Week 1 Quick Thoughts

Scattered stats and thoughts regarding Week 1 of the 2012 NFL season..

Denver 31, Pittsburgh 19
Adjusted Yards per Play: 6.26 – Denver, 3.93 – Pittsburgh
AY/P Projected Point Totals: Denver 24.59, Pittsburgh 19.93
Quick Thoughts:
1. In the first quarter, both teams spent their time offensively focusing on the offseason initiatives their front offices had set in front of them. The Steelers fired Bruce Arians and brought in Todd Haley to coach their offense so they could get back to the smashmouth, get-off-the-bus-running style Pittsburgh has become known for. The Broncos were going to integrate Peyton Manning into their offense and use the no-huddle just as a change-up. And for that first period, the two sides stuck to their script pretty well. The only issue? Neither team scored. Starting in the second period, however, the Broncos let Manning run the no-huddle offense he had perfected in Indianapolis and the Steelers decided that, considering their top-ten quarterback and top-five receiving core, maybe passing wasn’t such a bad idea after all. The game opened up considerably after that and was very tight up until the moment Tracy Porter intercepted a Ben Roethlisberger pass for a touchdown with two minutes left to essentially put the game away.
2. The issue for the Steelers? Putting themselves in big third-down holes all game long. Roethlisberger was brilliant in picking up many of those third downs in the first three quarters, but the Steelers’ persistent struggle to pick up meaningful yardage on first and second down eventually came back to kill them. While Jonathan Dwyer was impressive in his part-time duty running the ball, the Steelers will likely have to rethink their renewed commitment to the run because of the ever-increasing injuries to their offensive line, the possibility that their defense may not be truly elite anymore (and, therefore, not as likely to win the 13-10 style games a running-based attack usually culminates in) and, you know, the fact that they have A GREAT FREAKING PASSING GAME. Other than that? By all means, keep running the ball, Pittsburgh.

3. And on the other side, I can’t tell you how much it warmed the cockles of my heart to see Peyton Manning running his offense again in the last three quarters of the game. The names are different and the jerseys are MUCH different, but what you saw from the second quarter on last night was essentially the exact same thing Manning was running in Indianapolis for the last several years of his stay there. The only difference may be that Demaryius Thomas is the most athletically gifted receiver Manning has ever played with and that obviously showed up on the wide receiver screen that Thomas took 71 yards for a touchdown in the third quarter. Other than that, though, it was Colts West out there – or, perhaps more accurately, Manning West. It’s fair to question whether the likes of Brandon Stokley will be able to keep producing the way they did last night, but one thing certainly became clear over the course of the game: Peyton Manning’s mind remains as sharp as ever.

San Francisco 30, Green Bay 22.
Adjusted Yards per Play: 7.05 – San Francisco, 5.23 – Green Bay
AY/P Projected Point Totals: San Francisco 31.22, Green Bay 22.79

Quick Thought: Everyone looking to slow down Green Bay’s offense: the blueprint has officially been provided. The 49ers copied the Giants’ defensive game plan from the NFC Divisional Round last year, focusing most of their efforts on preventing the likes of Jordy Nelson, Greg Jennings, and James Jones from beating them deep and instead forcing Aaron Rodgers to throw the ball underneath the drop-prone Jermichael Finley and fourth receiver Randall Cobb. Cobb played very well, both on offense and special teams, but Finley came up with only 47 receiving yards on 11 targets. The Packers’ offense ultimately performed at an above-average clip in the Adjusted Yards per Play metric, but above-average may not be good enough considering the myriad problems their defense still seems to have. Massive credit has to go to Jim Harbaugh and the 49ers, however: they joined the Cowboys as owners of the most impressive victories of Week 1.

NY Jets 48, Buffalo 28
Adjusted Yards per Play: 6.65 – NY Jets, 4.91 – Buffalo.
AY/P Projected Point Totals: NY Jets 29.93, Buffalo 20.34

Quick Thought: Raise your hand if you had the Jets scoring 48 this week and Tebow recovering an onside kick. Most worrisome aspect for the Bills is that their pass rush not only generated zero sacks, they didn’t even get a hit on Mark Sanchez. Maybe Wayne Hunter was the only problem? The Jets were the beneficiaries of both a punt return touchdown and a pick-six, in addition to recovering all three of the game’s fumbles. But there’s not a whole lot of nitpicking to be done when you get out to a 41-7 lead.

Washington 40, New Orleans 32
Adjusted Yards per Play: 7.66 – Washington, 4.34 – New Orleans
AY/P Projected Point Totals: Washington 38.85, New Orleans 19.84

Quick Thought: Watching RGIII’s stat line progress throughout the day was a thing of beauty. Watching Drew Brees’ stat line progress throughout the day was dumbfounding. He’s completing less than 50 percent of his passes?! Did they replace all of his receivers with cardboard cutouts of Roy Williams? Fumble luck note: the Redskins recovered all three of their fumbles and the Saints’ lone fumble went out the back of the endzone for a touchback. With that said, though, very impressive victory for the Redskins and an alarming performance by the Saints’ defense (note to Steve Spagnuolo: DO NOT PUT ROMAN HARPER IN COVERAGE).

Chicago 41, Indianapolis 21
Adjusted Yards per Play: 6.90 – Chicago, 3.35 – Indianapolis
AY/P Projected Point Totals: Chicago 34.50, Indianapolis 15.08

Quick Thought: Meanwhile, the other highly touted rookie quarterback from last year’s draft had his share of struggles on Sunday (in fairness, he was playing a slightly better defense). Andrew Luck’s accuracy was noticeably off on several throws (Reggie Wayne brilliantly saved quite a few of those off-target passes) and his offensive line looks like it’s going to be a concern all year. On the other side, Jay Cutler’s streakiness went to a whole new level; he started 1-of-10 for 13 yards and one of the worst pick-sixes you will ever see, then finished 20-of-25 for 320 yards and two touchdowns.

Tampa Bay 16, Carolina 10
Adjusted Yards per Play: 4.48 – Tampa Bay, 4.71 – Carolina
AY/P Projected Point Totals: Tampa Bay 19.84, Carolina 16.49

Quick Thought: Even though Carolina was a hair more efficient on a per play basis, the Buccaneers’ fifteen-minute edge in time of possession coupled with the Panthers’ two turnovers and penalty problems were enough to lead to a Tampa Bay victory. Frankly, this is a game the Panthers probably should have won and a bad way to start the year in an NFC South that figures to be tight at the end.

Atlanta 40, Kansas City 24
Adjusted Yards per Play: 8.29 – Atlanta, 4.54 – Kansas City
AY/P Projected Point Totals: Atlanta 32.57, Kansas City 22.38

Quick Thought: Hat tip to Matt Ryan for a beautifully efficient day both through the air and on the ground (3 carries for 25 yards and a touchdown). If this is the way the Chiefs are going to play defensively this year, though, you can probably write down that 3-13 record in black ink right now.

New England 34, Tennessee 13
Adjusted Yards per Play: 6.72 – New England, 3.43 – Tennessee
AY/P Projected Point Totals: New England 32.16, Tennessee 14.95

Quick Thought: Eleven carries for four yards – the resurgent Chris Johnson, everybody! Jake Locker was a surprisingly accurate 23-of-32, though we’ll have to see if this was merely a byproduct of playing a very bad Pats defense. On the other side, Tom Brady had to put more effort into his acting for the Dodge Dart commercial than the actual game yesterday.

Detroit 27, St. Louis 23
Adjusted Yards per Play: 5.28 – Detroit, 4.93 – St. Louis
AY/P Projected Point Totals: Detroit 25.27, St. Louis 19.37

Quick Thought: If moral victories actually exist in the NFL, yesterday’s loss to the Lions definitely served as one for the Rams. Sam Bradford looked pretty good and, given the way the running game struggled against a Lions’ run defense that has been horrendous in years past, St. Louis should think of giving him more responsibility as the year progresses. The Lions were able to become one of the rare teams that wins despite being minus three in turnover differential.

Arizona 20, Seattle 16
Adjusted Yards per Play: 3.47 – Arizona, 2.56 – Seattle
AY/P Projected Point Totals: Arizona 14.13, Seattle 12.80

Quick Thought: Matt Flynn, you may want to get ready. Just in case. Also, the award for Biggest Officiating Snafu by the Replacement Officials goes to Bob Hermansen and his crew for giving Seattle a fourth timeout in the second half. If this had happened in a game that more than 1% of America actually cared about, you’d better believe there would’ve been rioting in the streets!

Philadelphia 17, Cleveland 16
Adjusted Yards per Play: 3.02 – Philadelphia, 0.51 – Cleveland
AY/P Projected Point Totals: Philadelphia 18.98, Cleveland 2.15

Quick Thought: If ever there was a game in which neither team deserved to win…well, this one would come pretty close. Michael Vick turned out the Rex Grossman Special with four interceptions and two fumbles – and was easily the best quarterback on the field. Sadly for Browns fans, Brandon Weeden’s turtling under the American flag before the game would turn out to be by far his strongest play of the game. Never let the flag touch the ground, Brandon! Very patriotic act.

Houston 30, Miami 10
Adjusted Yards per Play: 5.84 – Houston, 1.55 – Miami
AY/P Projected Point Totals: Houston 28.37, Miami 6.42

Quick Thought: Joe Philbin: it’s not too late to switch back to Matt Moore at quarterback. Your defense did a great job against the Texans’ run game and the vast majority of your schedule is filled with teams nowhere as good as Houston. If your offense is able to give you ANYTHING, you’ve got a good shot at a competitive season. Or, if you’d rather, you can keep Ryan Tannehill at quarterback and continue to stress positives such as “Hey, he only threw three interceptions today! Great job!” and “At least he’s not Brandon Weeden.”

Minnesota 26, Jacksonville 23 (OT)
Adjusted Yards per Play: 6.53 – Minnesota, 4.60 – Jacksonville
AY/P Projected Point Totals: Minnesota 27.05, Jacksonville 24.64
Quick Thought: Who would have thought the worst game on paper of the day would turn out to be the best finish? Better yet for fans of both teams: Blaine Gabbert and especially Christian Ponder actually looked like NFL quarterbacks yesterday. I can only assume they’re looking forward to my season-ending Quarterback Ranking column, in which I rate them somewhere in the low twenties.