Week 8 Predictive Yards per Play Rankings

Week 8’s Predictive Yards per Play Rankings are coming up right about…now.

Offensive Predictive Yards per Play, through Week 8:

Rank Team Yards Plays Passing TDs INTs Rushing TDs Fumbles SOS PY/P (Ball-Control Adjusted
1 Green Bay Packers 3072 473 15 4 6 10 0.22 7.20
2 San Diego Chargers 2820 461 15 5 3 6 -0.14 6.82
3 New Orleans Saints 2772 467 19 5 3 4 -0.12 6.08
4 Atlanta Falcons 2540 448 14 7 3 7 0.10 6.05
5 Denver Broncos 3731 581 29 6 11 18 -0.09 6.01
6 Detroit Lions 3328 556 16 6 8 11 -0.01 5.86
7 Carolina Panthers 2289 451 12 5 7 6 0.36 5.68
8 Indianapolis Colts 2413 441 10 3 8 5 -0.07 5.62
9 Houston Texans 2668 500 9 11 2 9 0.28 5.42
10 San Francisco 49ers 2743 484 9 5 15 11 0.42 5.40
11 Cincinnati Bengals 2957 517 16 7 5 13 -0.07 5.33
12 Chicago Bears 2574 424 13 7 7 8 -0.05 5.33
13 Philadelphia Eagles 3178 542 11 7 7 13 -0.18 5.06
14 Seattle Seahawks 2715 493 14 4 7 17 0.19 4.96
15 Tennessee Titans 2181 438 10 5 3 10 0.23 4.79
16 Dallas Cowboys 2735 485 18 5 5 11 -0.20 4.73
17 Washington Redskins 2761 484 9 10 8 13 -0.35 4.70
18 Kansas City Chiefs 2646 542 9 4 7 8 -0.06 4.49
19 Pittsburgh Steelers 2255 435 8 7 3 10 0.03 4.48
20 Cleveland Browns 2536 531 13 9 1 7 -0.01 4.48
21 Baltimore Ravens 2301 474 8 8 5 7 0.07 4.30
22 New England Patriots 2640 562 9 6 7 11 -0.05 4.22
23 Minnesota Vikings 2141 418 5 8 10 10 -0.04 4.21
24 St. Louis Rams 2430 510 14 6 0 11 -0.10 4.09
25 Miami Dolphins 2177 444 11 9 5 9 -0.03 4.07
26 Buffalo Bills 2632 566 8 6 8 17 0.19 4.05
27 Arizona Cardinals 2516 492 10 14 6 13 0.20 4.03
28 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2084 466 8 6 1 11 -0.12 3.92
29 New York Jets 2643 533 8 13 3 10 -0.09 3.88
30 Oakland Raiders 2204 425 7 8 6 11 -0.32 3.83
31 Jacksonville Jaguars 2292 511 4 12 3 9 0.05 3.69
32 New York Giants 2622 506 10 16 5 12 -0.37 3.41

Defensive Predictive Yards per Play, through Week 8:

Rank Team Yards Plays Passing TDs INTs Rushing TDs Fumbles SOS PY/P (Ball-Control Adjusted
1 Seattle Seahawks 2314 508 6 13 4 18 0.02 3.59
2 Kansas City Chiefs 2472 498 8 10 2 14 -0.33 3.91
3 Arizona Cardinals 2740 547 14 12 3 11 0.38 3.98
4 San Francisco 49ers 2601 521 10 9 7 10 0.11 4.15
5 Baltimore Ravens 2401 447 11 4 1 12 0.11 4.16
6 Houston Texans 1874 394 10 3 6 7 0.17 4.18
7 Oakland Raiders 2316 451 10 5 6 13 0.24 4.29
8 New York Giants 2755 558 14 7 5 14 0.14 4.33
9 Cleveland Browns 2563 563 11 5 9 8 0.05 4.43
10 New York Jets 2520 520 15 3 5 13 -0.19 4.46
11 Tennessee Titans 2359 443 6 6 8 10 0.12 4.48
12 New England Patriots 2770 570 9 10 4 11 -0.19 4.58
13 Cincinnati Bengals 2580 534 11 7 3 8 -0.03 4.67
14 St. Louis Rams 2749 484 14 5 7 15 0.15 4.67
15 Carolina Panthers 2110 429 6 9 2 11 -0.59 4.81
16 Pittsburgh Steelers 2120 430 5 4 9 7 -0.28 4.87
17 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2369 445 13 6 3 7 0.10 4.87
18 New Orleans Saints 2327 429 8 9 5 11 -0.34 4.87
19 Miami Dolphins 2485 479 9 8 7 8 0.14 4.88
20 Indianapolis Colts 2455 448 8 8 5 9 0.14 4.92
21 Buffalo Bills 3049 575 20 12 2 6 -0.09 4.93
22 Detroit Lions 3048 498 13 10 5 10 0.02 5.04
23 Denver Broncos 3045 542 15 13 8 9 -0.28 5.12
24 Green Bay Packers 2318 425 12 3 6 8 0.04 5.13
25 Washington Redskins 2780 460 15 7 10 6 0.41 5.20
26 Jacksonville Jaguars 3138 525 16 3 13 13 0.31 5.50
27 Minnesota Vikings 2811 507 16 7 9 10 0.18 5.55
28 Dallas Cowboys 3380 562 15 11 6 10 0.17 5.56
29 Philadelphia Eagles 3214 580 14 8 5 9 -0.18 5.68
30 Chicago Bears 2737 441 11 10 8 14 -0.04 5.68
31 Atlanta Falcons 2546 428 16 4 3 6 -0.45 6.39
32 San Diego Chargers 2650 419 10 3 2 7 -0.07 6.64

Predictive Yards per Play Differential, through Week 8:

Rank Team PY/P Diff. Remaining SOS Projected Wins
1 Green Bay Packers 2.07 -19.45 11.74
2 Seattle Seahawks 1.36 -18.65 13.04
3 San Francisco 49ers 1.25 1.20 11.04
4 Houston Texans 1.24 -15.42 8.72
5 New Orleans Saints 1.21 3.42 12.06
6 Denver Broncos 0.89 18.11 11.80
7 Carolina Panthers 0.87 0.54 9.27
8 Detroit Lions 0.82 -15.80 10.02
9 Indianapolis Colts 0.70 6.75 9.87
10 Cincinnati Bengals 0.66 -8.41 10.98
11 Kansas City Chiefs 0.59 15.79 12.07
12 Tennessee Titans 0.31 -5.15 7.40
13 San Diego Chargers 0.17 1.88 9.04
14 Baltimore Ravens 0.14 -6.76 7.86
15 Arizona Cardinals 0.05 1.49 7.91
16 Cleveland Browns 0.05 -10.97 6.84
17 Atlanta Falcons -0.34 21.88 6.02
18 Chicago Bears -0.35 7.45 8.09
19 New England Patriots -0.36 7.73 9.34
20 Pittsburgh Steelers -0.38 1.48 6.54
21 Oakland Raiders -0.46 6.34 6.42
22 Washington Redskins -0.50 -15.76 5.92
23 New York Jets -0.58 -6.69 7.39
24 St. Louis Rams -0.58 11.43 5.69
25 Philadelphia Eagles -0.63 -4.71 6.25
26 Miami Dolphins -0.81 -11.08 6.59
27 Dallas Cowboys -0.83 -7.16 7.77
28 Buffalo Bills -0.88 -25.85 6.60
29 New York Giants -0.92 5.95 4.68
30 Tampa Bay Buccaneers -0.95 14.61 1.95
31 Minnesota Vikings -1.35 9.06 3.36
32 Jacksonville Jaguars -1.82 8.45 1.62

Green Bay’s nearly-perfect offensive showing Sunday Night against the Vikings boosted their offensive rating through the roof and, as a result, moves them past Seattle for the #1 spot in this week’s rankings. It’s still early, but this Packers offense is actually on pace to fly past the vaunted 2011 unit’s PY/P rating by a full yard per play. Considering Aaron Rodgers submitted one of the four or five best quarterback seasons of all time that year, I’d say that’s a pretty good start to the year for the Packers offense.

Rodgers hasn’t quite played up to his 2011 level this year – he’s merely playing at an MVP level rather than an otherworldly level -but the Packers now have an excellent running attack to back up their top-three (or top-two or top-one) quarterback. Football Outsiders ranked the Packers’ offensive line as the best run blocking unit in the league by their Adjusted Line Yards metric going into last week and I could only assume Sunday Night’s performance didn’t hurt that ranking too badly. Defensively, the Packers still rate well below average but have an ace in the hole whenever Clay Matthews returns from injury. If the Packers maintained this rating for the entire season – an unlikely proposition, but not an impossible one – they would easily rank as the best regular season team of the Rodgers/McCarthy era.

However, Seattle is still the favorite to win the top seed in the NFC despite falling to #2 in the overall PY/P rankings and, given their incredible home-field advantage, have to still be considered the main favorite to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. In fact, despite rating .71 yards per play better than any other team in the league, Green Bay is still currently projected to lose the #2 seed and other first-round bye to New Orleans. Given how top-heavy the NFC is this year, the first-round byes may hold more significance than usual – having to win back-to-back road games at New Orleans or Green Bay and then Seattle seems like a nearly impossible task off-hand.

The rest of this week’s overall top ten consists of San Francisco, Houston (sigh), New Orleans, Denver, Carolina, Detroit, Indianapolis and Cincinnati. Both the Panthers and Lions have come on strong in recent weeks and look like the main challengers for the last wild-card slot in the NFC playoffs. Detroit’s currently the favorite to wrest that spot away because of a significantly easier schedule.

Nothing changed in the AFC playoff projections from last week – Cincinnati became a stronger favorite to pick up the #2 seed after their thrashing of the Jets, but no actual spots changed hands this week. Kansas City and Denver are still projected to be the two winningest teams in the conference, but both are slated to wind up around 12 wins because of schedules that rank as the two toughest remaining in the AFC. The two games the teams play against each other – and the two each will play against San Diego – will probably be the main factors in shaking out the AFC playoff race.

Projected AFC Playoff Picture, through Week 8:

  1. Kansas City (12.1 wins)
  2. Cincinnati (11.0 wins)
  3. Indianapolis (9.9 wins)
  4. New England (9.3 wins)
  5. Denver (11.8 wins)
  6. San Diego (9.0 wins)

In the hunt: Houston (8.7 wins), Baltimore (7.9 wins), Tennessee (7.4 wins), NY Jets (7.4 wins)

Mediocre: Cleveland (6.8 wins), Buffalo (6.6 wins), Miami (6.6 wins), Pittsburgh (6.5 wins), Oakland (6.4 wins)

Teddy Bridgewater Sweepstakes: Jacksonville (1.6 wins)

Projected NFC Playoff Picture, through Week 8:

  1. Seattle (13.0 wins)
  2. New Orleans (12.1 wins)
  3. Green Bay (11.7 wins)
  4. Dallas (7.8 wins)
  5. San Francisco (11.0 wins)
  6. Detroit (10.0 wins)

In the hunt: Carolina (9.3 wins), Chicago (8.1 wins), Philadelphia (6.3 wins), Washington (5.9 wins)

Mediocre: Arizona (7.9 wins), Atlanta (6.0 wins), St. Louis (5.7 wins)

Teddy Bridgewater Sweepstakes: NY Giants (4.7 wins), Minnesota (3.4 wins), Tampa Bay (2.0 wins)

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