Scattered stats and thoughts regarding Week 12 of the 2012 NFL Season…
NY Giants 38, Green Bay 10
Adjusted Yards per Play: 7.90 – NY Giants, 4.17 – Green Bay
AY/P Projected Point Totals: NY Giants 34.99, Green Bay 17.28
Quick Thoughts:
1. The “issue” with the Packers’ passing game this season – and I put “issue” in quotation marks because even with their relative struggles, they’ve still been one of the five or ten best passing teams in the league – is that they have two mediocre-at-best tackles. This was true even when Bryan Bulaga was healthy, but the problem is worse now that he’s out for the season with a hip injury and T.J. Lang has had to slide over from guard to right tackle. If neither of your team’s tackles can handle pass rushers one-on-one, then you’re forced to spend more time than you’d like trying to slow the opposition’s pass rush down. Often, this means running the football. And since none of the Packers’ running backs this season have averaged more than 3.5 yards per carry, running the football tends to just put Green Bay back in those predictable passing situations, where the Jason Pierre-Pauls and Osi Umenyioras of the world can pin their ears back and pretend they’re Mel Gibson in Braveheart (only less anti-Semitic) leading the Scots against the cruel tyranny of King Edward I. Truly ’tis a vicious cycle.
2. That’s the main reason for the Packers’ loss last night if you’re looking for analysis relevant to the actual game. If you’re looking for a more spurious scapegoat, look no further than the terrible mustaches sported by
Aaron Rodgers and
Mike McCarthy. This Movember nonsense has gotten a little too big for its britches, if you were to ask me. Take it from someone who can grow a pretty luxurious Amish beard but only ten long, stringy hairs for a mustache: unless you can grow that sucker full and bushy and devote the proper amount of time and care into grooming that nose neighbor, YOU SHOULD NEVER, EVER ATTEMPT A MUSTACHE UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES. Rodgers and McCarthy were just reaping the consequences of their actions. The only problem with this theory is that
Eli was growing out some equally wretched facial hair of his own last night and things turned out pretty well for him. Of course, as Lucas pointed out to me last night, “It makes sense. Whatever conventional wisdom says about the Giants, the opposite is true.” That it is, my friend. That it is.
3. Finally, Reason #1,137 Why Al Michaels Is Awesome: no one loves sneaking around the NFL’s no-talking-about-gambling-on-air policy more than Alan Richard. When the Giants lined up to go for it on 4th-and-Goal up 38-10 (in a game where the over/under was 50), Al noted before the play, “It’s not over yet,” sending Cris Collinsworth into a giggling fit. Then when the Giants failed on the fourth-down play, in the deadest-of-pan deliveries, Al sent the game off to a commercial with the words, “Underwhelming, to say the least.” Inarguably, this was the greatest moment of the NFL season thus far. I can only assume Al was high-fiving Cris during the commercial break with a satisfied smirk on his face while telling Cris about the time he indirectly mentioned the point spread during Super Bowl XXIX. And Cris probably just sat back and said, “Heheheheh, pass the corn chips, Al.” Best broadcasting duo in sports, folks.
Chicago 28, Minnesota 10
Adjusted Yards per Play: 3.68 – Chicago, 2.05 – Minnesota
AY/P Projected Point Totals: Chicago 18.66, Minnesota 9.52
Quick Thought: On the one hand, the Bears broke their two-game losing streak, which is good. On the other hand, half the team died during the game, which is bad. On the third hand, Jay Cutler is still alive, so it’s all good! Yesterday was one of those Cutler games where his final stat line is pretty mediocre on its own but semi-miraculous when you take into account how many throws into six-inch windows and triple coverage he had to make. The Bears would have scored six points yesterday if Jason Campbell started. Remind me of this high point when Cutler’s throwing five interceptions to the Packers in a few weeks.
Atlanta 24, Tampa Bay 23
Adjusted Yards per Play: 6.83 – Atlanta, 6.78 – Tampa Bay
AY/P Projected Point Totals: Atlanta 27.81, Tampa Bay 26.15
Quick Thought: What do you know?! Atlanta pulls out another close one! THIS HAS NEVER HAPPENED BEFORE IN THE HISTORY OF MANKIND. Can’t even really get mad about it anymore – it’s like that weird zit on your back that keeps coming back even after you actually starting cleaning that area with soap and harassing it with J.J. Redick jokes. Or is that just a personal problem? Either way, congratulations on becoming the zit that inhabits the NFL’s back, Atlanta!
San Francisco 31, New Orleans 21
Adjusted Yards per Play: 6.61 – San Francisco, 3.88 – New Orleans
AY/P Projected Point Totals: San Francisco 26.44, New Orleans 18.57
Quick Thought: The biggest difference between Colin Kaepernick and Alex Smith thus far? In his two starts, Kaepernick has been sacked twice in 50 dropbacks for a sack rate of 4.0%. Smith has been sacked 24 times in 241 dropbacks for a sack rate of 10.0%. The 49ers offensive line is nothing short of phenomenal in run blocking, but honestly they look pretty bad against a pass rush. Kaepernick repeatedly dodged and scrambled his way out of pressure against a below-average Saints front four; Smith likely would have been sacked at least three or four times. I think that’s the biggest reason Kaepernick’s taken over the job; Smith can make and has made 95% of the throws Kaepernick’s completed over the past two games. Kaepernick just gives himself more chances for completions.
Baltimore 16, San Diego 13 (OT)
Adjusted Yards per Play: 5.09 – Baltimore, 4.62 – San Diego
AY/P Projected Point Totals: Baltimore 33.09, San Diego 21.45
Quick Thought: RAY RICE!!! First of all, what on earth was Flacco thinking throwing a three-yard dumpoff on 4th-and-29? More importantly, what was going through Ray’s head at that point? “Oh, don’t you throw that ball to me, you know what crap I’m gonna have to pull to get that first down? Aw crap, Joe, you ARE going to stick me with this, aren’t you? Well, you’re not going to make me the scapegoat, you big Frankenstein. I’m gonna get this first down and then the pressure’ll be back on you, Flaccid Face.” You heard it here first: Ray Rice converted that 4th-and-29 out of pure spite.
Indianapolis 20, Buffalo 13
Adjusted Yards per Play: 4.10 – Indianapolis, 4.81 – Buffalo
AY/P Projected Point Totals: Indianapolis 20.50, Buffalo 19.93
Quick Thought: Should’ve known better than to pick against the Colts at home, where there’s a 75% chance Chuck Pagano will appear in person and render any chance the opposing team has moot. Or was the Colts’ victory perhaps due to the two cheerleaders who shaved their heads in between the third and fourth quarters? Strange but true: no NFL team has ever lost when some of their cheerleaders have had their heads shaved during the game. CAN’T ARGUE WITH FACTS.
Miami 24, Seattle 21
Adjusted Yards per Play: 8.18 – Miami, 6.29 – Seattle
AY/P Projected Point Totals: Miami 32.14, Seattle 25.16
Quick Thought: Just as we all expected: a week after averaging 3.3 yards per play against the terrible Bills defense, the Dolphins went up against one of the top five defenses in the league…and averaged 7.9 yards per play. And all this even with the sprinklers going off in the third quarter, which you would assume could only help the Seahawks – they of all teams should be more accustomed to playing in wet conditions, right? In any event, I nominate that the Chiefs-Browns game in Week 14 be played with the sprinklers running non-stop; that way, there would at least be a chance I would watch some of that crap they’re marketing as football.
Cleveland 20, Pittsburgh 14
Adjusted Yards per Play: 3.64 – Cleveland, -2.24 – Pittsburgh
AY/P Projected Point Totals: Cleveland 16.64, Pittsburgh -8.80
Quick Thought: Ladies and gentlemen, the new Worst Offensive Performance of the Year! You can breathe easier, Mark Sanchez: your team’s putrid performance against the 49ers in Week 4 has just been surpassed in ineptitude. The Steelers didn’t even have notably bad fumble luck; when you put the ball on the ground eight times, you really shouldn’t be blaming luck for all your turnovers, anyway. Quite literally, if they had just punted the ball on every play, they would have been better off by eight or nine points. And Cleveland STILL only won by six! The things you have to do to let the Browns beat you…
St. Louis 31, Arizona 17
Adjusted Yards per Play: 6.70 – St. Louis, 3.05 – Arizona
AY/P Projected Point Totals: St. Louis 25.84, Arizona 16.78
Quick Thought: Is it a bad thing for your long-term prospects when you throw four interceptions (two of them pick-sixes) and no touchdowns and I still think, “Huh, that was better than I expected?” Congratulations on setting a ridiculously low bar, Ryan Lindley!
Jacksonville 24, Tennessee 19
Adjusted Yards per Play: 5.60 – Jacksonville, 4.14 – Tennessee
AY/P Projected Point Totals: Jacksonville 24.00, Tennessee 20.70
Quick Thought: I’m just going to point out that during his two full years starting in Miami, Chad Henne ranked 17th both years in Football Outsiders’ DYAR rankings. Is he the bright, shining beacon of hope that your franchise can ride to a playoff berth year after year? Of course not. On the other hand, HE’S NOT BLAINE GABBERT. So there’s that.
Cincinnati 34, Oakland 10
Adjusted Yards per Play: 7.50 – Cincinnati, 2.34 – Oakland
AY/P Projected Point Totals: Cincinnati 35.36, Oakland 10.20
Quick Thought: In my mind, Cincinnati is now the favorite for the final wild-card slot in the AFC. They’ll have to beat Pittsburgh in Week 16 to get there in all likelihood, but given the way Pittsburgh’s played offensively this year even with Roethlisberger that seems eminently doable. Only quibble I have with them so far: GET MOHAMED SANU MORE PASS ATTEMPTS. Did you know that he is currently averaging 73 Yards per Attempt? If he kept that up over a full season of, let’s say, 500 pass attempts, he would throw for 36,500 yards. WHY AREN’T YOU MORE EAGER TO EXPLORE THIS, MARVIN LEWIS?
Denver 17, Kansas City 9
Adjusted Yards per Play: 5.76 – Denver, 3.71 – Kansas City
AY/P Projected Point Totals: Denver 25.92, Kansas City 15.64
Quick Thought: All of you angry over Denver’s shocking non-cover against the Chiefs yesterday should feel free to direct your anger to Matt Prater. Missing a 47-yard field goal in the first quarter? Hey, no one’s perfect, man! But doinking a 33-yarder off the left upright in the third quarter? THERE’S BLOOD ON YOUR HANDS, MATTHEW.