Game of the Week: Cowboys vs. Redskins plus the rest of the Week 17 Preview

Doesn’t it always seem like it comes down to the last game of the season for the Cowboys? Four out of the last five years, Dallas has played Week 17 games that have determined a playoff spot and/or the NFC East title. They grabbed destiny by the balls in 2009, blowing out Philadelphia to take the NFC East. In 2008 and 2011, however: things didn’t work out so well for them: they got humiliated by the Eagles (2008) and trounced by the Giants (2011). Now they travel to Washington in an attempt to even up their record in these high-stakes Week 17 matchups. Does Cowboys-Redskins for the NFC East championship sound like an agreeable Game of the Week choice to all of you? Good, because that’s what we’re going with…

Who: Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Redskins

Where: FedEx Field, Landover, MD

When: 7:30 P.M., Sunday, December 30th

Network: NBC (Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth, Michele Tafoya)

Key Storylines:

1. What will Dallas do differently against RGIII this time? You may remember Robert Griffin III playing so well against the Cowboys in their Thanksgiving Day matchup that he literally set anyone who touched ablaze immediately. To paraphrase Sir Rasheed Wallace: stat don’t lie. RGIII went 19 of 27 for 304 yards, 4 touchdowns and 1 interception and made several OH MY SWEET LORD THAT’S BEAUTIFUL throws in the Redskins’ 38-31victory. What different strategies does Cowboys defensive coordinator Rob Ryan have in mind for this go-around? It’s tough to pinpoint an easy solution for Dallas, defensively. If they sit everyone back in coverage, Mike and Kyle Shanahan will be more than willing to just run the zone read with RGIII and Alfred Morris and pick six or seven yards a pop on the ground all day. If they crowd the line of scrimmage trying to take the run away, then the deep play-action pass to Washington’s many inconsistent yet speedy wide receivers will put an inordinate amount of stress on safety Gerald Sensabaugh, who sucks to begin with. Time to dig deep into that Ryan family playbook and come up with something crazy, Rob.
2. Will Tony Romo consider playing BOTH halves of this game? Tony was on fire in the second half of the Thanksgiving game, throwing for 334 yards and three touchdowns as he led the Cowboys to 28 points. In one half! That’s pretty good and would have been even better if Dallas hadn’t fallen behind 28-3 at halftime. Romo’s had virtually no help from the running game this year – the Cowboys are ranked 31st in yards per carry – so he, along with Dez Bryant and Jason Witten, have had to carry the Dallas offense on his back through the passing game to the point where he’s only 315 yards away from 5,000 for the season. If he plays as efficiently as he has the past two weeks against Pittsburgh and New Orleans, then Dallas will have no troubles offensively Sunday night. And that would be good because, as we said above, it’s extremely questionable as to whether the Cowboys can slow down the Redskins’ offense.
3. For all (or a significant portion of) the marbles. The Redskins can actually get into the playoffs even if they lose Sunday night: losses by Minnesota and Chicago would assure them at least a wild-card entry and a fall-back option should the doo-doo hit the proverbial fan against the Cowboys. On the other hand, fall-back options are for sissies and Frenchmen. If you have a chance to win your division, secure a home game in the first round of the playoffs AND send the Cowboys home for the season…well, that’s quite a haul right there. And as for Dallas, they’ve got all their eggs tied up in this NFC East basket, so they might as well try and win this one, too. What a loss would mean for the job security of Jason Garrett and Tony Romo is a question better suited for after they lose. For now, let’s just sit back and get psyched for the last game of the 2012 regular season – chances are it’ll be entertaining.

Steve Stone’s Said in Stone Cold Lock of the Game: “Rader just went right down the line through six or seven guys and slapped them right on the side of the face, then ran back laughing to his third base position.”

Projected Final Score: Redskins 30, Cowboys 28

Team To Bet On If Gambling Were Legal: Cowboys (+3.5)

***********************************************************************

Below are SSLYAR’s Week 17 NFL Projections, ranked by the author’s subjective interest in watching each game. Home teams are italicized; projected winners against the spread are underlined. To see which games are being shown in your area, check out the506′s TV distribution maps. Our guest analyst this week is the legendary former coach of the Green Bay Packers (and Washington Redskins): Vince Lombardi. 

1. Washington Redskins 30, Dallas Cowboys28: “Winners never quit and quitters never win.”
2. Green Bay Packers 21, Minnesota Vikings 20: “Winning is not a sometime thing; it’s an all time thing. You don’t win once in a while, you don’t do things right once in a while, you do them right all the time. Winning is habit. Unfortunately, so is losing.”
3. Detroit Lions 24, Chicago Bears 20: “Football is like life – it requires perseverance, self-denial, hard work, sacrifice, dedication and respect for authority.”
4. Houston Texans27, Indianapolis Colts 21: “Dictionary is the only place that success comes before work. Hard work is the price we must pay for success. I think you can accomplish anything if you’re willing to pay the price.”
5. New York Giants 28, Philadelphia Eagles23: “Perfection is not attainable, but if we chase perfection we can catch excellence.”
6. Denver Broncos 28, Kansas City Chiefs14: “If winning isn’t everything, why do they keep score?”
7. New England Patriots 30, Miami Dolphins 20: “People who work together will win, whether it be against complex football defenses, or the problems of modern society.”
8. San Francisco 49ers 24, Arizona Cardinals 7: “Confidence is contagious. So is lack of confidence.”
9. Seattle Seahawks 30, St. Louis Rams21: “Show me a good loser, and I’ll show you a loser.”
10. Cincinnati Bengals 24, Baltimore Ravens 23: “Leaders aren’t born they are made. And they are made just like anything else, through hard work. And that’s the price we’ll have to pay to achieve that goal, or any goal.”
11. Carolina Panthers31, New Orleans Saints 30: “The quality of a person’s life is in direct proportion to their commitment to excellence, regardless of their chosen field of endeavor.”
12. Atlanta Falcons 31, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 26: “Coaches who can outline plays on a black board are a dime a dozen. The ones who win get inside their player and motivate.”
13. Pittsburgh Steelers 20, Cleveland Browns 13: “Once you agree upon the price you and your family must pay for success, it enables you to ignore the minor hurts, the opponent’s pressure, and the temporary failures.”
14. San Diego Chargers 21, Oakland Raiders 14: “The measure of who we are is what we do with what we have.”
15. Buffalo Bills 23, New York Jets 16: “A school without football is in danger of deteriorating into a medieval study hall.”
16. Tennessee Titans 24, Jacksonville Jaguars 19: “I don’t think there’s a punch-line scheduled, is there?”

2012 Record Thus Far: 158-81-1 (11-5 last week)

2012 Record Against the Spread Thus Far: 125-115 (9-7 last week)

COAS / SSLYAR Pigskin Pick ‘Em: Week 17

Welp. This is it. Only sixteen of the NFL’s 256 regular season games still need to be played and they’ll all come this Sunday, bringing the Confessions of a Sportscaster/Someone Still Loves You Alberto Riveron joint NFL game-picking blog coalition to an end. But I’d like to think we’ve learned a lot along the way. Never pick the Lions for anything other than “Team Most Likely To Achieve Excruciating, Excruciating Defeat.” Load up your blog with pictures of the Steelers’ terrible throwback jerseys and Andy Reid memes if you want lots of page views. And if you’re ever hitting a bad case of writer’s block and just don’t know what to write…a Mark Sanchez GIF is never a bad option. Thanks for doing this with me, buddy. I’ve enjoyed myself greatly.

Lucas has a three-game lead heading into the final week; should he hang on to win, you’ll see his guest column around these parts in the near future. Meanwhile, you can find our Week 17 picks over at COAS. Enjoy!

Lucas’ 2012 Record Thus Far: 128-112 (8-8 last week)

Nathaniel’s 2012 Record Thus Far: 125-115 (9-7 last week)

Game of the Week: 49ers vs. Seahawks plus the rest of the Week 16 Preview

Since the NFL realigned into eight divisions in 2002, the NFC West has been the laughingstock of the division world for most of that time. Four times, its division champion has finished with less than ten wins and who can forget the epic Charlie Whitehurst-Sam Bradford Sunday Night battle from two years ago to decide which 7-9 NFC West team would make the playoffs? But this year, the laughingstock has become the…chuckler? Is that the right term? Anyway, the 49ers and Seahawks are both on fire right now and major threats to win the Super Bowl, so let’s exercise our Game of the Week privileges here and see what happens…

Who: San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks

Where: CenturyLink Field, Seattle, WA

When: 7:30 P.M., Sunday, December 23rd

Network: NBC (Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth, Michele Tafoya)

Key Storylines:

1. CAN’T HARDLY RECOGNIZE THESE TWO. San Francisco and Seattle have already played once this season. They met on a Thursday night back in October and the home 49ers took that one 13-6. There’s a few things that have changed with these teams – most recognizably, at the quarterback position. Alex Smith was not yet concussed and still the 49ers starter at that point and while some news outlets have tossed out the half-baked idea that Jim Harbaugh could throw Smith into some action late in the season to get enough pass attempts to break Drew Brees’ completion percentage record, it will likely be Colin Kaepernick who will need to fulfill the Thrower of an Awful Red Zone Interception role if Sunday’s game is to go the same as October’s. Kaepernick’s been awfully impressive since Wally Pipp-ing Smith, but one guy who’s arguably been better is his Seahawks counterpart, Russell Wilson. Wilson was overwhelmed by the 49ers’ stifling defense back in October, but he’s been scorching hot in the second half of the season. He’s now up to 11th in Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt – a pretty remarkable feat, considering how slow he started the season – and has added 400 rushing yards and 3 rushing touchdowns, all of which came during last week’s slaughter of the Bills. The quarterbacks you saw play in this game back in October may have been underwhelming, but they probably won’t be Sunday night.
2. BREAK UP THE SEAHAWKS. Seriously. Seattle has scored 50+ points in back-to-back games, a feat that has only previously been done by the 1950 Rams and Giants – and both those teams had one of those whippings come against a team that would go defunct at the end of the season (the prehistoric Baltimore Colts, if anybody’s interested). Seattle put up 58 against a Cardinals defense that has ranked among the top quarter of NFL defenses all year and then hit 50 against a Bills defense that had only given up 16.75 points per game in their previous four contests (out of respect, we won’t mention their first nine games). So Darrell Bevell’s offense is humming right now and they’re mainly doing it on the ground – no team has passed less this year than the Seahawks. Marshawn Lynch has gone Beast Mode for the entire season, Wilson has become a dangerous threat in the zone read and when teams get too focused on the running game, Wilson goes over the top to Golden Tate or Sidney Rice. Coincidentally, the last time they were held under 300 yards was that October matchup with the 49ers. Chances are they’ll do a bit better on Sunday.
3. Pete Carroll might actually be a good NFL coach? Huh? We talked about Harbaugh in depth in last week’s spiel, so let’s take a moment to recognize the job Pete Carroll’s done since taking over before the 2010 season and all say together: WHERE DID THIS COME FROM? This is the same guy who ran Bill Parcells’ Patriots into the ground in the late ’90s and left Bill Belichick a big, quivery, slobbering mess of a team to fix up? This is the same guy who apparently coached the Jets for one season, making an enticing filling of a coaching crap sandwich (Bruce Coslet and Rich Kotite being the buns, of course)? This is the same guy who only won at USC because of major recruiting violations (of course, it’s merely a coincidence he left for the NFL JUUUUUSSSSSTTTT before the Trojans got hit with some major sanctions)? Really? The Seahawks are this good because of HIM? Whatever, man. I’ll embrace this weird future that we’re living and raise a glass to all the hard work Pete Carroll’s done in the Great Northwest. You’re all right, Pete!

Steve Stone’s Said in Stone Cold Lock of the Game: “As an example of that, I give you Bert Blyleven and his 60 career shutouts.”

Projected Final Score: Seahawks 21, 49ers 19

Team To Bet On If Gambling Were Legal: Seahawks (+1.5)

***********************************************************************

Below are SSLYAR’s Week 16 NFL Projections, ranked by the author’s subjective interest in watching each game. Home teams are italicized; projected winners against the spread are underlined. To see which games are being shown in your area, check out the506′s TV distribution maps. Our guest analyst this week is a doctor at Sacred Heart Hospital in Southern California: Dr. Bob Kelso.

1. Seattle Seahawks 21, San Francisco 49ers 19: “Every mother wanted me to marry their daughter cause I was a doctor. And I used that to sleep with all those mothers. That’s what ‘house call’ used to mean.”
2. Pittsburgh Steelers 21, Cincinnati Bengals 20: “You are going to shut your damn yapper and listen for a change, because I got you pegged, sweetheart. You want to take the easy way out with the surgery because you’re scared. You’re scared because if you try and fail, there’s only you to blame. Well, Missy, let me break this down for you, Bobbo-style. Life is scary. Get used to it.”
3. Baltimore Ravens 24, New York Giants 23: “Listen up, bozos. That gentleman over there is basically a cash piñata waiting to be whacked open. So how about someone diagnoses him so I can get my candy?”
4. Houston Texans 24, Minnesota Vikings 16: “A joke? You think it’s funny they already gave away my parking spot? You think it’s funny that one of the surgeons paid his dwarf cousin, Lance, two hundred dollars to show up at rounds and sing, ‘Ding-dong, Kelso’s dead!’?”
5. Dallas Cowboys 31, New Orleans Saints 26: “Now, our old hospital psychiatrist used to write my wife, Enid, a prescription for crazy pills. He was a dear, dear friend, but he died or moved or something and now I need you to do the honors.”
6. Washington Redskins 23, Philadelphia Eagles 21: “Ah, back when I was a resident I remember blah, blah, blah, nostalgic story now get the hell out of my office!”
7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28, St. Louis Rams 27: “Ketchup is for winners, Ted!”
8. Chicago Bears 16, Arizona Cardinals 9: “Well, of course you’ll beat her, son, she’s having half her brain removed.”
9. Green Bay Packers 27, Tennessee Titans 14: “Dr. Dorian, I’ve kept my mouth shut about the recent sexual harrassment complaints because I don’t think it’s fair to punish a man for making small talk. Or say, asking his secretary for just once, to dress up as a geisha girl and call him ‘Kelso San.'”
10. New England Patriots 48, Jacksonville Jaguars 14: “OK, but in this little fantasy of yours, can I not have prostate problems?”
11. Denver Broncos 27, Cleveland Browns 10: “Of course you had to break up with him. No one you love should ever sell your car without asking and then blow the money on meth.”
12. Indianapolis Colts 24, Kansas City Chiefs 23: “Let’s cut to the chase, freak show. If you’re a forty-four-year-old man wearing a jumpsuit and you are not climbing into the cockpit of a rocket ship, chances are you’ve made a lot of wrong turns along the way. Good talk.”
13. Detroit Lions 30, Atlanta Falcons 24: “That’s a great anecdote, you should write that down in your journal so your kids can read it when you’re dead.”
14. Carolina Panthers 31, Oakland Raiders 21: “I’m gonna tell you the same thing I told my new gardener; no way, Jose. His name is actually Jose, that’s why I hired him.”
15. Miami Dolphins 27, Buffalo Bills24: “Tough Titties Turkleton!”
16. San Diego Chargers 14, New York Jets 13: “Hey, champ! What has two thumbs and doesn’t give a crap? Bob Kelso! How ya doin’?”

2012 Record Thus Far: 147-76-1 (11-5 last week)

2012 Record Against the Spread Thus Far: 116-108 (9-7 last week)

COAS / SSLYAR Pigskin Pick ‘Em: Week 16

Only two weeks left in the regular season, gang! Get that Christmas shopping done on Saturday (or postpone it ’til Monday) and make sure to carve out some room for FOOTBAW on Sunday because we’re quickly running out of opportunities to watch the Jets embarrass themselves. With that in mind, the Confessions of a Sportscaster/Someone Still Loves You Alberto Riveron blog coalition rolls forward with their Week 16 picks. Lucas followed my strong showing in Week 14 with a clutch week of his own in Week 15, going 11-5 and boosting his lead back up to four games. This week, however, we are disagreeing on ELEVEN games. HOLY CRAP. What’s going on here? If anything, you would think our disagreements would lessen and lessen over the course of the season thanks to your friend and mine, Mr. Groupthink. Huh. In this week’s picks, we honor hilarious family Christmas photos, that awesome kid from the Cam Newton Play60 ad, and digging for gold. Enjoy!

Atlanta Falcons at Detroit Lions (+3.5)

Lucas: Falcons. With the talent in place on this team around Matthew Stafford and Megatron, how much blame does Jim Schwartz deserve for this team’s underachieving? Especially when they get blown out Arizona. ARIZONA! I mean, Nathaniel or I might be better quarterbacks than everyone on the Cardinals’ roster!

Nathaniel: Lions. With each passing loss that brings more and more excruciating pain to Detroit fans, I tend to derive more and more enjoyment from calling the Lions the Loins. Not sure why. Feel free to start calling your team by that moniker, though, Detroit fans; it’ll make the rest of the season much more enjoyable, I’m sure!

New Orleans Saints at Dallas Cowboys (-3.5)

Lucas: Cowboys. Am I really picking a Tony Romo-led team in December? The Saints could sneak back to .500 for the year, but Dallas has too much to play for right now, plus we need to set up a Week 17 game where RGIII comes back from injury and throws for 350 yards and runs for 150 more to lead Washington back to the playoffs.

Nathaniel: Cowboys. There’s still an outside shot for the Saints to give up 7000 yards defensively this season; they’d basically have to give up 500 yards each of the last two weeks for it to happen, but it’s on the table! Let’s hope Buddy Ryan never watches any of their games – I can only imagine the number of TV screens he’s destroyed by now if he has.

Tennessee Titans at Green Bay Packers (-12.5)

Lucas: Titans. I don’t think Green Bay deserves to be a double digit favorite at this stage even though they seem to be getting healthy and better at the right time and finding ways to win every week. Also I think I could keep a damper down on my family better than Green Bay likely will on Chris Johnson, who’s bound to break at least 1 big run.

Nathaniel: Packers. Let’s all give Mark Sanchez a big round of applause for making the Titans defense seem decent last week. Lord knows they’ll need the self-esteem boost before the slight uptick in quarterback performance they’ll see this week.

Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs (+6.5)

Lucas: Colts. I don’t think we’re going to need #Chuckstrong for this one.

Nathaniel: Chiefs. Look, it’s what the numbers said, OK? I don’t have any idea how they’re going to cover, either.

Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (-4.5)

Lucas: Dolphins. Guest picking this game for me is the coach of the Moose Jaw Lightning: “Now remember, the goal of the game is to get the ball into the end zone, and to prevent your opponent from doing the same.” Seems fitting then that in Canada, Buffalo couldn’t do the latter very well.

Nathaniel: Bills. Isn’t there about a 90% chance there will be a greater home field advantage for the Bills this week than when they were the “home team” in Toronto? There’s got to be thousands upon thousands of upstate New Yorkers in South Florida and it’s not like the Dolphins are hot commodities down there, either. Mark my words: the crowd will have at least a 30% Bills fan makeup Sunday.

San Diego Chargers at New York Jets (+2.5)

Lucas: Jets. I mean, there’s no way Greg McElroy will pull a Mark Sanchez, right?

Nathaniel: Chargers. I’ve supported Rex Ryan through quite a lot this season, but leapfrogging Greg McElroy over Tebow on the depth chart is the last straw. YOU CAN GO BACK TO COACHING LINEBACKERS AT EAST NOSEPICK STATE FOR ALL I CARE, REX. The damage has been done.

Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles (+4.5)

Lucas: Redskins. We need Part 2 of the Battle for the NFC East next week to go the way it’s supposed to. And it’s against Philly. Come on. All we’re missing is having a couple crazed Eagle fans tying up Andy Reid at midfield for the crowd to throw snowballs at him like they did against Santa. The lesson, as always: Stay classy, Philly.

Nathaniel: Eagles. Never underestimate the power of the Redskins defense to make bad quarterbacks seem competent. This is your time to shine, Nick Foles! Make us all proud, you floppy-haired hippy.

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (-4.5)

Lucas: Bengals. At this point I think the Steelers are starting to fall off a bit and I think Cincy has another playoff trip written all over them.

Nathaniel: Bengals. The Steeler wideouts the past few weeks have each taken turns sabotaging Pittsburgh’s playoff hopes. Emmanuel Sanders got the ball knocked out of his hands by air in the Ravens game a few weeks ago and last week the normally reliable Antonio Brown fumbled a punt return, allowing the Cowboys to make a rousing comeback (WHAT’S THIS WORLD COMING TO???). For this week, my guess is Mike Wallace has an identity crisis mid-play where he starts believe he is the late 60 Minutes anchor, not the fast-as-crap wide receiver he really is, and Roethlisberger throws an interception because Wallace tries to interview Terrence Newman. Terrence don’t give interviews mid-play.

St. Louis Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5)

Lucas: Rams. Unfortunately for Greg Schiano’s team, the defense hasn’t really kept up with the offense and they’re coming back down to earth, and I think the Rams might be a tad underrated.

Nathaniel: Rams. The Bucs’ offense is whack. They either look like the ’99 Rams (with Josh Freeman expertly impersonating Kurt Warner) or the ’09 Rams (with Freeman expertly impersonating Kyle Boller) with no in-between. Weren’t those fun days, Rams fans? I mean the ’99 team, obviously – that ’09 offense made this year’s Cardinals offense look like Air Coryell.

Oakland Raiders at Carolina Panthers (-8.5)

Lucas: Raiders. I get that Oakland’s defense is terrible, but why is Carolina favored by this much? I mean, the only way I could see it work is if I’m playing tight end for the kid that will replace Cam Newton.

Nathaniel: Panthers. Does Mike Tolbert have inside tips on the Raiders’ offensive terminology like he did last week with the Chargers? If he doesn’t, here’s my tip to the Panther defense: don’t drop the ball when Carson throws it to you. Otherwise, all those yards they just put up on this drive might actually lead to points!

New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars (+14.5)

Lucas: Patriots. This is the biggest line of the year. And it scares me. But based on what we saw Sunday night, if any team could beat this big a spread, it would be Tom Brady and the Patriots.

Nathaniel: Patriots. What a terrible time to be a patsy going up against an angry Pats team that will have only a full week’s frustration built up from that disappoint loss to San Francisco. At least let them wear white, Shahid Khan! That way, they won’t get heat stroke while giving up 59.

Minnesota Vikings at Houston Texans (-7.5)

Lucas: Vikings. Houston has struggled a bit lately, especially on defense it seems. How do they plan on stopping Adrian Peterson? How does anyone plan on stopping Adrian Peterson?

Nathaniel: Texans. I don’t have anything interesting to add here, so here’s a screenshot of Colts center A.Q. Shipley picking his nose in the waning seconds of last week’s Colts-Texans game:

Cleveland Browns at Denver Broncos (-13.5)

Lucas: Browns. Cleveland’s defense is better than that. Yeah, they have Brandon Weeden, but 13 ½ points is a ton to be giving any team.

Nathaniel: Broncos. If there’s one guy you can trust to take care of business against an inferior opponent, it’s Peyton Manning. It’s how he’s won 77 straight games of Ping-Pong against Eli in their parent’s basement (a streak dating back to 1988) and it’s how he’s going to beat the Browns this Sunday.

Chicago Bears at Arizona Cardinals (+5.5)

Lucas: Cardinals. This is more an indication of how bad the Bears offense is as opposed to the level of play in Arizona. Not to say the Bears can’t win, but they can’t ever seem to get more than one offensive touchdown in a given week.

Nathaniel: Bears. “We’re here in the third quarter of the fourth quarter of our season…We like our team…Jay is our quarterback…We gotta a lot of football left to – Oh, who am I kidding, we are screwed, my friends. WE ARE SCREWED!!!!!!”

New York Giants at Baltimore Ravens (+2.5)

Lucas: Giants. The Giants are cold and in that 3-way tie for first. This is usually where they flip a switch and become terrifying. Also Joe Flacco… you are not elite. Stop it.

Nathaniel: Ravens. There’s a couple different schools of thought on the second-to-last game of the season for the Giants. The first is that they’ll win and gain momentum for a Super Bowl run (like in 2007 and 2011). The second is that they’ll crash and burn spectacularly and gain momentum for early golfing vacations (like in 2009 and 2010). So, as always, stay away from betting actual money on this game. I MEAN IT GUYS. THE GIANTS LOVE SEEING YOU SUFFER.

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (+1.5)

Lucas: Seahawks. After what San Francisco did to New England on Sunday, this is a harder decision than it looks. But we’re probably looking at a bloodbath here, and it’s in Seattle. I’m not betting against that home field advantage, with or without BS officiating.

Nathaniel: Seahawks. Remember when no team in the NFC West could get to .500 just two years ago and now these two whippersnappers here are arguably the two best teams in the league? Should be a phenomenal game.

Lucas’ 2012 Record So Far: 120-104 (11-5 last week)

Nathaniel’s 2012 Record So Far: 116-108 (9-7 last week)

COAS / SSLYAR Pigskin Pick ‘Em: Week 15

Alright, folks, we’re getting down to the nitty-gritty of the season here and in a development that has brought shock and confusion even to myself, the Confessions of a Sportscaster / Someone Still Loves You Alberto Riveron NFL picks battle is growing tighter than the belt around Louie Anderson’s waist. I had my best week of the season in Week 14, going 12-4 and getting above .500 for the first time all year. THE IMPOSSIBLE DREAM HAS BEEN FULFILLED! Lucas went 8-8 and now leads by two games with three weeks to go. In this week’s picks column over at COAS, we disagree on eight games while discussing Jim Caldwell’s blinking patterns, spunky San Diego students who cause traffic hazards by throwing footballs on I-5, and Jerry Jones’ ever-expanding quest to get every gross bodily function possible on television. Trust me. You’ll enjoy this one.

Lucas’ 2012 Record So Far: 109-99 (8-8 last week)

Nathaniel’s 2012 Record So Far: 107-101 (12-4 last week)

COAS / SSLYAR Pigskin Pick ‘Em: Week 14

The Confessions of a Sportscaster / Someone Still Loves You Alberto Riveron blog coalition is back for another week of crazy antics, hilarious web links, and, yes, NFL picks that may or may not be slightly better than just flipping a coin. Last week, Lucas and I both (theoretically) did better than a fair, unbiased coin – I went 10-6, he went 9-7. I’m even close to rising above .500 for the first time all year! THE LONG, PAINFUL JOURNEY HAD MEANING AFTER ALL. Lucas still has a sizable advantage with four weeks to go, but somehow we’re disagreeing on ten games this week. Ten! This is the biggest difference in opinion we’ve had since…well, probably ever, we’re two pretty agreeable people most of the time. Naturally with such a huge difference in opinion, we’ll probably end up with the same record this week regardless. ONTO THE PICKS…

Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders (+10.5)

Lucas: Broncos. At some point in this game, Carson Palmer will try to hit Denarius Moore on an out
route but miss and almost hit Peyton Manning in the head, causing him to yell out “G******it Carson!” Peyton will then come out and get about 500 yards passing against this horrific defense.

Nathaniel: Raiders. Can Carson Palmer manage the unthinkable – combining a near 5,000 yard passing season with a 4-12 record as a starting quarterback? I think you all know what I’m rooting for! Taking Oakland here only because it’s to find any situation in which a home team should be getting double-digit points. Even the Chiefs covered in this same situation a couple weeks ago!

St. Louis Rams at Buffalo Bills (-3.5)

Lucas: Rams. Can you believe St. Louis could conceivably still win the NFC West? I think those tough San Fran games give them the edge here.

Nathaniel: Rams. St. Louis has been really tough against the two heavyweights from their own division (San Francisco and Seattle), going 2-0-1 against those two so far. They’ve also been really bad against the AFC East, going 0-3 and getting blown out in the process by New England (understandable) and the Jets (WHAT THE HELL IS GOING ON HERE?). Maybe Sam Bradford gets skittish whenever anyone brings up the old AFL?

Dallas Cowboys at Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5)

Lucas: Bengals. Andy Dalton is, pretty quietly, putting together an excellent season for a team with
a good shot at the playoffs. Dallas is just too inconsistent for my blood.

Nathaniel: Cowboys. Everybody is still assuming that the Cowboys are going to end up choking in the end even though they’ve won three out of four – this means they have to win this week to catch their fans off-guard and get their hopes up, THEN still choke at then end, right? Wait a minute. Good God, that’s…that’s Bill Simmons logic!!

Kansas City Chiefs at Cleveland Browns (-5.5)

Lucas: Browns. So NFL Films partnered up with the Travel Channel to follow a team around for a
new series called “NFL Road Tested”… and they decided to follow Cleveland around?

Nathaniel: Browns. If Brady Quinn goes 19-for-23 again, I will buy everyone in America a Papa John’s pizza from one of Peyton Manning’s franchises in Denver. Don’t let your country down, Brady!

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-5.5)

Lucas: Colts. So now it’s possible Chuck Pagano will be back on the sideline by the end of the
year? Why wouldn’t I bet on this team, especially if they’re at home? I maintain: you can’t bet against #Chuckstrong. Scarier thought: Indy can still mathematically lock up home field throughout the AFC playoffs.

Nathaniel: Titans. Every time I pick against the Colts, I feel like one of those villains from a bad sports movie who has no redeeming qualities and generally hates everything related to love and puppies. And…it’s strangely empowering. DON’T GO CONGRATULATING YOURSELF JUST YET, MR. LUCK. THERE ARE POWERFUL PEOPLE WHO COULD MAKE THINGS VERY…UNEASY FOR SOMEONE SUCH AS YOURSELF.

Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (+2.5)

Lucas: Vikings. Granted, Christian Ponder is not really a comparison to Russell Wilson, but with Brian
Urlacher hurt Adrian Peterson has one less beast to worry about. The Bears’ defense has come crashing back down to earth anyway, but without their leader, can they force enough turnovers to get back to where they were?

Nathaniel: Vikings. Christian Ponder is engaged now to that one ESPN sideline reporter who’s not Erin Andrews, so…good for him, I suppose? Call me up when some NFL player gets engaged to Dick Vitale. THEN WE’LL HAVE A REAL STORY.

San Diego Chargers at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6.5)

Lucas: Chargers. Pittsburgh is starting to round back into form and that win in Baltimore certainly helps, but with Big Ben uncertain and Ike Taylor out, I think the Chargers can cover.

Nathaniel: Chargers. Whenever there’s a strong chance a third-string quarterback who was at his best handing off to Barry Sanders could play in a given game, I tend to take the points. However, as commenter Darrell at firenorvturner.com points out, “I do not no why the Chargers hired him the first he was the worst coach when he was with the Redskin.We can not wait until other the season is over fire him now.” Amen, brother. Amen.

Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-7.5)

Lucas: Buccaneers. Someone found one of my weeks of posting these picks on COAS by Googling “Andy Reid Walrus”. I can only assume this led them to the “Ermahgerd Cheezesterks” one. That
should tell you all you need to know about this Eagle team.

Nathaniel: Eagles. HOLY CRAP FIREANDYREID.COM IS COMPLETELY EMPTY. My goodness, you are really dropping the ball lately, Philly fans…

Baltimore Ravens at Washington Redskins (-0.5)

Lucas: Redskins. Washington held off the Giants on Monday night. And this RG3 kid…

Nathaniel: Redskins. Joe Flacco is actually pretty mobile for a man his size but for all the world, whenever he runs, it never seems that way. Sometimes he’s able to make Drew Bledsoe retroactively look like Darren Sproles; how statuesque is he going to appear in comparison to RGIII Sunday?

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (+3.5)

Lucas: Falcons. We have a game away from the Georgia Dome where the team with unsustainably good luck in close games visits the team with unsustainably bad luck in close games. Still taking the Falcons, I don’t think they make it close.

Nathaniel: Panthers. Nothing you can do can ever hurt me anymore, Atlanta. I’m well past the point of pain; not only have I become immune to your attacks on logic and reason and prognostication, I’ve  also gained a new resolve that can also be easily confused with spite. DON’T YOU UNDERSTAND THAT YOU’RE OVERACHIEVING BY THREE OR FOUR WINS, ATLANTA? I DEMAND YOU RETROACTIVELY GIVE THOSE WINS BACK.

New York Jets at Jacksonville Jaguars (+2.5)

Lucas: Jaguars. Um… why is Mark Sanchez starting? Someone go to the Jets’ facility and show Rex
Ryan Sanchez’s 3 picks from Sunday. Then for giggles, show him this GIF again.
And pray he doesn’t relapse and try to eat you.

Nathaniel: Jaguars. A player currently on the Jets roster will be under center as the starting quarterback on Sunday; thus, I must take the Jaguars…

Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ers (-10.5)

Lucas: Dolphins. Come on. I know Miami isn’t that great of a team, but San Francisco has had trouble
with St. Louis. This line is way too high.

Nathaniel: 49ers. The only team I really feel good about picking even when they’re giving double-digit points. No, I have no recollection of the game they played last week, why do you ask?

New Orleans Saints at New York Giants (-5.5)

Lucas: Saints. Tom Coughlin hasn’t played the “Noboby believes in us!” card yet, but what has been
played is the Franchise Name Change Game in New Orleans. Gregg Easterbrook has taken to calling New Orleans the Sinners, though I think the New Orleans Gumbo or New Orleans Jambalaya would be more fun. And probably a lot better than the New Orleans Pelicans, to which one ESPN.com user commented: “Upon hearing the news, Anthony Davis raised his single eyebrow in disbelief.”

Nathaniel: Giants. Obviously Drew Brees’s 54-game touchdown pass streak is an incredible accomplishment that we should rise up and applaud for the next time we see him. So, in his honor, let’s show one of his passes from the game in which he didn’t throw a touchdown:

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-10.5)

Lucas: Seahawks. Look at Ryan Lindley’s line from the Jets game. How Larry Fitzgerald hasn’t demanded out of Arizona is amazing. And starting John Skelton probably doesn’t help much.

Nathaniel: Cardinals. I think we’re all a little bummed out from the news that Ryan Lindley has lost the Cardinals starting quarterback job. None more so than Caleb Hanie, though. “C’mon Whisenhunt, leave him in! His career Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt is still half a yard higher than mine! I don’t want to be the worst quarterback who’s ever thrown 100 passes much longer!”

Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (-6.5)

Lucas: Packers. Green Bay has only lost 1 game at home the past 2 seasons (to a probably better San Francisco team). The last time the Lions won in Green Bay, I was 2 and my dad was probably still trying to dress me in Vikings clothes in an effort to corrupt me.

Nathaniel: Lions. Rest assured, Lucas, that the Lions will find a way to wrest defeat from the jaws of victory. Other than stomping their opponents’ genitals, it’s what they’re best at, really.

Houston Texans at New England Patriots (-4.5)

Lucas: Texans. I just think this game is going to be close. Houston’s defense is a little banged up, but the Patriots’ defense isn’t exactly like it was 10 years ago. Probably comes down to whoever has the ball last.

Nathaniel: Patriots. Good game! Hopefully Jon Gruden will carve some time out from his secret talks to become the next coach of the Saskatchewan Roughriders so he can provide some analysis for us. “This Danny Woodhead right here is a GRUDEN GRINDER. He’s fast, he’s shifty, he knows his way around a screen pass, and he didn’t take it personally when I originally thought he was a lawn gnome. I LIKE ‘IM.”

Lucas’ 2012 Record So Far: 101-91 (9-7 last week)

Nathaniel’s 2012 Record So Far: 95-97 (10-6 last week)

Game of the Week: Giants vs. Redskins plus the rest of the Week 13 Preview

After the thrilling game RGIII and Eli put on back in New Jersey in Week 7, I think we all kind of expected the Giants-Redskins rivalry to return to national prominence in short order. But this quickly? The Giants own a two-game lead over the Redskins heading into their Monday night matchup in Maryland and a win there would virtually eliminate any chance the Redskins have of winning the NFC East. But did you know that the Redskins have an exciting young player who might have something to say about that? In case you haven’t heard of him, Game of the Week will bring him to your attention shortly…

Who: New York Giants vs. Washington Redskins

Where: FedEx Field, Landover, MD

When: 7:30 P.M., Monday, December 3rd

Network: ESPN (Mike Tirico, Jon Gruden, Lisa Salters)

Key Storylines:

1. His name is Robert Lee Griffin III. And he’s really freaking good. Jimmy Johnson is probably going overboard when he states on Fox’s pregame show that RGIII is his league MVP so far this year – the two frontrunners for the award right now probably have to be Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, in some order (what year is it?) – but he’s not going overboard by much. Take a look at the Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt leaders for this season. Brady and Manning have separated themselves somewhat from the pack, but RGIII is nipping at Josh Freeman’s heels for third place in those rankings. Not bad! His interception rate of 1.3% is obviously unsustainable, but even disregarding that all of his passing stats seem to indicate he’s one of the best passers in the league right now. As a rookie. And that’s before we include his 642 rushing yards and (outside) shot at a 1,000 yard season on the ground. Do you think such a player could be considered the Offensive Rookie of the Year?
2. Alas, the Redskins pass defense. You probably assume that the Redskins are among the most efficient teams in the league on offense – and you would be correct. They rank fourth in both net yards per pass attempt and yards per carry. Defensively, they’re also above average against the run, ranking fourteenth in yards per carry allowed. The Achilles’ heel of their defense – and, by extension, their team – has been their pass defense, however, which ranks 24th in net yards per pass attempt. What’s exacerbated this issue is that the Redskins have faced more pass attempts and less rushing attempts than any other team in the league this season. And worst of all, injured star pass rusher Brian Orakpo’s terrible Geico commercials are still in circulation on game days, so the Redskins are getting all of the annoyance but none of the sacks from their top linebacker. Shouldn’t have let his pecs get Orakpoed.
3. The Giants are also participating in this game. And if Eli Manning is on, they’ll likely win because of the Redskins’ aforementioned difficulties in pass defense. What Sunday night’s thoroughly impressive blowout win over the Packers most illustrated, however, was how important safety Kenny Phillips is to Big Blue’s defense. With a healthy Phillips back at strong safety (granted, this is kind of like saying “With a healthy Mark Prior back in the starting rotation), the Giants can use their nickel defense with Antrel Rolle acting as a third linebacker against the run and slot corner against the pass and Stevie Brown focused solely on patrolling center field. It was a defense that no one really figured out in their Super Bowl run last postseason and certainly a defense that the Packers had trouble with last week. Naturally, Phillips re-injured his knee late in the game Sunday and is questionable for Monday night. Would the Giants like him to be on the field at the same time the most exciting young player in the league is lined up across from them? PERHAPS.

Steve Stone’s Said in Stone Cold Lock of the Game: “As it turned out, I had runners at second and third with no play made by anyone. I handed him back his sponge and tried to pitch my way out of it.”

Projected Final Score: Redskins 33, Giants 31

Team To Bet On If Gambling Were Legal: Redskins (+2.5)

***********************************************************************

Before we get into the rest of our Week 13 preview, let’s post a quick recap on last night’s Saints-Falcons game…

Atlanta 23, New Orleans 13

Adjusted Yards per Play: 4.79 – Atlanta, 3.12 – New Orleans

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Atlanta 19.50, New Orleans 16.49

Quick Thought: First of all, let’s congratulate Drew Brees on his 54-game passing touchdown streak; the fact that it took a five-interception day to end it probably tells you…well, I’m don’t actually know what it tells you other than he had a crap game. Now that the streak is over, however, I’m sure we’ll hear a bunch of old-timers come out of the woodwork and say that Johnny Unitas’s 47-game streak is still more impressive because he played in a much tougher era for quarterbacks. And that’s undoubtedly true. The thing is, though, while it’s unquestionably easier to gain yards through the air now, the average number of touchdowns thrown in a game hasn’t changed that much since Unitas played. When Unitas was on his streak from 1956 to 1960, the average NFL team threw for 1.1 (1956), 1.2 (1957), 1.5 (1958), 1.4 (1959), and 1.4 (1960) touchdowns per game 1.32. During Brees’s streak, the average NFL team threw for 1.4 (2009), 1.5 (2010), 1.5 (2011), and 1.5 (2012) touchdowns per game. So, on average, quarterbacks in Brees’s era could be expected to throw for .15 more touchdowns per game than quarterbacks in Unitas’s era – a decent advantage, but not an overpowering one. Ultimately, I’m not sure which streak is more impressive; I am, however, sure that both were fairly impressive. I guess.

***********************************************************************

Below are SSLYAR’s Week 13 NFL Projections, ranked by the author’s subjective interest in watching each game. Home teams are italicized; projected winners against the spread are underlined. To see which games are being shown in your area, check out the506′s TV distribution maps. Our guest analyst this week is the former emperor of the Mongol Empire, Genghis Khan.

1. Washington Redskins 33, New York Giants 31 (in-depth preview above): “It is not sufficient that I suceed – all others must fail.”
2. Baltimore Ravens 20, Pittsburgh Steelers 14: “With Heaven’s aid I have conquered for you a huge empire. But my life was too short to achieve the conquest of the world. That task is left for you.”
3. Green Bay Packers 26, Minnesota Vikings 21: “I am the punishment of God…If you had not committed great sins, God would not have sent a punishment like me upon you.”
4. Denver Broncos 28, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20: “The greatest happiness is to scatter your enemy, to drive him before you, to see his cities reduced to ashes, to see those who love him shrouded in tears, and to gather into your bosom his wives and daughters.”
5. Seattle Seahawks 17, Chicago Bears 16: “If my body dies, let my body die, but do not let my country die.”
6. Detroit Lions 35, Indianapolis Colts 24: “The Root of Wild Madder.”
7. San Francisco 49ers 24, St. Louis Rams 19: “If unable to abstain from drinking, a man may get drunk three times a month; if he does it more than three times he is culpable; if he gets drunk twice a month it is better; if once a month, this is still more laudable; and if one does not drink at all what can be better? But where can I find such a man? If such a man were found he would be worthy of the highest esteem.”
8. New England Patriots 24, Miami Dolphins 20: “Perhaps my children will live in stone houses and walled towns – Not I.”
9. Cincinnati Bengals 23, San Diego Chargers 21: ““Those who were adept and brave fellows I have made military commanders. Those who were quick and nimble I have made herders of horses. Those who were not adept I have given a small whip and sent to be shepherds.”
10. Dallas Cowboys 28, Philadelphia Eagles 20: ““Heaven grew weary of the excessive pride and luxury of China… I am from the Barbaric North. I wear the same clothing and eat the same food as the cowherds and horse-herders. We make the same sacrifices and we share.. our riches. I look upon the nation as a new-born child and I care for my soldiers as though they were my brothers.”
11. Houston Texans 27, Tennessee Titans 24: ““As my calling is high, the obligations incumbent upon me are also heavy; and I fear that in my ruling there may be something wanting.”
12. Buffalo Bills 28, Jacksonville Jaguars 23: “One arrow alone can be easily broken but many arrows are indestructible.”
13. New York Jets 14, Arizona Cardinals 10: “Be of one mind and one faith, that you may conquer your enemies and lead long and happy lives.”
14. Carolina Panthers 26, Kansas City Chiefs 17: ““Say ye unto the Khwarezmians that I am the sovereign of the sunrise, and [he is] the sovereign of the sunset. Let there be between us a firm treaty of friendship, amity, and peace, and let traders and caravans on both sides come and go.”
15. Oakland Raiders 21, Cleveland Browns 20: “Despite all expectations, the time of my last campaign and of my passing is near. I wish to die at home. Let not my end disarm you, and on no account weep for me, lest the enemy be warned of my death.”

2012 Record Thus Far: 113-63-1 (10-6 last week)

2012 Record Against the Spread Thus Far: 85-92 (8-8 last week)

COAS / SSLYAR Pigskin Pick ‘Em: Week 13

The Confessions of a Sportscaster / Someone Still Loves You Alberto Riveron blog coalition is proud to announce their joint Week 13 picks; you can find those over at COAS. We’re getting psyched up for the home stretch of the season with pleas for a new NFL Network series entitled The Greatest Ties of All Time, public service announcements from Matt Schaub that may or may not regard injured genitalia, and, of course, a Mark Sanchez butt-fumble GIF. I made up a little ground on Lucas last week, but his lead is still seven games with five weeks to go. To make matters worse, we’re only disagreeing on five games this week. WHERE WILL MY LATE SURGE COME FROM? And to answer your question, Lucas, it’s always fair to blame Britton Colquitt. For anything. I’ll go sob in the corner now.

Lucas’ 2012 Record Thus Far: 92-84 (7-9 last week)

Nathaniel’s 2012 Record Thus Far: 85-91 (8-8 last week)

Game of the Week: Packers vs. Giants plus the rest of the Week 12 Preview

You’re probably aware that this Sunday night’s matchup between the Packers and Giants pits the last two Super Bowl champions against each other. What you may not remember is each team has also been directly responsible for the other’s postseason ouster the last two years. The Packers throttled the Giants in a key Week 16 matchup in 2010 that gave them the tiebreaker for the final wild-card slot over Big Blue. Then, of course, the Giants avenged both that loss and a 2011 regular season loss in a lopsided win over the Packers in last year’s divisional playoffs. All of this to say…THERE’S NO LOVE LOST BETWEEN THESE TWO TEAMS. Is that a good enough cliche to go out on? All right, let’s get into Game of the Week…

Who: Green Bay Packers vs. New York Giants

Where: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ

When: 7:30 P.M., Sunday, November 25th

Network: NBC (Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth, Michele Tafoya)

Key Storylines:

1. Why do the Giants always fade in the second half? Football Outsiders and Grantland’s Bill Barnwell have noted in the past that the Giants’ second-half struggles are usually due to a combination of a brutal schedule and a pass defense that tends to run out of gas late in the season. Currently, however, the biggest reason for the Giant’s two-game losing streak is the play of Eli Manning, who has gone from serious MVP contender to slightly above-average quarterback over the course of three games. To be fair, his receivers haven’t given him too much help; Victor Cruz’s production has fallen back down to league-average efficiency and it’s fair to wonder how healthy Hakeem Nicks has been all season, given the drop from his normal level of play. But if you even saw just a few highlights from the Giants’ games against the Steelers or Bengals, you know that the little Manning brother has brought a lot of these struggles upon himself, making late throws into traffic and making remarkably careless decisions under pressure. The Giants need Eli to snap out of his funk immediately in order to hang on to the NFC East title that looked to be theirs a month ago.
2. Are the Packers peaking at the right time again? Actually, based on the way they played in back-to-back games against Houston and St. Louis earlier this year, you could make a strong argument that they can play quite a bit better themselves than what they’ve shown over their past three games. Which, considering they went 3-0 in that stretch, is something of a terrifying thought. Take Aaron Rodgers, for example. Currently, he actually has a below average Net Yards per Attempt figure of 6.31 (league average is 6.35); if he finished the season at that rate, it would be the worst NY/A figure of his career. Now a large reason for that is the brutal slate of defenses the Packers have faced so far this year. And Rodgers’ TD-to-INT ratio of 27-6 is in line with the A-Rod we all know and fear, so ultimately his Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt figure ranks him seventh overall in the NFL. Still, there’s obvious room for improvement for the Packers’ passing game in the last six games of the season.
3. What’s the likelihood the loser of this game gets knocked out of the playoffs because of it? Not particularly high, if we’re being honest. The NFC East is almost certainly only going to send one team to the playoffs, so that would make any wild-card tiebreakers between these two teams a moot point. Make no mistake, however, this is a vitally important game for both teams in their respective divisional races. The Giants’ biggest concern may no longer be the wildly inconsistent Cowboys, but the suddenly high-flying Redskins who have a Monday night date with New York next week. A Giants’ loss to the Packers would leave the door open for the Redskins to tie the division lead in that game. The Packers, meanwhile, have fought back into a tie with the Bears for first place in the NFC North and still have two games left against the Vikings, who are only one game back of them. Whoever loses this game will still be in solid position to make the playoffs, but they will have also left the door open for divisional foes to overtake them.

Steve Stone’s Said in Stone Cold Lock of the Game: “Larry Andersen pitched for at least parts of 17 seasons, and he threw 98 percent sliders.”

Projected Final Score: Giants 28, Packers 27

Team To Bet On If Gambling Were Legal: Packers (+2.5)

***********************************************************************

Before we get into the rest of our Week 12 preview, let’s post some quick recaps on yesterday’s Thanksgiving games…

Houston 34, Detroit 31 (OT)

Adjusted Yards per Play: 6.87 – Houston, 6.38 – Detroit

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Houston 38.28, Detroit 39.65

Quick Thought: Allow me to be the 400th person you’ve heard in the past 24 hours say that the no-replay-on-an-illegal-challenge rule is the dumbest piece of crap I’ve ever encountered in the past three days. Why is Walt Coleman ALWAYS at the center of these things? He’s surpassed Jerome Boger as my most disliked referee in the league. At least Jerome is just incompetent and doesn’t have any idea what he’s doing. There’s an aura of malevolence with Walt – you can’t often hear it through his thick Southern drawl, but it’s definitely there and it’s definitely undermining the integrity of the NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE (I’m hoping if I write that in caps enough, ESPN will make me one of their NFL analysts).

Washington 38, Dallas 31

Adjusted Yards per Play: 7.94 – Washington, 5.04 – Dallas

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Washington 35.16, Dallas 27.00

Quick Thought: DON’T DO ‘EM LIKE THAT, RGIII!!! That was so reminiscent of Randy Moss’s three-catch, three-touchdown Thanksgiving performance during his rookie season in 1998 in which even Pat Summerall was speaking in hyperbolic tones by the end of it. What made both Randy and RGIII’s performances so special was the added sense that this was just the tip of the iceberg for these guys; we could conceivably see those guys play at that level for 15 years. Now if RGIII ever fake-moons the Lambeau crowd while Joe Buck is in the booth, then the analogy will be complete.

New England 49, NY Jets 19

Adjusted Yards per Play: 7.84 – New England, 3.73 – NY Jets

AY/P Projected Point Totals: New England 37.52, NY Jets 17.85

Quick Thought: I haven’t laughed so hard at a single play this season as I did at Mark Sanchez’s HERP-A-DERP fumble into the backside of his own offensive lineman (with some nice push thrown in by Vince Wilfork, of course). There’s comedy, there’s high comedy, there’s transcendent comedy, and then there’s Mark Sanchez running into his own offensive lineman, falling on his backside and losing the ball for a fumble return touchdown. WHAT DOES HE HAVE TO DO GET PULLED AT THIS POINT? He’s begging to taken out back ‘Ol-Yeller-style, Rex!

***********************************************************************

Below are SSLYAR’s Week 12 NFL Projections, ranked by the author’s subjective interest in watching each game. Home teams are italicized; projected winners against the spread are underlined. To see which games are being shown in your area, check out the506′s TV distribution maps. Our guest analyst this week is fifteen-year NBA veteran Rasheed Wallace.

1. New York Giants 28, Green Bay Packers 27 (in-depth preview above): “We don’t see ourselves as four All-Stars. We see ourselves as one unit. It’s like five fingers on a hand. You can do more damage together as a fist than spread out flat.”
2. Chicago Bears 14, Minnesota Vikings 12: “Keep us on the back-burner. We won’t lose our swagger at all, because when you put that food on the back-burner, it’s just simmering and it tastes better. When you got that food on the front burner, that’s the one you’re paying attention to the most, and that’s the one that might burn. We’re on that back-burner.”
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31, Atlanta Falcons 27: “Go for it, Darko!”
4. San Francisco 49ers 31, New Orleans Saints 24: “That’s our main food that feeds this team.”
5. Baltimore Ravens 20, San Diego Chargers 16: “I’m not going to start the game by cracking a cat in the skull if I don’t get elbowed first.”
6. Buffalo Bills 28, Indianapolis Colts 27: “I guess that was his wannabe retaliation. I started laughing and got a (technical foul) for that.”
7. Seattle Seahawks 17, Miami Dolphins 10: “That’s when guys get to trash-talk. And it’s pretty much stroll down Memory Lane. You know, when cats say, ‘Oh, back when I was playing, when we went to the tournament and this and that.’ It’s just a stroll down Memory Lane more than anything.”
8. Cleveland Browns 13, Pittsburgh Steelers 10: “I don’t care about that number 16. Y’all should know that coming from me. It ain’t going to change nothing about us and what we doing. Y’all should know that.”
9. St. Louis Rams 17, Arizona Cardinals 16: “I just pick them game-by-game, not that bracket thing. It’s more profitable that way.”
10. Tennessee Titans 23, Jacksonville Jaguars 21: “It wasn’t no statement. It was just another game. Statements aren’t to be made until playoff time.”
11. Cincinnati Bengals 30, Oakland Raiders 24: “Don’t tread on D.”
12. Carolina Panthers 24, Philadelphia Eagles 16: “I can’t speak for other teams, but for us, we’re definitely trying to voice our objection. I don’t have a problem with that dress code if a man is injured and has to be on the bench during games. But it’s kind of crazy to sit up there and try to tell us how to dress on the way to work. We’re not in that head office in New York. To me, that’s crazy.”
13. Denver Broncos 27, Kansas City Chiefs 14: “Ball don’t lie.”

2012 Record Thus Far: 103-59-1 (11-3 last week)

2012 Record against the Spread Thus Far: 79-84 (8-6 last week)

Game of the Week: Texans vs. Bears plus the rest of the 2012 NFL Week 10 Preview

It’s a storied rivalry unlike any other in the NFL. For an incredible THIRD time ever, the Texans and Bears will renew their heated battles and hope to evoke the play of the greats who played in the two previous meetings: David Carr. Chad Hutchinson. Steve Slaton. Adrian Peterson (the other one). Kris Brown. Paul Edinger. How can anyone on these dual 7-1 teams POSSIBLY hope to live up to the standard those men set before them? It’s a tall task, but one that Game of the Week is heckbent on profiling…

Who: Houston Texans vs. Chicago Bears.

Where: Soldier Field, Chicago, IL

When: 7:30 P.M., Sunday, November 11th

Network: NBC (Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth, Michele Tafoya)

Key Storylines:

1. Who takes the lead in the Defensive Player of the Year race? Second-year Texans Defensive End J.J. Watt got off to a huge lead in this category early in the season and probably still deserves to be the front-runner. He leads the league in sacks (13) and quarterback hits (21), is tied for the league lead in tackles for a loss (17),  and is listed with having defended 10 passes – just an absurd number for a defensive lineman. No defensive player has had a bigger impact on games this year. However, if Bears cornerback Charles Tillman shuts down Texans receiver Andre Johnson the same way he shut down Calvin Johnson in another nationally televised game last month, then the race could be up for grabs. Tillman has forced seven fumbles this season, which is a figure equal in its absurdity to Watt’s passes defensed. He’s also returned two interceptions for touchdowns and, along with Tim Jennings, formed one-half of what has unquestionably been the best cornerback duo in the league so far this season. Long story short: watch the defenses Sunday night. You’ll be impressed.
2. Can the Texans come up with big plays offensively? Clearly, the Texans have been better offensively this year than the Bears, but they haven’t performed quite up to the level they set from 2009-2011 when they were one of the five best offenses in the league (when Matt Schaub was healthy, anyway). Their run-blocking is no longer an overwhelming strength and they’ve largely relied on deception and misdirection to generate big plays in the passing game. That worked against the Bills last week to the tune of a throwback bootleg touchdown from Schaub to tight end Owen Daniels, but its efficacy may wane considerably against an extremely disciplined Bears defense. Schaub is extremely accurate in short-to-intermediate range passing, so the Texans should have some success moving the ball on Chicago, but to come up with touchdowns they’ll likely have to come up with a long gain of some sort.
3. Will the Bears play well enough offensively in the first half to stay in the game? Jay Cutler and the Bears passing game has been horrendous in the first quarters of games this season. Vince Verhei of Football Outsiders noted after the Bears’ shaky win against Carolina that Cutler has performed roughly 400 yards below replacement level in the first quarters of games this season. In other words: that’s pretty bad. However, Cutler has been one of the best in the league in the fourth quarter, rating fourth overall in the league. The reasons for this are varied – the Bears’ troubled offensive line has performed much better in the second half this year, offensive coordinator Mike Tice has usually called simplified concepts and quicker drops for Cutler later in games, etc. – but to beat the Texans Sunday night, the Bears will need to bottle a little of what has made their offense successful late in games and spring that out to begin the game. Because another terrible start could likely be the springboard for a loss against the best team in the AFC.

Steve Stone’s Said in Stone Cold Lock of the Game: “One of the things I truly believe is that the game of baseball is won 90 feet at a time.”

Projected Final Score: Bears 17, Texans 15

Team To Bet On If Gambling Were Legal: Bears (-1.5)

***********************************************************************

Before we get into the rest of our Week 10 preview, let’s post a quick recap on last night’s Colts-Jaguarss game…

Indianapolis 27, Jacksonville 10

Adjusted Yards per Play: 4.68 – Indianapolis, 3.44 – Jacksonville

AY/P Projected Point Totals: Indianapolis 21.73, Jacksonville 15.48

Quick Thought: Remind me never to go against #Chuckstrong again. Or, at the very least, never go against #Chuckstrong when Blaine Gabbert is involved. I still maintain Indianapolis isn’t very good – their defense still has a myriad of holes, their running game remains a problem, and they’ve basically made the most of facing poor teams. However, Andrew Luck HAS played very efficiently the past two weeks; even though I wouldn’t like the Colts’ chances of going on the road in the playoffs, the prospect of Luck playing at this level he’s shown lately wouldn’t necessarily make such an event a suicide mission. Unless they were playing Denver or New England in the first round. Then it would definitely still be a suicide mission.

***********************************************************************

Below are SSLYAR’s Week 10 NFL Projections, ranked by the author’s subjective interest in watching each game. Home teams are italicized; projected winners against the spread are underlined. To see which games are being shown in your area, check out the506′s TV distribution maps. Our guest analyst this week is a collection of sayings often found in fortune cookies. 

1. Chicago Bears 17, Houston Texans 15 (in-depth preview above): “A good beginning is only half done.”
2. Detroit Lions 24, Minnesota Vikings 23: “A friend asks only for your time not your money.”
3. New Orleans Saints 28, Atlanta Falcons 27: “A diamond is a hunk of coal that stuck with the job.”
4. New York Giants 30, Cincinnati Bengals 27: “A good example is the best sermon.”
5. Denver Broncos 27, Carolina Panthers 26: “A journey of 1000 miles begins with one step.”
6. Dallas Cowboys 23, Philadelphia Eagles 20: “A girl who is free for the evening can be one of the most expensive things in the world.”
7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27, San Diego Chargers 17: “A book is in your future.”
8. San Francisco 49ers 28, St. Louis Rams 17: “A clean conscience is a soft pillow.”
9. New England Patriots 31, Buffalo Bills 23: “A good time to start something new.”
10. Seattle Seahawks 20, New York Jets 12: “A new challenge is near.”
11. Baltimore Ravens 28, Oakland Raiders 21: “A friend will soon bring you a gift.”
12. Miami Dolphins 20, Tennessee Titans 17: “The wit of a graduate student is like champagne.”
13. Pittsburgh Steelers 24, Kansas City Chiefs 10: “A bashful admirer will soon be reveled.”

2012 Record Thus Far: 83-50 (8-6 last week)

2012 Record Against the Spread Thus Far: 60-73 (9-5 last week)