2.785771 (last week: 21, high–>low: 21–>25)
  23. NY Jets: 2.683501 (last week: 25, high–>low: 23–>31)
  24. Chicago: 2.645767 (last week: 23, high–>low: 10–>24)
  25. Pittsburgh: 2.645087 (last week: 20, high–>low: 17–>25)
  26. Miami: 2.623112 (last week: 27, high–>low: 16–>27)
  27. Philadelphia: 2.577635 (last week: 26, high–>low: 19–>27)
  28. Arizona: 2.396151 (last week: 28, high–>low: 27–>32)
  29. Cleveland: 2.191578 (last week: 29, high–>low: 27–>29)
  30. Kansas City: 2.1065 (last week: 30, high–>low: 24–>30)
  31. San Diego: 2.088871 (last week: 31, high–>low: 27–>31)
  32. Jacksonville: 2.069024 (last week: 32, high–>low: 30–>32)

Defensive Predictive Yards per Play (league average: 1.873449)

  1. San Francisco: 1.383756 (last week: 1, high–>low: 1–>1)
  2. Denver: 1.46085 (last week: 2, high–>low: 2–>11)
  3. Chicago: 1.506879 (last week: 3, high–>low: 2–>5)
  4. Pittsburgh: 1.535159 (last week: 10, high–>low: 4–>20)
  5. Houston: 1.549937 (last week: 5, high–>low: 3–>11)
  6. Seattle: 1.565122 (last week: 4, high–>low: 2–>6)
  7. Carolina: 1.637625 (last week: 7, high–>low: 7–>25)
  8. Arizona: 1.690522 (last week: 9, high–>low: 6–>10)
  9. Dallas: 1.708534 (last week: 6, high–>low: 6–>14)
  10. Philadelphia: 1.730301 (last week: 11, high–>low: 5–>11)
  11. NY Jets: 1.79185 (last week: 13, high–>low: 11–>21)
  12. San Diego: 1.794406 (last week: 14, high–>low: 10–>17)
  13. Minnesota: 1.796479 (last week: 12, high–>low: 3–>13)
  14. Miami: 1.814262 (last week: 8, high–>low: 8–>14)
  15. St. Louis: 1.83497 (last week: 17, high–>low: 8–>18)
  16. Green Bay: 1.850768 (last week: 15, high–>low: 10–>17)
  17. Cleveland: 1.875766 (last week: 19, high–>low: 15–>22)
  18. Jacksonville: 1.879305 (last week: 16. high–>low: 16–>24)
  19. New England: 1.90287 (last week: 21, high–>low: 16–>21)
  20. Baltimore: 1.912047 (last week: 18, high–>low: 12–>20)
  21. Detroit: 1.950435 (last week: 20, high–>low: 10–>21)
  22. Tampa Bay: 2.036758 (last week: 24, high–>low: 19–>27)
  23. NY Giants: 2.037434 (last week: 25, high–>low: 23–>32)
  24. Atlanta: 2.066681 (last week: 22, high–>low: 14–>24)
  25. Cincinnati: 2.081902 (last week: 28, high–>low: 21–>28)
  26. Tennessee: 2.109168 (last week: 27, high–>low: 25–>27)
  27. Washington: 2.135169 (last week: 26, high–>low: 26–>32)
  28. Oakland: 2.149345 (last week: 23, high–>low: 23–>29)
  29. Kansas City: 2.192175 (last week: 29, high–>low: 22–>30)
  30. Indianapolis: 2.235764 (last week: 30, high–>low: 24–>30)
  31. New Orleans: 2.327507 (last week: 32, high–>low: 30–>32)
  32. Buffalo: 2.336313 (last week: 31, high–>low: 23–>32)

Week 9 Quick Thoughts

Scattered stats and thoughts regarding Week 9 of the 2012 NFL Season…

Pittsburgh 24, NY Giants 20
Adjusted Yards per Play: 4.55 – Pittsburgh, 3.27 – NY Giants
AY/P Projected Point Totals: Pittsburgh 22.43, NY Giants 11.21
Quick Thoughts:
1. I guess the obvious question we should be asking first is this: what in the world is Eli looking at in the above picture that is making his eyes bug out so? He’s been sacked plenty of times before, so it can’t be surprise that he’s being hit. Did Tom Coughlin momentarily disrobe on the sideline directly in front of him? If so, then I can’t blame Eli’s look of sheer terror – not even Mrs. Coughlin would want to see that anymore, I don’t think. What if LaMarr Woodley was telling him that Santa Claus and the Easter Bunny don’t exist anymore? If that’s the case, Eli’s not going to get as much as slack from this writer. According to this 2006 poll, the average American child stops believing in Santa at age eight and only fifteen percent of those surveyed believed past age ten. Wouldn’t it be quintessential Eli if he was JUST NOW learning that Santa wasn’t real? I’m going to live the rest of my life under the assumption that this is the case. It’ll make all Giants games and Eli commercials approximately 27% more enjoyable, I feel.
2. For those who enjoy proper rule enforcement according to the letter of the law: YES THE STEELERS GOT SCREWED OVER BY THE OFFICIATING IN THE FIRST HALF. I thought Roethlisberger’s quasi-tuck was a fumble, but I’ve seen that play get called an incompletion a ton, too, so that call, at best, inhabited a murky, gray area of the rulebook and human knowledge. What was not murky and gray was JPP’s BLATANT CLIP on Heath Miller at the end of Michael Boley’s fumble return. In addition, Ryan Clark’s big hit on Victor Cruz in the end zone was entirely legal and could only be considered a hit to the head if we, as a society, have decided to call our kidneys the “head” now. On the other hand, why am I defending Pittsburgh? Roethlisberger is a scum-sucking weasel and Ryan Clark would have hit a defenseless player in the head eventually, anyway. Might as well get the penalty out of the way early.

3. Finally, let’s all congratulate the New York media for successfully blowing a close loss to a good team COMPLETELY OUT OF PROPORTION. What’s this? The defending Super Bowl champions who came in with a 6-2 record, a four-game winning streak and a two-game lead in the division lost a game? HIDE THE WOMEN AND CHILDREN, 6-10 IS RIGHT AROUND THE CORNER. Eli may never complete another pass. Time for the David Carr Era to begin. BEFORE IT’S TOO LATE!

Atlanta 19, Dallas 13
Adjusted Yards per Play: 7.51 – Atlanta, 7.35 – Dallas
AY/P Projected Point Totals: Atlanta 33.80, Dallas 28.35

Quick Thought: Jason Garrett is a really bad head coach. I know this isn’t a particularly revelatory or insightful comment, but my goodness. The Cowboys consistently moved the ball up and down the field in the first half via the forward pass; they had 23 yards rushing at halftime. Naturally, the enlightened Princeton graduate Garrett thought of the second half as the perfect time to ESTABLISH THE RUN and take the ball out of Tony Romo’s hands. In related news, the Cowboys did nothing offensively in the second half except for the one drive where they let Tony Romo run the hurry-up offense. In which case, they went the length of the field for a touchdown in six plays. If Jerry Jones were still alive, you can bet he wouldn’t be standing for this.

Denver 31, Cincinnati 23
Adjusted Yards per Play: 5.39 – Denver, 5.01 – Cincinnati
AY/P Projected Point Totals: Denver 23.49, Cincinnati 25.77

Quick Thought: The Broncos play at the Colts next season, so the “Peyton returns to Indianapolis!” storyline will surface no later than 2013, but what if they meet each other in the first round of the playoffs? I’m almost positive said game would get decent ratings. I’m almost positive.

Carolina 21, Washington 13
Adjusted Yards per Play: 7.80 – Carolina, 4.76 – Washington
AY/P Projected Point Totals: Carolina 27.86, Washington 25.50
Quick Thought: One thing that Lucas and I forgot to talk about in our otherwise brilliant Week 9 picks post was the election subplot surrounding the outcome of the Redskins game. I’ll let Lucas’ texts from yesterday afternoon tell the story:
  • LUCAS (12:25 P.M.): Except for 2004, when the Skins lose their last home game before the election, the incumbent loses. Skins win, incumbent gets reelected.
  • LUCAS (12:27 P.M.): RG3/CAM AREN’T JUST PLAYING FOR THEIR FUTURES. THEY’RE PLAYING FOR AMERICA.
  • NATHANIEL (12:31 P.M.): Haha yeah I thought about that after I sent my picks over. What happens if the Skins tie? Electoral college deadlock? LET’S ROOT FOR THIS TO HAPPEN.
  • LUCAS (12:31 P.M.): I LIKE IT!

Sadly, a tie did not occur. Ignore all the other statistical indicators predicting a comfortable victory for you, President Obama: you’re gonna lose the election. THAT’S A FACT.

Seattle 30, Minnesota 20
Adjusted Yards per Play: 6.55 – Seattle, 4.38 – Minnesota
AY/P Projected Point Totals: Seattle 33.22, Minnesota 16.58

Quick Thought: Russell Wilson’s slowly and steadily improved just about every week this season (somewhere in the Los Angeles area, Bill Simmons is shouting, “I told you so!” and then going back to rolling around naked in a swimming pool filled with Larry Bird posters). Christian Ponder’s slowly and steadily descended into dogcrap every week this season. Call it “A Tale of Two Quarterbacks.” POSITIVELY DICKENS-IAN.

Indianapolis 23, Miami 20
Adjusted Yards per Play: 7.41 – Indianapolis, 6.98 – Miami
AY/P Projected Point Totals: Indianapolis 39.70, Miami 28.92

Quick Thought: Unsustainable Stat Alert: The Colts are now 5-1 in one-possession games this season; I trust you can make the appropriately “looks like they’ve got LUCK on their side!” pun for yourself. Meanwhile, I remain pleasantly surprised how non-terrible Ryan Tannehill has looked this season. He has shown himself capable of completing a forward pass AND when you type in “Ryan Tannehill” into Google Images, he now appears in about 50% of the first couple pages of images. SEE LAUREN? PEOPLE LIKE ME TOO NOW KIND OF.

Tampa Bay 42, Oakland 32
Adjusted Yards per Play: 9.29 – Tampa Bay, 4.92 – Oakland
AY/P Projected Point Totals: Tampa Bay 41.81, Oakland 26.36

Quick Thought: If you’re looking for a dark horse Wild-Card candidate in the NFC…well, Tampa Bay’s starting to look like a pretty good choice. Since they came off their bye, their offense has been playing at a level that would cause the ’99 Rams to cry in shame. I’m about 95% certain Doug Martin was literally on fire yesterday. Might be the reason he broke off all those long runs in the second half: how can we expect the Raiders to try to tackle him IF THEY’RE GOING TO GET THIRD-DEGREE BURNS JUST ATTEMPTING IT? Think about that, all you Monday Morning quarterbacks out there, before you pass judgment on that poor defense.

Houston 21, Buffalo 9
Adjusted Yards per Play: 7.12 – Houston, 4.53 – Buffalo
AY/P Projected Point Totals: Houston 31.02, Buffalo 18.44

Quick Thought: Signs Buffalo’s run defense may be turning a corner: Arian Foster rushed for ONLY 111 yards on ONLY 24 carries and ONLY scored one touchdown. That’s just 4.6 yards per carry! Keep this up, Buffalo, and people will start thinking you actually have an NFL-caliber run defense.

Chicago 51, Tennessee 20
Adjusted Yards per Play: 5.97 – Chicago, 2.33 – Tennessee
AY/P Projected Point Totals: Chicago 27.72, Tennessee 9.15

Quick Thought: Look, I have no illusions that he’ll be able to keep this up in the second half and keep pace with J.J. Watt in the Defensive Player of the Year race, but what Peanut Tillman’s done in the first half of this season has been just absolutely amazing. Forced fumbles is a stat that hasn’t been well-tracked in the past, so who knows what the actual record for a single season is, but right now Tillman’s on track to destroy Osi Umenyiora and Dwayne Harper’s listed record of ten. No one is better at punching balls. Well, no one other than Kevin Garnett.

Green Bay 31, Arizona 17
Adjusted Yards per Play: 5.99 – Green Bay, 5.08 – Arizona
AY/P Projected Point Totals: Green Bay 29.95, Arizona 23.95

Quick Thought: Aaron Rodgers’ 60 Minutes interview last night was, for the most part, phenomenally non-enlightening (you would expect nothing less from a Scott Pelley piece), but one of the few things we did learn is that if you want to get on Rodgers’ nerves, just make fun of his height (he’s “only” 6’2″) or say something along the lines of “Wow, I thought you’d be bigger in person.” Apparently, that really gets under his skin and causes him to say wildly inappropriate things such as “I don’t appreciate that.” Food for thought if you ever meet him, Lucas.

Baltimore 25, Cleveland 15
Adjusted Yards per Play: 5.52 – Baltimore, 3.08 – Cleveland
AY/P Projected Point Totals: Baltimore 24.45, Cleveland 14.30
Quick Thought: Another golden texting exchange from Lucas and myself yesterday for your reading pleasure:
  • LUCAS (1:44 P.M.): Pulled up the BAL-CLE game. Brandon Weeden has a funny look on his face. As I sat here trying to find out what it meant he threw a pick. I feel this is significant.
  • NATHANIEL (1:46 P.M.): Was it a look of constipation? I bet it was a look of constipation.
  • LUCAS (1:47 P.M.): I could maybe see it being one of mild constipation. Maybe confusion, maybe misplaced condescension. Hard to say for sure
  • NATHANIEL (1:49 P.M.): Call it constifusionscension. Rolls off the tongue very easily!

There you have it. Yesterday, Brandon Weeden was constifusionscended and threw an interception as a result. THUS ENDS OUR EXPERT ANALYSIS.

Detroit 31, Jacksonville 14
Adjusted Yards per Play: 7.56 – Detroit, 3.88 – Jacksonville
AY/P Projected Point Totals: Detroit 36.72, Jacksonville 16.35

Quick Thought: We all thought it was monumentally stupid for the Jaguars to wear their black jerseys in 87 degree heat against the Bears a month ago. Little did we know at the time (unless you were a devoted Jaguars fan, but I seriously doubt that, no such people actually exist) that they were actually switching to black as their main home jersey for the rest of the season. Thus, Shahid Khan goes down in the record books as the first professional sports owner in history who actively attempted to kill his players via heat stroke. TRULY THIS IS A MODEL FRANCHISE.

2012 NFL Week 9 Preview

Before we get into our Week 9 preview, let’s post a quick recap on last night’s Chiefs-Chargers game…

San Diego 31, Kansas City 13
Adjusted Yards per Play: 7.11 – San Diego, 2.73 – Kansas City
AY/P Projected Point Totals: San Diego 23.87, Kansas City 11.70

Quick Thought: With four more turnovers last night, the Chiefs’ total for the first half of the season rises to an astonishing 29. They’re unlikely to have such terrible fumble luck going forward (they’ve only recovered four of their nineteen offensive fumbles so far), but if they keep this pace up they’ll wind up with a turnover total that only two teams in the last FIFTY YEARS have reached. And they’re doing this at a time in NFL history when turnovers have never been LESS likely to occur. There’s still the second half of the season to be played, but Kansas City’s first half is certainly up there with the worst teams of all time.

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Below are SSLYAR’s Week 8 NFL Projections, ranked by the author’s subjective interest in watching each game. Home teams are italicized; projected winners against the spread are underlined. To see which games are being shown in your area, check out the506′s TV distribution maps. Our guest analyst this week is a magician from Orange County, California: Gob Bluth.

  1. New York Giants 28, Pittsburgh Steelers 21 (in-depth preview here): “Illusion, Michael. A trick is something a whore does for money…or candy!”
  2. Dallas Cowboys 24, Atlanta Falcons 23: “You’re a good guy, mon frère. That means ‘brother’  in French. I don’t know why I know that. I took four years of Spanish!”
  3. Denver Broncos 28, Cincinnati Bengals 20: “Dad asked me to do this on the day he pleads not guilty, as a spectacular protest. A protestacular!”
  4. Washington Redskins 28, Carolina Panthers 27: “Franklin said some things Whitey wasn’t ready to hear…he also said some things that African-American-y wasn’t ready to hear either.”
  5. New Orleans Saints 26, Philadelphia Eagles 24: “I’m looking for something to give my dingle less tingle.”
  6. Seattle Seahawks 19, Minnesota Vikings 13: “Michael, you have a chance to save this family. Please, do the right thing here – string this blind girl along so that Dad doesn’t have to pay his debt to society.”
  7. Miami Dolphins 17, Indianapolis Colts 16: “Oh, now you love the ten commandments, yet you’re the one who so conveniently forgot ‘Thou shalt protect thy father, and honor no one above him, unless it be-eth me, thy sweet Lord.'”
  8. Oakland Raiders 28, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27: “Yeah, the guy wearing the $4,000 suit is holding the elevator for the guy who doesn’t make that in four months. COME ON!”
  9. Houston Texans 31, Buffalo Bills 20: “You didn’t eat that dove, did you? Because I only have a couple of days left to return it.”
  10. Chicago Bears 21, Tennessee Titans 17: “Portugal? Gonna live it up down ol’ South America way, eh, Mikey?”
  11. Green Bay Packers 23, Arizona Cardinals 14: “Don’t you worry. It will take a lot more than a heart attack to kill that old bear. Old bear! He likes the honey.”
  12. Baltimore Ravens 26, Cleveland Browns 20: “First place chick is hot but has an attitude: doesn’t ‘date’ magicians. Second place is someone weird usually, like a Chinese girl… or a geologist.”
  13. Detroit Lions 24, Jacksonville Jaguars 16: “I’ve made a huge mistake.”

2012 Record Thus Far: 75-44 (10-4 last week)

2012 Record Against the Spread: 51-68 (7-7 last week)

Game of the Week: Steelers vs. Giants

A wise man once said, “He who counts out the sleeping giant too early may regret his decision after the giant tears his scrotum apart.” Okay, the wise man was me, but I think the statement still applies here. After a slow start to the season in which they found excruciating ways to lose to Oakland and Tennessee, the Pittsburgh Steelers are now back above .500 and looking more like their old, annoying, Super Bowl-winning selves. Yippee. This Game of the Week profiles their trek into New Jersey to face the Giants.

Who: Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New York Giants

Where: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ

When: 3:25 P.M., Sunday, November 4th

Network: CBS (Jim Nantz, Phil Simms)

Key Storylines:

  1. Oh, the Steelers are good again? HOW HEARTWARMING. I’m not going to try to hide behind any death rays of journalistic objectivity here: I hate the Steelers and I was thrilled during the first month of the season when it looked like Pittsburgh was headed for a .500 season and utter irrelevance in the AFC playoff picture. AND NOW LOOK WHAT’S HAPPENED. The Steeler D shut down Cincinnati and Washington – two pretty high-powered offenses – in back-to-back games and didn’t even have Troy Polamalu in either of them. They won’t have him available against the Giants, either, but sadly it seems like Dick LeBeau’s figured out how to get his defense to kick tail without him. It’s a good thing he has, too, because the Giants come in with the #1 offense in the league, according to SSLYAR’s Predictive Yards per Play metric.
  2. Going out on a limb here, guys, but TURNOVERS WILL BE A MAJOR FACTOR IN THIS GAME’S OUTCOME. This is true of every game, of course, but it’ll be particularly interesting to watch what happens when Pittsburgh’s offense goes up against New York’s defense. These are two units that have had an inordinate amount of their effectiveness spring forth from turnovers (or lack thereof). The Steelers have only turned the ball over six times thus far (tied with the Texans for fewest in the league) and Roethlisberger’s interception rate is currently at an unsustainable 1.1%. On the other side, the Giants have been getting torched to the tune of 6.2 yards per play (tied for third worst in the league) but have survived because of the league-high 24 turnovers that they’ve forced and their unsustainable interception rate of 5.7%. SOMETHING’S GOTTA GIVE.
  3. Can we just take a moment to note how bad Kevin Gilbride’s mustache looked last week?It’s one thing to shave the whole thing off accidentally; it’s quite another to half-assedly regrow it and let it linger like a stale fart on your face. What happened, Kevin? You used to be a man of class and style, a mentor for young mustache aficionados to look up to and learn from. Please, please consider regrowing your nose neighbor in a correct fashion. The number of men who actually pull off a mustache effectively is down in the teens; you are a member of a very select group! FOR TOM SELLECK’S SAKE, DON’T LET EVERYONE DOWN, KEVIN.

Steve Stone’s Said in Stone Cold Lock of the Game: “Say a pitcher faces some particular hitter with two out and nobody on, and he pitches low and in and gets him out.”

Projected Final Score: Giants 28, Steelers 21

Team To Bet On If Gambling Were Legal: Giants (-3.5)

COAS / SSLYAR Pigskin Pick ‘Em: Week 9

As the calendar flips to November, the Confessions of a Sportscaster/Someone Still Loves You Alberto Riveron blog coalition enters its third month of providing NFL picks against the spread for you, our dear reader. Lucas and I both went 7-7 in our picks last week, meaning not only does he still have an eight-game lead on me but I’ve fallen to third in our ESPN Pigskin Pick ‘Em pool behind Mark Murphy – a man who forgot to pick any games in Week 2. NOW THERE’S A CONFIDENCE BOOSTER. Lucas and I disagree on five games this week (not tonight’s Chiefs-Chargers game – we both think Kansas City will somehow cover); in today’s post, we ask Warren Moon to stop talking about race so much, endeavor to toss Pittsburgh’s throwback uniforms from last week into an incinerator, and have a frank discussion about the debilitating effects of diabetic comas.

Lucas’ 2012 Record So Far: 59-59 (7-7 last week)

Nathaniel’s 2012 Record So Far: 51-67 (7-7 last week)