QB Charting, Week 3: NFC Roundup

St. Louis Rams

Sam Bradford: Week 3, at Dallas.

Passing Breakdown

	Comp.	Att.	Yards	Sacks	Sck Yards	TDs	INTs	ANY/A
Dropback	23	39	160	6	43	1	0	3.04
Play-Action	4	7	65	0	0	0	0	9.29
Screen	2	2	16	0	0	0	0	8.00
Designed Rollout	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00
Total	29	48	241	6	43	1	0	4.04

Rushing/Miscellaneous Stats

	Scrambles	Yards	Fumbles	Penalties	Drops	Inaccurate throws
Dropback	0	0	0	3, 37 yards	6	5
Play-Action	0	0	0	0	0	2
Screen	0	0	0	0	0	0
Designed Rollout	0	0	0	0	0	0
Total	0	0	0	3, 37 yards	6	7

Dallas Cowboys

Tony Romo: Week 3, vs. St. Louis.

Passing Breakdown

	Comp.	Att.	Yards	Sacks	Sck Yards	TDs	INTs	ANY/A
Dropback	13	19	148	1	7	2	0	9.05
Play-Action	3	4	56	0	0	1	0	19.00
Screen	1	1	7	0	0	0	0	7.00
Designed Rollout	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00
Total	17	24	211	1	7	3	0	10.65

Rushing/Miscellaneous Stats

	Scrambles	Yards	Fumbles	Penalties	Drops	Inaccurate throws
Dropback	0	0	0	1, 6 yards	1	2
Play-Action	0	0	0	0	1	0
Screen	0	0	0	0	0	0
Designed Rollout	0	0	0	0	0	0
Total	0	0	0	1, 6 yards	2	2

Easily the best performance from any NFC East team so far this year, the Cowboys completely dominated the Rams, who also made things pretty easy for Tony Romo and Co. Sunday afternoon. Tally up the drops and inaccurate throws from St. Louis’s side and you get a baker’s dozen unforced errors, which helps explain how the Rams only scored seven points. To their credit, though, the Cowboys defensive line wreaked havoc on Bradford all day, several times getting pressure from both the edge and up the middle and leaving Bradford nowhere to run. Of course, Bradford has poor mobility to begin with, so he wouldn’t have run very fast even if he was afforded the opportunity.

The Rams also helped out Tony Romo tremendously by continuously playing off coverage on the Cowboys receivers, leaving Romo’s favorite six-to-eight yard slants wide open all day (I know you saw that too, Jon Gruden!). Romo was very sharp, though, and took advantage of that poor play in the Rams secondary.

Detroit Lions

Matthew Stafford: Week 3, at Washington.

Passing Breakdown

	Comp.	Att.	Yards	Sacks	Sck Yards	TDs	INTs	ANY/A
Dropback	16	26	265	1	7	2	0	11.04
Play-Action	7	12	116	0	0	0	1	5.92
Screen	2	4	4	0	0	0	0	1.00
Designed Rollout	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00
Total	25	42	385	1	7	2	1	8.67

Rushing/Miscellaneous Stats

	Scrambles	Yards	Fumbles	Penalties	Drops	Inaccurate throws
Dropback	0	0	0	1, 15 yards	1	7
Play-Action	0	0	0	0	0	2
Screen	0	0	0	0	0	1
Designed Rollout	0	0	0	0	0	0
Total	0	0	0	1, 15 yards	1	10

Washington Redskins

Robert Griffin III: Week 3, vs. Detroit.

Passing Breakdown

	Comp.	Att.	Yards	Sacks	Sck Yards	TDs	INTs	ANY/A
Dropback	22	31	220	1	8	0	0	6.63
Play-Action	9	17	101	1	13	0	1	2.39
Screen	1	1	5	0	0	0	0	5.00
Designed Rollout	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0.00
Total	32	50	326	2	21	0	1	5.04

Rushing/Miscellaneous Stats

	Scrambles	Yards	Fumbles	Penalties	Drops	Inaccurate throws
Dropback	1	3	1	3, 14 yards	0	2
Play-Action	2	23	1	0	2	3
Screen	0	0	0	0	0	0
Designed Rollout	0	0	0	0	0	1
Total	3	26	2	3, 14 yards	2	6

It should probably say something about the state of the Redskins defense that Matt Stafford had 10 inaccurate throws Sunday afternoon (seven more than he had tallied in the first two games combined) and still threw for nearly 400 yards and over nine yards per attempt. Or maybe it says something about the mercurial nature of Stafford’s play, who typically made either an outstanding, ridiculous throw (like his final touchdown pass to Calvin Johnson in between four Redskins defenders) or an errant, off-the-mark pass. Joique Bell helped him out by consistently gaining yards after the catch and the Redskins secondary also aided in forgetting how to tackle at times (though not as prevalently as in their first two games).

As for RGIII, it was sad that the most explosive running play he’s had all season (and, really, the first time he’s really looked like RGIII as a runner all season) was punctuated by a goofy fumble when he awkwardly slid to the ground without being touched. That was the second of Griffin’s two turnovers deep in Lions territory – the first came when he was scrambling towards the sideline at full steam and either unsuccessfully tried to throw the ball out of bounds or made a remarkably poor decision to try to hit Pierre Garcon. Either way, Chris Houston was the beneficiary and that turnover, along with the aborted slide fumble later on, wound up being a large reason why the Redskins lost their third straight game to start the season.

Arizona Cardinals

Carson Palmer: Week 3, at New Orleans.

Passing Breakdown

	Comp.	Att.	Yards	Sacks	Sck Yards	TDs	INTs	ANY/A
Dropback	15	29	171	3	16	0	2	2.03
Play-Action	1	3	-2	1	10	0	0	-3.00
Screen	2	3	18	0	0	0	0	6.00
Designed Rollout	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00
Total	18	35	187	4	26	0	2	1.82

Rushing/Miscellaneous Stats

	Scrambles	Yards	Fumbles	Penalties	Drops	Inaccurate throws
Dropback	0	0	0	1, 5 yards	3	5
Play-Action	0	0	0	0	0	1
Screen	0	0	0	0	0	0
Designed Rollout	0	0	0	0	0	0
Total	0	0	0	1, 5 yards	3	6

New Orleans Saints

Drew Brees: Week 3, vs. Arizona.

Passing Breakdown

	Comp.	Att.	Yards	Sacks	Sck Yards	TDs	INTs	ANY/A
Dropback	21	30	270	3	19	3	1	8.06
Play-Action	5	11	53	1	4	0	0	4.08
Screen	3	5	19	0	0	0	0	3.80
Designed Rollout	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00
Total	29	46	342	4	23	3	1	6.68

Rushing/Miscellaneous Stats

	Scrambles	Yards	Fumbles	Penalties	Drops	Inaccurate throws
Dropback	3	24	0	1, 8 yards	3	5
Play-Action	0	0	0	0	2	1
Screen	0	0	0	0	0	1
Designed Rollout	0	0	0	0	0	0
Total	3	24	0	1, 8 yards	5	7

The Saints are 3-0 even though their offense has hardly been working on all cylinders yet, which is a scary thought for the rest of the NFL to ponder. Brees had his least accurate day of the year so far, throwing many uncatchable passes as I’ve ever seen from him. And his receivers dropped five more passes, including three by Jimmy Graham alone. On the other hand, Brees also made a ton of throws into small windows as usual and Graham ended up with 134 yards and two touchdowns. I’ve been infinitely more impressed with that offense’s performances in past years – but then again they’ve kind of spoiled us, haven’t they?

Palmer started out 8-of-10 for 88 yards, then went 10-of-25 for 99 yards and two interceptions the rest of the way. He had a bout of inaccuracy in the first half, with all but one of his inaccurate throws coming before halftime. He was also sidled with a poor offensive line, however, as Levi Brown continues to be a turnstile for any edge rusher looking for a sack. And the Cardinals also had the misfortune of playing a Rob Ryan defense early in the season – for whatever reason, the Black Sheep Ryan defensive coordinator’s tactics always seemed to work infinitely better in September and October than they do when the games actually matter. I have no idea why this is the case, but I am pretty sure a heavy use of profanity mixed with references to strippers and sweet live ass champagne are probably culprits in some way, shape or form.

QB Charting, Week 2: Redskins-Packers

Washington Redskins

Robert Griffin III: Week 2, at Green Bay.

Passing Breakdown

	Comp.	Att.	Yards	Sacks	Sck Yards	TDs	INTs	ANY/A
Dropback	18	31	200	0	0	3	1	6.94
Play-Action	6	7	101	1	6	0	0	11.88
Screen	2	2	19	0	0	0	0	9.50
Designed Rollout	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00
Total	26	40	320	1	6	3	1	8.02

Rushing/Miscellaneous Stats

	Scrambles	Yards	Fumbles	Penalties	Drops	Inaccurate throws
Dropback	0	0	0	0	4	5
Play-Action	1	4	0	0	0	0
Screen	1	2	0	0	0	0
Designed Rollout	0	0	0	0	0	0
Total	2	6	0	0	4	5

Reason #768 why Sportscenter is going down the tubes: 95% of the analysis Jaws, Eric Davis and the like have put forth on the Redskins’ 0-2 start has centered around shouting “WHAT’S WRONG WITH RGIII?!?!?!?!?!!!!!!” as loudly as they possibly can. The other 5% of the time, they may casually mention in passing that the Redskins have given up 71 points and over 1000 yards defensively combined in their first two games. Clearly it’s Griffin’s fault that the Redskins haven’t been able to cover anyone or tackle a corpse in a phone booth thus far this season. It’s also obviously Griffin’s fault that his receivers have dropped 11 passes so far, including one Sunday by Josh Morgan that would have converted a fourth down and instead flew into the hands of Mike Neal for Griffin’s only interception.

I’m not saying RGIII’s been totally blameless so far in 2013. He’s been inaccurate on five incompletions in each of the first two games, which isn’t a bad total but definitely isn’t fantastic, either. And he clearly hasn’t regained the same breakaway speed that he showed before his knee injury in the playoffs last January (“C’mon, Robert! It’s been a full eight months since your total knee reconstruction, time to take the training wheels off!”) But as a passer, Griffin’s looked as good, if not better, than he did last season. Remember: last year, the Shanahans built the Redskins’ game entirely around play-action and generated a crap ton of wide-open throws in the middle of the field for RGIII. For whatever reason, they’ve dramatically lessened the amount of play-action throws in the game plan thus far and it’s been considerably tougher sledding for Griffin this year. But make no mistake: there’s nothing wrong with 26 for 40 for 320 yards and three touchdowns. Blame everybody else (and count the defense twice, because Lord have mercy have they been awful) on Washington for their 0-2 start before you blame Griffin.

Green Bay Packers

Aaron Rodgers: Week 2, vs. Washington.

Passing Breakdown

	Comp.	Att.	Yards	Sacks	Sck Yards	TDs	INTs	ANY/A
Dropback	24	30	336	4	39	4	0	11.09
Play-Action	6	8	100	0	0	0	0	12.50
Screen	4	4	44	0	0	0	0	11.00
Designed Rollout	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00
Total	34	42	480	4	39	4	0	11.33

Rushing/Miscellaneous Stats

	Scrambles	Yards	Fumbles	Penalties	Drops	Inaccurate throws
Dropback	0	0	0	0	1	3
Play-Action	0	0	0	0	1	0
Screen	0	0	0	0	0	0
Designed Rollout	0	0	0	0	0	0
Total	0	0	0	0	2	3

The only area for improvement in Rodgers’ performance on Sunday is the same area he’s always been less than stellar at: taking sacks. Basically every time the Redskins got pressure on him (which wasn’t very often), he turtled up and just ate the yardage. On the other hand, when you’re averaging close to 11 yards per attempt every other time you drop back, protecting your moneymaker and living to fight another day isn’t the worst tactic, either. The rest of his performance is pretty self-explanatory if you look at the stat line or watched 30 seconds worth of highlights from the game. But in case you came here looking for cutting-edge analysis, here it is: Aaron Rodgers is really good at football and promises to be so in the future as well.

QB Charting, Week 1: Eagles-Redskins

Philadelphia Eagles

Michael Vick: Week 1, at Washington.

Passing Breakdown

	Comp.	Att.	Yards	Sacks	Sck Yards	TDs	INTs	ANY/A
Dropback	8	15	84	3	23	0	0	3.39
Play-Action	6	9	113	0	0	2	0	17.00
Screen	1	1	6	0	0	0	0	6.00
Designed Rollout	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00
Total	15	25	203	3	23	2	0	7.86

Rushing/Miscellaneous Stats

	Scrambles	Yards	Fumbles	Penalties	Drops	Inaccurate throws
Dropback	2	13	0	0	1	6
Play-Action	0	0	1	0	1	1
Screen	1	7	0	0	0	0
Designed Rollout	0	0	0	0	0	0
Total	3	20	1	0	2	7

Vick ended up with efficient numbers Monday night, but the real story of the game was the way Philadelphia’s running game dominated in the no-huddle attack. The Redskins couldn’t slow down (or, for much of the night, tackle) LeSean McCoy and Vick ended up with 34 yards rushing on read option plays in addition to the 20 he gained on scrambles. The strength of the Eagles’ ground game apparently opened the floodgates for play-action, too, as Vick had over half his yardage and both his passing touchdowns come after fakes to the running back – a ploy the Eagles used on less than a third of Vick’s total dropbacks. It was hard to watch the first half of Monday Night’s opening game and not envision a monster season for McCoy and a Coach of the Year award for Chip Kelly.

That Coach of the Year award may be incumbent on Vick being more accurate over the course of the season, however. Over a quarter of Vick’s throws were off the mark Monday Night and when the Eagles simply dropped back to pass with no deception embedded into the start of the play, the results didn’t look too different from Andy Reid’s last season. Vick still took more sacks than were necessary and missed too many wide open throws. One positive sign: his lone fumble was a fluky lateral pass that got batted away by Ryan Kerrigan a few inches behind the line of scrimmage – otherwise, there were no ball security issues to speak of. If Vick can actually shore that area of his game up over the course of an entire season, the strength of the Eagles’ rushing attack and Kelly’s innovative coaching may be enough for the Eagles to win a weak division.

Washington Redskins

Robert Griffin III: Week 1, vs. Philadelphia.

Passing Breakdown

	Comp.	Att.	Yards	Sacks	Sck Yards	TDs	INTs	ANY/A
Dropback	24	38	274	2	15	2	2	5.23
Play-Action	3	8	22	1	6	0	0	1.78
Screen	3	3	33	0	0	0	0	11.00
Designed Rollout	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00
Total	30	49	329	3	21	2	2	4.96

Rushing/Miscellaneous Stats

	Scrambles	Yards	Fumbles	Penalties	Drops	Inaccurate throws
Dropback	4	24	0	1, -10 yards	5	3
Play-Action	0	0	0	0	2	2
Screen	0	0	0	0	0	0
Designed Rollout	0	0	0	0	0	0
Total	4	24	0	1, -10 yards	7	5

It was a sloppy night for both RGIII and his receivers. Griffin didn’t get to spend hardly any time on the field in the first half but played long enough to throw a horrible interception to Brandon Boykin in the midst of three Eagles defenders in the middle of the field. His second interception, to Cary Williams at the beginning of the third quarter, was more a poor throw than a poor decision – it was the rare RGIII pass to the sideline without enough arm strength and Williams made an excellent diving catch on the ball.

All of RGIII’s inaccurate throws also came in the first two-and-a-half quarters and the vast majority of his receivers’ drops came in that time frame, too. After the midpoint of the third quarter, Griffin caught fire and generally looked like the budding superstar he played like in 2012 (at least through the air – he’s retained his mobility with his legs, but he didn’t show the extra gears he possessed last season outside the pocket). Structurally, there’s nothing wrong with the Redskins offense – the Shanahans still generate open receivers on passing plays as well as any offensive coaches in the league – and with more playing time to shake off the rust, Griffin should return to his 2012 form pretty quickly. The most worrisome aspect of Monday Night’s loss for Redskins fans should be the play of the defense, which didn’t look improved at all from last year even with the return of Brian Orakpo.

Player Who Was Better Than His Stats Would Indicate

McCoy. And that’s saying something considering he rushed for 184 yards and a touchdown. With the amount of times the Eagles figure to run the ball this season, it’s really not outside the realm of possibility that McCoy could wind up with 2,000 yards this year.

Player Who Was Worse Than His Stats Would Indicate

Vick. The fact that he left a lot of yards out on the field should alternately terrify opposing defensive coordinators (because as good as the Eagles looked at times Monday Night, there’s plenty of room for them to be even better) and soothe them (if Vick was ever going to solve his problems with accuracy, wouldn’t he have done that by now?).

Wild-Card Round Quick Thoughts

Scattered stats and thoughts regarding the 2012-13 NFL Wild Card Playoffs…

Seattle 24, Washington 14

Adjusted Yards per Play: 5.44 – Seattle, 2.74 – Washington

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Seattle 26.42, Washington 10.57

Quick Thoughts:

1. Frankly, given the circumstances, the Washington Redskins’ season just ended at the perfect time. With Seattle halting their phenomenal win streak in absolute must-have games at seven, now Mike Shanahan no longer has the temptation to send Robert Griffin III out on the field when he should clearly be watching from the sidelines and frustrated that he isn’t allowed to play. We can all admire RGIII’s competitive desire to get back on the field so quickly after sustaining the sprained MCL against the Ravens four weeks ago, but over the past three games against the Eagles, Cowboys and now the Seahawks, we all watched a player who wavered between 30 and 60% of his normal efficacy. Against the Eagles and Cowboys, 30-60% of RGIII was enough to keep Washington’s well-oiled offensive machine humming. And it looked like it would be enough in the first quarter against the Seahawks, as the Redskins continued to run the ball at will and RGIII overcame some uncharacteristically sloppy throws to slip a couple touchdowns into tight coverage. But as Seattle fixed the leaks in its front seven and once again began to resemble the top-five defense they’ve been for the entire season, so then did RGIII begin to slip further and further from even the shell of himself he was last week and into a guy who was unable to get the ball anywhere near wide-open receivers. I winced every time I saw the replay of his knee buckling. Let’s all hope and pray there’s no serious injury.

2. After that disastrous first quarter, the Seahawks began dominating play in the second and were the far superior team from then on. But until midway through the fourth quarter, this felt like the one playoff game a weekend we usually get where one team completely controls play and yet somehow winds up losing anyway. Toss Marshawn Lynch’s fumble inside the five with two short field goals, combine that with poor third down efficiency for the lion’s share of the game and then throw in Steven Hauschka’s rolled ankle on top of all of it and it seemed to all the world like this game was destined to end with the Seahawks losing by one because Hauschka didn’t have good enough ankles to kick a forty-one yard field goal. Tip your hat one last time to the Redskins’ defense this year. They’re not very good but battled and scrapped and kept it close as long as they could. The better team won today and that would have been true even if RGIII had played at 100%. It would have been a whole lot more exciting to watch if he was himself, however.

3. On a somewhat unrelated note, I love the name “Breno Giacomini.” I love it to an almost unhealthy level. I found myself spending large swaths of the second and third quarter just watching the Seahawks offensive lineman work and yell “YOU JUST GOT BRENOED” at the TV screen whenever his back was featured prominently in a close-up of Marshawn Lynch. Just a phenomenal moniker. I bet Breno enjoys himself some good Italian pasta.

Green Bay 24, Minnesota 10

Adjusted Yards per Play: 5.76 – Green Bay, 4.02 – Minnesota

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Green Bay 27.57, Minnesota 17.80

Quick Thoughts:

1. Once it became clear that Christian Ponder wasn’t very good (and for me, I’d like to think it became clear about mid-October), I became obsessed with the idea that Joe Webb should be starting for the Vikings. I had no idea whether he would turn them into a 12-4 team or a 4-12 team, but I knew it would be one or the other and that it would be wildly entertaining either way. And Joe’s emergency start against the Packers on Saturday was everything I could have hoped for. Unfortunately for Vikings fans, he may not be the type of guy you want to sidle up to two-and-a-half hours before a playoff game and say, “Hi there, Joe. We know you haven’t any practice reps this week – or this entire season, if we’re being honest – but we’re going to need to you to come in and play some quarterback for us this Saturday. Mmmmkay?” He’s exciting as crap when he’s running the ball, but holy balls was he a disaster whenever he tried to throw it (outside of the last five minutes of the game, anyway). My personal favorite was when he was wrapped up in the first quarter for a probable sack and on the way down threw the ball STRAIGHT UP into the air five yards down the field. The Packers’ defensive linemen will be kicking themselves for the rest of their lives for not picking that crap off. I’m still rooting for you, Joe, but you probably didn’t do yourself too many favors the other night.

2. Last Bears fan all-CAPS rant of the year, promise. WHAT THE HECK, GREEN BAY? YOU COULDN’T HAVE DONE THIS LAST WEEK? YOU COULDN’T HAVE COMPLETELY SHUT DOWN THE VIKINGS OFFENSE LAST WEEK WHEN YOU HAD A FIRST-ROUND BYE IN YOUR GRASP? I FOR ONE WAS LOOKING FORWARD TO SEEING THE BEARS GET DESTROYED BY THE 49ERS IN ROUND ONE. YOU’RE DESPICABLE, DOM CAPERS. CUT YOUR FREAKING HAIR, CLAY MATTHEWS. YOU SHOULD ALL BE ASHAMED OF YOURSELVES AND I HOPE THE 49ERS BEAT YOU BY 72. /end rant

3. The Vikings-Packers game is the last real game Al Michaels and Cris Collinsworth will get to announce this year – they’ve still got the Pro Bowl left to go, but we all know that doesn’t count – and that’s a real travesty. Faith Hill may stretching the truth quite a bit in some of the verses to “Waiting All Day for Sunday Night,” but the one lyric she tells the impeachable truth on is without a doubt “Al and Cris are the best on TV.” No other announcing duo remotely combines the insight, appropriate tone for the situation, and entertainment those two bring on a weekly basis. I’ve listed my fair share of favorite Al moments this year, but Cris is a hoot-and-a-half as well, particularly when he knows a team’s committed a brain-dead penalty (like the Vikings 12 Men on the Field penalty on the Packers’ field goal attempt in the third quarter) and he says “Uh-oh…UH-OH…” like a bemused bystander watching a husband tell his wife she looks fat. Man, I’m going to miss those guys. WHY DOES FOOTBALL SEASON LEAVE US SO QUICKLY?

Baltimore 24, Indianapolis 9

Adjusted Yards per Play: 7.16 – Baltimore, 3.72 – Indianapolis

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Baltimore 28.64, Indianapolis 23.12

Quick Thoughts:

1. Noted homer and Chicago White Sox annuoncer Ken “Hawk” Harrelson is, for some reason, fond of saying “You couldn’t pull a greased tee out of my behind with a pair of pliers” whenever the White Sox win by the skin of their teeth. What that statement is actually supposed to mean is open to debate, but amongst me and my friends the shortened term “greased teeing” has become an important part of our everyday lexicon. And this season I think we can all agree that no team greased teed things more than the Indianapolis Colts. Football Outsiders mentioned a stat in their Wild-Card preview last week that FINALLY made the Colts’ incredible run make some sort of sense: according to their DVOA numbers, the Colts were the best team in the league in third-and-long situations. A BEAUTIFUL METAPHOR FOR THEIR SEASON, Bob Costas likely shouted somewhere when he first read that sentence. And even though the Ravens were moving the ball at will against them yesterday, it always seemed like the Colts were going to pull one out again. Ray Rice was fumbling, Andrew Luck was hitting receivers five yards short of the marker but the receivers would run around like chickens with their heads cut off until they got the first down – it had all the hallmarks of a classic Colts win, really. I’m still shocked Baltimore won, I really am.

2. Is Ray Lewis the best middle linebacker of all-time? According to Pro Football Reference’s Approximate Value statistic, he is. Old-timers may champion Dick Butkus or Joe Schmidt or Mike Singletary instead. That’s fine. The point is, Lewis is in the discussion. Is Ray going to be a phenomenal studio analyst on ESPN after the Ravens get killed by Denver on Saturday? Maybe. He’s either going to be Charles Barkley or Shaq and there’s no in-between. Jared Allen gets my vote for Current NFL Player Who’s Most Likely To Be A Great Announcer.

3. In between the Colts-Ravens and Seahawks-Redskins games yesterday, I was exposed for the first time to the comedic stylings of the show entitled Tim and Eric Awesome Show, Great Job! It was brought to my attention to the internet that this program hasn’t been on the air for two years, thus continuing my run of not watching comedy programs (i.e. Arrested Development, Party Down) until they’re already off the air. So I’m well aware I’m behind the times here and that most of you have already made up your minds on this show, but holy freaking crap was the episode I saw an abortion. Just horrendous. It made According to Jim look like the freaking Simpsons by comparison.

Houston 19, Cincinnati 13

Adjusted Yards per Play: 5.13 – Houston, 3.19 – Cincinnati

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Houston 28.22, Cincinnati 10.94

Quick Thoughts:

1. Houston controlled this thing from the opening play and still has to feel relatively sick to their stomach about their performance. Matt Schaub looked like he was going to poo his pants out there. His last throw of the game (the game-clinching completion to Garrett Graham), he lobbed that sucker in there so softly, it was like he was trying to transport himself to a time and place where he was gleefully playing catch with his grandma. BUT GARRETT GRAHAM IS NOT YOUR GRANDMA, MATT. Graham saved his bacon by snagging the high and soft pass, then got concussed by a couple of Bengals. It was the polar opposite of the old Peyton Manning-Austin Collie concussion combination from 2010, where Peyton would throw a bullet pass in between four defenders in such a way that the only way Austin would be able to catch it is if he dove at full speed straight into a safety’s knees. Man, I miss those days. Austin probably doesn’t.

2. Andy Dalton’s day, everyone: 14-of-30, 127 yards and a pick. He alternated between not throwing the ball to A.J. Green at all (first half) and throwing every single pass A.J.’s direction (second half). Of course, he wasn’t particularly accurate when he was trying to throw it to A.J.: that missed end zone shot to Green that Shawshank overthrew by seven yards probably won’t sit well with all seven Bengals fans this offseason. Compared to Dalton, Matt Schaub looked like Kurt Warner.

3. Starting with the next TV contract in 2014, NBC will be getting rid of their Wild-Card Doubleheader and exchanging that for one Wild-Card game and one Divisional Round game, thus allowing Al and Cris to pick up one more paycheck for the season (Lord knows they deserve it). Hence, there will finally be a time when NBC doesn’t have to awkwardly trot out a play-by-play announcer who hasn’t called an NFL game all season (a real NFL game, anyway – Dan Hicks did call a Sunday Night preseason game this year) to go along with the mighty lisp of Mike Mayock for only one of the eleven most important games of the year. I look forward to that day, my friends. I look forward to that day.

2013 NFC Wild-Card Preview: Seahawks at Redskins

#5 Seattle Seahawks (Wild-Card Qualifier)

• 2012 Record: 11-5
• Point Differential: +167 (3rd)
• Strength of Schedule: +1.8 PPG (t-4th)
• Offensive PY/P Rating: 3.37 (2nd)
• Defensive PY/P Rating: 1.57 (3rd)
• Net Yards per Pass Attempt: 6.9 (9th)
• Yards per Carry: 4.8 (5th)
• Net Yards per Pass Attempt Allowed: 5.4 (5th)
• Yards per Carry Allowed: 4.5 (23rd)
• Number of Bona Fide Superstars: 2 (Earl Thomas, Richard Sherman)
• Unintentional Comedy Potential: High

#4 Washington Redskins (NFC East Champion)

• 2012 Record: 10-6
• Point Differential: +48 (12th)
• Strength of Schedule: -2.8 PPG (32nd)
• Offensive PY/P Rating: 3.35 (4th)
• Defensive PY/P Rating: 2.02 (25th)
• Net Yards per Pass Attempt: 7.2 (2nd)
• Yards per Carry: 5.2 (2nd)
• Net Yards per Pass Attempt Allowed: 6.8 (24th)
• Yards per Carry Allowed: 4.2 (17th)
• Number of Bona Fide Superstars: 1 (Robert Griffin III)
• Unintentional Comedy Potential: Medium

3:30 P.M. Sunday, January 6th, FOX (Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, Pam Oliver, Erin Andrews)

In terms of passing efficiency, Robert Griffin III and Russell Wilson just finished seasons that rank in the top five all-time for rookie quarterbacks. Their companions in the top five? Dan Marino, Ben Roethlisberger, and Matt Ryan. That’s some decent company and suggests that if these two stay healthy, they’ll be mainstays on the list of top-10 quarterbacks for the next decade at the very least. So this might not be the last time we see these teams face off in January. On the other hand, playoff rematches are exceedingly rare and tend to happen more often between teams you’d rather not see play each other again (HELLO BENGALS-TEXANS), so let’s just enjoy this one for what it is, shall we?

Along with the Cam Newton-led Panthers, the Redskins and Seahawks have been credited with leading the rise in the zone read option running play. This, of course, is the play in which the quarterback reads the action of a certain defensive lineman (usually a defensive end) and either hands the ball up the middle to his running back or fakes the handoff and runs the ball the opposite direction, depending on what the defensive linemen does. The reason the zone read is so effective and why it’s likely to remain a part of NFL playbooks from now on is because if the quarterback reads his assignment correctly, the defense should be wrong no matter what. If the defensive end guards against the quarterback run, he has no chance of making a tackle on the running back’s dive up the middle. And if he comes crashing down trying to blow up the running back in the backfield, the quarterback can just keep the ball himself and run around the edge for a big gain. If you watched any Redskins or Seahawks games in the second half of the season, you saw them make complete fools out of great edge rushers like DeMarcus Ware, Jason Pierre-Paul, and Julius Peppers on a regular basis. Given the multitude of athletic quarterbacks we’re seeing in college these days, the zone read may very well be the go-to running play of the future NFL.

Since both the Seahawks and (especially) the Redskins rely heavily on the zone read to make their offenses go, it’s fair to say that whichever defense slows down their opponent’s use of it the most will be a heavy favorite to head on to the Divisional Round next week. If only we could research how both teams did against a common opponent that also likes to run the zone read. As far as I know, however, no such team exists. Hmmm…hmmm…hey, wait a second! Both teams played the Panthers, right? And the Panthers do a crap-ton of read option, right? Awesome, let’s just take a look at those games!

Seahawks at Panthers, Oct. 7. This early-season game came before Russell Wilson came into his own, so the Seattle offense was still struggling to score at this point – in fact, the Panthers defense scored as many touchdowns (one) as the Seahawks offense. Seattle still won 16-12 because, outside of a two-minute drive at the end of the first half where Cam Newton had runs of 6, 15, and 13 yards, they completely shut down the vaunted Panthers running game. Take away those three aforementioned scrambles and Cam picked up eight yards on four carries. DeAngelo Williams got six yards on as many carries. Jonathan Stewart picked sixteen yards on four carries. The Panthers were forced into passing situations that they weren’t comfortable in and as a result picked up less than 200 total yards of offense.

Panthers at Redskins, Nov. 4. On the other hand, the Panthers ground attack was considerably more effective against the Redskins in their early November matchup (a.k.a. the last time the Redskins lost). Stewart picked up 51 yards on ten carries, Williams added 37 on six, and Cam ran for 37 and a touchdown on eight tries. Despite running twenty-five more plays than the Panthers, the Redskins lost 21-13 and Mike Shanahan began prematurely preparing for the 2013 season.

It’s obviously not smart to base an entire prediction on how two teams did in a single game against a common opponent, but the Seahawks’ and Redskins’ matchups against the Panthers do indicate the typical level of play both defenses performed at this year and illustrate why the Seahawks should be favored on Sunday. Seattle’s defense has been one of the top-five in the league all season and is especially deadly against the pass, where Richard Sherman and Brandon Browner are the biggest, most physical duo of corners in the league and Earl Thomas is turning into the new Ed Reed (a poor man’s Ed Reed, but still). Given Seattle’s 23rd-place ranking in Yards per Carry Allowed, there’s certainly a chance Washington could run on them; on the other hand, much of that poor ranking is due to what Adrian Peterson did to the Seahawks on Nov. 4 (182 yards on 17 carries) and I’m inclined to give the Hawks a pass on that one because AP isn’t human.

Washington, on the other hand, has struggled defensively all season. They put together probably their best performance of the season last week in holding Tony Romo and the Cowboys in check, but as a whole they still deeply miss the pass rush Brian Orakpo and Adam Carriker provided before their season-ending injuries and simply don’t have the talent to match up with an offense that has been absurdly efficient over the past two months. That means RGIII will likely have to carry the Redskins on his back Sunday – and given the way his knee has looked the past two weeks and the defense he’s going up against, I don’t know if I like them odds. This is likely to be the closest game of Wild-Card Weekend and probably the most entertaining as well. When in doubt, though, go with the all-around team.

Projected Final Score: Seattle Seahawks 28, Washington Redskins 24

Team to Bet On If Gambling Were Legal: Seahawks (-3)

Week 17 Quick Thoughts

Scattered stats and thoughts regarding Week 17 of the 2012 NFL Season…

Washington 28, Dallas 18

Adjusted Yards per Play: 6.57 – Washington, 3.30 – Dallas

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Washington 28.63, Dallas 14.38

Quick Thoughts:

1. This sucker had a weird feel to it for the first three quarters. These two explosive offenses played tight against opposing defenses that have had trouble lately stopping Ryan Seacrest from moving around network to network willy-nilly. Or is that ABC and FOX’s fault? I can’t remember. Anyway, Washington’s slow start was understandable: RGIII is somewhere between 40-60% physically right now and is perpetually stuck in second gear. Dallas’s slow start on the other hand…actually, that was understandable, too, it was Tony Romo in an elimination game. No more explanation needed. Even the refs seemed to be feeling the pressure, not calling any penalties through three quarters and letting Dallas score touchdowns when the play clock had been at zero for longer than Britney Spears’ first marriage and letting DeAngelo Hall molest Dez Bryant on the outside. It felt funky, is what it did.

2. Then the fourth quarter hit and things finally opened up. Alfred Morris did his best to save all of his Offensive Rookie of the Year campaign advertising for one game and drew a standing ovation from that noted master of eloquence Clinton Portis. Dwayne Harris woke the Cowboys up a little with a nifty punt return that gave Romo needed field position in the wake of Dallas’ wide receivers unit turning into a hospital ward. It was even a three-point game with three minutes left and Dallas with a chance for an exceedingly improbable NFC East-clinching drive. Of course, as it had to happen, Romo threw one of those devastating, backbreaking interceptions he’s unfortunately become synonymous with and the Redskins get to see if they can stretch their seven-game winning streak into eight in the playoffs.

3. We’ll talk a lot about Washington later in the week, so let’s get some final thoughts on Dallas’ season down here. The problems facing Botox Jerry’s roster right now are perhaps at their most numerous than in any time in the past decade. Contrary to what you saw last night, the one thing the Cowboys were generally good at this year was throwing the ball: Romo’s the acknowledged master of terrible interceptions but even in possibly his worst season as a starter he’s been an excellent quarterback. The issues are everywhere else: the offensive line has descended into a black hole of crap, DeMarco Murray and Sean Lee are potential superstars when they’re not hurt (this is only an issue because they’re always hurt), their safeties still take horrible routes to the ball, and you’ll find more depth in a Rick Reilly column than at any position other than quarterback on the Dallas roster. Will they be good enough to once again challenge for the NFC East title in 2013? Probably. Is this team close to being a true Super Bowl contender? Not really.

Minnesota 37, Green Bay 34

Adjusted Yards per Play: 7.94 – Minnesota, 7.13 – Green Bay

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Minnesota 37.43, Green Bay 31.07

Quick Thoughts: 

1. Since this game turned out to be one of the best of the year, allow me to expound just a little further on this game at this expense of some of the non-playoff-related contests later on. I know. You’re devastated there won’t be a full column on Oakland-San Diego. I’m with you, buddy.

2. With that out of the way, HOLY CRAP WAS THIS A GOOD GAME. The Packers and Vikings are unnaturally worthy foils for each other because of the Packers’ perennially poor run defense. Even during their Super Bowl run, Green Bay has always had issues stopping the run even when they’ve been great against the pass. Is that a potential issue against Minnesota, a team that somehow averages more yards per play on the ground than through the air? I would say probably so. Hence, if Adrian Peterson looks like Superman against normal defenses, he becomes…Superduperman against the Pack? Give me a break, it’s early. Perhaps even more noteworthy was Christian Ponder’s sudden transformation into a competent NFL quarterback – without that, the Vikings still would have been sunk because the Packers’ passing game finally regained the spirit of ’11 and unleashed a reign of terror on Vikings’ fans psyches over the last three quarters. That last back shoulder throw from Rodgers to Nelson to (briefly) tie the game at 34? OH MY GOODNESS.

3. We would also be remiss if we didn’t note the unintentional comedy duo of Jordy Nelson and Mike McCarthy, who JUST NOW learned that he’s allowed to challenge plays and decided to throw the red flag after a turnover – which, as Jim Schwartz would tell you, ain’t always the best course of action. Nelson’s stealthy pickup of the flag and even-handed explanation of the situation to McCarthy was priceless, as was their hearty chuckle after the problem resolved itself in a manner most agreeable to their interests. Good times! However, as a Bears fan I must point out that I EFFING. HATE. THE PACKERS. Go beat Green Bay by 40 in the first round, Minnesota.

Chicago 26, Detroit 24

Adjusted Yards per Play: 6.31 – Chicago, 3.84 – Detroit

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Chicago 30.65, Detroit 17.28

Quick Thought: My buddy Mark Murphy tends to get WAY DOWN on the Bears whenever something bad happens to them, such as a loss or blowing a 7-1 start and failing to make the playoffs. So his adamant claims that the Bears won’t contend for another five years aren’t particularly surprising. I must admit, however, that I agree with him on wanting Lovie Smith’s ouster. One playoff trip in six seasons ain’t too good.

Indianapolis 28, Houston 16

Adjusted Yards per Play: 5.24 – Indianapolis, 4.70 – Houston

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Indianapolis 23.21, Houston 20.14

Quick Thought: Good for Chuck Pagano. The standing ovation he received from the Lucas Oil Stadium crowd before the opening kickoff was a genuinely inspirational moment, as has been just about everything he’s said over the past three months.

NY Giants 42, Philadelphia 7

Adjusted Yards per Play: 8.91 – NY Giants, 4.49 – Philadelphia

AY/P Projected Point Totals: NY Giants 36.91, Philadelphia 20.85

Quick Thought: If the Giants were in the AFC, where would you rank them? Below Denver and New England, for sure, but after that they’d probably be the scariest team to face in the playoffs. You could make the same argument for the Bears, Cowboys and maybe even the Rams, Panthers and Saints. Tough time to be a good-but-not-great team in the NFC.

Denver 38, Kansas City 3

Adjusted Yards per Play: 7.08 – Denver, 2.48 – Kansas City

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Denver 38.43, Kansas City 8.50

Quick Thought: Adrian Peterson’s freaking amazing, but Peyton Manning’s your 2012 Most Valuable Player. Somehow. 4659 yards, 68.6% completion percentage (the highest of his career), 37 touchdowns against 11 interceptions, a league-leading 7.89 Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt – all in all, his best season since 2006. Absolutely incredible.

New England 28, Miami 0

Adjusted Yards per Play: 6.97 – New England, 2.83 – Miami

AY/P Projected Point Totals: New England 37.34, Miami 11.52

Quick Thought: Everybody and their grandmother is now penciling a Pats-Broncos AFC Championship Game, which of course means we’re going to get Bengals-Ravens for the Super Bowl instead. “Dalton! Flacco! It’s the AFC Championship on CBS! PLEASE DON’T CHANGE THE CHANNEL.”

San Francisco 27, Arizona 13

Adjusted Yards per Play: 6.97 – San Francisco, 3.53 – Arizona

AY/P Projected Point Totals: San Francisco 33.36, Arizona 13.36

Quick Thought: Colin Kaepernick ended up finishing second in the league in Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt. He threw 500 fewer passes than Tom Brady, but still! NOT BAD.

Seattle 20, St. Louis 13

Adjusted Yards per Play: 7.31 – Seattle, 5.02 – St. Louis

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Seattle 28.72, St. Louis 21.87

Quick Thought: Didn’t take long for Jeff Fisher to turn the Rams into Tennessee Slightly Northwest. Play ugly, be a pain in the keester, keep it close, maybe win the game. Nobody’s better at keeping a team perpetually around .500. Enjoy the next 17 years, St. Louis!

Cincinnati 23, Baltimore 17

Adjusted Yards per Play: 4.27 – Cincinnati, 4.18 – Baltimore

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Cincinnati 14.95, Baltimore 24.78

Quick Thought: I ended up losing the Pigskin Pick ‘Em group to Lucas by two games – partly because Tony Romo enjoys screwing with people who bet on the Cowboys, but also because Tyrod Taylor threw a late pick-six to Carlos Dunlap and gave Cincinnati a late cover in a game they were getting thoroughly outplayed in. NO I’M NOT BITTER WHY DO YOU ASK?

Carolina 44, New Orleans 38

Adjusted Yards per Play: 7.91 – Carolina, 7.56 – New Orleans

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Carolina 41.81, New Orleans 34.02

Quick Thought: The two likeliest 2013 NFC South winners, in my opinion. The Panthers will likely rebound from their terrible close-game performance this year (as long as they keep Ron Rivera far, far away from the Late Game Decision button) and the Saints will go from having a couple of guys who had no idea what they were doing to one of the five best coaches in the league. That counts as an upgrade, in my opinion.

Tampa Bay 22, Atlanta 17

Adjusted Yards per Play: 5.55 – Tampa Bay, 5.13 – Atlanta

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Tampa Bay 25.77, Atlanta 22.72

Quick Thought: Because Atlanta looked so good the two previous weeks against the Giants and Lions, I won’t give them crap this week for losing to Tampa Bay at home in a game they were MOST DEFINITELY TRYING TO WIN. I’m a nice guy like that.

Pittsburgh 24, Cleveland 10

Adjusted Yards per Play: 5.13 – Pittsburgh, 2.34 – Cleveland

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Pittsburgh 19.42, Cleveland 10.36

Quick Thought: It’s entirely possible that the following is because of my nonexistent expectations for him, but I was actually pleasantly surprised by Thad Lewis. He seemed remotely competent! Of course, maybe that’s just the magic of Pat Shurmur: any quarterback he coaches plays at a remotely competent level and no further. Maybe that’s why he’s getting fired?

San Diego 24, Oakland 21

Adjusted Yards per Play: 5.00 – San Diego, 4.91 – Oakland

AY/P Projected Point Totals: San Diego 17.86, Oakland 20.00

Quick Thought: SSLYAR received four visits yesterday from Google hits for the term “Jon Gruden poop.” All I can say is: I’m glad I’ve found a kindred spirit out there.

Buffalo 28, NY Jets 9

Adjusted Yards per Play: 6.04 – Buffalo, 3.29 – NY Jets

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Buffalo 24.59, NY Jets 16.92

Quick Thought: Here’s hoping for a better 2013 for you, Timmy.

Tennessee 38, Jacksonville 20

Adjusted Yards per Play: 4.73 – Tennessee, 3.94 – Jacksonville

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Tennessee 17.23, Jacksonville 19.98

Quick Thought: What a crazy game. Tennessee had four return touchdowns in a five minute span and then also gave up a punt block touchdown late in the game, too. Maybe if you two had been doing these things all season, people would be more likely to watch your games, guys! Keep that in mind for 2013.

Game of the Week: Cowboys vs. Redskins plus the rest of the Week 17 Preview

Doesn’t it always seem like it comes down to the last game of the season for the Cowboys? Four out of the last five years, Dallas has played Week 17 games that have determined a playoff spot and/or the NFC East title. They grabbed destiny by the balls in 2009, blowing out Philadelphia to take the NFC East. In 2008 and 2011, however: things didn’t work out so well for them: they got humiliated by the Eagles (2008) and trounced by the Giants (2011). Now they travel to Washington in an attempt to even up their record in these high-stakes Week 17 matchups. Does Cowboys-Redskins for the NFC East championship sound like an agreeable Game of the Week choice to all of you? Good, because that’s what we’re going with…

Who: Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Redskins

Where: FedEx Field, Landover, MD

When: 7:30 P.M., Sunday, December 30th

Network: NBC (Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth, Michele Tafoya)

Key Storylines:

1. What will Dallas do differently against RGIII this time? You may remember Robert Griffin III playing so well against the Cowboys in their Thanksgiving Day matchup that he literally set anyone who touched ablaze immediately. To paraphrase Sir Rasheed Wallace: stat don’t lie. RGIII went 19 of 27 for 304 yards, 4 touchdowns and 1 interception and made several OH MY SWEET LORD THAT’S BEAUTIFUL throws in the Redskins’ 38-31victory. What different strategies does Cowboys defensive coordinator Rob Ryan have in mind for this go-around? It’s tough to pinpoint an easy solution for Dallas, defensively. If they sit everyone back in coverage, Mike and Kyle Shanahan will be more than willing to just run the zone read with RGIII and Alfred Morris and pick six or seven yards a pop on the ground all day. If they crowd the line of scrimmage trying to take the run away, then the deep play-action pass to Washington’s many inconsistent yet speedy wide receivers will put an inordinate amount of stress on safety Gerald Sensabaugh, who sucks to begin with. Time to dig deep into that Ryan family playbook and come up with something crazy, Rob.
2. Will Tony Romo consider playing BOTH halves of this game? Tony was on fire in the second half of the Thanksgiving game, throwing for 334 yards and three touchdowns as he led the Cowboys to 28 points. In one half! That’s pretty good and would have been even better if Dallas hadn’t fallen behind 28-3 at halftime. Romo’s had virtually no help from the running game this year – the Cowboys are ranked 31st in yards per carry – so he, along with Dez Bryant and Jason Witten, have had to carry the Dallas offense on his back through the passing game to the point where he’s only 315 yards away from 5,000 for the season. If he plays as efficiently as he has the past two weeks against Pittsburgh and New Orleans, then Dallas will have no troubles offensively Sunday night. And that would be good because, as we said above, it’s extremely questionable as to whether the Cowboys can slow down the Redskins’ offense.
3. For all (or a significant portion of) the marbles. The Redskins can actually get into the playoffs even if they lose Sunday night: losses by Minnesota and Chicago would assure them at least a wild-card entry and a fall-back option should the doo-doo hit the proverbial fan against the Cowboys. On the other hand, fall-back options are for sissies and Frenchmen. If you have a chance to win your division, secure a home game in the first round of the playoffs AND send the Cowboys home for the season…well, that’s quite a haul right there. And as for Dallas, they’ve got all their eggs tied up in this NFC East basket, so they might as well try and win this one, too. What a loss would mean for the job security of Jason Garrett and Tony Romo is a question better suited for after they lose. For now, let’s just sit back and get psyched for the last game of the 2012 regular season – chances are it’ll be entertaining.

Steve Stone’s Said in Stone Cold Lock of the Game: “Rader just went right down the line through six or seven guys and slapped them right on the side of the face, then ran back laughing to his third base position.”

Projected Final Score: Redskins 30, Cowboys 28

Team To Bet On If Gambling Were Legal: Cowboys (+3.5)

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Below are SSLYAR’s Week 17 NFL Projections, ranked by the author’s subjective interest in watching each game. Home teams are italicized; projected winners against the spread are underlined. To see which games are being shown in your area, check out the506′s TV distribution maps. Our guest analyst this week is the legendary former coach of the Green Bay Packers (and Washington Redskins): Vince Lombardi. 

1. Washington Redskins 30, Dallas Cowboys28: “Winners never quit and quitters never win.”
2. Green Bay Packers 21, Minnesota Vikings 20: “Winning is not a sometime thing; it’s an all time thing. You don’t win once in a while, you don’t do things right once in a while, you do them right all the time. Winning is habit. Unfortunately, so is losing.”
3. Detroit Lions 24, Chicago Bears 20: “Football is like life – it requires perseverance, self-denial, hard work, sacrifice, dedication and respect for authority.”
4. Houston Texans27, Indianapolis Colts 21: “Dictionary is the only place that success comes before work. Hard work is the price we must pay for success. I think you can accomplish anything if you’re willing to pay the price.”
5. New York Giants 28, Philadelphia Eagles23: “Perfection is not attainable, but if we chase perfection we can catch excellence.”
6. Denver Broncos 28, Kansas City Chiefs14: “If winning isn’t everything, why do they keep score?”
7. New England Patriots 30, Miami Dolphins 20: “People who work together will win, whether it be against complex football defenses, or the problems of modern society.”
8. San Francisco 49ers 24, Arizona Cardinals 7: “Confidence is contagious. So is lack of confidence.”
9. Seattle Seahawks 30, St. Louis Rams21: “Show me a good loser, and I’ll show you a loser.”
10. Cincinnati Bengals 24, Baltimore Ravens 23: “Leaders aren’t born they are made. And they are made just like anything else, through hard work. And that’s the price we’ll have to pay to achieve that goal, or any goal.”
11. Carolina Panthers31, New Orleans Saints 30: “The quality of a person’s life is in direct proportion to their commitment to excellence, regardless of their chosen field of endeavor.”
12. Atlanta Falcons 31, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 26: “Coaches who can outline plays on a black board are a dime a dozen. The ones who win get inside their player and motivate.”
13. Pittsburgh Steelers 20, Cleveland Browns 13: “Once you agree upon the price you and your family must pay for success, it enables you to ignore the minor hurts, the opponent’s pressure, and the temporary failures.”
14. San Diego Chargers 21, Oakland Raiders 14: “The measure of who we are is what we do with what we have.”
15. Buffalo Bills 23, New York Jets 16: “A school without football is in danger of deteriorating into a medieval study hall.”
16. Tennessee Titans 24, Jacksonville Jaguars 19: “I don’t think there’s a punch-line scheduled, is there?”

2012 Record Thus Far: 158-81-1 (11-5 last week)

2012 Record Against the Spread Thus Far: 125-115 (9-7 last week)

Week 13 Power Rankings: Welcome to Rick Steves’ NFL

Welcome to the Week 13 edition of Someone Still Loves You Alberto Riveron’s weekly NFL power rankings. To help us make sense of what happened during this last batch of NFL action, we’ve asked European travel expert and PBS television personality Rick Steves to share his thoughts with us below. Please enjoy.

Hello! And welcome to Rick Steves’ NFL. This week, we’re traveling to four of the biggest and brightest gameday experiences that the National Football League has to offer today. Before this half-hour is through, we’ll try some hot chicken and honky tonk hoedowns while in a haze at LP Field in Nashville, learn all about bratwurst and cheese curds while we get misty-eyed at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, enjoy the calming Pacific breezes and Northern Lights of CenturyLink Field in Seattle, and make new friends and New Purple Power with the delightful locals in the Black Hole of O.co Coliseum in Oakland. It’s a triumphant tour across the gridirons of America, one that will hopefully inspire YOU to worm your way from the winding rivers of Tennessee to the astonishing views of San Francisco Bay. Let’s get started, shall we?

LP Field: Nashville, TN. A city long known for its big country ballads and bigger hair, Nashville provides a delightful romp for those seeking a respite from the creepy hillbillies that populate the Appalachian Valley. And with the recent arrival of the NHL’s Nashville Predators and NFL’s Tennessee Titans, Music City U.S.A. now has the professional franchises to attract the sporting enthusiast as well as the bud enthusiast. Bud Adams, that is. I make my way early to LP Field this Sunday morning so I can participate in the tailgating ritual that is commonplace amongst America’s football-loving attendees. I smile bemusedly when I encounter a family of six line-dancing to the Kinky Friedman hit “Get Your Biscuits in the Oven and Your Buns in the Bed” and am overwhelmed with joy when they invite me to participate. For the next fifteen minutes, we laugh and stuff our pie-holes with the best hot chicken this travel enthusiast has ever tasted – all while undergoing the Boot Scootin’ Boogie. I thank the family for their time and ask if they’d enjoy some Silver Haze. They glance back at me with confused looks on their faces, but I walk away with a smile on my face and a ten-pound belt buckle around my waist. Sometimes we all need a little Southern hospitality in our lives!

Lambeau Field: Green Bay, WI. The rolling, hearty farmlands of the Midwest provide an enticing backdrop for my journey to Titletown. Green Bay, Wisconsin may only hold a scant 100,000 people within its town proper, but its citizens have a combined weight of a city three times that size and hearty dispositions to match. My arrival in the Lambeau Field parking lot is greeted with the enticing aroma of approximately 4,000,000 bratwursts being grilled concurrently. My taste buds becoming aroused and overwhelmed, I meet a jovial young man named Joey Konowalski and ask him which type of herbal enhancements go best with a sausage of such exquisite taste. After sampling three different strains to accompany our brats, all Joey and I can agree on is the overwhelming satisfaction we feel in our stomachs! I am later ejected from the game for attempting to eat a fan’s giant Cheesehead hat, but I have already learned all I need to know about the wonders and spectacles that can occur while rooting for the Green and Gold.

CenturyLink Field: Seattle, WA. The remarkable scenery of Puget Sound lies mere miles from my own residence in Edmonds, so you could say my trip to downtown Emerald City is a bit of a home game for me. If there’s one thing that I know my fellow Seattleites love, it’s coffee. If there’s another thing I know they love, it’s mediocre grunge music from the 1990s. And if we eventually work our way down the list far enough, we find that Seattleites love watching their Seahawks play. The gameday experience at CenturyLink Field remains second-to-none in the NFL. The crowd noise the 12th Man creates while the opponent possesses the ball can be raucous and overwhelming – so overwhelming, you may wish for a quiet moment to mellow and get away from it all. Luckily, thanks to the successful passing of Initiative 502, it’s now reasonable and legal to do so! I recommend sneaking your way out to the Alaskan Way Viaduct and gazing into the deep, penetrating beauty of Elliott Bay while reaching your own personal nirvana. No Kurt Cobain necessary!

O.co Coliseum: Oakland, CA. Finally, we end our trip this week down in the gorgeous, fertile wetlands of the San Francisco Bay area. And after seeing the numerous landmarks and inviting sights in and around the Bay Area, we suck up our pride and head over to Oakland for this afternoon’s Raider game. I’m especially excited for today’s contest because I’ve purchased tickets in the Black Hole section of the stadium, where only the most hardened of Raider enthusiasts dare to go. I admit I feel underdressed when I arrive in a plaid shirt and khakis and no black paint or skulls to be found anywhere on my body, but I feel I make a new friend when I slap my neighbor’s third beer of the day out of his hand and remind him that enjoyment can only be found in moderation. After getting dumped upside down into a trash cart in the stadium parking lot, I realize this is not the case. Still, with a little help from my herbal cigarette, I can’t help but admire the fighting spirit and palpable passion of these Oakland Raider fans. Perhaps next time I’ll let you gulp down that beer, friend!

Well, that’s all the time we have for today. I’m glad you could join me on my scenic trip across the gridirons of America. I’m Rick Steves and, until next time, keep on traveling. Y’all come back now!

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A quick thought on Monday Night’s game…

Washington 17, NY Giants 16

Adjusted Yards per Play: 6.92 – Washington, 6.51 – NY Giants

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Washington 25.70, NY Giants 29.30

Quick Thought: I’m going to try my hardest not to turn this blog into a RGIII fan page, but darn it if he’s not making it really hard not to. When he has just a sliver of space, he’s dangerous; when you completely bite on the handoff to the running back on the zone read play, like Jason Pierre-Paul did in the third quarter last night, then he’s lethal. It’s so rare to see a rookie quarterback drafted by a team with the PERFECT offensive philosophy to take full advantage of his skill set. Then again, just about everything about RGIII is rare. Obviously no one knows how the rest of his career will pan out; he may never surpass this moment or Dan Snyder might accidentally run him over with his Hummer or something. But right now? Right now, he looks like the guy who could be the face of the NFL for the next ten years. He’s not bad.

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Here’s SSLYAR’s Week 13 rankings by Adjusted Yards per Play Differential, which is a descriptive metric that is designed to give an accurate representation of how each team has played thus far. There’s not a whole lot of movement in the rankings this week: the top five teams from last week remain in their exact same spots this week and the only teams to rise or fall more than one spot are Atlanta (rising from #11 to #9), New Orleans (falling from #19 to #22) and Chicago (falling from #6 to #8). You want more movement in your power rankings, folks, go read ESPN.com’s and let John Clayton explain to you why the Falcons are the best team in the league.

Adjusted Yards per Play Differential (league average: 0.00)

1. San Francisco: 2.20 (last week: 1, high–>low: 1–>11)
2. New England: 1.73 (last week: 2, high–>low: 2–>8)
3. Houston: 1.66 (last week: 3, high–>low: 1–>5)
4. Denver: 1.30 (last week: 4, high–>low: 4–>19)
5. Baltimore: 1.09 (last week: 5, high–>low: 1–>9)
6. NY Giants: 0.95 (last week: 7, high–>low: 4–>26)
7. Washington: 0.91 (last week: 8, high–>low: 5–>15)
8. Chicago: 0.89 (last week: 6, high–>low: 1–>14)
9. Atlanta: 0.73 (last week: 11, high–>low: 1–>12)
10. Tampa Bay: 0.71 (last week: 9, high–>low: 7–>29)
11. Cincinnati: 0.66 (last week: 10, high–>low: 10–>32)
12. Green Bay: 0.50 (last week: 12, high–>low: 7–>22)
13. Carolina: 0.44 (last week: 14, high–>low: 9–>23)
14. Seattle: 0.44 (last week: 13, high–>low: 11–>19)
15. Pittsburgh: 0.11 (last week: 15, high–>low: 8–>24)
16. Detroit: 0.10 (last week: 16, high–>low: 11–>22)
17. Cleveland: 0.02 (last week: 17, high–>low: 17–>27)
18. Minnesota: -0.19 (last week: 18, high–>low: 7–>18)
19. St. Louis: -0.33 (last week: 20, high–>low: 16–>28)
20. San Diego: -0.39 (last week: 21, high–>low: 7–>25)
21. Arizona: -0.43 (last week: 22, high–>low: 10–>22)
22. New Orleans: -0.45 (last week: 19, high–>low: 18–>29)
23. Dallas: -0.53 (last week: 23, high–>low: 7–>23)
24. Buffalo: -0.63 (last week: 25, high–>low: 5–>30)
25. Miami: -0.66 (last week: 24, high–>low: 18–>31)
26. NY Jets: -0.97 (last week: 26, high–>low: 12–>30)
27. Tennessee: -1.35 (last week: 27, high–>low: 26–>31)
28. Jacksonville: -1.40 (last week: 28, high–>low: 23–>31)
29. Oakland: -1.41 (last week: 29, high–>low: 16–>30)
30. Indianapolis: -1.47 (last week: 30, high–>low: 27–>31)
31. Philadelphia: -1.63 (last week: 31, high–>low: 8–>31)
32. Kansas City: -2.73 (last week: 32, high–>low: 30–>32)

Offensive Adjusted Yards per Play (league average: 4.99)

1. Washington: 6.36 (last week: 2, high–>low: 1–>6)
2. New England: 6.30 (last week: 1, high–>low: 1–>12)
3. Tampa Bay: 6.16 (last week: 3, high–>low: 1–>29)
4. San Francisco: 6.02 (last week: 4, high–>low: 1–>12)
5. New Orleans: 5.80 (last week: 5, high–>low: 2–>22)
6. Houston: 5.75 (last week: 6, high–>low: 6–>11)
7. NY Giants: 5.70 (last week: 8, high–>low: 1–>17)
8. Atlanta: 5.63 (last week: 7, high–>low: 2–>9)
9. Green Bay: 5.51 (last week: 11, high–>low: 6–>24)
10. Baltimore: 5.50 (last week: 9, high–>low: 1–>10)
11. Denver: 5.46 (last week: 10, high–>low: 10–>23)
12. Detroit: 5.41 (last week: 13, high–>low: 9–>18)
13. Carolina: 5.32 (last week: 14, high–>low: 4–>22)
14. Cincinnati: 5.21 (last week: 12, high–>low: 7–>25)
15. Seattle: 5.04 (last week: 15, high–>low: 15–>30)
16. Dallas: 5.01 (last week: 19, high–>low: 3–>25)
17. Buffalo: 4.89 (last week: 16, high–>low: 5–>20)
18. Oakland: 4.81 (last week: 21, high–>low: 10–>23)
19. Indianapolis: 4.79 (last week: 20, high–>low: 16–>28)
20. St. Louis: 4.77 (last week: 17, high–>low: 13–>28)
21. Minnesota: 4.70 (last week: 22, high–>low: 9–>24)
22. Cleveland: 4.47 (last week: 26, high–>low: 22–>32)
23. Pittsburgh: 4.46 (last week: 23, high–>low: 9–>24)
24. Tennessee: 4.46 (last week: 18, high–>low: 14–>27)
25. Miami: 4.35 (last week: 24, high–>low: 19–>31)
26. Chicago: 4.28 (last week: 28, high–>low: 6–>30)
27. Philadelphia: 4.22 (last week: 29, high–>low: 26–>32)
28. San Diego: 4.20 (last week: 25, high–>low: 9–>28)
29. Jacksonville: 4.09 (last week: 27, high–>low: 16–>31)
30. NY Jets: 3.72 (last week: 30, high–>low: 8–>32)
31. Kansas City: 3.53 (last week: 32, high–>low: 20–>32)
32. Arizona: 3.51 (last week: 31, high–>low: 26–>32)

Defensive Adjusted Yards per Play (league average: 4.98)

1. Chicago: 3.39 (last week: 1, high–>low: 1–>5)
2. San Francisco: 3.82 (last week: 2, high–>low: 2–>20)
3. Arizona: 3.94 (last week: 4, high–>low: 2–>6)
4. Houston: 4.09 (last week: 6, high–>low: 1–>6)
5. Denver: 4.16 (last week: 3, high–>low: 3–>20)
6. Pittsburgh: 4.35 (last week: 7, high–>low: 6–>23)
7. Baltimore: 4.41 (last week: 9, high–>low: 7–>16)
8. Cleveland: 4.45 (last week: 5, high–>low: 4–>21)
9. Cincinnati: 4.55 (last week: 12, high–>low: 9–>32)
10. New England: 4.58 (last week: 10, high–>low: 3–>14)
11. San Diego: 4.59 (last week: 13, high–>low: 6–>17)
12. Seattle: 4.60 (last week: 8, high–>low: 4–>12)
13. NY Jets: 4.69 (last week: 16, high–>low: 9–>21)
14. NY Giants: 4.75 (last week: 11, high–>low: 8–>30)
15. Carolina: 4.88 (last week: 14, high–>low: 12–>26)
16. Minnesota: 4.89 (last week: 15, high–>low: 6–>17)
17. Atlanta: 4.90 (last week: 19, high–>low: 3–>21)
18. Miami: 5.01 (last week: 18, high–>low: 8–>23)
19. Green Bay: 5.01 (last week: 17, high–>low: 7–>28)
20. St. Louis: 5.09 (last week: 20, high–>low: 8–>24)
21. Detroit: 5.31 (last week: 21, high–>low: 12–>23)
22. Washington: 5.45 (last week: 22, high–>low: 11–>27)
23. Tampa Bay: 5.45 (last week: 24, high–>low: 15–>26)
24. Jacksonville: 5.49 (last week: 25, high–>low: 24–>27)
25. Buffalo: 5.53 (last week: 27, high–>low: 12–>32)
26. Dallas: 5.53 (last week: 23, high–>low: 7–>26)
27. Tennessee: 5.81 (last week: 28, high–>low: 26–>30)
28. Philadelphia: 5.85 (last week: 26, high–>low: 1–>28)
29. Oakland: 6.21 (last week: 30, high–>low: 19–>31)
30. New Orleans: 6.25 (last week: 32, high–>low: 28–>32)
31. Indianapolis: 6.26 (last week: 31, high–>low: 24–>31)
32. Kansas City: 6.26 (last week: 29, high–>low: 27–>32)

SSLYAR also ranks teams according to Predictive Yards per Play Differential, a metric which doesn’t give as large a penalty or bonus to turnovers or touchdowns, will also take into account strength of schedule and will (theoretically) better able to predict future performance. This metric uses probabilities drawn from research Brian Burke did back in 2008 in trying to determine which stats best correlated with future play. For example, because offensive performance is much more consistent from week-to-week than defensive performance, offensive play is more highly prioritized in these rankings.

San Francisco no longer holds the title of both Best Offense and Best Defense in this week’s PY/P rankings – the red-hot Redskins offense has usurped their offensive throne for now – but they’re still comfortably in the lead overall despite their overtime loss to St. Louis (who might be better than you think, considering they come in at #9 this week). Denver remains a solid #2 (no pun originally intended, but I’ll leave that phrasing in there for all you toilet humor enthusiasts) with New England coming up behind them at #3. Seattle gets the biggest bump of the week for their overtime win over Chicago that was more commanding than the final score would have indicated, rising to #4 from #9. And Carolina learns that there’s always a price to be paid for losing to Kansas City, dropping from #3 to a more sensible #7.

Predictive Yards per Play Differential (league average: 0.996203)

1. San Francisco: 1.90111 (last week: 1, high–>low: 1–>3)
2. Denver: 1.663329 (last week: 2, high–>low: 1–>6)
3. New England: 1.418436 (last week: 4, high–>low: 3–>13)
4. Seattle: 1.385887 (last week: 9, high–>low: 3–>16)
5. Washington: 1.374842 (last week: 7, high–>low: 5–>18)
6. NY Giants: 1.359964 (last week: 6, high–>low: 3–>12)
7. Carolina: 1.350382 (last week: 3, high–>low: 3–>18)
8. Green Bay: 1.329239 (last week: 5, high–>low: 3–>20)
9. St. Louis: 1.238601 (last week: 12, high–>low: 9–>28)
10. Detroit: 1.211152 (last week: 8, high–>low: 5–>10)
11. Houston: 1.173845 (last week: 10, high–>low: 2–>12)
12. Tampa Bay: 1.153563 (last week: 14, high–>low: 12–>30)
13. Baltimore: 1.14988 (last week: 13, high–>low: 1–>13)
14. Dallas: 1.128576 (last week: 11, high–>low: 2–>17)
15. Minnesota: 1.067496 (last week: 16, high–>low: 9–>18)
16. Cincinnati: 1.048925 (last week: 15, high–>low: 8–>24)
17. New Orleans: 1.026542 (last week: 18, high–>low: 15–>23)
18. Chicago: 1.004845 (last week: 19, high–>low: 2–>19)
19. Atlanta: 0.987677 (last week: 17, high–>low: 4–>20)
20. Buffalo: 0.917924 (last week: 20, high–>low: 14–>27)
21. Pittsburgh: 0.831308 (last week: 22, high–>low: 14–>24)
22. NY Jets: 0.766968 (last week: 21, high–>low: 19–>32)
23. Miami: 0.734513 (last week: 27, high–>low: 11–>30)
24. Tennessee: 0.673208 (last week: 24, high–>low: 21–>26)
25. Philadelphia: 0.668282 (last week: 25, high–>low: 10–>25)
26. Cleveland: 0.655697 (last week: 23, high–>low: 23–>30)
27. Arizona: 0.61582 (last week: 26, high–>low: 23–>27)
28. San Diego: 0.614968 (last week: 28, high–>low: 22–>30)
29. Oakland: 0.517003 (last week: 29, high–>low: 19–>29)
30. Indianapolis: 0.43964 (last week: 30, high–>low: 17–>30)
31. Jacksonville: 0.243802 (last week: 31, high–>low: 31–>32)
32. Kansas City: 0.178592 (last week: 32, high–>low: 27–>32)

Offensive Predictive Yards per Play (league average: 2.853477)

1. Washington: 3.393382 (last week: 2, high–>low: 1–>8)
2. San Francisco: 3.341746 (last week: 1, high–>low: 1–>13)
3. New England: 3.326328 (last week: 3, high–>low: 3–>9)
4. New Orleans: 3.282451 (last week: 4, high–>: 2–>11)
5. NY Giants: 3.243175 (last week: 5, high–>low: 1–>5)
6. Tampa Bay: 3.22898 (last week: 6, high–>low: 6–>26)
7. Detroit: 3.184341 (last week: 7, high–>low: 3–>11)
8. Green Bay: 3.157624 (last week: 9, high–>low: 1–>22)
9. Denver: 3.137459 (last week: 8, high–>low: 3–>12)
10. Dallas: 3.093084 (last week: 10, high–>low: 5–>20)
11. Carolina: 3.076335 (last week: 12, high–>low: 7–>17)
12. Seattle: 3.040886 (last week: 18, high–>low: 12–>25)
13. St. Louis: 3.036876 (last week: 15, high–>low: 13–>28)
14. Atlanta: 2.979537 (last week: 11, high–>low: 4–>16)
15. Baltimore: 2.961211 (last week: 16, high–>low: 1–>16)
16. Buffalo: 2.937309 (last week: 17, high–>low: 9–>17)
17. Cincinnati: 2.913688 (last week: 14, high–>low: 6–>20)
18. Houston: 2.912157 (last week: 13, high–>low: 10–>19)
19. Minnesota: 2.811834 (last week: 19, high–>low: 19–>25)
20. Oakland: 2.811531 (last week: 21, high–>low: 12–>21)
21. Tennessee: 2.716748 (last week: 20, high–>low: 14–>24)
22. Indianapolis: 2.637721 (last week: 22, high–>low: 11–>24)
23. Philadelphia: 2.591343 (last week: 24, high–>low: 19–>27)
24. Chicago: 2.539795 (last week: 26, high–>low: 10–>26)
25. NY Jets: 2.512129 (last week: 23, high–>low: 23–>31)
26. Miami: 2.48232 (last week: 25, high–>low: 16–>31)
27. Cleveland: 2.407945 (last week: 27, high–>low: 27–>30)
28. Pittsburgh: 2.407821 (last week: 29, high–>low: 17–>29)
29. San Diego: 2.326424 (last week: 28, high–>low: 27–>31)
30. Kansas City: 2.308592 (last week: 32, high–>low: 24–>32)
31. Arizona: 2.268809 (last week: 30, high–>low: 27–>32)
32. Jacksonville: 2.199838 (last week: 31, high–>low: 28–>32)

Defensive Predictive Yards per Play (league average: 1.857273)

1. San Francisco: 1.440636 (last week: 1, high–>low: 1–>5)
2. Denver: 1.47413 (last week: 3, high–>low: 2–>11)
3. Chicago: 1.53495 (last week: 2, high–>low: 1–>5)
4. Pittsburgh: 1.576513 (last week: 4, high–>low: 4–>20)
5. Arizona: 1.65299 (last week: 7, high–>low: 5–>10)
6. Seattle: 1.654999 (last week: 5, high–>low: 2–>6)
7. San Diego: 1.711456 (last week: 11, high–>low: 7–>17)
8. Carolina: 1.725953 (last week: 6, high–>low: 6–>25)
9. Houston: 1.738313 (last week: 12, high–>low: 2–>12)
10. Minnesota: 1.744337 (last week: 8, high–>low: 3–>13)
11. NY Jets: 1.74516 (last week: 13, high–>low: 11–>21)
12. Miami: 1.747808 (last week: 16, high–>low: 8–>16)
13. Cleveland: 1.752249 (last week: 9, high–>low: 9–>22)
14. St. Louis: 1.798275 (last week: 15, high–>low: 8–>18)
15. Baltimore: 1.811332 (last week: 14, high–>low: 12–>20)
16. Green Bay: 1.828384 (last week: 10, high–>low: 10–>17)
17. Cincinnati: 1.864763 (last week: 19, high–>low: 17–>28)
18. NY Giants: 1.883211 (last week: 20, high–>low: 18–>32)
19. New England: 1.907892 (last week: 23, high–>low: 16–>23)
20. Philadelphia: 1.923061 (last week: 18, high–>low: 5–>20)
21. Jacksonville: 1.956036 (last week: 22, high–>low: 16–>24)
22. Dallas: 1.964509 (last week: 17, high–>low: 6–>22)
23. Detroit: 1.973188 (last week: 21, high–>low: 10–>23)
24. Atlanta: 1.99186 (last week: 26, high–>low: 14–>27)
25. Washington: 2.01854 (last week: 25, high–>low: 24–>32)
26. Buffalo: 2.019385 (last week: 24, high–>low: 23–>32)
27. Tennessee: 2.043541 (last week: 28, high–>low: 25–>28)
28. Tampa Bay: 2.075417 (last week: 29, high–>low: 19–>29)
29. Kansas City: 2.13 (last week: 27, high–>low: 22–>30)
30. Indianapolis: 2.198081 (last week: 30, high–>low: 24–>31)
31. New Orleans: 2.255909 (last week: 32, high–>low: 30–>32)
32. Oakland: 2.294528 (last week: 31, high–>low: 23–>32)

Game of the Week: Giants vs. Redskins plus the rest of the Week 13 Preview

After the thrilling game RGIII and Eli put on back in New Jersey in Week 7, I think we all kind of expected the Giants-Redskins rivalry to return to national prominence in short order. But this quickly? The Giants own a two-game lead over the Redskins heading into their Monday night matchup in Maryland and a win there would virtually eliminate any chance the Redskins have of winning the NFC East. But did you know that the Redskins have an exciting young player who might have something to say about that? In case you haven’t heard of him, Game of the Week will bring him to your attention shortly…

Who: New York Giants vs. Washington Redskins

Where: FedEx Field, Landover, MD

When: 7:30 P.M., Monday, December 3rd

Network: ESPN (Mike Tirico, Jon Gruden, Lisa Salters)

Key Storylines:

1. His name is Robert Lee Griffin III. And he’s really freaking good. Jimmy Johnson is probably going overboard when he states on Fox’s pregame show that RGIII is his league MVP so far this year – the two frontrunners for the award right now probably have to be Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, in some order (what year is it?) – but he’s not going overboard by much. Take a look at the Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt leaders for this season. Brady and Manning have separated themselves somewhat from the pack, but RGIII is nipping at Josh Freeman’s heels for third place in those rankings. Not bad! His interception rate of 1.3% is obviously unsustainable, but even disregarding that all of his passing stats seem to indicate he’s one of the best passers in the league right now. As a rookie. And that’s before we include his 642 rushing yards and (outside) shot at a 1,000 yard season on the ground. Do you think such a player could be considered the Offensive Rookie of the Year?
2. Alas, the Redskins pass defense. You probably assume that the Redskins are among the most efficient teams in the league on offense – and you would be correct. They rank fourth in both net yards per pass attempt and yards per carry. Defensively, they’re also above average against the run, ranking fourteenth in yards per carry allowed. The Achilles’ heel of their defense – and, by extension, their team – has been their pass defense, however, which ranks 24th in net yards per pass attempt. What’s exacerbated this issue is that the Redskins have faced more pass attempts and less rushing attempts than any other team in the league this season. And worst of all, injured star pass rusher Brian Orakpo’s terrible Geico commercials are still in circulation on game days, so the Redskins are getting all of the annoyance but none of the sacks from their top linebacker. Shouldn’t have let his pecs get Orakpoed.
3. The Giants are also participating in this game. And if Eli Manning is on, they’ll likely win because of the Redskins’ aforementioned difficulties in pass defense. What Sunday night’s thoroughly impressive blowout win over the Packers most illustrated, however, was how important safety Kenny Phillips is to Big Blue’s defense. With a healthy Phillips back at strong safety (granted, this is kind of like saying “With a healthy Mark Prior back in the starting rotation), the Giants can use their nickel defense with Antrel Rolle acting as a third linebacker against the run and slot corner against the pass and Stevie Brown focused solely on patrolling center field. It was a defense that no one really figured out in their Super Bowl run last postseason and certainly a defense that the Packers had trouble with last week. Naturally, Phillips re-injured his knee late in the game Sunday and is questionable for Monday night. Would the Giants like him to be on the field at the same time the most exciting young player in the league is lined up across from them? PERHAPS.

Steve Stone’s Said in Stone Cold Lock of the Game: “As it turned out, I had runners at second and third with no play made by anyone. I handed him back his sponge and tried to pitch my way out of it.”

Projected Final Score: Redskins 33, Giants 31

Team To Bet On If Gambling Were Legal: Redskins (+2.5)

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Before we get into the rest of our Week 13 preview, let’s post a quick recap on last night’s Saints-Falcons game…

Atlanta 23, New Orleans 13

Adjusted Yards per Play: 4.79 – Atlanta, 3.12 – New Orleans

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Atlanta 19.50, New Orleans 16.49

Quick Thought: First of all, let’s congratulate Drew Brees on his 54-game passing touchdown streak; the fact that it took a five-interception day to end it probably tells you…well, I’m don’t actually know what it tells you other than he had a crap game. Now that the streak is over, however, I’m sure we’ll hear a bunch of old-timers come out of the woodwork and say that Johnny Unitas’s 47-game streak is still more impressive because he played in a much tougher era for quarterbacks. And that’s undoubtedly true. The thing is, though, while it’s unquestionably easier to gain yards through the air now, the average number of touchdowns thrown in a game hasn’t changed that much since Unitas played. When Unitas was on his streak from 1956 to 1960, the average NFL team threw for 1.1 (1956), 1.2 (1957), 1.5 (1958), 1.4 (1959), and 1.4 (1960) touchdowns per game 1.32. During Brees’s streak, the average NFL team threw for 1.4 (2009), 1.5 (2010), 1.5 (2011), and 1.5 (2012) touchdowns per game. So, on average, quarterbacks in Brees’s era could be expected to throw for .15 more touchdowns per game than quarterbacks in Unitas’s era – a decent advantage, but not an overpowering one. Ultimately, I’m not sure which streak is more impressive; I am, however, sure that both were fairly impressive. I guess.

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Below are SSLYAR’s Week 13 NFL Projections, ranked by the author’s subjective interest in watching each game. Home teams are italicized; projected winners against the spread are underlined. To see which games are being shown in your area, check out the506′s TV distribution maps. Our guest analyst this week is the former emperor of the Mongol Empire, Genghis Khan.

1. Washington Redskins 33, New York Giants 31 (in-depth preview above): “It is not sufficient that I suceed – all others must fail.”
2. Baltimore Ravens 20, Pittsburgh Steelers 14: “With Heaven’s aid I have conquered for you a huge empire. But my life was too short to achieve the conquest of the world. That task is left for you.”
3. Green Bay Packers 26, Minnesota Vikings 21: “I am the punishment of God…If you had not committed great sins, God would not have sent a punishment like me upon you.”
4. Denver Broncos 28, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20: “The greatest happiness is to scatter your enemy, to drive him before you, to see his cities reduced to ashes, to see those who love him shrouded in tears, and to gather into your bosom his wives and daughters.”
5. Seattle Seahawks 17, Chicago Bears 16: “If my body dies, let my body die, but do not let my country die.”
6. Detroit Lions 35, Indianapolis Colts 24: “The Root of Wild Madder.”
7. San Francisco 49ers 24, St. Louis Rams 19: “If unable to abstain from drinking, a man may get drunk three times a month; if he does it more than three times he is culpable; if he gets drunk twice a month it is better; if once a month, this is still more laudable; and if one does not drink at all what can be better? But where can I find such a man? If such a man were found he would be worthy of the highest esteem.”
8. New England Patriots 24, Miami Dolphins 20: “Perhaps my children will live in stone houses and walled towns – Not I.”
9. Cincinnati Bengals 23, San Diego Chargers 21: ““Those who were adept and brave fellows I have made military commanders. Those who were quick and nimble I have made herders of horses. Those who were not adept I have given a small whip and sent to be shepherds.”
10. Dallas Cowboys 28, Philadelphia Eagles 20: ““Heaven grew weary of the excessive pride and luxury of China… I am from the Barbaric North. I wear the same clothing and eat the same food as the cowherds and horse-herders. We make the same sacrifices and we share.. our riches. I look upon the nation as a new-born child and I care for my soldiers as though they were my brothers.”
11. Houston Texans 27, Tennessee Titans 24: ““As my calling is high, the obligations incumbent upon me are also heavy; and I fear that in my ruling there may be something wanting.”
12. Buffalo Bills 28, Jacksonville Jaguars 23: “One arrow alone can be easily broken but many arrows are indestructible.”
13. New York Jets 14, Arizona Cardinals 10: “Be of one mind and one faith, that you may conquer your enemies and lead long and happy lives.”
14. Carolina Panthers 26, Kansas City Chiefs 17: ““Say ye unto the Khwarezmians that I am the sovereign of the sunrise, and [he is] the sovereign of the sunset. Let there be between us a firm treaty of friendship, amity, and peace, and let traders and caravans on both sides come and go.”
15. Oakland Raiders 21, Cleveland Browns 20: “Despite all expectations, the time of my last campaign and of my passing is near. I wish to die at home. Let not my end disarm you, and on no account weep for me, lest the enemy be warned of my death.”

2012 Record Thus Far: 113-63-1 (10-6 last week)

2012 Record Against the Spread Thus Far: 85-92 (8-8 last week)

Game of the Week: Packers vs. Giants plus the rest of the Week 12 Preview

You’re probably aware that this Sunday night’s matchup between the Packers and Giants pits the last two Super Bowl champions against each other. What you may not remember is each team has also been directly responsible for the other’s postseason ouster the last two years. The Packers throttled the Giants in a key Week 16 matchup in 2010 that gave them the tiebreaker for the final wild-card slot over Big Blue. Then, of course, the Giants avenged both that loss and a 2011 regular season loss in a lopsided win over the Packers in last year’s divisional playoffs. All of this to say…THERE’S NO LOVE LOST BETWEEN THESE TWO TEAMS. Is that a good enough cliche to go out on? All right, let’s get into Game of the Week…

Who: Green Bay Packers vs. New York Giants

Where: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ

When: 7:30 P.M., Sunday, November 25th

Network: NBC (Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth, Michele Tafoya)

Key Storylines:

1. Why do the Giants always fade in the second half? Football Outsiders and Grantland’s Bill Barnwell have noted in the past that the Giants’ second-half struggles are usually due to a combination of a brutal schedule and a pass defense that tends to run out of gas late in the season. Currently, however, the biggest reason for the Giant’s two-game losing streak is the play of Eli Manning, who has gone from serious MVP contender to slightly above-average quarterback over the course of three games. To be fair, his receivers haven’t given him too much help; Victor Cruz’s production has fallen back down to league-average efficiency and it’s fair to wonder how healthy Hakeem Nicks has been all season, given the drop from his normal level of play. But if you even saw just a few highlights from the Giants’ games against the Steelers or Bengals, you know that the little Manning brother has brought a lot of these struggles upon himself, making late throws into traffic and making remarkably careless decisions under pressure. The Giants need Eli to snap out of his funk immediately in order to hang on to the NFC East title that looked to be theirs a month ago.
2. Are the Packers peaking at the right time again? Actually, based on the way they played in back-to-back games against Houston and St. Louis earlier this year, you could make a strong argument that they can play quite a bit better themselves than what they’ve shown over their past three games. Which, considering they went 3-0 in that stretch, is something of a terrifying thought. Take Aaron Rodgers, for example. Currently, he actually has a below average Net Yards per Attempt figure of 6.31 (league average is 6.35); if he finished the season at that rate, it would be the worst NY/A figure of his career. Now a large reason for that is the brutal slate of defenses the Packers have faced so far this year. And Rodgers’ TD-to-INT ratio of 27-6 is in line with the A-Rod we all know and fear, so ultimately his Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt figure ranks him seventh overall in the NFL. Still, there’s obvious room for improvement for the Packers’ passing game in the last six games of the season.
3. What’s the likelihood the loser of this game gets knocked out of the playoffs because of it? Not particularly high, if we’re being honest. The NFC East is almost certainly only going to send one team to the playoffs, so that would make any wild-card tiebreakers between these two teams a moot point. Make no mistake, however, this is a vitally important game for both teams in their respective divisional races. The Giants’ biggest concern may no longer be the wildly inconsistent Cowboys, but the suddenly high-flying Redskins who have a Monday night date with New York next week. A Giants’ loss to the Packers would leave the door open for the Redskins to tie the division lead in that game. The Packers, meanwhile, have fought back into a tie with the Bears for first place in the NFC North and still have two games left against the Vikings, who are only one game back of them. Whoever loses this game will still be in solid position to make the playoffs, but they will have also left the door open for divisional foes to overtake them.

Steve Stone’s Said in Stone Cold Lock of the Game: “Larry Andersen pitched for at least parts of 17 seasons, and he threw 98 percent sliders.”

Projected Final Score: Giants 28, Packers 27

Team To Bet On If Gambling Were Legal: Packers (+2.5)

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Before we get into the rest of our Week 12 preview, let’s post some quick recaps on yesterday’s Thanksgiving games…

Houston 34, Detroit 31 (OT)

Adjusted Yards per Play: 6.87 – Houston, 6.38 – Detroit

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Houston 38.28, Detroit 39.65

Quick Thought: Allow me to be the 400th person you’ve heard in the past 24 hours say that the no-replay-on-an-illegal-challenge rule is the dumbest piece of crap I’ve ever encountered in the past three days. Why is Walt Coleman ALWAYS at the center of these things? He’s surpassed Jerome Boger as my most disliked referee in the league. At least Jerome is just incompetent and doesn’t have any idea what he’s doing. There’s an aura of malevolence with Walt – you can’t often hear it through his thick Southern drawl, but it’s definitely there and it’s definitely undermining the integrity of the NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE (I’m hoping if I write that in caps enough, ESPN will make me one of their NFL analysts).

Washington 38, Dallas 31

Adjusted Yards per Play: 7.94 – Washington, 5.04 – Dallas

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Washington 35.16, Dallas 27.00

Quick Thought: DON’T DO ‘EM LIKE THAT, RGIII!!! That was so reminiscent of Randy Moss’s three-catch, three-touchdown Thanksgiving performance during his rookie season in 1998 in which even Pat Summerall was speaking in hyperbolic tones by the end of it. What made both Randy and RGIII’s performances so special was the added sense that this was just the tip of the iceberg for these guys; we could conceivably see those guys play at that level for 15 years. Now if RGIII ever fake-moons the Lambeau crowd while Joe Buck is in the booth, then the analogy will be complete.

New England 49, NY Jets 19

Adjusted Yards per Play: 7.84 – New England, 3.73 – NY Jets

AY/P Projected Point Totals: New England 37.52, NY Jets 17.85

Quick Thought: I haven’t laughed so hard at a single play this season as I did at Mark Sanchez’s HERP-A-DERP fumble into the backside of his own offensive lineman (with some nice push thrown in by Vince Wilfork, of course). There’s comedy, there’s high comedy, there’s transcendent comedy, and then there’s Mark Sanchez running into his own offensive lineman, falling on his backside and losing the ball for a fumble return touchdown. WHAT DOES HE HAVE TO DO GET PULLED AT THIS POINT? He’s begging to taken out back ‘Ol-Yeller-style, Rex!

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Below are SSLYAR’s Week 12 NFL Projections, ranked by the author’s subjective interest in watching each game. Home teams are italicized; projected winners against the spread are underlined. To see which games are being shown in your area, check out the506′s TV distribution maps. Our guest analyst this week is fifteen-year NBA veteran Rasheed Wallace.

1. New York Giants 28, Green Bay Packers 27 (in-depth preview above): “We don’t see ourselves as four All-Stars. We see ourselves as one unit. It’s like five fingers on a hand. You can do more damage together as a fist than spread out flat.”
2. Chicago Bears 14, Minnesota Vikings 12: “Keep us on the back-burner. We won’t lose our swagger at all, because when you put that food on the back-burner, it’s just simmering and it tastes better. When you got that food on the front burner, that’s the one you’re paying attention to the most, and that’s the one that might burn. We’re on that back-burner.”
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31, Atlanta Falcons 27: “Go for it, Darko!”
4. San Francisco 49ers 31, New Orleans Saints 24: “That’s our main food that feeds this team.”
5. Baltimore Ravens 20, San Diego Chargers 16: “I’m not going to start the game by cracking a cat in the skull if I don’t get elbowed first.”
6. Buffalo Bills 28, Indianapolis Colts 27: “I guess that was his wannabe retaliation. I started laughing and got a (technical foul) for that.”
7. Seattle Seahawks 17, Miami Dolphins 10: “That’s when guys get to trash-talk. And it’s pretty much stroll down Memory Lane. You know, when cats say, ‘Oh, back when I was playing, when we went to the tournament and this and that.’ It’s just a stroll down Memory Lane more than anything.”
8. Cleveland Browns 13, Pittsburgh Steelers 10: “I don’t care about that number 16. Y’all should know that coming from me. It ain’t going to change nothing about us and what we doing. Y’all should know that.”
9. St. Louis Rams 17, Arizona Cardinals 16: “I just pick them game-by-game, not that bracket thing. It’s more profitable that way.”
10. Tennessee Titans 23, Jacksonville Jaguars 21: “It wasn’t no statement. It was just another game. Statements aren’t to be made until playoff time.”
11. Cincinnati Bengals 30, Oakland Raiders 24: “Don’t tread on D.”
12. Carolina Panthers 24, Philadelphia Eagles 16: “I can’t speak for other teams, but for us, we’re definitely trying to voice our objection. I don’t have a problem with that dress code if a man is injured and has to be on the bench during games. But it’s kind of crazy to sit up there and try to tell us how to dress on the way to work. We’re not in that head office in New York. To me, that’s crazy.”
13. Denver Broncos 27, Kansas City Chiefs 14: “Ball don’t lie.”

2012 Record Thus Far: 103-59-1 (11-3 last week)

2012 Record against the Spread Thus Far: 79-84 (8-6 last week)