Week 17 Quick Thoughts

Scattered stats and thoughts regarding Week 17 of the 2012 NFL Season…

Washington 28, Dallas 18

Adjusted Yards per Play: 6.57 – Washington, 3.30 – Dallas

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Washington 28.63, Dallas 14.38

Quick Thoughts:

1. This sucker had a weird feel to it for the first three quarters. These two explosive offenses played tight against opposing defenses that have had trouble lately stopping Ryan Seacrest from moving around network to network willy-nilly. Or is that ABC and FOX’s fault? I can’t remember. Anyway, Washington’s slow start was understandable: RGIII is somewhere between 40-60% physically right now and is perpetually stuck in second gear. Dallas’s slow start on the other hand…actually, that was understandable, too, it was Tony Romo in an elimination game. No more explanation needed. Even the refs seemed to be feeling the pressure, not calling any penalties through three quarters and letting Dallas score touchdowns when the play clock had been at zero for longer than Britney Spears’ first marriage and letting DeAngelo Hall molest Dez Bryant on the outside. It felt funky, is what it did.

2. Then the fourth quarter hit and things finally opened up. Alfred Morris did his best to save all of his Offensive Rookie of the Year campaign advertising for one game and drew a standing ovation from that noted master of eloquence Clinton Portis. Dwayne Harris woke the Cowboys up a little with a nifty punt return that gave Romo needed field position in the wake of Dallas’ wide receivers unit turning into a hospital ward. It was even a three-point game with three minutes left and Dallas with a chance for an exceedingly improbable NFC East-clinching drive. Of course, as it had to happen, Romo threw one of those devastating, backbreaking interceptions he’s unfortunately become synonymous with and the Redskins get to see if they can stretch their seven-game winning streak into eight in the playoffs.

3. We’ll talk a lot about Washington later in the week, so let’s get some final thoughts on Dallas’ season down here. The problems facing Botox Jerry’s roster right now are perhaps at their most numerous than in any time in the past decade. Contrary to what you saw last night, the one thing the Cowboys were generally good at this year was throwing the ball: Romo’s the acknowledged master of terrible interceptions but even in possibly his worst season as a starter he’s been an excellent quarterback. The issues are everywhere else: the offensive line has descended into a black hole of crap, DeMarco Murray and Sean Lee are potential superstars when they’re not hurt (this is only an issue because they’re always hurt), their safeties still take horrible routes to the ball, and you’ll find more depth in a Rick Reilly column than at any position other than quarterback on the Dallas roster. Will they be good enough to once again challenge for the NFC East title in 2013? Probably. Is this team close to being a true Super Bowl contender? Not really.

Minnesota 37, Green Bay 34

Adjusted Yards per Play: 7.94 – Minnesota, 7.13 – Green Bay

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Minnesota 37.43, Green Bay 31.07

Quick Thoughts: 

1. Since this game turned out to be one of the best of the year, allow me to expound just a little further on this game at this expense of some of the non-playoff-related contests later on. I know. You’re devastated there won’t be a full column on Oakland-San Diego. I’m with you, buddy.

2. With that out of the way, HOLY CRAP WAS THIS A GOOD GAME. The Packers and Vikings are unnaturally worthy foils for each other because of the Packers’ perennially poor run defense. Even during their Super Bowl run, Green Bay has always had issues stopping the run even when they’ve been great against the pass. Is that a potential issue against Minnesota, a team that somehow averages more yards per play on the ground than through the air? I would say probably so. Hence, if Adrian Peterson looks like Superman against normal defenses, he becomes…Superduperman against the Pack? Give me a break, it’s early. Perhaps even more noteworthy was Christian Ponder’s sudden transformation into a competent NFL quarterback – without that, the Vikings still would have been sunk because the Packers’ passing game finally regained the spirit of ’11 and unleashed a reign of terror on Vikings’ fans psyches over the last three quarters. That last back shoulder throw from Rodgers to Nelson to (briefly) tie the game at 34? OH MY GOODNESS.

3. We would also be remiss if we didn’t note the unintentional comedy duo of Jordy Nelson and Mike McCarthy, who JUST NOW learned that he’s allowed to challenge plays and decided to throw the red flag after a turnover – which, as Jim Schwartz would tell you, ain’t always the best course of action. Nelson’s stealthy pickup of the flag and even-handed explanation of the situation to McCarthy was priceless, as was their hearty chuckle after the problem resolved itself in a manner most agreeable to their interests. Good times! However, as a Bears fan I must point out that I EFFING. HATE. THE PACKERS. Go beat Green Bay by 40 in the first round, Minnesota.

Chicago 26, Detroit 24

Adjusted Yards per Play: 6.31 – Chicago, 3.84 – Detroit

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Chicago 30.65, Detroit 17.28

Quick Thought: My buddy Mark Murphy tends to get WAY DOWN on the Bears whenever something bad happens to them, such as a loss or blowing a 7-1 start and failing to make the playoffs. So his adamant claims that the Bears won’t contend for another five years aren’t particularly surprising. I must admit, however, that I agree with him on wanting Lovie Smith’s ouster. One playoff trip in six seasons ain’t too good.

Indianapolis 28, Houston 16

Adjusted Yards per Play: 5.24 – Indianapolis, 4.70 – Houston

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Indianapolis 23.21, Houston 20.14

Quick Thought: Good for Chuck Pagano. The standing ovation he received from the Lucas Oil Stadium crowd before the opening kickoff was a genuinely inspirational moment, as has been just about everything he’s said over the past three months.

NY Giants 42, Philadelphia 7

Adjusted Yards per Play: 8.91 – NY Giants, 4.49 – Philadelphia

AY/P Projected Point Totals: NY Giants 36.91, Philadelphia 20.85

Quick Thought: If the Giants were in the AFC, where would you rank them? Below Denver and New England, for sure, but after that they’d probably be the scariest team to face in the playoffs. You could make the same argument for the Bears, Cowboys and maybe even the Rams, Panthers and Saints. Tough time to be a good-but-not-great team in the NFC.

Denver 38, Kansas City 3

Adjusted Yards per Play: 7.08 – Denver, 2.48 – Kansas City

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Denver 38.43, Kansas City 8.50

Quick Thought: Adrian Peterson’s freaking amazing, but Peyton Manning’s your 2012 Most Valuable Player. Somehow. 4659 yards, 68.6% completion percentage (the highest of his career), 37 touchdowns against 11 interceptions, a league-leading 7.89 Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt – all in all, his best season since 2006. Absolutely incredible.

New England 28, Miami 0

Adjusted Yards per Play: 6.97 – New England, 2.83 – Miami

AY/P Projected Point Totals: New England 37.34, Miami 11.52

Quick Thought: Everybody and their grandmother is now penciling a Pats-Broncos AFC Championship Game, which of course means we’re going to get Bengals-Ravens for the Super Bowl instead. “Dalton! Flacco! It’s the AFC Championship on CBS! PLEASE DON’T CHANGE THE CHANNEL.”

San Francisco 27, Arizona 13

Adjusted Yards per Play: 6.97 – San Francisco, 3.53 – Arizona

AY/P Projected Point Totals: San Francisco 33.36, Arizona 13.36

Quick Thought: Colin Kaepernick ended up finishing second in the league in Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt. He threw 500 fewer passes than Tom Brady, but still! NOT BAD.

Seattle 20, St. Louis 13

Adjusted Yards per Play: 7.31 – Seattle, 5.02 – St. Louis

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Seattle 28.72, St. Louis 21.87

Quick Thought: Didn’t take long for Jeff Fisher to turn the Rams into Tennessee Slightly Northwest. Play ugly, be a pain in the keester, keep it close, maybe win the game. Nobody’s better at keeping a team perpetually around .500. Enjoy the next 17 years, St. Louis!

Cincinnati 23, Baltimore 17

Adjusted Yards per Play: 4.27 – Cincinnati, 4.18 – Baltimore

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Cincinnati 14.95, Baltimore 24.78

Quick Thought: I ended up losing the Pigskin Pick ‘Em group to Lucas by two games – partly because Tony Romo enjoys screwing with people who bet on the Cowboys, but also because Tyrod Taylor threw a late pick-six to Carlos Dunlap and gave Cincinnati a late cover in a game they were getting thoroughly outplayed in. NO I’M NOT BITTER WHY DO YOU ASK?

Carolina 44, New Orleans 38

Adjusted Yards per Play: 7.91 – Carolina, 7.56 – New Orleans

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Carolina 41.81, New Orleans 34.02

Quick Thought: The two likeliest 2013 NFC South winners, in my opinion. The Panthers will likely rebound from their terrible close-game performance this year (as long as they keep Ron Rivera far, far away from the Late Game Decision button) and the Saints will go from having a couple of guys who had no idea what they were doing to one of the five best coaches in the league. That counts as an upgrade, in my opinion.

Tampa Bay 22, Atlanta 17

Adjusted Yards per Play: 5.55 – Tampa Bay, 5.13 – Atlanta

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Tampa Bay 25.77, Atlanta 22.72

Quick Thought: Because Atlanta looked so good the two previous weeks against the Giants and Lions, I won’t give them crap this week for losing to Tampa Bay at home in a game they were MOST DEFINITELY TRYING TO WIN. I’m a nice guy like that.

Pittsburgh 24, Cleveland 10

Adjusted Yards per Play: 5.13 – Pittsburgh, 2.34 – Cleveland

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Pittsburgh 19.42, Cleveland 10.36

Quick Thought: It’s entirely possible that the following is because of my nonexistent expectations for him, but I was actually pleasantly surprised by Thad Lewis. He seemed remotely competent! Of course, maybe that’s just the magic of Pat Shurmur: any quarterback he coaches plays at a remotely competent level and no further. Maybe that’s why he’s getting fired?

San Diego 24, Oakland 21

Adjusted Yards per Play: 5.00 – San Diego, 4.91 – Oakland

AY/P Projected Point Totals: San Diego 17.86, Oakland 20.00

Quick Thought: SSLYAR received four visits yesterday from Google hits for the term “Jon Gruden poop.” All I can say is: I’m glad I’ve found a kindred spirit out there.

Buffalo 28, NY Jets 9

Adjusted Yards per Play: 6.04 – Buffalo, 3.29 – NY Jets

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Buffalo 24.59, NY Jets 16.92

Quick Thought: Here’s hoping for a better 2013 for you, Timmy.

Tennessee 38, Jacksonville 20

Adjusted Yards per Play: 4.73 – Tennessee, 3.94 – Jacksonville

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Tennessee 17.23, Jacksonville 19.98

Quick Thought: What a crazy game. Tennessee had four return touchdowns in a five minute span and then also gave up a punt block touchdown late in the game, too. Maybe if you two had been doing these things all season, people would be more likely to watch your games, guys! Keep that in mind for 2013.

Week 16 Quick Thoughts

Scattered stats and thoughts regarding Week 16 of the 2012 NFL Season…

Seattle 42, San Francisco 13

Adjusted Yards per Play: 6.47 – Seattle, 4.25 – San Francisco

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Seattle 28.65, San Francisco 17.00

Quick Thoughts:

1. My goodness are the Seahawks entertaining. This was basically a blowout from the get-go and it was still possibly the most entertaining Sunday Night game we’ve had all year. As Jon Gruden might explain it: “These Seahawks, I call ’em Warren Sapp because they’re tough to run on and have a BIG PERSONALITY. I see Marshawn Lynch Beast Mode-ing all over the place, putting a hat on a hat, Gruden-grinding, and doling out punishment for these defensive suckers who think they can bring him down with just three people. I look at Richard Sherman jawing with Michael Crabtree, sarcastically clapping after they complete a pass on him, and virtually molesting these 49er receivers all the way down the field – but you can’t call DPI every play, so it’s a smart move by a smart guy. I see Doug Baldwin turning easy catches into circus catches unnecessarily – but they still count the same, so why not turn every catch into a 10 difficulty rating? And I watch Russell Wilson and get FLASHBACKS to another guy who used to run around like a chicken with his noggin cut off. That’s right – I’m thinking of BRETT FAVRE. After all, everybody can be compared to Brett Favre at the end of the day. I tell ya, I get a kick out of watching these Seahawks every time I put on their film at 2:30 in the morning – they’re the late night caffeine boost this football junkie SORELY NEEDS. *right hand gesture*“

2. With that said…the 49ers and Seahawks both ended up averaging 5.6 yards per play last night and Seattle only netted thirty-three more yards total than San Francisco – if you didn’t know what the final score was before looking at those stats, you would have assumed that this was a very tight game. The biggest reason why the Seahawks turned this into a rain-soaked blowout? Absurdly good production on third down. Seattle only failed to pick up a first down TWICE on thirteen third down plays; San Francisco, on the other hand, was 3-for-11. Much like it seemed EVERYTHING bounced the 49ers’ way during the first 35 minutes of last week’s game at New England, virtually everything seemed to go against them last night, most notably on David Akers’ blocked field goal that bounced RIGHT TO Richard Sherman streaking in the opposite direction. In summary: let’s neither exalt the Seahawks too highly or bury the 49ers too emphatically in the next week or so, okay?

3. Finally, your Al Michaels Golden Blowout Call of the Night: after referee Bill Vinovich picked up a flag on the final kickoff of the game with two minutes left, Michaels exhaled, “Thank God.” If there’s anyone out there who hates killing air time during blowouts more than Al, I’d like to meet that person!

Cincinnati 13, Pittsburgh 10

Adjusted Yards per Play: 2.02 – Cincinnati, 2.54 – Pittsburgh

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Cincinnati 9.09, Pittsburgh 11.43

Quick Thought: Tough to say Todd Haley’s first season in Pittsburgh has been anything other than a disaster. After a rough start, the Steeler defense once again turned out to be one of the five best in the league this year – it’s Pittsburgh’s offensive woes that are keeping them out of the postseason and in danger of falling below .500 for the first time in nine years. Mike Wallace has been MIA for most of the season, failing to hit the home run plays he seemed to have in plentiful supply the last two years. And the running game has been ugly – Rashard Mendenhall’s been either hurt or ineffective and Jonathan Dwyer and Isaac Redman have been most proficient at running into the arms of defenders. Say, where’s Bruce Arians when you need him?

Baltimore 33, NY Giants 14

Adjusted Yards per Play: 7.32 – Baltimore, 5.02 – NY Giants

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Baltimore 42.35, NY Giants 16.14

Quick Thought: The Ravens illustrated a truth about the Giants defense that has been apparent all season but rarely seen in practice: if you don’t turn the ball over against the Giants, you’ll be able to move the ball at will. Still surprising to see the Giants essentially destroy their playoff hopes by playing so poorly in back-to-back road games. Did you know that if the Giants, as anticipated, do not come up with a miracle Sunday and sneak in as a wild-card, it will be the third time in four years they failed to make the playoffs? FIRE TOM COUGHLIN!

Minnesota 23, Houston 6

Adjusted Yards per Play: 4.59 – Minnesota, 1.64 – Houston

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Minnesota 23.93, Houston 6.21

Quick Thought: As a Bears fan, I would just like to extend a hearty SCREW YOU to Houston for not showing up offensively yesterday. It warmed the cockles of my heart, it truly did.

New Orleans 34, Dallas 31 (OT)

Adjusted Yards per Play: 7.06 – New Orleans, 8.50 – Dallas

AY/P Projected Point Totals: New Orleans 45.89, Dallas 34.00

Quick Thought: Holy crap that fumble scrum after the Marques Colston catch in overtime was exciting. Is there a way we could ensure that would happen in every overtime? Like, if the game is tied at the end of overtime during the regular season, just toss the ball at the fifty-yard line and have every player and coach from both sidelines dive for the ball. Whoever comes up with it wins. Seems more exciting than just shaking hands and calling it a tie, right?

Washington 27, Philadelphia 20

Adjusted Yards per Play: 6.19 – Washington, 4.75 – Philadelphia

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Washington 23.43, Philadelphia 25.45

Quick Thought: I really don’t think Washington will go particularly far in the postseason if they get there – primarily because they’d likely have to face Seattle in the first round – but I’m definitely rooting for them to get there. Partly because, you know, screw the Cowboys and partly because, you know, RGIII. An RGIII-Russell Wilson matchup in the Wild Card round would NOT be unexciting.

St. Louis 28, Tampa Bay 13

Adjusted Yards per Play: 4.63 – St. Louis, 2.70 – Tampa Bay

AY/P Projected Point Totals: St. Louis 17.86, Tampa Bay 15.62

Quick Thought: Jaaaaaaaaaaaassshhhhhhh Freeman just throws interceptions, apparently. Great day for Janoris Jenkins – he scored his fourth defensive touchdown of the season AND he gets to play in Seattle next week, where, as you may know, marijuana was recently decriminalized. Everything’s coming up Janoris!

Chicago 28, Arizona 13

Adjusted Yards per Play: 5.62 – Chicago, 1.50 – Arizona

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Chicago 24.09, Arizona 7.71

Quick Thought: Speaking as a fan of a team playing against the Cardinals, I can’t tell you how much relief you feel whenever you score a touchdown against Arizona. If no lead is safe against Tom Brady or Peyton Manning, then any lead is safe against the Cardinals. My heart rate was nice and low after Zack Bowman scored the Bears’ first defensive touchdown Sunday. Thank you again for playing Ryan Lindley, Coach Whisenhunt!

Green Bay 55, Tennessee 7

Adjusted Yards per Play: 7.90 – Green Bay, 1.86 – Tennessee

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Green Bay 42.89, Tennessee 7.84

Quick Thought: I don’t know how this went in other parts of the country, but here in the Chicago area yesterday we were stuck with the Packers-Titans rout until the bitter end while the Bengals and Steelers were only locked in a fiercely contested contest that would essentially decide a playoff spot.  Obviously, since the Titans scored a touchdown at the end, the game WAS in fact still competitive. Maybe I should start shelling out the dough for NFL Sunday Ticket? …*thinking*…Nah, still too cheap.

New England 23, Jacksonville 16

Adjusted Yards per Play: 4.21 – New England, 4.28 – Jacksonville

AY/P Projected Point Totals: New England 21.35, Jacksonville 22.93

Quick Thought: Uhhhhhhhhhhhhh….you feelin’ all right there, New England? Much more worrisome performance than in their loss to San Francisco last week. Chad Henne was more efficient than Tom Brady? Maybe the Mayans weren’t so wrong after all. Oh wait… 

Denver 34, Cleveland 12

Adjusted Yards per Play: 6.56 – Denver, 4.22 – Cleveland

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Denver 35.14, Cleveland 18.09

Quick Thought: You don’t think Peyton Manning’s going to be pulling for his old team next week, do you? Heck, I’m pretty sure Peyton would cut off the big toe on his left foot if it meant he didn’t have to face the Patriots in the second round.

Indianapolis 20, Kansas City 13

Adjusted Yards per Play: 4.74 – Indianapolis, 5.78 – Kansas City

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Indianapolis 22.01, Kansas City 27.66

Quick Thought: What in the ho-ho heck do the Colts have to do to lose a football game? They got outgained 507-288, averaged 4.4 yards per play to Kansas City’s 7.6 (KANSAS CITY!), and gave up 352 yards ON THE GROUND. Peyton Hillis ran for over 100 yards, for crying out loud. I…I’m at a loss.   Unlike the Colts, who APPARENTLY CAN’T LOSE EVEN WHEN THEY’RE ACTIVELY TRYING TO.

Atlanta 31, Detroit 18

Adjusted Yards per Play: 7.71 – Atlanta, 5.09 – Detroit

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Atlanta 30.29, Detroit 28.36

Quick Thought: It utterly boggles my mind that Detroit is 4-11. Just utterly boggles the mind. How a team that has THAT talented an offense and THAT proficient of a pass rush can have two fewer wins than the Chargers is freaking crazy. Football doesn’t make sense sometimes, you guys.

Carolina 17, Oakland 6

Adjusted Yards per Play: 4.51 – Carolina, 2.44 – Oakland

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Carolina 19.01, Oakland 10.28

Quick Thought: What happened to the plan of giving Terrelle Pryor a shot, Oakland? We all know what Matt Leinart is at this point – a whole lot of three-yard dumpoffs via a noodly left arm. Why put him in after Carson Palmer got hurt in a meaningless game? Time to see how bad Terrelle sucks so you can move on to the next blown draft choice!

Miami 24, Buffalo 10

Adjusted Yards per Play: 5.82 – Miami, 3.17 – Buffalo

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Miami 25.77, Buffalo 14.72

Quick Thought: Not even Mark Murphy can muster enthusiasm for the Bills anymore. That’s a bad sign, folks.

San Diego 27, NY Jets 17

Adjusted Yards per Play: 4.70 – San Diego, 2.88 – NY Jets

AY/P Projected Point Totals: San Diego 18.80, NY Jets 12.14

Quick Thought: Uh, Rex, if you wanted someone to get sacked eleven times, Timmy Tebow would have MORE THAN OBLIGED, my good friend. In fact, he would have found a way to lose twenty-eight yards on one sack if only you would have let him. THE PEOPLE DEMAND TEBOW START AGAINST BUFFALO AND THEY DEMAND IT NOW.

Week 15 Quick Thoughts

Scattered stats and thoughts regarding Week 15 of the 2012 NFL Season…

San Francisco 41, New England 34

Adjusted Yards per Play: 5.97 – San Francisco, 4.57 – New England

AY/P Projected Point Totals: San Francisco 27.72, New England 30.03

Quick Thoughts:

1. So for the first 35 minutes or so of the game last night, those of us who had been saying all year, “You know, guys, San Francisco is pretty good,” felt pretty vindicated in our Harbaugh trust (and, yes, I am gratuitously tooting my own horn. What other point is there in writing a blog?). Patrick Willis and NaVorro Bowman were flying around and completely neutralizing the massive advantage the Patriots usually have on every other team they play: intermediate passes over the middle. Did it help that the Pats were uncharacteristically charitable in putting the ball on the ground and that the Niners had a ball magnet (football, that is) attached to their chests? Why let facts get in the way of the narrative? The 49ers were ahead 31-3 five minutes into the third quarter, Colin Kaepernick was making great stick throws deep down the field, Aldon Smith was coming uncovered and talking smack to Brady, and Frank Gore was turning broken plays into untouched touchdowns. Clearly the 49ers were going to win by 52 and there was nothing that could possibly change that outcome from occurring…

2. Then all of a sudden, WHOA HEY TOM BRADY YOU CAN’T JUST SCORE THAT FAST WITHOUT SENDING A NOTE TO YOUR SUPERVISOR FIRST. The Pats started looking like the Pats again, hitting Welker and Woodhead underneath (not even Willis and Bowman can keep up with them in SHORT spaces) and coaxing Brandon Lloyd out of the early retirement he had announced in the first half to catch some deep passes for them in the second. In a span of fourteen game minutes and sixteen seconds (and seemingly five minutes of actual time), New England turned a 31-3 deficit into a 31-31 tie and had ALL THE MOMENTUM IN THE WORLD and obviously Kaepernick was going to throw a pick and Brady would milk the clock down and score one last touchdown and the Patriots would have their greatest win of the- oh wait, LaMichael James just took that kickoff back sixty yards. Oh wait, Kaepernick just hit Michael Crabtree on a thirty-eight yard touchdown pass. Huh. San Francisco won anyway. WHAT ABOUT THE NARRATIVE, GUYS? WHAT ABOUT THE NARRATIVE????

3. So, in an extremely roundabout way, we got the close game we expected, with San Francisco’s excellence on both sides of the ball proving to be juuuuuussssstttt a bit too much for the Patriots in the end. Well, that and San Francisco recovering SEVEN OUT OF THE EIGHT FUMBLES in the game. Is it possible the game’s outcome would have been different had the fumble luck been more evenly distributed? Absolutely. Unfortunately for the Patriots, the Occupy Movement has not made much headway in the NFL nor in real life and thus they likely now await a game in the Wild-Card Round of the playoffs and a trip to Denver should the two teams meet in the divisional round. You picked a good time to be lucky, 49ers! You picked a good time to be lucky…

Green Bay 21, Chicago 13

Adjusted Yards per Play: 5.65 – Green Bay, 3.44 – Chicago

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Green Bay 28.65, Chicago 11.79

Quick Thought: No comment.

Denver 34, Baltimore 17

Adjusted Yards per Play: 5.47 – Denver, 3.60 – Baltimore

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Denver 29.30, Baltimore 15.94

Quick Thought: I’ll give Flacco credit for huffing and puffing all the way down the field on Chris Harris’s pick-six, trying desperately to prevent the TAINT from occurring. Even though he didn’t end up making the tackle, he deserves roughly ten thousand times the credit for his attempt than Tom Brady does for his actual “tackle” on Carlos Rogers last night. Brady couldn’t have made a more half-hearted slide than if he was stuck playing on the Astros in late September. Carlos Rogers should be ashamed of himself.

Dallas 27, Pittsburgh 24 (OT)

Adjusted Yards per Play: 6.64 – Dallas, 6.61 – Pittsburgh

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Dallas 30.35, Pittsburgh 28.80

Quick Thought: Brandon Carr obviously made a great play on that game-winning interception in overtime, but after seeing that replay like ten times…HOW DOES HE NOT GET INTO THE END ZONE??? It’s like he got to the one-foot line and his computer programming completely malfunctioned at the thought of scoring. Ahmad Bradshaw could learn well to emulate Carr’s touchdown avoidance the next time he needs to take a dive on the one when the other team is trying to let him score in the Super Bowl.

Atlanta 34, NY Giants 0

Adjusted Yards per Play: 7.08 – Atlanta, 2.47 – NY Giants

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Atlanta 33.88, NY Giants 8.29

Quick Thought: WHOA HEY AN ACTUALLY IMPRESSIVE VICTORY FROM THE FALCONS. I acknowledge your achievement, gentlemen. Also, I remain convinced Tony Gonzalez could play until he’s 50 just on post-up moves alone. And he’d still probably be able to dunk even then. Take that, Vernon Davis!

Houston 29, Indianapolis 17

Adjusted Yards per Play: 6.62 – Houston, 4.60 – Indianapolis

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Houston 31.21, Indianapolis 18.73

Quick Thought: Congratulations to Bryan Braman on setting the Texans single-season franchise record for most blocked punts in a season! His remarkable mark of TWO blocked punts truly shows what the human body is capable of accomplishing when completely unblocked twice in one season. Well done, big guy!

Minnesota 36, St. Louis 22

Adjusted Yards per Play: 6.14 – Minnesota, 5.16 – St. Louis

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Minnesota 25.88, St. Louis 28.38

Quick Thought: Actual quote from the Associated Press’s game story yesterday: “Slight consolation for the Rams: Without the two long-gainers, Peterson had 78 yards on 22 carries.” WOO-HOO! You know, without the two kick return touchdowns and one punt return touchdown he has this season, Jacoby Jones has ZERO return touchdowns this year. EVERYBODY’S HELD THESE TWO GUYS IN CHECK SO WELL.

Washington 38, Cleveland 21

Adjusted Yards per Play: 6.55 – Washington, 5.02 – Cleveland

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Washington 34.62, Cleveland 18.65

Quick Thought: Sooooooooo….it doesn’t really matter who’s under center for the Redskins, does it? I think we can all see that the real offensive masterminds in D.C. are the Shanahans and they could stick anybody in at quarterback and rack up 400 yards of offense, right? I’M JUST KIDDING, RGIII, PLEASE DON’T HURT ME.

New Orleans 41, Tampa Bay 0

Adjusted Yards per Play: 8.42 – New Orleans, 2.17 – Tampa Bay

AY/P Projected Point Totals: New Orleans 39.09, Tampa Bay 11.16

Quick Thought: How in God’s Name Did THIS Defense Get a Shutout, Vol. 1: in an awe-inspiring display of empty yardage that even the Raiders would stand up and applaud for, the Buccaneers actually racked up 386 yards against the Saints but turned the ball over five times and failed on two other fourth-down attempts. Pro Football Reference says it’s the most yards a team has ever accrued without scoring a point, narrowly edging the Dolphins’ 35-0 loss to the Colts in 1970 by three yards. Hey, if you’re going to underperform, why not do it spectacularly?

Seattle 50, Buffalo 17

Adjusted Yards per Play: 9.93 – Seattle, 3.48 – Buffalo

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Seattle 40.43, Buffalo 16.65

Quick Thought: Seattle is utterly terrifying right now, although I would like to point out that the Bills seemed to dial their defensive effort level back to October levels — which is to say it was non-existent. Additionally, Earl Thomas’s interception return for a touchdown seemed to answer the question: “Which NFL offense would make the worst defense?” Ryan Fitzpatrick’s attempts at tackling made Tom Brady look like Ronnie Lott.

Carolina 31, San Diego 7

Adjusted Yards per Play: 5.43 – Carolina, 1.87 – San Diego

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Carolina 28.70, San Diego 6.01

Quick Thought: Mike Tolbert said after the game that he helped his Panther teammates with the Chargers’ terminology for their audibles and checks and keys and that was a major reason why the Chargers struggled to get over 150 yards on offense. Now with the way San Diego’s played offensively this year, it’s entirely possible that the Panthers could have accomplished this fine outing without the inside tips, but wouldn’t it be just like Norv to not pick up on little things such as, “Oh, we’re facing a team whose head coach and fullback were with us only for about five years, maybe we should mix up our terminology today?” Also, props to Tolbert for the following quote: “They don’t think a little fat man can jump, but I can definitely get up.”

Arizona 38, Detroit 10

Adjusted Yards per Play: 4.14 – Arizona, 2.66 – Detroit

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Arizona 15.08, Detroit 14.06

Quick Thought: When you’re outTAINTing the King of TAINTs, the immortal Ryan Lindley, it’s perhaps a sign that your season should maybe be coming to a close…

Miami 24, Jacksonville 3

Adjusted Yards per Play: 5.74 – Miami, 5.25 – Jacksonville

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Miami 27.06, Jacksonville 21.38

Quick Thought: The Jaguars lost a touchdown in the second quarter when Guy Whimper failed to report as tackle-eligible on a play where Justin Blackmon caught a twenty-yard touchdown from Chad Henne. Guess Guy didn’t WHIMPER loudly enough to the official, eh? EH???????? Man, this post really needs to end soon.

Oakland 15, Kansas City 0

Adjusted Yards per Play: 4.47 – Oakland, 1.61 – Kansas City

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Oakland 23.95, Kansas City 5.29

Quick Thought: How in God’s Name Did THIS Defense Get a Shutout, Vol. 2: unlike the Saints, the Raiders were completely dominant defensively. The Chiefs didn’t get their first first down of the game until five minutes left in the third quarter. The Kansas City Chiefs: Making 4-10 teams look like the ’85 Bears since 2012.

Week 14 Quick Thoughts

Scattered stats and thoughts regarding Week 14 of the 2012 NFL Season…

Washington 31, Baltimore 28 (OT)

Adjusted Yards per Play: 6.52 – Washington, 5.93 – Baltimore

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Washington 30.74, Baltimore 24.57

Quick Thoughts:

1. Remember a few weeks ago during the Thanksgiving game when Brandon Banks stupidly tried to return a punt out of his own end zone and wound up getting tackled at about the 5? Strangely, that may have ended up being a blessing in disguise. Perhaps Banks would’ve been able to replicate the 64-yard punt return Richard Crawford had in overtime yesterday to put the Redskins in position for the game-winning field goal, but given his returning antics on Turkey Day and the general indisputable fact that he’s terrible, I doubt it. It’s always interesting to see how, over the course of a team’s season, plays that didn’t seem to be much more than a trifle at the time can end up leading to bigger, season-defining plays down the line. Because of Crawford’s punt return – and a little help from Kirk Cousins, of course – the Redskins are 7-6 and still in good position to put major heat on the Giants (for the NFC East) or the Bears (for the last wild-card spot). Well, still in good position as long as…

2. RGIII ISN’T DEAD!! Holy crap was that terrifying. As a Chicago sports fan, I was getting ‘Nam-like flashbacks to Derrick Rose’s non-contact knee injury in the playoffs last spring while watching Haloti Ngata’s devastating hit to RGIII’s knee. I’m sure all you Redskins fans out there were somewhat more concerned than I was. Luckily, it’s just a sprain and it’s not season-ending. If RGIII is healthy and able to play the Redskins’ last three games, they’ve got a pretty decent shot at running the table (as long as Scramblin’ Nick Foles doesn’t run for 300 yards against them, anyway). If he isn’t…well, 8-8 or 9-7 ain’t bad.

3. Baltimore, on the other hand, is the master of playing almost EXACTLY to their opponents’ capabilities. This isn’t a particularly useful skill when you should be blowing out Kansas City and are instead needing a dubious roughing-the-passer penalty to get out of Arrowhead with a three-point win. But it IS useful when your next three games are against the Broncos, Giants, and Bengals. Cincinnati and Pittsburgh’s losses yesterday basically assure the AFC North title will go to Baltimore, which in turn likely assures us all that the Ravens will win one playoff game and then lose a heartbreaker in the second round. That whole playing to the level of your competition thing, you know.

Dallas 20, Cincinnati 19

Adjusted Yards per Play: 4.04 – Dallas, 5.36 – Cincinnati

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Dallas 20.20, Cincinnati 22.21

Quick Thought: One of many games from yesterday in which the Adjusted Yards per Play metric thinks the wrong team won. In Cincinnati’s case, they lost because they kicked three field goals deep in the red zone instead of coming away with touchdowns. Thoughts and prayers go out to the families of Jerry Brown and Josh Brent.

Minnesota 21, Chicago 14

Adjusted Yards per Play: 4.34 – Minnesota, 5.32 – Chicago

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Minnesota 17.36, Chicago 27.74

Quick Thought: Every all-time great running back has one season where you could try to stop them by lining up eleven tanks on defense and nuking the crap out of them but it wouldn’t matter because they’d just run through them or around them anyway (or, in the case of Jim Brown, both). Coming into this year, the unquestioned best back of this era, Adrian Peterson, hadn’t really had that one year where you look at his final stat line and scream GAHHHH KILL IT WITH FIRE. Suffice it to say, I think he may be having that year in 2012.

NY Giants 52, New Orleans 27

Adjusted Yards per Play: 6.84 – NY Giants, 4.96 – New Orleans

AY/P Projected Point Totals: NY Giants 30.29, New Orleans 24.09

Quick Thought: What a weird game. The Giants couldn’t really stop the Saints and Eli HERPED and DERPED more than a few times throwing the ball decades late into blanket coverage. On the other hand, the Saints’ kick return coverage seemed to consist of toddlers from local daycare establishments and Drew Brees continued his quest to score twenty-one points with one throw. Plus, Troy Aikman and Joe Buck had an awkward running dialogue about Buck’s suit throughout the game. Just a strange day all around.

Green Bay 27, Detroit 20

Adjusted Yards per Play: 5.35 – Green Bay, 4.24 – Detroit

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Green Bay 19.87, Detroit 23.62

Quick Thought: I like to think that after the Lions got up 14-0 on the Packers last night, they thought to themselves, “All right, we’ve proved ourselves to be talented, let’s tank the rest of this one so we get a better draft pick in April and easier schedule next year.” Of course, even if that was the case last night, it doesn’t really explain what they were thinking in their four prior losses…

San Diego 34, Pittsburgh 24

Adjusted Yards per Play: 4.48 – San Diego, 5.00 – Pittsburgh

AY/P Projected Point Totals: San Diego 25.28, Pittsburgh 21.79

Quick Thought: At one point late in the first half, both Philip Rivers and Ben Roethlisberger had thrown for forty-two yards each and were apparently in a contest to see who could do the most damage to their yards per attempt average. Like he has all season, Rivers won that battle handily. Yet somehow, even though the Steelers averaged nearly two more yards per play, they got blown out by a 4-8 Chargers team. Asked why he thought the Steelers were so inconsistent, Roethlisberger said, “I have no clue. If I knew I don’t think we’d do it anymore.” Good to know!

San Francisco 27, Miami 13

Adjusted Yards per Play: 6.93 – San Francisco, 4.33 – Miami

AY/P Projected Point Totals: San Francisco 27.23, Miami 17.63

Quick Thought: Anybody else take an, ahem, active interest in how Colin Kaepernick’s last fourth-quarter run turned out? Given that I had picked the 49ers at -10.5, I was obviously standing up at the dinner table while clenching my fork with white knuckles and repeatedly shouting, “DON’T STOP AT THE ONE! DON’T STOP AT THE ONE!” And he didn’t! Would it have technically been a smarter play to stop at the one, so that your team could just kneel out the rest of the clock and not worry about further injury to your players in meaningless action? Of course. But on behalf of all people who picked the Niners yesterday, I’d like to stand and salute Colin Kaepernick for his selfish decision to score the touchdown. Godspeed, buddy.

Carolina 30, Atlanta 20

Adjusted Yards per Play: 7.87 – Carolina, 6.08 – Atlanta

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Carolina 38.23, Atlanta 26.93

Quick Thought: What…what’s going on here? Carolina thoroughly outplayed a team and actually won? Atlanta got thoroughly outplayed, then started a crazy comeback and still lost? Who’s in charge of the narrative around here, guys? Someone forgot to edit the ending properly…

Indianapolis 27, Tennessee 23

Adjusted Yards per Play: 3.22 – Indianapolis, 4.77 – Tennessee

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Indianapolis 15.64, Tennessee 20.44

Quick Thought: Andrew Luck’s pick-six while on his knees was A): wholly hilarious and B): obviously not a pick-six, since his knees were on the ground. I’d say that was one of the worst replay rulings of recent vintage, but I had Tennessee at +5.5. So, simply put, I thought it was a tough call and further indisputable evidence – such as a signed confession from Luck, perhaps, or a DNA sampling from the field – was needed to overturn it.

Seattle 58, Arizona 0

Adjusted Yards per Play: 8.43 – Seattle, -3.90 – Arizona

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Seattle 39.14, Arizona -16.16

Quick Thought: This was my best week for picks against the spread all year by far: I’m 11-4 heading into the Monday night game tonight. Of course, since one of the picks I got wrong was Arizona +10.5, I don’t necessarily feel that proud about the wins. The following is a text message exchange between Lucas and I late yesterday afternoon:

• Lucas (5:02 P.M.): Holy crap Seattle.
• Nathaniel (5:05 P.M.): I stand by my Cardinals pick! I stand by my Cardinals pick!
• Lucas (5:09 P.M.): We’re sure the line wasn’t Seattle -49.5, right?
• Nathaniel (5:11 P.M.): They switched the line on ESPN.com to Sea -63.5 at the last minute today, didn’t you see?

Sadly he didn’t fall for it.

St. Louis 15, Buffalo 12

Adjusted Yards per Play: 4.18 – St. Louis, 3.55 – Buffalo

AY/P Projected Point Totals: St. Louis 20.00, Buffalo 14.71

Quick Thought: The difference between the Rams’ turnaround season from 2010 and their turnaround season this year is strength of schedule. Despite winning seven games and coming agonizingly close to the NFC West title in 2010, they played the easiest schedule in the league; there wasn’t actually that much to get excited about once stripped away the crappy teams. This year, however, they’re going .500 despite facing the toughest schedule in the league. They’ve got two semi-juggernauts in San Francisco and Seattle ahead of them currently, so it’s tough to say exactly that the future looks rosy for the Rams. But certainly there’s more reason for hope there than any time since Mike Martz was affiliated with the team. Yep, it’s been a while.

Philadelphia 23, Tampa Bay 21

Adjusted Yards per Play: 5.85 – Philadelphia, 5.50 – Tampa Bay

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Philadelphia 30.50, Tampa Bay 26.71

Quick Thought: Call of the day goes to Terry Bradshaw announcing Nick Foles’ glacially-paced touchdown scramble: “Golly is he slow.” Didn’t even try to reference fried chicken in the same breath. Well done, Terry!

NY Jets 17, Jacksonville 10

Adjusted Yards per Play: 3.39 – NY Jets, 3.16 – Jacksonville

AY/P Projected Point Totals: NY Jets 15.01, Jacksonville 15.80

Quick Thought: Look at Jacksonville’s Adjusted Yards per Play, Tim! That is what you’ve been missing out on this year by choosing the Jets over the Jags. It’s okay, we all make mistakes…

Cleveland 30, Kansas City 7

Adjusted Yards per Play: 5.77 – Cleveland, 5.48 – Kansas City

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Cleveland 28.03, Kansas City 20.35

Quick Thought: In today’s Sign That You Should Probably Be Just A Little Worried About Friday the 21st: the Browns have now won three in a row. TIME TO HEAD TO BIG LOTS AND LOAD UP ON BOTTLED WATER AND CANNED PEACHES. The end is nigh.

Week 13 Quick Thoughts

Scattered stats and thoughts regarding Week 13 of the 2012 NFL Season…

Pittsburgh 23, Baltimore 20

Adjusted Yards per Play: 4.09 – Pittsburgh, 4.02 – Baltimore

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Pittsburgh 18.99, Baltimore 16.65

Quick Thoughts:

1. Charlie Batch just won’t die, will he? Every time he has a four turnover game and it looks like it’s safe to pass the Remarkably Ancient Backup Quarterback mantle to Matt Hasselbeck, he comes back and does something like this: namely, play JUUUUUSSSSSSTTTTT well enough to hang on to his job. Are you aware that his first season as a starter coincided with Barry Sanders’s last season before he retired? It feels like Barry Sanders has been out of football for 40 years. HOW IS CHARLIE BATCH OF ALL PEOPLE STILL AROUND? Incredible. In the interest of full disclosure, we should mention that Chaz played pretty lights-out in the second half; if Emmanuel Sanders hadn’t been so busy dropping the ball due to imaginary hits, the Steelers probably wouldn’t have needed the Suisham field goal at the end of the game to win. Of course, if Chaz hadn’t thrown the ball ten feet over a wide, WIDE open Mike Wallace in the back of the end zone at the end of the first half, Suisham probably wouldn’t have been needed, either. On balance, let’s just say this: holy crap is Charlie Batch old.

2. This was a typical Ravens-Steelers nailbiting slugfest in all its glory, but I could never muster the typical level of enthusiasm I usually reserve for it. Partially, I think this is due to the fact that they JUST PLAYED TWO WEEKS AGO. The NFL schedule is full of weird oddities this year: most teams have either a three-game road trip or three-game homestand, 90% of the NFC East divisional games have been played in the second half of the season, and the Ravens and Steelers (along with the Bears & Vikings and Texans & Colts) have had to play each other twice in three weeks. Speaking purely as a casual fan, I hate this arrangement. There’s just not enough to time to re-psych yourself up for a big nationally televised game when you JUST saw the same teams play in another big nationally televised game the other day. As with most problems in the NFL this season, I think we can blame this on the enhanced Thursday Night schedule. HOW DARE YOU OFFER US MORE DAYS OF FOOTBALL, NFL?

3. Finally, I’d just like to mention that Heath Miller is really freaking good. For some reason, he never gets the same amount of publicity that Jason Witten or Tony Gonzalez or Jimmy Graham or any other tight end not named Gronk gets. Let the record show he’s every bit as good as them, if not more so.

Green Bay 23, Minnesota 14

Adjusted Yards per Play: 5.89 – Green Bay, 5.83 – Minnesota

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Green Bay 30.71. Minnesota 22.07

Quick Thought: How different would Minnesota’s season look right now if Joe Webb had been the starter the entire way? I think probably either much better or much worse – I honestly have no idea if he’s even passable throwing the ball – but it would have certainly been different and likely much more exciting than the Christian Ponder Experience. Just think about how good this Vikings offense could be if it had even an average passing game or alternative method of scoring touchdowns other than Adrian Peterson trucking the entire defense over an 80-yard span. That guy is ridiculous.

Denver 31, Tampa Bay 23

Adjusted Yards per Play: 5.19 – Denver, 4.93 – Tampa Bay

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Denver 24.84, Tampa Bay 21.48

Quick Thought: Interestingly, Denver’s getting on a bit of a roll at a point when they’re starting to cool off a little offensively. They only averaged 5.0 yards per play yesterday against a team with a really, REALLY bad pass defense and failed to reach the 20-point barrier against the Chiefs last week. They’re still on a seven-game winning streak because their defense is excellent and they’ve stopped getting killed in the turnover battle. As always, it’s much better to win relatively unconvincingly than to look good while losing.

Seattle 23, Chicago 17 (OT)

Adjusted Yards per Play: 6.61 – Seattle, 6.75 – Chicago

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Seattle 33.52, Chicago 28.45

Quick Thought: Remember when some idiot was saying that he “couldn’t take (the Seahawks) seriously as a playoff contender until they try someone else at quarterback. Russell Wilson isn’t ready?” Yeah, neither do I.

Indianapolis 35, Detroit 33

Adjusted Yards per Play: 5.73 – Indianapolis, 6.21 – Detroit

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Indianapolis 30.29, Detroit 33.27

Quick Thought: All right, William Goldman, try to write a better sports movie script than this. The inspirational, never-say-die, always-finds-a-way-to-win team has a semi-miraculous comeback against the more talented, always-say-die, never-finds-away-to-win team who also has a player who likes to kick his opponents in their junk area. I mean, you can’t possibly find a more clearly defined protagonist vs. antagonist battle out of any other combination of teams in the NFL, can you? Well, other than the Raiders vs. anybody, I suppose.

St. Louis 16, San Francisco 13 (OT)

Adjusted Yards per Play: 4.31 – St. Louis, 4.35 – San Francisco

AY/P Projected Point Totals: St. Louis 20.93, San Francisco 22.06

Quick Thought: How hilarious would it have been if Legatron had missed that field goal with 26 seconds left in OT? The thought of the same two teams playing to a tie TWICE in the same season would have been enough to make Donovan McNabb’s head explode. Amazingly, this has actually happened before, to the Steelers and Eagles in 1963. Of course, back then you didn’t play overtime at the end of regulation in the regular season; you just picked yourself up, kissed your sister, and moved on with your life. A measure of respect is due for the 49ers and Rams for trying to accomplish the impossible. Their attempt to make the tie fashionable again is something that we can all attempt to avoid in our own lives.

New England 23, Miami 16

Adjusted Yards per Play: 4.16 – New England, 4.19 – Miami

AY/P Projected Point Totals: New England 22.58, Miami 17.66

Quick Thought: Congratulations, New England! You’ve just won your ninth game of the year. Against a division opponent on the road, no less! What are your thoughts on this momentous occasion, Coach Belichick? “It’s always good to win.” All right, but you also clinched your fourth straight AFC East title in the process as well! Isn’t that exciting, Coach? “It’s good to be back in the postseason.” Uh, okay, thanks for your thoughts, Bill.

Cincinnati 20, San Diego 13

Adjusted Yards per Play: 3.32 – Cincinnati, 3.21 – San Diego

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Cincinnati 17.07, San Diego 14.45

Quick Thought: The listed attendance at Qualcomm Stadium yesterday was 54,980 and unless a good 20,000 of those attendees were disguised as blue seats, I think that figure might be a tad optimistic. Here’s my plan on how to restore sellouts to Charger home games.

1. Fire Norv Turner.

And we’re there.

Dallas 38, Philadelphia 33

Adjusted Yards per Play: 8.02 – Dallas, 7.10 – Philadelphia

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Dallas 35.52, Philadelphia 30.94

Quick Thought: This may have been purely coincidental, but right after Al Michaels finished one of his promo spiels from early in the game, he enthusiastically said “OH YEAH” as footage of dancing Cowboys cheerleaders was shown on-screen. For some reason, this was nearly as hilarious as his intentional comedy last week regarding over/unders. Al’s on some sort of streak lately, I’m tellin’ ya.

Houston 24, Tennessee 10

Adjusted Yards per Play: 5.60 – Houston, 1.31 – Tennessee

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Houston 28.00, Tennessee 6.36

Quick Thought: Wanna know a good way to get blown out when you average a half-yard more per play than your opponent (5.2 to 4.7)? Turning the ball over six times usually does the trick. This probably occurred because the Titans fired offensive coordinator Chris Palmer last week and replaced him with someone called Dowell Loggains. That just sounds like the name of a demolition derby driver, doesn’t it? 

Buffalo 34, Jacksonville 18

Adjusted Yards per Play: 6.02 – Buffalo, 2.87 – Jacksonville

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Buffalo 27.09, Jacksonville 12.92

Quick Thought: So Chad Henne’s NOT going to average over ten yards an attempt EVERY week? That’s it, time to go back to Gabbert.

NY Jets 7, Arizona 6

Adjusted Yards per Play: 1.68 – NY Jets, 1.70 – Arizona

AY/P Projected Point Totals: NY Jets 8.88, Arizona 6.56

Quick Thought: OH. MY. WORD. You poor NYC metropolitan area folks. If you didn’t have DirecTV or the Red Zone Channel, you were stuck with that monstrosity of a contest as your only early game, forced to watch Mark Sanchez attempt the dubious achievement of completing more passes to the opposing team than to his own. At least the Jets won, though. How does it feel to be the Arizona defense and know that you HAVE to shut out the other team in order to have any chance? Of course, Ken Whisenhunt says his offense’s struggles are all okay because: “Make no mistake. They want to win.” Glad we cleared that up! Feel free to go on strike, Cardinal defense. You’ve earned it.

Kansas City 27, Carolina 21

Adjusted Yards per Play: 6.19 – Kansas City, 8.73 – Carolina

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Kansas City 29.62, Carolina 31.80

Quick Thought: Thoughts and prayers go out to the families of Kasandra Perkins and Jovan Belcher.

Cleveland 20, Oakland 17

Adjusted Yards per Play: 6.34 – Cleveland, 5.89 – Oakland

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Cleveland 30.34, Oakland 30.29

Quick Thought: Raider Empty Yard Update: Carson Palmer’s still, remarkably, on pace to throw for over 4700 yards. Oakland’s offense as a whole still has an outside shot at 6,000 yards. And they’re still scoring few than 20 points a game. Will Carson Palmer become the first quarterback to ever throw for 4700 yards in one season and then be cut in the offseason? This intrepid reporter is certainly rooting for it!

Week 11 Power Rankings: It’s a Chicken Stuffed Inside a Duck Stuffed Inside a Turkey! Boom!

Welcome to the Week 11 edition of Someone Still Loves You Alberto Riveron’s weekly NFL power rankings. To help us make sense of what happened during this last batch of NFL action, we’ve asked the turducken that will be served at Hall of Fame coach John Madden’s home for Thanksgiving to share its thoughts with us below. Please enjoy.

Well…it’s that time of year again, right? The time where my feathered brethren brace themselves for the inevitable reign of terror that will separate fathers from sons and caruncles from secondary coverts. Did you know the average turkey’s lifespan is ten years? I find that remarkable, particularly when you consider how many of us get MURDERED EVERY NOVEMBER SO YOU HUMANS CAN GET YOUR JOLLIES FROM US AND MAKE UNBELIEVABLY FOUL-SMELLING FARTS. Sorry, I’m just a little on edge right now. You would be, too, if you had less than forty-eight hours to live. Now I know what death row inmates feel like. I watched The Green Mile a couple of years ago to try and prepare, but it was no help at all. That Michael Clarke Duncan was full of crap (may he rest in peace, obviously).

I suppose I’m supposed to feel some sort of honor for being chosen for John Madden’s meal this Thursday. Back at the farm, the perceived pecking order of honor amongst all my birds was the White House, then Betty White, then Madden. He’s obviously done a lot to, uh, “popularize” our species, shall we say. Growing up, I never really worried about being chosen for anybody’s Thanksgiving feast. I was a little runt who was always getting picked on by the other strutting toms, but that was okay. Unless a dirt poor family from the inner-city was willing to take a chance on me, I was scott-free; at worst, I would turn into sandwich meat and there’s at least a quiet dignity about being the linchpin of a solid BLT. But then it happened. A growth spurt struck. I just couldn’t stop growing, man. I wanted to starve myself so bad, but then I’d see more corn and oats being placed in front of me and then I’d frolick around for a few minutes because I was SO HAPPY and then I’d stuff my face some more. Never once did I recognize the predicament I was putting myself in.

So I grew. And grew. And grew and grew and grew until I was well over 30 pounds and unable to peck at other turkey’s snoods. The writing was on the wall at that point. I was just hoping whoever bought me would have the decency to avoid shoving the turkey thermometer into my bones. But things turned out much worse than I could even imagine. When I first saw Pauline and Jebediah – the duck and chicken who are now wedged firmly up my gastric passageway – I thought to myself, “Outstanding! Friends I can spend my final hours with!” Of course, I didn’t exactly expect to get this close to them. Imagine Verne Troyer getting stuffed into Kerri Strug getting stuffed into John Goodman. Would doing so make John Goodman approximately 40% plumper and delectable? OF COURSE BUT WHAT’S THE POINT WHEN JOHN GOODMAN IS ALREADY BIG ENOUGH FOR TWENTY PEOPLE TO GET THEIR FILL OFF OF HIM? Sorry, sorry. I’m going through some stuff right now.

So now I sit here in John Madden’s freezer, awaiting my cursed fate. And you don’t even know what the worst part is yet. Every night, Madden pulls me out of the freezer, sets me on the kitchen table, and starts lovingly caressing me and making random grunting moments at very inopportune times. He’ll talk to me about “you know who would have really had a lot of fun eating you, Mr. Turducken? BRETT FAVRE. When you’re talking about guys who were always there and available and willing to eat their fair share of turducken, BRETT FAVRE’S right at the top of the list. BRETT FAVRE was always there to help me do BRETT FAVRE things. BRETT FAVRE…Brett Favre…brett favre…” And then he’ll fall asleep cradling me in his arms. It’s the creepiest thing I’ve ever seen. This is what I have to look forward to for the next two days. Happy Thanksgiving, you monsters.

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A quick thought on Monday Night’s game…

San Francisco 32, Chicago 7

Adjusted Yards per Play: 7.69 – San Francisco, 1.30 – Chicago

AY/P Projected Point Totals: San Francisco 29.66, Chicago 5.20

Quick Thought: That was…fun. I’m sure all of you are aware of this already after watching him play last night and hearing Jon Gruden hyperventilate over him, but holy crap was Colin Kaepernick impressive. He was showing touch on deep throws, great arm strength on stick throws, the great athleticism we already knew he had…I mean, the Bears pass defense in the first nine games of this season was virtually inpenetrable and he went over ten Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt against it. Just phenomenal. Other than the one game a month they seem to take off, the 49ers have looked like the clear best team in the league and if Kaepernick can approximate that level of performance for the rest of the season…oh crap. As for the Bears, my personal hope as a fan is that they can reach double-digits in points against Minnesota. SUCH LOFTY ASPIRATIONS.

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Here’s SSLYAR’s Week 11 rankings by Adjusted Yards per Play Differential, which is a descriptive metric that is designed to give an accurate representation of how each team has played thus far. As you might expect, San Francisco is still #1 after last night’s pummeling of the Bears. New England hits their high point of the season at #2 after thrashing the Colts; Indianapolis is now ranked 31st in this metric, even with their 6-4 overall record. Washington is the biggest riser of the week, going from #14 to #9; despite gutting out a victory against the Cardinals, Atlanta takes the biggest tumble, going from #8 to #12.

Adjusted Yards per Play Differential (league average: 0.00)

1. San Francisco: 2.49 (last week: 1, high–>low: 1–>11)
2. New England: 1.60 (last week: 5, high–>low: 2–>8)
3. Houston: 1.55 (last week: 2, high–>low: 1–>5)
4. Denver: 1.33 (last week: 6, high–>low: 4–>19)
5. Baltimore: 1.28 (last week: 4, high–>low: 1–>9)
6. Chicago: 0.95 (last week: 3, high–>low: 1–>14)
7. Green Bay: 0.91 (last week: 9, high–>low: 7–>22)
8. Tampa Bay: 0.87 (last week: 7, high–>low: 7–>29)
9. Washington: 0.79 (last week: 14, high–>low: 5–>15)
10. NY Giants: 0.75 (last week: 11, high–>low: 4–>26)
11. Seattle: 0.67 (last week: 12, high–>low: 11–>19)
12. Atlanta: 0.65 (last week: 8, high–>low: 1–>12)
13. Pittsburgh: 0.59 (last week: 10, high–>low: 8–>24)
14. Cincinnati: 0.29 (last week: 16, high–>low: 14–>32)
15. Detroit: 0.14 (last week: 13, high–>low: 11–>22)
16. Carolina: 0.01 (last week: 17, high–>low: 9–>23)
17. Minnesota: -0.03 (last week: 15, high–>low: 7–>17)
18. New Orleans: -0.09 (last week: 20, high–>low: 18–>29)
19. Arizona: -0.26 (last week: 21, high–>low: 10–>21)
20. Dallas: -0.40 (last week: 19, high–>low: 7–>23)
21. San Diego: -0.41 (last week: 18, high–>low: 7–>25)
22. Cleveland: -0.47 (last week: 23, high–>low: 20–>27)
23. NY Jets: -0.58 (last week: 25, high–>low: 12–>30)
24. St. Louis: -0.77 (last week: 22, high–>low: 16–>28)
25. Miami: -0.97 (last week: 24, high–>low: 18–>31)
26. Tennessee: -0.99 (last week: 28, high–>low: 26–>31)
27. Buffalo: -1.14 (last week: 30, high–>low: 5–>30)
28. Oakland: -1.15 (last week: 27, high–>low: 16–>28)
29. Philadelphia: -1.50 (last week: 26, high–>low: 8–>29)
30. Jacksonville: -1.56 (last week: 31, high–>low: 23–>31)
31. Indianapolis: -1.58 (last week: 29, high–>low: 27–>31)
32. Kansas City: -2.85 (last week: 32, high–>low: 30–>32)

Offensive Adjusted Yards per Play (league average: 4.98)

1. New England: 6.38 (last week: 2, high–>low: 1–>12)
2. New Orleans: 6.32 (last week: 3, high–>low: 2–>22)
3. San Francisco: 6.25 (last week: 4, high–>low: 1–>12)
4. Tampa Bay: 6.22 (last week: 1, high–>low: 1–>29)
5. Washington: 6.19 (last week: 6, high–>low: 1–>6)
6. Baltimore: 5.70 (last week: 7, high–>low: 1–>9)
7. Houston: 5.62 (last week: 10, high–>low: 6–>11)
8. Atlanta: 5.60 (last week: 5, high–>low: 2–>9)
9. Green Bay: 5.58 (last week: 8, high–>low: 6–>24)
10. Denver: 5.45 (last week: 9, high–>low: 10–>23)
11. NY Giants: 5.40 (last week: 12, high–>low: 1–>17)
12. Detroit: 5.20 (last week: 11, high–>low: 9–>18)
13. Cincinnati: 5.19 (last week: 14, high–>low: 7–>25)
14. Pittsburgh: 5.06 (last week: 13, high–>low: 9–>24)
15. Oakland: 4.92 (last week: 17, high–>low: 10–>23)
16. Minnesota: 4.88 (last week: 18, high–>low: 9–>24)
17. Buffalo: 4.87 (last week: 15, high–>low: 5–>20)
18. Tennessee: 4.86 (last week: 20, high–>low: 14–>27)
19. Indianapolis: 4.83 (last week: 16, high–>low: 16–>28)
20. Carolina: 4.81 (last week: 22, high–>low: 4–>22)
21. Seattle: 4.74 (last week: 23, high–>low: 21–>30)
22. Dallas: 4.72 (last week: 21, high–>low: 3–>25)
23. St. Louis: 4.65 (last week: 19, high–>low: 13–>28)
24. Cleveland: 4.35 (last week: 26, high–>low: 23–>32)
25. San Diego: 4.25 (last week: 24, high–>low: 9–>28)
26. Chicago: 4.12 (last week: 25, high–>low: 6–>30)
27. Jacksonville: 4.07 (last week: 31, high–>low: 16–>31)
28. NY Jets: 4.03 (last week: 29, high–>low: 8–>32)
29. Miami: 4.02 (last week: 27, high–>low: 19–>31)
30. Philadelphia: 3.97 (last week: 28, high–>low: 26–>32)
31. Arizona: 3.72 (last week: 30, high–>low: 26–>32)
32. Kansas City: 3.25 (last week: 32, high–>low: 20–>32)

Defensive Adjusted Yards per Play (league average: 4.98)

1. Chicago: 3.17 (last week: 1, high–>low: 1–>5)
2. San Francisco: 3.76 (last week: 3, high–>low: 2–>20)
3. Arizona: 3.97 (last week: 6, high–>low: 2–>6)
4. Seattle: 4.07 (last week: 4, high–>low: 4–>7)
5. Houston: 4.08 (last week: 2, high–>low: 1–>5)
6. Denver: 4.13 (last week: 5, high–>low: 5–>20)
7. Baltimore: 4.42 (last week: 8, high–>low: 7–>16)
8. Pittsburgh: 4.47 (last week: 7, high–>low: 7–>23)
9. NY Jets: 4.61 (last week: 11, high–>low: 9–>21)
10. NY Giants: 4.66 (last week: 10, high–>low: 8–>30)
11. San Diego: 4.66 (last week: 9, high–>low: 6–>17)
12. Green Bay: 4.68 (last week: 13, high–>low: 7–>28)
13. New England: 4.78 (last week: 12, high–>low: 3–>14)
14. Carolina: 4.80 (last week: 14, high–>low: 12–>26)
15. Cleveland: 4.82 (last week: 16, high–>low: 4–>21)
16. Cincinnati: 4.89 (last week: 17, high–>low: 16–>32)
17. Minnesota: 4.91 (last week: 15, high–>low: 6–>17)
18. Atlanta: 4.95 (last week: 21, high–>low: 3–>21)
19. Miami: 4.99 (last week: 18, high–>low: 8–>23)
20. Detroit: 5.07 (last week: 19, high–>low: 12–>23)
21. Dallas: 5.12 (last week: 22, high–>low: 7–>22)
22. Tampa Bay: 5.36 (last week: 23, high–>low: 15–>26)
23. Washington: 5.39 (last week: 27, high–>low: 11–>27)
24. St. Louis: 5.42 (last week: 24, high–>low: 8–>24)
25. Philadelphia: 5.47 (last week: 20, high–>low: 1–>25)
26. Jacksonville: 5.63 (last week: 25, high–>low: 24–>27)
27. Tennessee: 5.85 (last week: 26, Week 1: 26–>30)
28. Buffalo: 6.01 (last week: 31, high–>low: 12–>32)
29. Oakland: 6.07 (last week: 28, Week 1: 19–>31)
30. Kansas City: 6.10 (last week: 29, Week 1: 27–>32)
31. Indianapolis: 6.41 (last week: 30, high–>low: 24–>31)
32. New Orleans: 6.41 (last week: 32, Week 1: 28–>32)

SSLYAR also ranks teams according to Predictive Yards per Play Differential, a metric which doesn’t give as large a penalty or bonus to turnovers or touchdowns, will also take into account strength of schedule and will (theoretically) better able to predict future performance. This metric uses probabilities drawn from research Brian Burke did back in 2008 in trying to determine which stats best correlated with future play. For example, because offensive performance is much more consistent from week-to-week than defensive performance, offensive play is more highly prioritized in these rankings.

Denver’s stay at the top of the list was short-lived; San Francisco is back at #1 with their highest rating since Week 5. They’re pretty good. Finding the biggest risers and fallers this week is pretty simple; Chicago and Washington swap the #10 and #16 slots in the rankings as a result of those two teams’ offenses moving in completely opposite directions. And, yes, that is 2-8 Carolina making their highest appearance of the season at #5. They’ve accrued 5.6 yards per play on offense and only given up 5.3 on defense and, more importantly, have faced just an absolutely brutal schedule so far. The lowest ranked team they’ve played so far is Atlanta and they happen to 9-1 – a supremely lucky 9-1, but 9-1 nonetheless. The Panthers’ schedule gets considerably easier the rest of the way, so expect them to continue to shoot themselves in the foot and kill a high draft position by actually winning a few games.

Predictive Yards per Play Differential (league average: 0.993514)

1. San Francisco: 2.062202 (last week: 2, high–>low: 1–>3)
2. Denver: 1.774129 (last week: 1, high–>low: 1–>6)
3. Seattle: 1.472313 (last week: 4, high–>low: 3–>16)
4. Green Bay: 1.422153 (last week: 3, high–>low: 3–>20)
5. Carolina: 1.386601 (last week: 6, high–>low: 5–>18)
6. New England: 1.366331 (last week: 9, high–>low: 5–>13)
7. Detroit: 1.303104 (last week: 8, high–>low: 5–>10)
8. Houston: 1.285282 (last week: 5, high–>low: 2–>12)
9. NY Giants: 1.251091 (last week: 12, high–>low: 3–>12)
10. Washington: 1.192994 (last week: 16, high–>low: 10–>18)
11. Dallas: 1.191229 (last week: 7, high–>low: 2–>17)
12. St. Louis: 1.160336 (last week: 11, high–>low: 11–>28)
13. Baltimore: 1.120054 (last week: 13, high–>low: 1–>13)
14. Minnesota: 1.071496 (last week: 17, high–>low: 9–>18)
15. Tampa Bay: 1.045433 (last week: 14, high–>low: 13–>30)
16. Chicago: 1.044369 (last week: 10, high–>low: 2–>16)
17. New Orleans: 0.978153 (last week: 15, high–>low: 15–>23)
18. Cincinnati: 0.966672 (last week: 19, high–>low: 8–>24)
19. Atlanta: 0.933458 (last week: 18, high–>low: 4–>20)
20. Buffalo: 0.914478 (last week: 20, high–>low: 14–>27)
21. Pittsburgh: 0.89261 (last week: 23, high–>low: 14–>24)
22. Tennessee: 0.823587 (last week: 22, high–>low: 21–>26)
23. NY Jets: 0.784685 (last week: 24, high–>low: 19–>32)
24. Arizona: 0.75249 (last week: 25, high–>low: 23–>26)
25. Philadelphia: 0.656491 (last week: 21, high–>low: 10–>25)
26. Oakland: 0.587583 (last week: 26, high–>low: 19–>26)
27. Indianapolis: 0.533318 (last week: 28, high–>low: 17–>28)
28. Cleveland: 0.492446 (last week: 30, high–>low: 28–>30)
29. San Diego: 0.456371 (last week: 29, high–>low: 22–>30)
30. Miami: 0.417673 (last week: 27, high–>low: 11–>30)
31. Jacksonville: 0.385457 (last week: 31, high–>low: 31–>32)
32. Kansas City: 0.048333 (last week: 32, high–>low: 27–>32)

Offensive Predictive Yards per Play (league average: 2.845043)

1. San Francisco: 3.451714 (last week: 6, high–>low: 1–>13)
2. New Orleans: 3.295895 (last week: 2, high–>: 2–>11)
3. New England: 3.285108 (last week: 9, high–>low: 3–>9)
4. Washington: 3.243992 (last week: 8, high–>low: 2–>8)
5. NY Giants: 3.233673 (last week: 5, high–>low: 1–>5)
6. Denver: 3.19756 (last week: 4, high–>low: 3–>12)
7. Green Bay: 3.184719 (last week: 1, high–>low: 1–>22)
8. Detroit: 3.184353 (last week: 3, high–>low: 3–>11)
9. Tampa Bay: 3.175174 (last week: 7, high–>low: 7–>26)
10. Buffalo: 3.026949 (last week: 11, high–>low: 9–>15)
11. Dallas: 3.019975 (last week: 12, high–>low: 5–>20)
12. Atlanta: 2.998792 (last week: 13, high–>low: 4–>16)
13. Baltimore: 2.977293 (last week: 10, high–>low: 1–>13)
14. Carolina: 2.972747 (last week: 15, high–>low: 7–>17)
15. Houston: 2.961446 (last week: 19, high–>low: 10–>19)
16. St. Louis: 2.957134 (last week: 14, high–>low: 14–>28)
17. Seattle: 2.950527 (last week: 16, high–>low: 15–>25)
18. Cincinnati: 2.940827 (last week: 17, high–>low: 6–>20)
19. Tennessee: 2.877564 (last week: 18, high–>low: 14–>24)
20. Minnesota: 2.832001 (last week: 21, high–>low: 20–>25)
21. Oakland: 2.822446 (last week: 20, high–>low: 12–>21)
22. Indianapolis: 2.761728 (last week: 22, high–>low: 11–>24)
23. NY Jets: 2.595679 (last week: 25, high–>low: 23–>31)
24. Chicago: 2.532286 (last week: 23, high–>low: 10–>24)
25. Philadelphia: 2.478494 (last week: 24, high–>low: 19–>27)
26. Pittsburgh: 2.447404 (last week: 26, high–>low: 17–>26)
27. Arizona: 2.3799 (last week: 28, high–>low: 27–>32)
28. Jacksonville: 2.330883 (last week: 31, high–>low: 28–>32)
29. Cleveland: 2.301705 (last week: 30, high–>low: 27–>30)
30. San Diego: 2.235204 (last week: 29, high–>low: 27–>31)
31. Miami: 2.207207 (last week: 27, high–>low: 16–>31)
32. Kansas City: 2.111793 (last week: 32, high–>low: 24–>32)

Defensive Predictive Yards per Play (league average: 1.85153)

1. San Francisco: 1.389512 (last week: 5, high–>low: 1–>5)
2. Denver: 1.423431 (last week: 3, high–>low: 2–>11)
3. Seattle: 1.478214 (last week: 4, high–>low: 2–>6)
4. Chicago: 1.487917 (last week: 1, high–>low: 1–>5)
5. Pittsburgh: 1.554793 (last week: 7, high–>low: 4–>20)
6. Carolina: 1.586146 (last week: 6, high–>low: 6–>25)
7. Arizona: 1.62741 (last week: 8, high–>low: 6–>10)
8. Houston: 1.676164 (last week: 2, high–>low: 2–>11)
9. Minnesota: 1.760505 (last week: 11, high–>low: 3–>13)
10. Green Bay: 1.762566 (last week: 16, high–>low: 10–>17)
11. San Diego: 1.778833 (last week: 12, high–>low: 10–>17)
12. Miami: 1.789534 (last week: 15, high–>low: 8–>15)
13. St. Louis: 1.796798 (last week: 14, high–>low: 8–>18)
14. Cleveland: 1.809259 (last week: 13, high–>low: 13–>22)
15. NY Jets: 1.810994 (last week: 18, high–>low: 11–>21)
16. Philadelphia: 1.822003 (last week: 9, high–>low: 5–>16)
17. Dallas: 1.828746 (last week: 10, high–>low: 6–>17)
18. Baltimore: 1.857239 (last week: 20, high–>low: 12–>20)
19. Detroit: 1.881249 (last week: 21, high–>low: 10–>21)
20. New England: 1.918777 (last week: 17, high–>low: 16–>21)
21. Jacksonville: 1.945426 (last week: 19. high–>low: 16–>24)
22. Cincinnati: 1.974156 (last week: 22, high–>low: 21–>28)
23. NY Giants: 1.982581 (last week: 23, high–>low: 23–>32)
24. Washington: 2.050997 (last week: 28, high–>low: 24–>32)
25. Tennessee: 2.053977 (last week: 25, high–>low: 25–>27)
26. Kansas City: 2.06346 (last week: 24, high–>low: 22–>30)
27. Atlanta: 2.065334 (last week: 26, high–>low: 14–>27)
28. Buffalo: 2.112472 (last week: 30, high–>low: 23–>32)
29. Tampa Bay: 2.129741 (last week: 27, high–>low: 19–>29)
30. Indianapolis: 2.22841 (last week: 31, high–>low: 24–>31)
31. Oakland: 2.234863 (last week: 29, high–>low: 23–>31)
32. New Orleans: 2.317742 (last week: 32, high–>low: 30–>32)

Week 11 Quick Thoughts

Scattered stats and thoughts regarding Week 11 of the 2012 NFL Season…

Baltimore 13, Pittsburgh 10

Adjusted Yards per Play: 3.51 – Baltimore, 2.70 – Pittsburgh

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Baltimore 14.29, Pittsburgh 13.31

Quick Thoughts:

1. First of all, I’d like to start out today’s post by asking the Steelers WHY IN GOD’S NAME DID YOU BREAK OUT THE BUMBLEBEE UNIFORMS AGAIN????? Jeez, I thought we were done with those forever after the game against the Redskins, but apparently you good Pittsburgh folk can’t get enough of jaundiced prison garb from America’s happiest time period – the Great Depression. I wrote about some of the worst uniforms of all time in my Seahawks preview back in August. Obviously, these Steelers throwbacks qualify for inclusion in that list; the only question is, how high do they rank in the Ugly Jersey Pantheon? Surprisingly, after looking over some of those other duds a second time, I’m gonna say the Worst Jersey of All Time (WJOAT) title is still safe. The Broncos and Eagles throwbacks from a few years ago are equally abominable, if not more so, and lest we forget, the Seahawks did actually wear these jerseys once upon a time. Unless a team decides to show up for a game wearing only leopard print thongs and Renaissance Fair capes, nothing’s topping that. Dishonorable mention to the Steelers for trying, however.

2. Byron Leftwich’s chug-a-lugging 31-yard touchdown run on the opening drive of the game was one of the highlights of the season so far, even for a Steelers hater such as myself. Leftwich showed “remarkable agility for a man his size” (copyright Mark Murphy 2010) – a development that so shocked the Ravens, they decided to just part the Red Sea for him and (in Bernard Pollard’s case, literally)regroup on the sidelines for the next possession. And regroup they did. The run took so much out of Leftwich that he was unable to fire any fastballs the rest of the game even with that thirty-second windup of his and the Steelers only got one more field goal the rest of the game. But you’ll always have that run, Byron. You’ll always have that run…

3. Meanwhile, Baltimore proved that scoring offensive touchdowns is highly overrated, as they rode Jacoby Jones’ punt return touchdown and two Justin Tucker field goals to victory. It was Jones’ third kick return touchdown of the season, an achievement that will make his eventual two muffed punts in the playoffs all the more painful. Is it possible that Baltimore may eventually have to find a way to score points offensively on the road in order to win in the playoffs? Perhaps. Is it more possible that they’ll poison Houston’s pre-game meal in the divisional round so that the Texans will be too, ahem, “occupied” to focus on their actual opponent and the Ravens will never have to leave M&T Bank Stadium? I SAY YES.

New England 59, Indianapolis 24

Adjusted Yards per Play: 9.10 – New England, 4.31 – Indianapolis

AY/P Projected Point Totals: New England 39.00, Indianapolis 23.09

Quick Thought: A Pyrrhic victory for the Patriots, who lost Gronk to a broken forearm on the last extra point try of the game. Even worse: Gronk probably doesn’t quite understand what a Pyrrhic victory is. GRONK HEARKEN BACK TO LEARNING DAYS WHERE GRONK LEARN THAT VICTORY MEAN THAT GRONK WINNER AND PRETTY LADIES WANT PARTY WITH GRONK. THIS MEAN GRONK OUCHIE BOO-BOO ALL BETTER! YAY FOR GRONK! *raises arm in the air in celebration* AHHHH! AHHHH! THIS NOT CASE AT ALL! GRONK PAIN IMMENSE! AHHHHHHHHH!

Green Bay 24, Detroit 20

Adjusted Yards per Play: 5.24 – Green Bay, 3.12 – Detroit

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Green Bay 22.08, Detroit 15.15

Quick Thought: Matthew Stafford couldn’t hit the broad side of a barn yesterday. He made Rick Ankiel circa 2000 look like Greg Maddux circa 1994. Even his touchdown throw to Megatron should have been picked by Morgan Burnett, only the ghost of Charlie Peprah momentarily possessed Burnett and he hilariously mistimed his jump. Other than that, if you’re consistently overthrowing Megatron by five feet, you may have some issues.

Denver 30, San Diego 23

Adjusted Yards per Play: 5.01 – Denver, 2.64 – San Diego

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Denver 25.05, San Diego 12.63

Quick Thought: One of many devastating late covers that victimized my Pigskin Pick ‘Em record yesterday. Tampa Bay’s crazy comeback against Carolina had me threatening physical violence against all those around me, but Phil Rivers’ garbage-time touchdown to Danario Alexander wasn’t much better. CAN’T YOU SEE? THE BALL HIT THE GROUND AND WAS MOVING IN HIS HAND!! THAT’S AN INCOMPLETION IF I EVER SAW ONE!!! UNLESS I HAD PICKED THE CHARGERS!!!! IN WHICH CASE, IT WOULD HAVE DEFINITELY BEEN A TOUCHDOWN!!!!!

Tampa Bay 27, Carolina 21 (OT)

Adjusted Yards per Play: 4.20 – Tampa Bay, 5.71 – Carolina

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Tampa Bay 23.10, Carolina 26.51

Quick Thought: No team is better at consistently outplaying their opponent and still finding a way to lose than Carolina. Really, their tireless dedication to grasping defeat from the jaws of victory is inspiring, in a way. And in another way, it makes me want to PUNCH RON RIVERA IN THE GROIN AND ASK JERRY RICHARDSON IF HE KNOWS HOW TO READ A FREAKING REVENUE CHART, YOU OLD POMPOUS WINDBAG. I’ve really got to stop picking the Panthers.

Atlanta 23, Arizona 19

Adjusted Yards per Play: 1.39 – Atlanta, 2.64 – Arizona

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Atlanta 7.05, Arizona 10.56

Quick Thought: It’s not often that you throw five interceptions in a game and yet are still CLEARLY the best quarterback on the field that day. But then again, Matt Ryan always has a huge horseshoe shoved up his sphincter, so we probably should have seen this coming. Ryan Lindley and John Skelton combined for 41 passing yards on 30 dropbacks yesterday for a robust 1.37 Net Yards per Attempt. Even the ’77 Bucs are snickering at that. Ken Whisenhunt sure knows how to pick quarterbacks not named Kurt Warner, doesn’t he?

New Orleans 38, Oakland 17

Adjusted Yards per Play: 8.25 – New Orleans, 5.13 – Oakland

AY/P Projected Point Totals: New Orleans 33.00, Oakland 25.28

Quick Thought: Empty Raider Yards Alert: Oakland got 404 yards of offense yesterday – 312 of that coming through the air, courtesy of Carson Palmer – and figured out how to score only 17 points. How amazing would it be if Palmer hit the 5,000 yard mark this season and Oakland ended up scoring less than 300 points? WHERE THERE’S A WILL THERE’S A WAY.

Dallas 23, Cleveland 20 (OT)

Adjusted Yards per Play: 3.97 – Dallas, 4.30 – Cleveland

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Dallas 22.12, Cleveland 21.50

Quick Thought: Dallas has played thoroughly uninspiring ball the past two weeks and yet somehow come out with victories in both games. Maybe this should be their blueprint going forward? Make terrible, green quarterbacks like Nick Foles and Brandon Weeden look like NFL-quality starters, leave Tony Romo to run around like a chicken with its head and one of its legs cut off, and commit at least six penalties of the brain-dead variety a game. THIS IS HOW YOU WIN GAMES IN THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE.

NY Jets 27, St. Louis 13

Adjusted Yards per Play: 5.37 – NY Jets, 2.71 – St. Louis

AY/P Projected Point Totals: NY Jets 24.93, St. Louis 12.58

Quick Thought: Obviously the tie with San Francisco last week took so much out of the Rams that they really had to reevaluate things and figure out what was important in life. And after much soul-searching and reflection, Jeff Fisher and his staff decided that they would only stand for absolute outcomes the rest of the season. None of this “doesn’t feel like a loss, but definitely doesn’t feel like win” wishy-washy tripe. Either go all out for a win or just suck it up and take the loss. This week apparently, they thought a loss would be easier.

Washington 31, Philadelphia 6

Adjusted Yards per Play: 8.65 – Washington, 1.65 – Philadelphia

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Washington 31.51, Philadelphia 8.37

Quick Thought: The Thanksgiving Day slate of games this year is a little underwhelming. Texans-Lions is okay, but the Lions’ inability to win a game against the NFC North has basically rendered them playoff spoilers at this point. And Patriots-Jets is always entertaining if only for the Mark Sanchez schadenfreude, but we would need nothing short of a Tebow fourth-quarter comeback for that thing to be a potential classic. Thank goodness, then, that RGIII is making an appearance in the middle game of the day. The rest of Turkey Day may be filled with lopsided gorging and grotesque feats of girth – and possibly some football on top of that – but at least there’s one shining star who’s got the potential to turn his game into a classic.

Houston 43, Jacksonville 37 (OT)

Adjusted Yards per Play: 6.52 – Houston, 7.39 – Jacksonville

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Houston 42.85, Jacksonville 34.84

Quick Thought: Before he finished the game 2-for-12 for 23 yards, Chad Henne started his day in relief of Blaine Gabbert going 14-of-21 for 331 yards and 4 touchdowns against one of the best defenses in the league. HOLY CRAP. Do you think he’s got a shot at the starting job in Jacksonville?

Cincinnati 28, Kansas City 6

Adjusted Yards per Play: 7.09 – Cincinnati, 3.90 – Kansas City

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Cincinnati 34.94, Kansas City 16.71

Quick Thought: On the bright side, Kansas City, you only turned the ball over once yesterday. That’s just two turnovers the past two weeks! Baby steps! In other news: A.J. Green is pretty good.

Week 10 Quick Thoughts

Scattered stats and thoughts regarding Week 10 of the 2012 NFL Season…

Houston 13, Chicago 6

Adjusted Yards per Play: 2.34 – Houston, 1.05 – Chicago

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Houston 10.36, Chicago 4.02

Quick Thoughts:

1. Ah, there’s nothing like crazy, CRAZY November weather in Chicago to bring out the best in two excellent defenses. As the rain swirled and temperature plunged from the 70 degree high from earlier in the day down towards the upper 20s low it would hit overnight, neither the Texans nor the Bears had much of a chance offensively last night. Matt Schaub had a better chance of getting Taylor Swift’s number than he did properly gripping the ball. And the Bears’ backs and receivers did their best all night to make it seem like the ball was excessively covered in lubricrated animal fat. Ultimately, it was the Texans’ second-quarter drive in which they got one step ahead of the Bears in running their stretch play with Arian Foster and Schaub and Foster teamed up for a phenomenal touchdown throw and catch that turned out to be the difference. More than anything, though, this game brought up the question: what would happen if the ’85 Bears played the ’00 Ravens in a hurricane? Hopefully this is a question WhatIfSports.com can answer.

2. To reiterate: these are two CHAMPIONSHIP LEVEL DEFENSES. Houston has successfully fought off any regression that might have been expected after last season’s suprise defensive improvement and may actually be better this season. The only real weakness to pinpoint for future opponents would be exposing their linebackers in pass coverage; the Bears actually had receivers open down the middle several times last night but, because of the combination of rain and Kellen Davis, couldn’t actually capitalize. If the Texans face a team with an actual NFL tight end, they could have some issues. And as for the Bears, I’m going to go on record as saying this is the best Bears defense of the Lovie Smith era. The biggest reason why? Charles Tillman and Tim Jennings are, shockingly, the best pair of cornerbacks in the league currently and have been leaving quarterbacks zero margin for error on throws to the outside. What was often the biggest weakness in the Bears’ defense is now an inarguable strength. Now if Jennings can just do some double duty and play wide receiver, too…

3. Finally, I’d like to be allowed one irrational fan paragraph as a Bears fan to extend a hearty SCREW YOU to Tim Dobbins for his post-game comments in which he not only denied that he hit Jay Cutler in the head but also said he was glad to see Smokin’ Jay concussed. “I know I just hit him in the chest. I did not touch his helmet.” This is partially true, Tim. You did hit him in the chest. YOU ALSO FREAKING LAUNCHED YOURSELF INTO HIS FREAKING HELMET. Perhaps that’s the strange clanging sound you heard when you were “really trying to hit him up high so he would mess up the throw as well.” Of course, even though we all know you COULDN’T POSSIBLY HAVE BEEN THE REASON he was concussed, it doesn’t really bother you either way because “it was good that (Cutler) was out…You always want to take the quarterback out of the game.” Ugh. Just man up and say you were trying to bash his brains in. You’d at least be telling the truth that way.

Minnesota 34, Detroit 24

Adjusted Yards per Play: 6.81 – Minnesota, 5.46 – Detroit

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Minnesota 33.08, Detroit 23.79

Quick Thought: Christian Ponder completed a pass to himself in the first half, thanks to a deflection by Cliff Avril and outstanding reflexes on ‘ol CP’s part. Unfortunately, Avril was right there to tackle Ponder for a fifteen-yard loss. Brad Johnson, he is not!

New Orleans 31, Atlanta 27

Adjusted Yards per Play: 7.66 – New Orleans, 6.61 – Atlanta

AY/P Projected Point Totals: New Orleans 33.92, Atlanta 33.52

Quick Thought: Atlanta’s defense is horsecrap if they’re not forcing turnovers. You could consider this a problem for a supposed Super Bowl contender to have. However, they could have still extended the game if Tony Gonzalez hadn’t had the first drop of his career on that fourth-and-one at the end of the game. I’m still in shock over that. It’s basically the equivalent of fall following winter or Kevin James winning an Oscar. THAT WAS SUPPOSED TO BE IMPOSSIBLE, TONY!

Cincinnati 31, NY Giants 13

Adjusted Yards per Play: 6.12 – Cincinnati, 2.11 – NY Giants

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Cincinnati 25.35, NY Giants 10.55

Quick Thought: Okay, NOW it’s safe to be worried about the Giants. I can only assume Eli had placed a bet with his offensive linemen before the season that he could pull off a SPOT-ON right-handed impersonation of Kyle Orton’s horrendous left-handed flip interception from a few years ago during a real game. If that’s the case, then it was probably a wise choice to do it before you get any later in the season, Eli. You don’t want to have that burning in your back pocket during the Week 17 game against the Eagles that you’ll have to win to back into the playoffs.

Denver 36, Carolina 14

Adjusted Yards per Play: 4.92 – Denver, 3.13 – Carolina

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Denver 21.44, Carolina 14.31

Quick Thought: Everybody remember how Trindon Holliday was so horrible at kick returning that even HOUSTON, whose special teams have only occasionally been better than that of a Lingerie Football League team this season, cut him in disgust? Chalk it up to the restorative magic that John Elway possesses in that mighty jaw of his. “For my next reclamation project, I will dig up the corpse of Bob Hope and turn him into a 1,500 yard rusher.”

Dallas 38, Philadelphia 23

Adjusted Yards per Play: 6.19 – Dallas, 5.06 – Philadelphia

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Dallas 23.88, Philadelphia 23.85

Quick Thought: It should really tell you something about the way these two teams’ seasons have gone that Dallas committed approximately 745 defensive penalties of the brain-dead variety (seriously: how many times can you line up in the neutral zone before you realize, “Hey…maybe I should back up two feet?”), openly abandoned any concept of denying the Philadelphia pass rush a sack in the third quarter, and STILL ended up being the team that made FAR fewer mistakes. My goodness. These two teams make Chargers-Chiefs look like a Mensa convention by comparison.

Tampa Bay 34, San Diego 24

Adjusted Yards per Play: 7.42 – Tampa Bay, 6.09 – San Diego

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Tampa Bay 22.79, San Diego 28.28

Quick Thought: Hey! Norv showed some fire in the post-game interview yesterday! “Is it acceptable? No, it’s not acceptable. Is it acceptable having a blocked punt and an interception for a touchdown? No.  In 2010, I was under the assumption that it actually was – that’s why I let the Teletubby Dipsy secretly coach our special teams that season – but I was informed by reputable sources over the course of that year that it really is not. So we took the appropriate steps to remedy that – for example, no more posters around the team facility encouraging players to let the other team through untouched on a punt. We took those down. We run a tight ship around here.”

San Francisco 24, St. Louis 24 (OT)

Adjusted Yards per Play: 6.27 – San Francisco, 6.48 – St. Louis

AY/P Projected Point Totals: San Francisco 28.66, St. Louis 37.03

Quick Thought: A tie! A tie! A tie! After David Akers missed his field goal attempt midway through the overtime period, I knew it was a possibility, but you never really think that it’s actually going to happen until Sam Bradford throws a fiften-yard out eighty yards away from the end zone on the final play of the game. So unfulfilling. So inconclusive. What a rush these ties are!

New England 37, Buffalo 31

Adjusted Yards per Play: 6.28 – New England, 5.86 – Buffalo

AY/P Projected Point Totals: New England 30.50, Buffalo 29.72

Quick Thought: Ryan Fitzpatrick has to be the most unlikely gunslinger in football. By “unlikely,” I mean you wouldn’t expect a man of his, shall we say, modest physical tools to be the one to consistently try ripping stick throws into non-existent windows, Favre-style. In that regard, he’s a role model for the nation: never let anyone tell you that you can’t do something! Try it and find out for yourself! Great lesson, Ryan. You’re truly inspiring us all. Now on behalf of all Bills fans everywhere, please stop throwing into triple coverage. You’ve made your point.

Seattle 28, NY Jets 7

Adjusted Yards per Play: 5.12 – Seattle, 1.80 – NY Jets

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Seattle 24.50, NY Jets 6.43

Quick Thought: Apparently the Jets are contractually obligated this season to not score any offensive points against NFC West teams. I’m sure at the time they signed the deal back in June, they thought, “Hey, our defense is going to be good enough to beat those no-good hucksters even without the offense. And you can’t put on a price on the $20 gift card to T.G.I. Friday’s we’re getting in return!” Unfortunately, that deal now seems a bit short-sighted. Even worse: that gift card to T.G.I. Friday’s only covered 10% of their bill.

Baltimore 55, Oakland 20

Adjusted Yards per Play: 7.97 – Baltimore, 5.03 – Oakland

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Baltimore 35.30, Oakland 26.23

Quick Thought: You may not know this, but Carson Palmer is currently on pace to throw for 4841 yards this season. Carson Palmer! The Raiders racked up 422 yards of offense yesterday…and scored 20 points. They amassed 474 yards of offense against the Falcons back in Week 6…and scored 20 points. And they put up 396 yards of offense on the Dolphins in Week 2…and scored 13 points. I’m anxiously awaiting their inevitable 600-yard, 23-point outing that’s forthcoming later in the season. You can just sense it, can’t you?

Tennessee 37, Miami 3

Adjusted Yards per Play: 5.88 – Tennessee, 1.25 – Miami

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Tennessee 25.20, Miami 5.00

Quick Thought: Finally! This is the Ryan Tannehill we were expecting back in August. You know what Joe Philbin’s advice to ‘ol Ryan was after the game? “Don’t throw it to the other team.” GENIUS.

Week 9 Quick Thoughts

Scattered stats and thoughts regarding Week 9 of the 2012 NFL Season…

Pittsburgh 24, NY Giants 20

Adjusted Yards per Play: 4.55 – Pittsburgh, 3.27 – NY Giants

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Pittsburgh 22.43, NY Giants 11.21

Quick Thoughts:

1. I guess the obvious question we should be asking first is this: what in the world is Eli looking at in the above picture that is making his eyes bug out so? He’s been sacked plenty of times before, so it can’t be surprise that he’s being hit. Did Tom Coughlin momentarily disrobe on the sideline directly in front of him? If so, then I can’t blame Eli’s look of sheer terror – not even Mrs. Coughlin would want to see that anymore, I don’t think. What if LaMarr Woodley was telling him that Santa Claus and the Easter Bunny don’t exist anymore? If that’s the case, Eli’s not going to get as much as slack from this writer. According to this 2006 poll, the average American child stops believing in Santa at age eight and only fifteen percent of those surveyed believed past age ten. Wouldn’t it be quintessential Eli if he was JUST NOW learning that Santa wasn’t real? I’m going to live the rest of my life under the assumption that this is the case. It’ll make all Giants games and Eli commercials approximately 27% more enjoyable, I feel.

2. For those who enjoy proper rule enforcement according to the letter of the law: YES THE STEELERS GOT SCREWED OVER BY THE OFFICIATING IN THE FIRST HALF. I thought Roethlisberger’s quasi-tuck was a fumble, but I’ve seen that play get called an incompletion a ton, too, so that call, at best, inhabited a murky, gray area of the rulebook and human knowledge. What was not murky and gray was JPP’s BLATANT CLIP on Heath Miller at the end of Michael Boley’s fumble return. In addition, Ryan Clark’s big hit on Victor Cruz in the end zone was entirely legal and could only be considered a hit to the head if we, as a society, have decided to call our kidneys the “head” now. On the other hand, why am I defending Pittsburgh? Roethlisberger is a scum-sucking weasel and Ryan Clark would have hit a defenseless player in the head eventually, anyway. Might as well get the penalty out of the way early.

3. Finally, let’s all congratulate the New York media for successfully blowing a close loss to a good team COMPLETELY OUT OF PROPORTION. What’s this? The defending Super Bowl champions who came in with a 6-2 record, a four-game winning streak and a two-game lead in the division lost a game? HIDE THE WOMEN AND CHILDREN, 6-10 IS RIGHT AROUND THE CORNER. Eli may never complete another pass. Time for the David Carr Era to begin. BEFORE IT’S TOO LATE!

Atlanta 19, Dallas 13

Adjusted Yards per Play: 7.51 – Atlanta, 7.35 – Dallas

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Atlanta 33.80, Dallas 28.35

Quick Thought: Jason Garrett is a really bad head coach. I know this isn’t a particularly revelatory or insightful comment, but my goodness. The Cowboys consistently moved the ball up and down the field in the first half via the forward pass; they had 23 yards rushing at halftime. Naturally, the enlightened Princeton graduate Garrett thought of the second half as the perfect time to ESTABLISH THE RUN and take the ball out of Tony Romo’s hands. In related news, the Cowboys did nothing offensively in the second half except for the one drive where they let Tony Romo run the hurry-up offense. In which case, they went the length of the field for a touchdown in six plays. If Jerry Jones were still alive, you can bet he wouldn’t be standing for this.

Denver 31, Cincinnati 23

Adjusted Yards per Play: 5.39 – Denver, 5.01 – Cincinnati

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Denver 23.49, Cincinnati 25.77

Quick Thought: The Broncos play at the Colts next season, so the “Peyton returns to Indianapolis!” storyline will surface no later than 2013, but what if they meet each other in the first round of the playoffs? I’m almost positive said game would get decent ratings. I’m almost positive.

Carolina 21, Washington 13

Adjusted Yards per Play: 7.80 – Carolina, 4.76 – Washington

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Carolina 27.86, Washington 25.50

Quick Thought: One thing that Lucas and I forgot to talk about in our otherwise brilliant Week 9 picks post was the election subplot surrounding the outcome of the Redskins game. I’ll let Lucas’ texts from yesterday afternoon tell the story:

• LUCAS (12:25 P.M.): Except for 2004, when the Skins lose their last home game before the election, the incumbent loses. Skins win, incumbent gets reelected.
• LUCAS (12:27 P.M.): RG3/CAM AREN’T JUST PLAYING FOR THEIR FUTURES. THEY’RE PLAYING FOR AMERICA.
• NATHANIEL (12:31 P.M.): Haha yeah I thought about that after I sent my picks over. What happens if the Skins tie? Electoral college deadlock? LET’S ROOT FOR THIS TO HAPPEN.
• LUCAS (12:31 P.M.): I LIKE IT!

Sadly, a tie did not occur. Ignore all the other statistical indicators predicting a comfortable victory for you, President Obama: you’re gonna lose the election. THAT’S A FACT.

Seattle 30, Minnesota 20

Adjusted Yards per Play: 6.55 – Seattle, 4.38 – Minnesota

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Seattle 33.22, Minnesota 16.58

Quick Thought: Russell Wilson’s slowly and steadily improved just about every week this season (somewhere in the Los Angeles area, Bill Simmons is shouting, “I told you so!” and then going back to rolling around naked in a swimming pool filled with Larry Bird posters). Christian Ponder’s slowly and steadily descended into dogcrap every week this season. Call it “A Tale of Two Quarterbacks.” POSITIVELY DICKENS-IAN.

Indianapolis 23, Miami 20

Adjusted Yards per Play: 7.41 – Indianapolis, 6.98 – Miami

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Indianapolis 39.70, Miami 28.92

Quick Thought: Unsustainable Stat Alert: The Colts are now 5-1 in one-possession games this season; I trust you can make the appropriately “looks like they’ve got LUCK on their side!” pun for yourself. Meanwhile, I remain pleasantly surprised how non-terrible Ryan Tannehill has looked this season. He has shown himself capable of completing a forward pass AND when you type in “Ryan Tannehill” into Google Images, he now appears in about 50% of the first couple pages of images. SEE LAUREN? PEOPLE LIKE ME TOO NOW KIND OF.

Tampa Bay 42, Oakland 32

Adjusted Yards per Play: 9.29 – Tampa Bay, 4.92 – Oakland

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Tampa Bay 41.81, Oakland 26.36

Quick Thought: If you’re looking for a dark horse Wild-Card candidate in the NFC…well, Tampa Bay’s starting to look like a pretty good choice. Since they came off their bye, their offense has been playing at a level that would cause the ’99 Rams to cry in shame. I’m about 95% certain Doug Martin was literally on fire yesterday. Might be the reason he broke off all those long runs in the second half: how can we expect the Raiders to try to tackle him IF THEY’RE GOING TO GET THIRD-DEGREE BURNS JUST ATTEMPTING IT? Think about that, all you Monday Morning quarterbacks out there, before you pass judgment on that poor defense.

Houston 21, Buffalo 9

Adjusted Yards per Play: 7.12 – Houston, 4.53 – Buffalo

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Houston 31.02, Buffalo 18.44

Quick Thought: Signs Buffalo’s run defense may be turning a corner: Arian Foster rushed for ONLY 111 yards on ONLY 24 carries and ONLY scored one touchdown. That’s just 4.6 yards per carry! Keep this up, Buffalo, and people will start thinking you actually have an NFL-caliber run defense.

Chicago 51, Tennessee 20

Adjusted Yards per Play: 5.97 – Chicago, 2.33 – Tennessee

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Chicago 27.72, Tennessee 9.15

Quick Thought: Look, I have no illusions that he’ll be able to keep this up in the second half and keep pace with J.J. Watt in the Defensive Player of the Year race, but what Peanut Tillman’s done in the first half of this season has been just absolutely amazing. Forced fumbles is a stat that hasn’t been well-tracked in the past, so who knows what the actual record for a single season is, but right now Tillman’s on track to destroy Osi Umenyiora and Dwayne Harper’s listed record of ten. No one is better at punching balls. Well, no one other than Kevin Garnett.

Green Bay 31, Arizona 17

Adjusted Yards per Play: 5.99 – Green Bay, 5.08 – Arizona

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Green Bay 29.95, Arizona 23.95

Quick Thought: Aaron Rodgers’ 60 Minutes interview last night was, for the most part, phenomenally non-enlightening (you would expect nothing less from a Scott Pelley piece), but one of the few things we did learn is that if you want to get on Rodgers’ nerves, just make fun of his height (he’s “only” 6’2″) or say something along the lines of “Wow, I thought you’d be bigger in person.” Apparently, that really gets under his skin and causes him to say wildly inappropriate things such as “I don’t appreciate that.” Food for thought if you ever meet him, Lucas.

Baltimore 25, Cleveland 15

Adjusted Yards per Play: 5.52 – Baltimore, 3.08 – Cleveland

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Baltimore 24.45, Cleveland 14.30

Quick Thought: Another golden texting exchange from Lucas and myself yesterday for your reading pleasure:

• LUCAS (1:44 P.M.): Pulled up the BAL-CLE game. Brandon Weeden has a funny look on his face. As I sat here trying to find out what it meant he threw a pick. I feel this is significant.
• NATHANIEL (1:46 P.M.): Was it a look of constipation? I bet it was a look of constipation.
• LUCAS (1:47 P.M.): I could maybe see it being one of mild constipation. Maybe confusion, maybe misplaced condescension. Hard to say for sure
• NATHANIEL (1:49 P.M.): Call it constifusionscension. Rolls off the tongue very easily!

There you have it. Yesterday, Brandon Weeden was constifusionscended and threw an interception as a result. THUS ENDS OUR EXPERT ANALYSIS.

Detroit 31, Jacksonville 14

Adjusted Yards per Play: 7.56 – Detroit, 3.88 – Jacksonville

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Detroit 36.72, Jacksonville 16.35

Quick Thought: We all thought it was monumentally stupid for the Jaguars to wear their black jerseys in 87 degree heat against the Bears a month ago. Little did we know at the time (unless you were a devoted Jaguars fan, but I seriously doubt that, no such people actually exist) that they were actually switching to black as their main home jersey for the rest of the season. Thus, Shahid Khan goes down in the record books as the first professional sports owner in history who actively attempted to kill his players via heat stroke. TRULY THIS IS A MODEL FRANCHISE.

Week 8 Quick Thoughts

Scattered stats and thoughts regarding Week 8 of the 2012 NFL Season…

NY Giants 29, Dallas 24

Adjusted Yards per Play: 3.76 – NY Giants, 2.58 – Dallas

AY/P Projected Point Totals: NY Giants 15.58, Dallas 15.30

Quick Thoughts:

1. Rare is the game in which a team turns the ball over six times and you still sort of feel they should have won the game…but, on the other hand, rare is the game in which a ball bounces off Gerald Sensabaugh’s buttocks and winds up an interception, so let’s just acknowledge some strange stuff was going on at Cowboys Stadium yesterday. Namely, the Cowboys coming within a Dez Bryant pinkie of making an incredible comeback from a 23-0 deficit and an utterly dogcrap first quarter performance from Tony Romo. Dallas’s performance from the second quarter on was a solid reminder of how well they can play when they don’t have their heads firmly wedged up their derrieres. Unfortunately, they’re the Cowboys and they always have their heads firmly wedged up their derrieres. So they head to undefeated Atlanta now with the knowledge that if they had been just 5% smarter over the course of the game, they would have emerged victorious. In other words, it’s just like every other Cowboys loss.

2. The Giants, on the other hand, were boringly competent as usual, which doesn’t give me a whole lot to write about. This is the one area where the Cowboys have a leg up on the Giants – no matter what they do (usually it’s failing spectacularly), they’re always wildly entertaining and provide a treasure trove of material for internet schlubs such as myself. The Giants are essentially the NFL’s straight man – they play the role of the Mac in those Mac vs. PC Apple commercials and nerdily yet calmly let their PC opponents flail about with misread coverages and hard drive viruses. If Eli Manning ever rolls his eyes and talks about how much simpler and easier it is to use Kevin Gilbride’s playbook in comparison to Jason Garrett’s, the analogy will be complete.

3. Finally, can I get a what-what for recognizing how INCREDIBLY DISCONCERTING Thom Brennaman’s laugh is? He usually only unleashes it once a game, but that’s part of what makes it so terrifying – you never know when it’s going to attack. I’ll just be sitting there, minding my own business, listening to Troy Aikman explain how Tony Romo is somehow a better quarterback than he was when, all of a sudden, it sounds like someone’s shooting a machine gun full of canned douchebag bro laughter. HUHHUHUHUHUHUHUHUHUHUHUHUH. Jeez, it makes Butthead sound cerebral by comparison.

Denver 34, New Orleans 14

Adjusted Yards per Play: 7.89 – Denver, 4.12 – New Orleans

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Denver 40.01, New Orleans 17.66

Quick Thought: Denver was the top ranked AFC team in SSLYAR’s Predictive Yards per Play metric last week and they looked the part last night against the Saints. It’s no big surprise Peyton and the offense put 500+ yards up on the Saints’ D – I think Abe Vigoda and Betty White did the same thing in a scrimmage during the Saints’ bye week – but it’s particularly impressive that the Broncos shut down Drew Brees and the Saints’ offense, which has still played very well this year. If Dan Dierdorf were announcing that game, I’M NOT SO SURE he wouldn’t have been singing the Broncos’ praises.

Pittsburgh 27, Washington 12

Adjusted Yards per Play: 6.80 – Pittsburgh, 4.83 – Washington

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Pittsburgh 29.63, Washington 19.67

Quick Thought: We all saw the Steelers’ throwbacks yesterday and collectively decided as a nation, within 1.3 seconds, that they were hideous and worthy of being tossed into a nuclear waste facility. Nothing new to add here. What you may not remember is, back in 1994, EVERYBODY was wearing their horrendous throwback jerseys in honor of the NFL’s 75th anniversary. Look at the Bears’ throwbacks. Now the Packers’. And, finally, the Cardinals’. Now you look me in the eye and tell me we haven’t come a long way as a country in 92 years.

Atlanta 30, Philadelphia 17

Adjusted Yards per Play: 6.65 – Atlanta, 5.00 – Philadelphia

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Atlanta 32.30, Philadelphia 22.14

Quick Thought: I find it highly unlikely that Nick Foles would be a notable improvement at quarterback over Michael Vick, but when Vick is offering up the knowledge that Andy Reid’s thinking of replacing him and “if that’s the decision Coach wants to make, then I support it”…well, then you gotta get him out of there. It’s one thing if a quarterback is struggling; it’s quite another when a quarterback is struggling and has no confidence. When that happens, you get 2007 Rex Grossman. Make sure you get a reputable realtor, Andy.

New England 45, St. Louis 7

Adjusted Yards per Play: 8.99 – New England, 4.49 – St. Louis

AY/P Projected Point Totals: New England 42.38, St. Louis 18.28

Quick Thought: Judges’ score for Gronk’s first touchdown celebration (a Palace Guard-mimicking strut followed by an emphatic spike): 8.6 out of 10 for a creative, if somewhat rigid, performance. Judges’ score for Gronk’s second touchdown celebration (a perplexing dance involving waving the ball over his head and repeatedly thrusting his pelvis in a circular fashion): 0.0 out of 10 for OH MY GOD GRONK YOU GOTTA PUT THAT THING AWAY NO ONE WANTS TO SEE THAT I’M GOING TO WASH MY EYES OUT WITH BLEACH NOW.

Detroit 28, Seattle 24

Adjusted Yards per Play: 6.16 – Detroit, 6.19 – Seattle

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Detroit 32.12, Seattle 23.88

Quick Thought: The Lions ended up winning thanks to a surprise appearance by Titus Young (Sr.), but I still have to question their defensive play call on Marshawn Lynch’s 77-yard touchdown run. I respect Kyle Vanden Bosch as much as the next guy – actually, what am I saying, I hate that guy’s guts, his red contact lenses are classic HURR I’M TOUGH DURR I’M LIKE A RABID WOLF OUT THERE HURRRRRR tough guy posturing – but if he’s your last man back trying to run down Beast Mode…well, I don’t like them odds.

Chicago 23, Carolina 22

Adjusted Yards per Play: 1.98 – Chicago, 4.49 – Carolina

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Chicago 7.50, Carolina 24.70

Quick Thought: The Panthers need to fire either Ron Rivera or special teams coach Brian Murphy. Or both. But someone has to be held responsible for the INCREDIBLY IDIOTIC kickoff strategy of pooching it 25 yards so the Bears could get the ball at their own 43 every time. That single-handedly kept the Bears in the game in the first three quarters when they were actively attempting to fall behind by four touchdowns. I liked Ron when he was the Bears’ Defensive Coordinator in the middle of last decade, but unfortunately all signs are pointing to him being a TURRIBLE (copyright Charles Barkley) head coach.

Miami 30, NY Jets 9

Adjusted Yards per Play: 3.83 – Miami, 3.65 – NY Jets

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Miami 16.14, NY Jets 20.60

Quick Thought: Let the record show that this wasn’t as bad a performance by the Jets as the final score would indicate. They got eight more first downs than the Dolphins, averaged 4.6 yards per play compared to Miami’s 4.0, and were able to get six of their seven punts out of there without a block. Well done! Now, during the bye week, guys, let’s AIM FOR PERFECTION and try to go seven for seven next time.

Green Bay 24, Jacksonville 15

Adjusted Yards per Play: 3.56 – Green Bay, 4.38 – Jacksonville

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Green Bay 16.27, Jacksonville 22.21

Quick Thought: Raise your hand if you had Blaine Gabbert throwing for 117 more yards than Aaron Rodgers yesterday. …*scans crowd quickly, rolls eyes*…Now, Mrs. Gabbert, I realize you want to exude a sense of confidence in your son, but we all heard what you were saying Sunday morning, put that hand back down…

Indianapolis 19, Tennessee 13 (OT)

Adjusted Yards per Play: 6.11 – Indianapolis, 6.41 – Tennessee

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Indianapolis 32.30, Tennessee 25.64

Quick Thought: Is there a more awesome way to score a game-winning touchdown than Vick Ballard’s somersaulting, head-hitting-the-pylon method? Well, in a literal sense, yes. If, let’s say, Arian Foster jumps from his own goal line and soars 100 yards in the air, levitating over the field of play WHILE killing Cloud Nazis that have come to destroy America AND shooting cannonball farts out of his butt…that would probably be more awesome. Until then, Vick Ballard is the leader in the clubhouse.

Cleveland 7, San Diego 6

Adjusted Yards per Play: 4.36 – Cleveland, 3.12 – San Diego

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Cleveland 19.29, San Diego 15.36

Quick Thought: Uhhhhhh….these two teams played, I guess? This was the score on the bottom of the ticker during the early games that you instinctively just skipped over in favor of reaching for another Frito or picking the lint out of your belly button and then you’d look up with a start and say, “Wow, that Browns-Chargers game is really over at 7-6? Glad I didn’t watch that one. BACK TO DEFORESTING MY NAVEL.”

Oakland 26, Kansas City 16

Adjusted Yards per Play: 5.47 – Oakland, 3.03 – Kansas City

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Oakland 24.22, Kansas City 12.77

Quick Thought: And the Brady Quinn Era in Kansas City ends much as we all expected it would. Two of four for one yard. One sack for seven yards lost. One terrible interception. One painful concussion. A Total Quarterback Rating of 1.5. R.I.P. hilariously bad Kansas City quarterbacking. Now we’re back to just bad Kansas City quarterbacking.