Week 7 Predictive Yards per Play Rankings

Below are Week 7’s rankings for your perusal:

Offensive Predictive Yards per Play, through Week 7:

Rank Team Yards Plays Passing TDs INTs Rushing TDs Fumbles SOS PY/P (Ball-Control Adjusted
1 San Diego Chargers 2820 461 15 5 3 6 -0.03 6.93
2 Atlanta Falcons 2248 369 13 3 3 7 0.12 6.71
3 Green Bay Packers 2608 400 13 4 4 10 0.13 6.56
4 Denver Broncos 3285 501 25 3 10 17 -0.05 6.23
5 New Orleans Saints 2386 403 14 5 3 4 -0.09 6.09
6 Philadelphia Eagles 2977 484 11 5 7 8 -0.13 5.73
7 Indianapolis Colts 2413 441 10 3 8 5 -0.03 5.66
8 Detroit Lions 2705 478 15 4 5 9 -0.07 5.62
9 Carolina Panthers 1965 389 10 5 5 6 0.17 5.43
10 Houston Texans 2668 500 9 11 2 9 0.28 5.42
11 Washington Redskins 2495 414 8 6 7 10 -0.28 5.40
12 Seattle Seahawks 2580 453 12 4 7 17 0.19 5.32
13 Chicago Bears 2574 424 13 7 7 8 -0.17 5.21
14 Cincinnati Bengals 2555 461 11 6 5 11 -0.12 5.09
15 Dallas Cowboys 2467 429 15 5 5 10 -0.25 5.03
16 San Francisco 49ers 2345 429 8 5 11 8 0.27 4.98
17 Pittsburgh Steelers 1979 366 7 5 2 10 0.10 4.90
18 Tennessee Titans 2181 438 10 5 3 10 0.29 4.85
19 Kansas City Chiefs 2315 471 7 4 7 7 -0.01 4.46
20 New England Patriots 2388 500 8 5 5 11 0.08 4.44
21 Oakland Raiders 1925 366 7 6 3 9 -0.23 4.28
22 Cleveland Browns 2196 479 11 9 1 6 -0.04 4.28
23 Baltimore Ravens 2301 474 8 8 5 7 -0.03 4.20
24 St. Louis Rams 2091 439 14 4 0 10 -0.01 4.17
25 Buffalo Bills 2333 498 7 5 7 13 0.19 4.10
26 New York Jets 2403 468 8 11 3 10 -0.03 4.09
27 Miami Dolphins 1876 365 9 7 5 8 -0.01 4.07
28 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1787 398 7 6 1 8 -0.06 3.97
29 Minnesota Vikings 1898 375 5 8 7 10 -0.17 3.89
30 Arizona Cardinals 2168 441 8 13 5 12 0.16 3.82
31 Jacksonville Jaguars 1974 441 3 12 3 8 0.01 3.42
32 New York Giants 2297 435 10 16 5 11 -0.21 3.41

Defensive Predictive Yards per Play, through Week 7:

Rank Team Yards Plays Passing TDs INTs Rushing TDs Fumbles SOS PY/P (Ball-Control Adjusted
1 Kansas City Chiefs 2132 446 6 10 2 13 -0.20 3.57
2 Seattle Seahawks 1975 437 6 11 4 17 -0.05 3.60
3 New York Jets 2118 464 10 2 5 11 -0.06 3.98
4 San Francisco 49ers 2283 451 9 9 7 9 0.16 4.00
5 Baltimore Ravens 2401 447 11 4 1 12 0.08 4.21
6 Houston Texans 1874 394 10 3 6 7 0.11 4.25
7 Arizona Cardinals 2448 468 13 8 3 11 0.16 4.34
8 Cleveland Browns 2232 492 9 5 9 7 -0.07 4.46
9 Tennessee Titans 2359 443 6 6 8 10 0.14 4.46
10 New England Patriots 2469 491 7 8 4 10 -0.03 4.51
11 Oakland Raiders 2040 382 9 3 5 13 0.29 4.54
12 Carolina Panthers 1813 361 5 9 2 8 -0.43 4.73
13 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2045 383 11 6 1 7 0.12 4.73
14 Buffalo Bills 2663 511 15 12 2 6 -0.27 4.84
15 New York Giants 2554 500 14 5 5 9 0.08 4.88
16 Cincinnati Bengals 2340 469 11 5 3 8 0.01 4.90
17 New Orleans Saints 2028 361 7 8 4 7 -0.17 4.92
18 Indianapolis Colts 2455 448 8 8 5 9 0.13 4.94
19 Miami Dolphins 2233 417 8 7 5 8 0.19 4.99
20 Green Bay Packers 2075 382 12 3 3 8 0.00 5.06
21 St. Louis Rams 2614 444 12 5 7 15 0.05 5.17
22 Pittsburgh Steelers 1841 371 5 2 6 5 -0.27 5.21
23 Minnesota Vikings 2347 434 14 7 7 10 -0.14 5.36
24 Dallas Cowboys 2757 484 14 9 3 8 0.17 5.36
25 Jacksonville Jaguars 2740 470 15 3 9 10 0.30 5.40
26 Denver Broncos 2779 472 14 9 7 6 -0.20 5.43
27 Washington Redskins 2334 380 11 4 9 5 0.24 5.49
28 Detroit Lions 2780 442 10 10 5 10 -0.09 5.50
29 Philadelphia Eagles 2889 509 14 8 5 8 0.07 5.61
30 Chicago Bears 2737 441 11 10 8 14 -0.05 5.70
31 Atlanta Falcons 2198 377 14 3 2 5 -0.28 6.23
32 San Diego Chargers 2650 419 10 3 2 7 0.00 6.59

Predictive Yards per Play Differential, through Week 7:

Rank Team PY/P Diff. Remaining SOS Projected Wins
1 Seattle Seahawks 1.72 -23.27 12.99
2 Green Bay Packers 1.50 -18.62 11.09
3 Houston Texans 1.18 -23.07 8.65
4 New Orleans Saints 1.17 3.05 11.49
5 San Francisco 49ers 0.97 -5.31 10.77
6 Kansas City Chiefs 0.89 12.35 11.75
7 Denver Broncos 0.80 14.07 11.52
8 Indianapolis Colts 0.72 -2.19 9.80
9 Carolina Panthers 0.69 5.63 8.25
10 Atlanta Falcons 0.48 18.60 7.51
11 Tennessee Titans 0.38 -15.61 7.62
12 San Diego Chargers 0.34 2.41 9.00
13 Cincinnati Bengals 0.19 -14.78 10.45
14 Detroit Lions 0.12 -18.55 9.04
15 Philadelphia Eagles 0.12 -16.07 7.45
16 New York Jets 0.11 -5.02 8.35
17 Baltimore Ravens -0.01 -10.77 7.86
18 New England Patriots -0.06 -2.82 9.50
19 Washington Redskins -0.09 -1.18 6.64
20 Cleveland Browns -0.18 -4.71 6.62
21 Oakland Raiders -0.25 8.58 6.07
22 Pittsburgh Steelers -0.31 -5.83 7.42
23 Dallas Cowboys -0.33 -3.96 8.79
24 Chicago Bears -0.49 1.84 8.19
25 Arizona Cardinals -0.52 2.14 6.57
26 Buffalo Bills -0.74 -7.48 6.77
27 Tampa Bay Buccaneers -0.76 13.11 2.44
28 Miami Dolphins -0.92 -5.63 6.77
29 St. Louis Rams -1.00 12.15 5.79
30 Minnesota Vikings -1.46 15.35 3.50
31 New York Giants -1.47 10.64 3.62
32 Jacksonville Jaguars -1.98 3.27 1.45

The top five teams in this week’s Predictive Yards per Play rankings remain the same and stay in the exact same order. Seattle remains the clear #1 team, although Green Bay did make some notable gains on them this week. Then comes – sigh – Houston, followed by idle New Orleans and San Francisco. The biggest risers this week were Washington and (weirdly, given their blowout loss to the 49ers) Tennessee, both of whom rose four spots. Chicago and New England both fell four spots, making those two the biggest falls in this week’s rankings.

The most interesting development to come out of this week’s rankings, though, is a complete reshuffling of the Predictive Yards per Play playoff projections for the AFC from last week. Five of the six teams remain the same, but each projected seed is different from the post-Week 6 rankings. Most notably, Denver’s loss to Indianapolis has now installed Kansas City as a slight favorite to win the AFC West and the home-field advantage throughout the playoffs that’s likely to come with the title.

Even so, though, the projection model only sees Kansas City going roughly 5-4 the rest of the way – they still have both games against Denver and San Diego (the two current projected wild-card teams) remaining and have to play Indianapolis the second-to-last week of the season. Cincinnati, meanwhile, is the new favorite to get the second bye in the AFC, but is projected to do so with only 10.5 wins.  In other words, Predictive Yards per Play doesn’t really forecast any AFC team to go off on a wild tear in the second half of the season. Well, except for Houston, but that’s a bug in the system that unfortunately doesn’t seem to be going away any time soon.

That probably speaks to the state of the AFC this season – it’s the undeniably deeper conference in 2013, but all of the top contenders have notable flaws. I talked last week about the struggles of Kansas City’s offense and Denver’s defense. Both units trended upward this week, but remain worse than any unit that has ever been apart of a Super Bowl-winning team. Cincinnati is slightly above-average on both sides of the ball – not exactly the most terrifying combination to face in the postseason. It’s possible this is the year that the wheels have actually fallen off for Tom Brady and Indianapolis just lost Reggie Wayne, by far their best receiver, to a torn ACL.

In other words? Things still look pretty wide open in the AFC. In the NFC, on the other hand, it’s pretty tough to imagine the conference’s Super Bowl representative not coming from the Seattle-Green Bay-New Orleans-San Francisco quadrumvirate. Dallas’s victory at Philadelphia re-installed them as the favorites to win the NFC East and Detroit remains the most likely recipient of the last wild-card slot because of a very easy remaining schedule. Seattle’s the highest-rated team in the league so far, however, and also has the easiest remaining schedule in the league. Green Bay and San Francisco also have easier than average schedules the rest of the way and the Saints have three home games in their next four overall that should build some cushion for when they have to play four away games out of five starting in late November.

Projected AFC Playoff Picture, through Week 7:

  1. Kansas City (11.8 wins)
  2. Cincinnati (10.5 wins)
  3. Indianapolis (9.8 wins)
  4. New England (9.5 wins)
  5. Denver (11.5 wins)
  6. San Diego (9.0 wins)

In the hunt: Houston (8.7 wins), NY Jets (8.4 wins), Baltimore (7.9 wins), Tennessee (7.6 wins), Pittsburgh (7.4 wins)

Mediocre: Buffalo (6.8 wins), Miami (6.8 wins), Cleveland (6.6 wins), Oakland (6.1 wins)

Teddy Bridgewater Sweepstakes: Jacksonville (1.5 wins)

Projected NFC Playoff Picture, through Week 6:

  1. Seattle (13.0 wins)
  2. New Orleans (11.5 wins)
  3. Green Bay (11.1 wins)
  4. Dallas (8.8 wins)
  5. San Francisco (10.8 wins)
  6. Detroit (9.0 wins)

In the hunt: Carolina (8.3 wins), Chicago (8.2 wins), Atlanta (7.5 wins), Philadelphia (7.5 wins)

Mediocre: Washington (6.6 wins), Arizona (6.6 wins), St. Louis (5.8 wins),

Teddy Bridgewater Sweepstakes: NY Giants (3.6 wins), Minnesota (3.5 wins), Tampa Bay (2.4 wins)

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