Tag Archives: NFL Week 5

Week 5 Power Rankings: Tell Me About Spider 7 Y Banana

Welcome to the Week 5 edition of Someone Still Loves You Alberto Riveron’s weekly NFL power rankings. To help us make sense of what happened during this last batch of NFL action, we’ve asked Super Bowl-winning coach and current ESPN commentator Jon Gruden to share his thoughts with us below. Please enjoy.

My golly, folks, would you look at that? We’re already FIVE WEEKS OF THE WAY into the season. I can’t believe it. It seems like just yesterday I was texting Andrew Luck after my quarterback camp session with him, trying to get him to meet up with me at this OUTSTANDING TIKI BAR we’ve got here in Tampa, Florida for Mai Thais and karaoke. And now he’s leading the Colts past the VAUNTED GREEN BAY PACKERS DEFENSE and winning games for his beloved coach, Chuck Pagano. *chuckles, raises right hand slightly* I tell ya, you take your eye off the action here in the National Football League FOR ONE SECOND and you miss THOUSANDS OF POSSIBLE NEW PLAY DESIGNS for six-yard slants. That’s why I’ve outfitted the Monday Night Football bus with SIXTEEN DIFFERENT WIDE-SCREEN TELEVISIONS so that I’ll never possibly miss any action. We had to sacrifice the bus john in order to get all the TV’s to fit…*squints, gets faraway look in his eye*…but who said sacrifice was ever an easy thing?

Of course, the biggest story of this NFL season so far has been the replacement officials and the, shall we say, CONTROVERSIAL RULINGS they came up with during their time presiding over the action. And I’m sure you’re all aware that I was in the broadcast booth for the MOST CONTROVERSIAL CALL OF THEM ALL, that Hail Mary play they had there at the end of that Packers-Seahawks game there. Now I’m aware that this is a tough job and these guys out there – they’re just your everyday plumbers or kindergarten teachers or sex shop cashiers who were just trying the best they could out there. I understand that. But it took all my inner strength to keep me from leaping out of that broadcast booth in Seattle, finding those doddering replacements on the field and ripping their INTESTINES OUT OF THEIR TORSOS and tying them all together so I could teach them the TRUE MEANING OF DUAL POSSESSION. What a disgrace. Let me tell you, as someone who’s been victimized by HORRENDOUS END-GAME OFFICIATING – *cough*WALT COLEMAN*cough*WALT COLEMAN*cough* – I felt on a deep level for Mike McCarthy. If I may be frank, my confidence in the NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE was deeply shaken. How could a league that gave us such beautiful principles as the three-step drop and delayed draw be also capable of SUCH SINISTER CHICANERY? I walked the empty streets of Seattle late at night after that game, deeply troubled by what I’d seen earlier; I wasn’t sure I could ever love the league in the same way I once did…

But fast forward to the next week. BEARS. COWBOYS. AT JERRY WORLD DOWN THERE IN TEXAS. The real officials are back. We’re seeing an entertaining football game with MY GUY Jay Cutler standing in there against a FEARSOME COWBOYS FRONT and MY OTHER GUY Tony Romo…well, he was there, too. And at one point in the third quarter, the Bears line up in one of my favorite formations from back when I was still coaching. I start to get a touch excited inside. I think to myself, Could it be? Could this be what I think it is? Then the play unfolds. THAT LOVABLE GUNSLINGER JAY tosses it down the field and Kellen Davis, the OUTSTANDING fifth-year tight end for the Chicago Bears, makes a great diving catch outside the hashmarks. PURE POETRY IN MOTION. It was a play called SPIDER 7 Y BANANA and it was a little something-something I would call up whenever I needed MY GUY Brad Johnson to hook up with MY OTHER GUY Joe Jurevicius down in Tampa. I’ll tell ya, it brought tears to my eyes and excitement to my crotch. And just like that…*smirks, glances over at imaginary Mike Tirico*…I was back on the NFL bandwagon.

So it’s an exciting time for myself and everyone who’s ever been involved with the GRUDEN PYRAMID OF SUCCESS. You take a look at the most successful teams in the league this season and I’ll show you some playcallers who have been DIVINELY INSPIRED by an old ballcoach you may remember seeing in Oakland and Tampa. *chuckles, nudges imaginary Tirico* Look at the ATLANTA FALCONS. Matt Ryan is a leading MVP candidate so far and he’s doing it by living off the six-yard slant. WHO DO YOU THINK TAUGHT HIM THAT? Look at the Minnesota Vikings. Their OUTSTANDING offensive coordinator BILL MUSGRAVE is expertly managing their offense with BONA FIDE WEST COAST PRINCIPLES. Is it any coincidence they’re 4-1? And the Cleveland Browns! They’ve got PAT SHURMUR and BRAD CHILDRESS, two of the FINEST WEST COAST MINDS out there, leading young Brandon Weeden to success. And they’re…well, they’re 0-5 right now. But don’t be sleeping on them, NFL teams, because if there was ever a candidate to pull off an eleven-game winning streak…*raises right eyebrow and right hand*…this would be the one. So enjoy this upcoming stretch of the season, my fellow NFL addicts, and savor every second you can. I know I am! In fact, I’m going to try to start waking up a little earlier every day to squeeze more film-viewing in; I’ve been sleeping in ’til 3:30 A.M. lately and only had time to go over the Ravens-Chiefs game twice yesterday. UNACCEPTABLE…

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A quick thought on Monday Night’s game…

Houston 23, NY Jets 17
Adjusted Yards per Play: 5.92 – Houston, 3.72 – NY Jets
AY/P Projected Point Totals: Houston 26.64, NY Jets 15.41

Quick Thought: Let’s give the Jets some credit for doing their best to keep this close until the end. Joe McKnight gave them a kick return touchdown, they tried a surprise onside kick – they even trotted out Antonio Cromartie at wide receiver and let him fly down the field on a go route once. And it would have worked, too, if Sanchez didn’t throw the ball three yards out of bounds. Alas, that last sentence probably sums up the Jets’ last four years a little too well. Bad news for Houston: it looks like Brian Cushing tore his ACL, so that would be a major loss going forward. Hopefully it just “looks” like it.

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Here’s SSLYAR’s Week 5 rankings by Adjusted Yards per Play Differential, which is a descriptive metric that is designed to give an accurate representation of how each team has played thus far. San Francisco’s demolition of Buffalo sends them to a huge lead in this week’s rankings; the two remaing undefeated teams, Houston and Atlanta, are ranked #2 and #5, respectively. As you might expect, Buffalo goes tumbling down to #28; Philadelphia is another big loser of the week, falling to #21.

Adjusted Yards per Play Differential (league average: 0.00)

  1. San Francisco: 3.42 (last week: 3, high–>low: 1–>11)
  2. Houston: 2.58 (last week: 1, high–>low: 1–>2)
  3. Chicago: 2.44 (last week: 6, high–>low: 3–>14)
  4. Baltimore: 1.96 (last week: 4, high–>low: 1–>4)
  5. Atlanta: 1.81 (last week: 2, high–>low: 1–>5)
  6. New England: 1.49 (last week: 5, high–>low: 3–>8)
  7. Minnesota: 1.19 (last week: 8, high–>low: 7–>12)
  8. NY Giants: 0.98 (last week: 7, high–>low: 4–>26)
  9. Washington: 0.72 (last week: 9, high–>low: 5–>13)
  10. Pittsburgh: 0.41 (last week: 17, high–>low: 10–>24)
  11. Seattle: 0.33 (last week: 13, high–>low: 11–>19)
  12. San Diego: 0.29 (last week: 10, high–>low: 7–>20)
  13. Denver: 0.09 (last week: 12, high–>low: 9–>19)
  14. Green Bay: -0.01 (last week: 18, high–>low: 11–>22)
  15. Arizona: –0.02 (last week: 11, high–>low: 10–>19)
  16. Detroit: -0.04 (last week: 15, high–>low: 15–>22)
  17. Miami: -0.08 (last week: 19, high–>low: 19–>31)
  18. St. Louis: -0.18 (last week: 24, high–>low: 18–>28)
  19. Cincinnati: -0.26 (last week: 16, high–>low: 16–>32)
  20. Dallas: -0.29 (last week: 20, high–>low: 7–>20)
  21. Philadelphia: –0.30 (last week: 14, high–>low: 8–>21)
  22. New Orleans: -0.38 (last week: 23, high–>low: 22–>29)
  23. Carolina: -0.62 (last week: 22, high–>low: 9–>23)
  24. Cleveland: -1.21 (last week: 25, high–>low: 20–>25)
  25. Tampa Bay: -1.22 (last week: 26, high–>low: 17–>29)
  26. Oakland: -1.23 (last week: 27, high–>low: 20–>27)
  27. Indianapolis: -1.46 (last week: 29, high–>low: 27–>30)
  28. Buffalo: -1.85 (last week: 21, high–>low: 5–>28)
  29. NY Jets: -1.87 (last week: 30, high–>low: 12–>30)
  30. Tennessee: -2.28 (last week: 31, high–>low: 27–>31)
  31. Jacksonville: -2.50 (last week: 28, high–>low: 23–>31)
  32. Kansas City: -2.57 (last week: 32, high–>low: 30–>32)

Offensive Adjusted Yards per Play (league average: 4.98)

  1. San Francisco: 6.67 (last week: 9, high–>low: 1–>12)
  2. Washington: 6.51 (last week: 1, high–>low: 1–>4)
  3. NY Giants: 6.49 (last week: 5, high–>low: 3–>17)
  4. Baltimore: 6.11 (last week: 2, high–>low: 1–>6)
  5. New England: 6.09 (last week: 4, high–>low: 4–>12)
  6. Atlanta: 6.08 (last week: 3, high–>low: 2–>6)
  7. Houston: 5.97 (last week: 6, high–>low: 6–>11)
  8. New Orleans: 5.84 (last week: 8, high–>low: 8–>22)
  9. Pittsburgh: 5.34 (last week: 11, high–>low: 9–>24)
  10. Detroit: 5.25 (last week: 14, high–>low: 9–>18)
  11. Oakland: 5.23 (last week: 15, high–>low: 10–>23)
  12. Green Bay: 5.19 (last week: 16, high–>low: 12–>24)
  13. Denver: 5.18 (last week: 13, high–>low: 10–>23)
  14. Cincinnati: 5.16 (last week: 7, high–>low: 7–>25)
  15. Minnesota: 5.06 (last week: 17, high–>low: 9–>17)
  16. Chicago: 5.00 (last week: 23, high–>low: 6–>30)
  17. San Diego: 4.97 (last week: 18, high–>low: 9–>22)
  18. Buffalo: 4.85 (last week: 12, high–>low: 5–>18)
  19. Carolina: 4.84 (last week: 10, high–>low: 4–>19)
  20. Indianapolis: 4.79 (last week: 20, high–>low: 20–>28)
  21. Tampa Bay: 4.47 (last week: 22, high–>low: 19–>29)
  22. Dallas: 4.38 (last week: 24, high–>low: 3–>25)
  23. Miami: 4.36 (last week: 19, high–>low: 19–>31)
  24. St. Louis: 4.14 (last week: 28, high–>low: 13–>28)
  25. Tennessee: 4.09 (last week: 21, high–>low: 18–>27)
  26. Cleveland: 4.09 (last week: 31, high–>low: 26–>32)
  27. Philadelphia: 4.02 (last week: 26, high–>low: 26–>32)
  28. Seattle: 3.93 (last week: 27, high–>low: 25–>30)
  29. Arizona: 3.71 (last week: 29, high–>low: 26–>32)
  30. NY Jets: 3.63 (last week: 32, high–>low: 8–>32)
  31. Jacksonville: 3.57 (last week: 25, high–>low: 16–>31)
  32. Kansas City: 3.52 (last week: 30, high–>low: 20–>32)

Defensive Adjusted Yards per Play (league average: 4.98)

  1. Chicago: 2.57 (last week: 1, high–>low: 1–>5)
  2. San Francisco: 3.25 (last week: 3, high–>low: 2–>20)
  3. Houston: 3.39 (last week: 2, high–>low: 1–>2)
  4. Seattle: 3.60 (last week: 5, high–>low: 4–>7)
  5. Arizona: 3.73 (last week: 4, high–>low: 3–>5)
  6. Minnesota: 3.87 (last week: 8, high–>low: 6–>14)
  7. Baltimore: 4.15 (last week: 11, high–>low: 7–>13)
  8. Atlanta: 4.27 (last week: 7, high–>low: 3–>13)
  9. Philadelphia: 4.32 (last week: 6, high–>low: 1–>9)
  10. St. Louis: 4.32 (last week: 13, high–>low: 10–>22)
  11. Miami: 4.44 (last week: 14, high–>low: 11–>23)
  12. New England: 4.59 (last week: 10, high–>low: 3–>14)
  13. Dallas: 4.67 (last week: 12, high–>low: 7–>17)
  14. San Diego: 4.68 (last week: 9, high–>low: 9–>17)
  15. Pittsburgh: 4.93 (last week: 20, high–>low: 15–>23)
  16. Denver: 5.09 (last week: 16, high–>low: 9–>20)
  17. Green Bay: 5.20 (last week: 17, high–>low: 7–>28)
  18. Detroit: 5.29 (last week: 18, high–>low: 18–>23)
  19. Cleveland: 5.30 (last week: 15, high–>low: 4–>19)
  20. Cincinnati: 5.42 (last week: 25, high–>low: 21–>32)
  21. Carolina: 5.46 (last week: 26, high–>low: 12–>26)
  22. NY Jets: 5.50 (last week: 19, high–>low: 16–>21)
  23. NY Giants: 5.50 (last week: 21, high–>low: 18–>30)
  24. Tampa Bay: 5.68 (last week: 22, high–>low: 15–>26)
  25. Washington: 5.79 (last week: 27, high–>low: 11–>27)
  26. Jacksonville: 6.06 (last week: 24, high–>low: 24–>26)
  27. Kansas City: 6.09 (last week: 32, Week 1: 27–>32)
  28. New Orleans: 6.22 (last week: 29, Week 1: 28–>30)
  29. Indianapolis: 6.26 (last week: 28, high–>low: 24–>29)
  30. Tennessee: 6.37 (last week: 30, Week 1: 26–>30)
  31. Oakland: 6.46 (last week: 31, Week 1: 19–>31)
  32. Buffalo: 6.70 (last week: 23, high–>low: 12–>32)

SSLYAR also ranks teams according to Predictive Yards per Play Differential, a metric which doesn’t give as large a penalty or bonus to turnovers or touchdowns, will also take into account strength of schedule and will (theoretically) better able to predict future performance. This metric uses probabilities drawn from research Brian Burke did back in 2008 in trying to determine which stats best correlated with future play. For example, because offensive performance is much more consistent from week-to-week than defensive performance, offensive play is more highly prioritized in these rankings.

San Francisco is the clear top team in this metric as well; Chicago rises up to the second spot due to their dominant second half in Jacksonville. Strength of schedule is also starting to make an impact on these rankings; for example, all four NFC North teams rank in the top ten, with 1-3 Detroit rising to #5 during their bye week. The reason? Every NFC North team except Chicago played San Francisco and hung around with the 49ers (or beat them outright, in Minnesota’s case). Strength of schedule also affects Atlanta and Cincinnati’s rankings; in their cases, their weak slate of opponents so far causes them to tumble from their top ten positions last week. One other interesting note: the Giants have this week’s top-ranked offense and last-ranked defense.

Predictive Yards per Play Differential (league average: 0.998896)

  1. San Francisco: 2.131378 (last week: 3)
  2. Chicago: 1.595534 (last week: 12)
  3. Baltimore: 1.545253 (last week: 1)
  4. Houston: 1.518795 (last week: 2)
  5. Detroit: 1.500305 (last week: 7)
  6. Denver: 1.468355 (last week: 6)
  7. Seattle: 1.34568 (last week: 16)
  8. Dallas: 1.316108 (last week: 17)
  9. Minnesota: 1.291774 (last week: 13)
  10. Green Bay: 1.229254 (last week: 20)
  11. NY Giants: 1.21715 (last week: 9)
  12. Atlanta: 1.211542 (last week: 4)
  13. New England: 1.184261 (last week: 5)
  14. Washington: 1.124449 (last week: 18)
  15. Miami: 1.045623 (last week: 11)
  16. Philadelphia: 1.002916 (last week: 10)
  17. Indianapolis: 0.96451 (last week: 23)
  18. Carolina: 0.963812 (last week: 15)
  19. Cincinnati: 0.947564 (last week: 8)
  20. St. Louis: 0.908414 (last week: 28)
  21. New Orleans: 0.824954 (last week: 19)
  22. Pittsburgh: 0.725192 (last week: 24)
  23. Arizona: 0.723157 (last week: 25)
  24. Tennessee: 0.653336 (last week: 21)
  25. Buffalo: 0.650827 (last week: 14)
  26. Oakland: 0.564288 (last week: 26)
  27. San Diego: 0.559367 (last week: 22)
  28. Cleveland: 0.346018 (last week: 29)
  29. Kansas City: 0.320571 (last week: 27)
  30. Tampa Bay: 0.294493 (last week: 30)
  31. NY Jets: 0.283248 (last week: 32)
  32. Jacksonville: 0.226804 (last week: 31)

Offensive Predictive Yards per Play (league average: 2.865359)

  1. NY Giants: 3.664539 (last week: 2)
  2. San Francisco: 3.475696 (last week: 13)
  3. Washington: 3.349809 (last week: 3)
  4. Baltimore: 3.33855 (last week: 1)
  5. Detroit: 3.332379 (last week: 11)
  6. New Orleans: 3.181016 (last week: 8)
  7. Atlanta: 3.178064 (last week: 4)
  8. Denver: 3.101918 (last week: 12)
  9. New England: 3.094035 (last week: 5)
  10. Chicago: 3.089321 (last week: 21)
  11. Indianapolis: 3.087675 (last week: 15)
  12. Houston: 3.056081 (last week: 10)
  13. Buffalo: 3.013454 (last week: 9)
  14. Cincinnati: 2.964881 (last week: 6)
  15. Green Bay: 2.931307 (last week: 22)
  16. Dallas: 2.864404 (last week: 20)
  17. Carolina: 2.848356 (last week: 7)
  18. Oakland: 2.820745 (last week: 18)
  19. Tennessee: 2.740968 (last week: 14)
  20. Seattle: 2.71802 (last week: 25)
  21. Minnesota: 2.708858 (last week: 23)
  22. Miami: 2.66911 (last week: 16)
  23. Pittsburgh: 2.630896 (last week: 17)
  24. Philadelphia: 2.557929 (last week: 19)
  25. St. Louis: 2.546583 (last week: 28)
  26. Tampa Bay: 2.423652 (last week: 26)
  27. Arizona: 2.357251 (last week: 32)
  28. San Diego: 2.356353 (last week: 27)
  29. Cleveland: 2.344717 (last week: 29)
  30. Kansas City: 2.333094 (last week: 24)
  31. NY Jets: 2.252124 (last week: 31)
  32. Jacksonville: 2.241425 (last week: 30)

Defensive Predictive Yards per Play (league average: 1.866464)

  1. San Francisco: 1.344318 (last week: 1)
  2. Seattle: 1.37234 (last week: 2)
  3. Minnesota: 1.417084 (last week: 4)
  4. Chicago: 1.493787 (last week: 5)
  5. Houston: 1.537285 (last week: 3)
  6. Dallas: 1.548296 (last week: 8)
  7. Philadelphia: 1.555013 (last week: 7)
  8. Miami: 1.623487 (last week: 9)
  9. Denver: 1.633563 (last week: 11)
  10. Arizona: 1.634094 (last week: 6)
  11. St. Louis: 1.638169 (last week: 18)
  12. Green Bay: 1.702053 (last week: 17)
  13. Baltimore: 1.793297 (last week: 12)
  14. San Diego: 1.796986 (last week: 10)
  15. Detroit: 1.832074 (last week: 13)
  16. Carolina: 1.884544 (last week: 25)
  17. Pittsburgh: 1.905704 (last week: 20)
  18. New England: 1.909774 (last week: 16)
  19. Atlanta: 1.966522 (last week: 14)
  20. Cleveland: 1.998699 (last week: 15)
  21. NY Jets: 1.968875 (last week: 19)
  22. Kansas City: 2.012522 (last week: 28)
  23. Cincinnati: 2.017317 (last week: 22)
  24. Jacksonville: 2.01462 (last week: 21)
  25. Tennessee: 2.087633 (last week: 26)
  26. Indianapolis: 2.123165 (last week: 24)
  27. Tampa Bay: 2.129159 (last week: 27)
  28. Washington: 2.22536 (last week: 32)
  29. Oakland: 2.256458 (last week: 29)
  30. New Orleans: 2.356132 (last week: 31)
  31. Buffalo: 2.362628 (last week: 23)
  32. NY Giants: 2.447389 (last week: 30)

Week 5 Quick Thoughts

Scattered stats and thoughts regarding Week 5 of the 2012 NFL Season…

New England 31, Denver 21
Adjusted Yards per Play: 5.33 – New England, 4.73 – Denver
AY/P Projected Point Totals: New England 33.88, Denver 22.30
Quick Thoughts:
1. Another Manning-Brady instant classic never materialized because of Broncos fumbles in the red zone by Willis McGahee and Demaryius Thomas (again!). Oh, and that pesky thing in which the Broncos couldn’t hold the Pats under 250 yards rushing. WHEN YOU’RE PLAYING THE NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS, STEVAN RIDLEY HAS TO BE YOUR NUMBER ONE CONCERN. Or something like that. Denver’s likely going to remain high in our Predictive rankings this week – they gained over a full yard per play more than New England yesterday – but it’s interesting to note how much of their value so far has been based around being down by multiple scores in the fourth quarter. Is Peyton Manning taking over the mantle of Best Garbage Time Quarterback (BGTQB) from Harvard alum Ryan Fitzpatrick? Only time will tell.

2. The Patriots have an interesting game next week at Seattle, who is playing as well defensively as anyone right now AND, you may have heard, is coached by beloved former Patriots coach Pete Carroll. I’m sure Bill Simmons will harp on this later in the week, but New England fans will probably not take a loss to Mr. Carroll very well. “OH MY GAWD. Losing a game to a formah coach who sucked when he was coaching owah team is a 38.7 on the Gut Punch Scale. Do you think any othah fanbase has evah had to deal with such consistent hawtbreak? STAWP. JUST STAWP IT.”

Pittsburgh 16, Philadelphia 14
Adjusted Yards per Play: 5.34 – Pittsburgh, 3.32 – Philadelphia
AY/P Projected Point Totals: Pittsburgh 25.94, Philadelphia 13.28

Quick Thought: Are there any Eagles fans still alive out there? Andy Reid’s always gotten his jollies out of giving his fanbase a collective heart attack, but he’s never been as brazen about it as he has this season. We’re gonna try a ball spot challenge that’s never going to overturn anything, then we’re gonna go for it on 4th-and-1 from our own 30? MY MOUSTACHE SAYS YES. And to think that it’s actually worked out okay so far! The Eagles made both 4th down conversions on their final drive and they scored a touchdown on the goal line in the shotgun formation. WHAT’S GOING ON HERE? Good thing Pittsburgh kicked the winning field goal at the end; otherwise, Eagles fans would have had to start considering the possibility that Andy’s turning into a master of late-game situations.

Atlanta 24, Washington 17
Adjusted Yards per Play: 4.77 – Atlanta, 5.13 – Washington
AY/P Projected Point Totals: Atlanta 27.60, Washington 17.59

Quick Thought: WHAT DID I TELL YOU, RGIII? Ugh, that man. Always running around with his head up, trying to get the ball downfield at all costs with no regard for life or limb. And now look what’s happened! He might miss a game or two! This is devastating. Pretty lackluster performance by the Falcons, by the way, but since they’re home against the Raiders next week, they’ll be undefeated going into the bye.

New Orleans 31, San Diego 24
Adjusted Yards per Play: 6.36 – New Orleans, 6.03 – San Diego
AY/P Projected Point Totals: New Orleans 29.53, San Diego 28.00

Quick Thought: Was that Dick Bavetta refereeing San Diego’s last drive of the game? We see blatant “Uh-uh, you guys are NOT winning this game” calls all the time in the NBA, but I don’t remember seeing it done in such an obvious manner as Carl Cheffers and crew did to the Chargers at the end last night. I liked how, after dubulently backing the Chargers up thirty yards on three straight penalties to effectively murder their chances, they called a five-yard penalty on the Saints for an automatic first down. “So…we’re cool, right?”

San Francisco 45, Buffalo 3
Adjusted Yards per Play: 10.97 – San Francisco, 2.37 – Buffalo
AY/P Projected Point Totals: San Francisco 49.37, Buffalo 7.79

Quick Thought: The 49ers are on as dominant a two-game stretch as you will ever find in the NFL. Against the Jets and Bills, they racked up 1130 Adjusted Yards and allowed 59. This is insane. Jim Harbaugh deserves to win Coach of the Year again.

Seattle 16, Carolina 12
Adjusted Yards per Play: 3.07 – Seattle, 2.69 – Carolina
AY/P Projected Point Totals: Seattle 13.60, Carolina 9.99

Quick Thought: At halftime, Cam Newton was 3-for-16, prompting a hearty round of 6-for-24 jokes at the SSLYAR castle. What connection does Cam Newton have with Kobe Bryant, you ask? None, actually, as far as I know. In my mind, you just have to take every conceivable opportunity to make fun of Kobe – whether it actually makes sense or not. Same rule applies with Andy Reid and Brendan Fraser, as a matter of fact.

Indianapolis 30, Green Bay 27
Adjusted Yards per Play: 5.38 – Indianapolis, 6.41 – Green Bay
AY/P Projected Point Totals: Indianapolis 34.20, Green Bay 27.93

Quick Thought: It’s bizarro world in Green Bay. Last year, the Packers ranked 26th in yards per carry, 30th in net yards per attempt allowed, and 26th in yards per carry allowed. You may also remember them being #1 in net yards per attempt. This year through five games, they’ve improved to 10th in yards per carry, 8th in net yards per attempt allowed, and 19th in yards per carry allowed but slipped to 28th in net yards per attempt. Football is a weird sport.

Minnesota 30, Tennessee 7
Adjusted Yards per Play: 6.02 – Minnesota, 2.78 – Tennessee
AY/P Projected Point Totals: Minnesota 28.81, Tennessee 13.70

Quick Thought: I mentioned this in the quarterly review last week, but Minnesota’s going to be a serious playoff contender the rest of the way. Take a look at their next five games: at Washington (possibly without RGIII), vs. Arizona, vs. Tampa Bay, at Seattle, vs. Detroit. There’s a real chance they could be 7-3 or 8-2 going into a Thanksgiving weekend game at Chicago. Football is a weird sport.

Miami 17, Cincinnati 13
Adjusted Yards per Play: 4.27 – Miami, 2.74 – Cincinnati
AY/P Projected Point Totals: Miami 19.22, Cincinnati 12.72

Quick Thought: Our recipient of the Gutless Coach of the Week Award goes to Marvin Lewis for having his Bengals kick a field goal down by four with three minutes left on a 4th-and-5 from the Dolphins 23. Marvin got the result he deserved when Mike Nugent pushed the attempt wide. As Herm Edwards would say, “You drive by that Krispy Kreme, you see that sign that say ‘Hot,’ you pull your car in there and you get me a dozen glazed donuts and you make sure they are on my desk on Saturday morning. I don’t care about anything else. And the sign gotta say … and the sign gotta say … gotta say ‘Hot,’ gotta’ say ‘Hot.'” Or something like that.

Baltimore 9, Kansas City 6
Adjusted Yards per Play: 4.60 – Baltimore, 2.18 – Kansas City
AY/P Projected Point Totals: Baltimore 18.07, Kansas City 10.59

Quick Thought: What an inspiring football game this was! Well done, guys. I don’t think Chiefs fans really understood what they were getting into when they cheered Matt Cassel’s concussion. IT’S BRADY QUINN COMING OFF THE BENCH. That’s no victory at all. Baltimore should be ashamed of themselves for only winning by three.

NY Giants 41, Cleveland 27
Adjusted Yards per Play: 7.14 – NY Giants, 6.39 – Cleveland
AY/P Projected Point Totals: NY Giants 36.21, Cleveland 24.65
Quick Thought: I think this text message exchange between Lucas and I at 1:13 P.M. yesterday afternoon appropriately sums things up (coincidentally the approximate time a certain Browns quarterback may or may not have thrown the ball straight to a Giants defender):
  • Lucas: I think the old Brandon Weeden is back.
  • Nathaniel: I concur.

THE END.

Chicago 41, Jacksonville 3
Adjusted Yards per Play: 7.07 – Chicago, 0.93 – Jacksonville
AY/P Projected Point Totals: Chicago 36.87, Jacksonville 3.52
Quick Thought: When I saw the Jaguars come out in black alternate jerseys in a game that started out at 89 degrees, I shook my head and said, “Watch, they’re going to completely wilt in the second half and give up 35 points.” MORE POWER THAN YOU REALIZE.

2012 NFL Week 5 Preview

Before we get into our Week 5 preview, let’s post a quick recap on last night’s Cardinals-Rams game…

St. Louis 17, Arizona 3
Adjusted Yards per Play: 4.39 – St. Louis, 3.05 – Arizona
AY/P Projected Point Totals: St. Louis 16.93, Arizona 16.56

Quick Thought: Because Arizona promptly began crapping the bed whenever they entered the red zone, a virtually even game ended up with St. Louis winning by a fairly comfortable margin. It looks like Danny Amendola broke his collarbone, however, so the Rams’ receiving core once again consists of five homeless people who came inside to get a warm meal (it’s nice to know some things in the NFL never change). Meanwhile, the Cardinals’ offensive line might just be life-alteringly bad; Kevin Kolb’s penchant for holding onto the ball for five seconds doesn’t help their cause, but the Rams were living in the Cardinals’ backfield all night on just three-and-four-man pressures. Hopefully the ’72 Dolphins aren’t so stuck on themselves that they celebrated this one.

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Below are SSLYAR’s Week 5 NFL Projections, ranked by the author’s subjective interest in watching each game. Home teams are italicized; projected winners against the spread are underlined. To see which games are being shown in your area, check out the506′s TV distribution maps. Our guest analyst this week is a regional manager of a small paper supply company in Slough, England: David Brent.

  1. New England Patriots 31, Denver Broncos 27 (in-depth preview here): “What is the single most important thing for a company? Is it the building? Is it the stock? Is it the turnover? It’s the people, investment in people. My proudest moment here wasn’t when I increased profits by 17%, or cut expenditure without losing a single member of staff. No. It was a young Greek guy, first job in the country, hardly spoke a word of English, but he came to me and he went ‘Mr Brent, will you be the Godfather to my child?’… Didn’t happen in the end. We had to let him go, he was rubbish. He was rubbish.”
  2. Philadelphia Eagles 26, Pittsburgh Steelers 23: “I haven’t got a sign on the door that says ‘white people only’. I don’t care if you’re black, brown, yellow – Orientals make very good workers.”
  3. Atlanta Falcons 33, Washington Redskins 31: “Look at this – ‘Dutch girls must be punished for having big boobs.’ Now you do not punish a girl, Dutch or otherwise, for having big boobs.”
  4. New Orleans Saints 28, San Diego Chargers 23: “I think there’s been a rape up there! … I got his attention. Get their attention.”
  5. San Francisco 49ers 30, Buffalo Bills 21: “And don’t call my second in command an ass-faced-weasel.”
  6. Carolina Panthers 21, Seattle Seahawks 19: “Who says famine has to be depressing?”
  7. Indianapolis Colts 28, Green Bay Packers 27: “You’ve seen me entertain and raise money, but maybe I’d like to do that in the future for a living, you know. Use my humour and my profile to both help and amuse people, you know. And if it’s ideas for TV shows, game shows or whatever you want, I’m your man. I’m already exploring the entertainment avenue with my management training, but I’d like to do that on a global scale really. And that’s not going ‘Ooh, look at me today, I’m entertaining whilst saving lives, aren’t I brilliant?’ It’s going, ‘If you think I’m brilliant, then give generously and help save these guys who are starving, but are also brilliant.’ Not as entertainers, a lot of them can’t even speak English, but you know, don’t give them their own game show, but save them from dying at least. And then maybe they could do something in their own country, on television or whatever they have, the wireless or I don’t know, give them a job on the world service or something.”
  8. Houston Texans 20, New York Jets 10: “Excuse me, everybody. What am I doing in there with a dildo?”
  9. Minnesota Vikings 21, Tennessee Titans 17: “I froze your tears, and made a dagger / and stabbed it in my cock, forever.”
  10. Cincinnati Bengals 28, Miami Dolphins 24: “Well, there’s good news and bad news. The bad news is that Neil will be taking over both branches, and some of you will lose your jobs. Those of you who are kept on will have to relocate to Swindon, if you wanna stay. I know. Gutting. On a more positive note, the good news is I’ve been promoted, so… every cloud. You’re still thinking about the bad news, aren’t you?”
  11. Baltimore Ravens 31, Kansas City Chiefs 20: “We all wake up and we go ‘oh, I ache, I’m not 18 any more, you know, I’m thirty ni- you know, I’m in my thirties, I’m not-‘, but so what, at least I’ve got my health. And if you haven’t got your health-if you’ve got one leg, at least I haven’t got two legs missing. And if you have lost both legs and both arms, just go ‘at least I’m not dead.’ … I’d rather be dead in that situation, to be honest.”
  12. New York Giants 27, Cleveland Browns 17: “If you were to ask me to name three geniuses, I probably wouldn’t say Einstein, Newton…I’d go Milligan, Cleese, Everett. Sessions.”
  13. Chicago Bears 24, Jacksonville Jaguars 10: “‘If you want the rainbow, you’ve gotta put up with the rain.’ Do you know which ‘philosopher’ said that? Dolly Parton. And people say she’s just a big pair of tits.”

2012 Record Thus Far: 38-26 (11-4 last week)

2012 Record Against the Spread Thus Far: 27-37 (8-7 last week)

Game of the Week: Broncos vs. Patriots

Look, you don’t need a special primer to get psyched up for this one. It’s Manning vs. Brady! Only two of the five best quarterbacks of all-time going head-to-head for the thirteenth time. One of the quarterbacks may be wearing different colors this Sunday, but the superlative knowledge and talents of both future Hall of Famers will be as constant as ever. For this edition of Game of the Week, we’re going to take a look back at three of the best regular season duels Peyton Manning and Tom Brady have been a part of…

Who: Denver Broncos vs. New England Patriots

Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA

When: 3:25 P.M., Sunday, October 7th

Network: CBS (Jim Nantz, Phil Simms)

Key Past Manning-Brady Regular Season Games:

  1. November 30, 2003: Patriots 38, Colts 34. Manning and Brady had faced off twice in 2001 in the last season that the Colts and Patriots were division rivals, but this was the first matchup with serious stakes involved for both teams. The Patriots and Colts were both 9-2 coming into the Thanksgiving weekend showdown at the RCA Dome and both quarterbacks lived up to the hype. Brady was an efficient 26-of-35 for 236 yards and two touchdowns and Manning threw for 278 yards and four touchdowns himself. The Colts looked primed to come all the way back from a 31-10 deficit when they drove down to the Patriots 1-yard line late in the fourth quarter. Unbelievably, though, the Patriots held up on all four downs, hanging on to a 38-34 victory that would eventually give them home-field advantage over the Colts in the AFC Championship Game that was played two months later. And I think we know how that one turned out.
  2. September 9, 2004: Patriots 27, Colts 24. The Patriots and Colts opened up the 2004 regular season with another barn-burner, this one in Foxborough. Brady threw for 336 yards and three touchdowns, but in a foreshadowing of their incredible offensive performance to come that season, the Colts seemed to move the ball up and down the field at will. Manning threw for 256 yards and two touchdowns and Edgerrin James added 142 yards on the ground. Unfortunately for Manning and the Colts, they shot themselves in the foot too often to secure the victory; James fumbled on the goal line with under four minutes left and Manning took a costly sack at the end of the fourth quarter to back up Mike Vanderjagt’s field goal attempt to 48 yards. “Our idiot kicker” suffered his first miss in 42 attempts and the Patriots hung on for a 27-24 victory.
  3. November 15, 2009: Colts 35, Patriots 34. You may remember a few subplots from this game. It was the first Manning-Brady game after Brady’s knee injury in 2008 and the Patriots seemed primed to wreck Indianapolis’ perfect season, stretching out to a 31-14 fourth quarter lead behind Brady’s 375 yards and three touchdowns. But, as if there was any doubt, Manning refused to quit, leading a pair of scoring drives to cut the Patriots’ lead to 34-28. On the Patriots’ following drive, a certain 4th-and-2 situation arose that Bill Belichick chose to handle in a certain controversial manner. Obviously, New England failed to convert and Manning hit Reggie Wayne with a one yard touchdown pass with sixteen seconds left to give the Colts a highly improbable 35-34 victory.

Steve Stone’s Said in Stone Cold Lock of the Game: “My partner that day was Hank Sauer, a former home run hitter and baseball executive with the San Francisco Giants. Hank was my Triple A Fresno manager, and we had a cocktail after the round.”

Projected Final Score: Patriots 31, Broncos 27

Team to Bet On If Gambling Were Legal: Broncos (+6.5)

COAS / SSLYAR Pigskin Pick ‘Em: Week 5

The Confessions of a Sportscaster/Someone Still Loves You Alberto Riveron blog coalition rolls on with its Week 5 picks today over at COAS. And unlike last week at this time, both of us have considerable momentum to build on. I shrugged off an embarassing 4-12 mark in Week 3 to rebound with my first winning week of the year (8-7). Hooray! Unfortunately for me, Lucas was on fire, going 11-4 and expanding his lead to nine games. Somewhat incredibly, however, we’re disagreeing on TEN out of the the fourteen games this week; I’m somewhat terrified right now. One of the ten we disagree on is tonight’s Cardinals-Rams tilt; he’s taking the Cardinals at 1.5 point favorites, I’m siding with the Rams. Either way, there’s a 100% guarantee that a team that has at one time or another played in St. Louis WILL win. I can promise you that.

Lucas’ 2012 Record So Far: 35-26 (11-4 last week)

Nathaniel’s 2012 Record So Far: 26-37 (8-7 last week)