Week 14 Quick Thoughts

Scattered stats and thoughts regarding Week 14 of the 2012 NFL Season…

Washington 31, Baltimore 28 (OT)
Adjusted Yards per Play: 6.52 – Washington, 5.93 – Baltimore
AY/P Projected Point Totals: Washington 30.74, Baltimore 24.57
Quick Thoughts:
1. Remember a few weeks ago during the Thanksgiving game when Brandon Banks stupidly tried to return a punt out of his own end zone and wound up getting tackled at about the 5? Strangely, that may have ended up being a blessing in disguise. Perhaps Banks would’ve been able to replicate the 64-yard punt return Richard Crawford had in overtime yesterday to put the Redskins in position for the game-winning field goal, but given his returning antics on Turkey Day and the general indisputable fact that he’s terrible, I doubt it. It’s always interesting to see how, over the course of a team’s season, plays that didn’t seem to be much more than a trifle at the time can end up leading to bigger, season-defining plays down the line. Because of Crawford’s punt return – and a little help from Kirk Cousins, of course – the Redskins are 7-6 and still in good position to put major heat on the Giants (for the NFC East) or the Bears (for the last wild-card spot). Well, still in good position as long as…
2. RGIII ISN’T DEAD!! Holy crap was that terrifying. As a Chicago sports fan, I was getting ‘Nam-like flashbacks to Derrick Rose’s non-contact knee injury in the playoffs last spring while watching Haloti Ngata’s devastating hit to RGIII’s knee. I’m sure all you Redskins fans out there were somewhat more concerned than I was. Luckily, it’s just a sprain and it’s not season-ending. If RGIII is healthy and able to play the Redskins’ last three games, they’ve got a pretty decent shot at running the table (as long as Scramblin’ Nick Foles doesn’t run for 300 yards against them, anyway). If he isn’t…well, 8-8 or 9-7 ain’t bad.

3. Baltimore, on the other hand, is the master of playing almost EXACTLY to their opponents’ capabilities. This isn’t a particularly useful skill when you should be blowing out Kansas City and are instead needing a dubious roughing-the-passer penalty to get out of Arrowhead with a three-point win. But it IS useful when your next three games are against the Broncos, Giants, and Bengals. Cincinnati and Pittsburgh’s losses yesterday basically assure the AFC North title will go to Baltimore, which in turn likely assures us all that the Ravens will win one playoff game and then lose a heartbreaker in the second round. That whole playing to the level of your competition thing, you know.

Dallas 20, Cincinnati 19
Adjusted Yards per Play: 4.04 – Dallas, 5.36 – Cincinnati
AY/P Projected Point Totals: Dallas 20.20, Cincinnati 22.21

Quick Thought: One of many games from yesterday in which the Adjusted Yards per Play metric thinks the wrong team won. In Cincinnati’s case, they lost because they kicked three field goals deep in the red zone instead of coming away with touchdowns. Thoughts and prayers go out to the families of Jerry Brown and Josh Brent.

Minnesota 21, Chicago 14
Adjusted Yards per Play: 4.34 – Minnesota, 5.32 – Chicago
AY/P Projected Point Totals: Minnesota 17.36, Chicago 27.74

Quick Thought: Every all-time great running back has one season where you could try to stop them by lining up eleven tanks on defense and nuking the crap out of them but it wouldn’t matter because they’d just run through them or around them anyway (or, in the case of Jim Brown, both). Coming into this year, the unquestioned best back of this era, Adrian Peterson, hadn’t really had that one year where you look at his final stat line and scream GAHHHH KILL IT WITH FIRE. Suffice it to say, I think he may be having that year in 2012.

NY Giants 52, New Orleans 27
Adjusted Yards per Play: 6.84 – NY Giants, 4.96 – New Orleans
AY/P Projected Point Totals: NY Giants 30.29, New Orleans 24.09

Quick Thought: What a weird game. The Giants couldn’t really stop the Saints and Eli HERPED and DERPED more than a few times throwing the ball decades late into blanket coverage. On the other hand, the Saints’ kick return coverage seemed to consist of toddlers from local daycare establishments and Drew Brees continued his quest to score twenty-one points with one throw. Plus, Troy Aikman and Joe Buck had an awkward running dialogue about Buck’s suit throughout the game. Just a strange day all around.

Green Bay 27, Detroit 20
Adjusted Yards per Play: 5.35 – Green Bay, 4.24 – Detroit
AY/P Projected Point Totals: Green Bay 19.87, Detroit 23.62

Quick Thought: I like to think that after the Lions got up 14-0 on the Packers last night, they thought to themselves, “All right, we’ve proved ourselves to be talented, let’s tank the rest of this one so we get a better draft pick in April and easier schedule next year.” Of course, even if that was the case last night, it doesn’t really explain what they were thinking in their four prior losses…

San Diego 34, Pittsburgh 24
Adjusted Yards per Play: 4.48 – San Diego, 5.00 – Pittsburgh
AY/P Projected Point Totals: San Diego 25.28, Pittsburgh 21.79

Quick Thought: At one point late in the first half, both Philip Rivers and Ben Roethlisberger had thrown for forty-two yards each and were apparently in a contest to see who could do the most damage to their yards per attempt average. Like he has all season, Rivers won that battle handily. Yet somehow, even though the Steelers averaged nearly two more yards per play, they got blown out by a 4-8 Chargers team. Asked why he thought the Steelers were so inconsistent, Roethlisberger said, “I have no clue. If I knew I don’t think we’d do it anymore.” Good to know!

San Francisco 27, Miami 13
Adjusted Yards per Play: 6.93 – San Francisco, 4.33 – Miami
AY/P Projected Point Totals: San Francisco 27.23, Miami 17.63

Quick Thought: Anybody else take an, ahem, active interest in how Colin Kaepernick’s last fourth-quarter run turned out? Given that I had picked the 49ers at -10.5, I was obviously standing up at the dinner table while clenching my fork with white knuckles and repeatedly shouting, “DON’T STOP AT THE ONE! DON’T STOP AT THE ONE!” And he didn’t! Would it have technically been a smarter play to stop at the one, so that your team could just kneel out the rest of the clock and not worry about further injury to your players in meaningless action? Of course. But on behalf of all people who picked the Niners yesterday, I’d like to stand and salute Colin Kaepernick for his selfish decision to score the touchdown. Godspeed, buddy.

Carolina 30, Atlanta 20
Adjusted Yards per Play: 7.87 – Carolina, 6.08 – Atlanta
AY/P Projected Point Totals: Carolina 38.23, Atlanta 26.93

Quick Thought: What…what’s going on here? Carolina thoroughly outplayed a team and actually won? Atlanta got thoroughly outplayed, then started a crazy comeback and still lost? Who’s in charge of the narrative around here, guys? Someone forgot to edit the ending properly…

Indianapolis 27, Tennessee 23
Adjusted Yards per Play: 3.22 – Indianapolis, 4.77 – Tennessee
AY/P Projected Point Totals: Indianapolis 15.64, Tennessee 20.44

Quick Thought: Andrew Luck’s pick-six while on his knees was A): wholly hilarious and B): obviously not a pick-six, since his knees were on the ground. I’d say that was one of the worst replay rulings of recent vintage, but I had Tennessee at +5.5. So, simply put, I thought it was a tough call and further indisputable evidence – such as a signed confession from Luck, perhaps, or a DNA sampling from the field – was needed to overturn it.

Seattle 58, Arizona 0
Adjusted Yards per Play: 8.43 – Seattle, -3.90 – Arizona
AY/P Projected Point Totals: Seattle 39.14, Arizona -16.16
Quick Thought: This was my best week for picks against the spread all year by far: I’m 11-4 heading into the Monday night game tonight. Of course, since one of the picks I got wrong was Arizona +10.5, I don’t necessarily feel that proud about the wins. The following is a text message exchange between Lucas and I late yesterday afternoon:
  • Lucas (5:02 P.M.): Holy crap Seattle.
  • Nathaniel (5:05 P.M.): I stand by my Cardinals pick! I stand by my Cardinals pick!
  • Lucas (5:09 P.M.): We’re sure the line wasn’t Seattle -49.5, right?
  • Nathaniel (5:11 P.M.): They switched the line on ESPN.com to Sea -63.5 at the last minute today, didn’t you see?

Sadly he didn’t fall for it.

St. Louis 15, Buffalo 12
Adjusted Yards per Play: 4.18 – St. Louis, 3.55 – Buffalo
AY/P Projected Point Totals: St. Louis 20.00, Buffalo 14.71

Quick Thought: The difference between the Rams’ turnaround season from 2010 and their turnaround season this year is strength of schedule. Despite winning seven games and coming agonizingly close to the NFC West title in 2010, they played the easiest schedule in the league; there wasn’t actually that much to get excited about once stripped away the crappy teams. This year, however, they’re going .500 despite facing the toughest schedule in the league. They’ve got two semi-juggernauts in San Francisco and Seattle ahead of them currently, so it’s tough to say exactly that the future looks rosy for the Rams. But certainly there’s more reason for hope there than any time since Mike Martz was affiliated with the team. Yep, it’s been a while.

Philadelphia 23, Tampa Bay 21
Adjusted Yards per Play: 5.85 – Philadelphia, 5.50 – Tampa Bay
AY/P Projected Point Totals: Philadelphia 30.50, Tampa Bay 26.71

Quick Thought: Call of the day goes to Terry Bradshaw announcing Nick Foles’ glacially-paced touchdown scramble: “Golly is he slow.” Didn’t even try to reference fried chicken in the same breath. Well done, Terry!

NY Jets 17, Jacksonville 10
Adjusted Yards per Play: 3.39 – NY Jets, 3.16 – Jacksonville
AY/P Projected Point Totals: NY Jets 15.01, Jacksonville 15.80

Quick Thought: Look at Jacksonville’s Adjusted Yards per Play, Tim! That is what you’ve been missing out on this year by choosing the Jets over the Jags. It’s okay, we all make mistakes…

Cleveland 30, Kansas City 7
Adjusted Yards per Play: 5.77 – Cleveland, 5.48 – Kansas City
AY/P Projected Point Totals: Cleveland 28.03, Kansas City 20.35

Quick Thought: In today’s Sign That You Should Probably Be Just A Little Worried About Friday the 21st: the Browns have now won three in a row. TIME TO HEAD TO BIG LOTS AND LOAD UP ON BOTTLED WATER AND CANNED PEACHES. The end is nigh.

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