2012 Team Previews: Seattle Seahawks

Seattle Seahawks

• 2011 Record: 7-9 (3rd in NFC West)
• 2011 Point Differential: +6 (18th out of 32)
• 2011 Strength of Schedule (per PFR’s SRS system): +0.4 (t-10th)
• 2011 Adjusted Net Yards per Pass Attempt (offense): 5.0 (21st)
• 2011 Adjusted Net Yards per Pass Attempt (defense): 5.0 (6th)
• 2011 Adjusted Pythagorean Record (accounting for Strength of Schedule): 8.4-7.6 (t-15th)
• 2010 Adjusted Pythagorean Record: 4.3-11.7 (30th)

And now a frank discussion of the worst uniforms in recent NFL history

In case you didn’t know, the NFL switched apparel suppliers at the end of last season, ending their long-time partnership with Reebok in favor of Nike’s deeper pockets. Given Nike’s, shall we say, adventurous college designs, many NFL fans were hopeful/worried (depending on their attitude towards those college uniforms) that the switch in apparel companies would lead to radical uniform redesigns like these. Of course, there was never a real chance of that happening; NFL owners are some of the most conservative people around this side of Barry Goldwater and the thought of seeing a tradition-rich franchise like the Bears parading around in something resembling this would have likely caused them to choke on their caviar. Thus, when the new Nike uniforms were unveiled earlier this year, the vast majority of NFL teams made no significant changes and most uniforms look exactly the same as before.

The Seahawks, however, were the one team that took the opportunity to make major redesigns, as you can see from the picture above. And the results aren’t pretty, unless you like rejected Arena League uniforms. There’s too much going on in the top of the jersey and the new gray alternate jersey look exactly like the road whites have been dragged through a smokestack. Even the names of the Seahawks’ new color scheme sound pretentious: College Navy. Action Green. Wolf Grey. And…White (reportedly Aryan White was the original title but was shelved at the last minute). Bleh. In honor of these new affronts to manhood, let’s take a look back at some of the other terrible NFL uniforms of recent vintage.

Philadelphia Eagles 1932 Throwback Uniforms (2007). The worst part about this is the Eagles were wearing these in honor of the Frankfort Yellow Jackets. Why would you wear the garish monstrosity of another franchise you were never even affiliated with? Might as well wear the Providence Steam Roller throwbacks at that point.

Denver Broncos 1960 Throwback Uniforms (2009). OH MY WORD I FORGOT ABOUT THOSE SOCKS. Honestly, if you replaced those with something relatively normal, then this mustard-and-poop color scheme isn’t actually that bad…*thinks for a minute*…okay, you’re right, it would still be pretty bad.

Chicago Bears Alternate Orange Uniforms (2005-2011). What’s bad about these is the standard Bears home jersey is arguably the best in the league; trading those in for Orange-Crush Broncos-aping unis is a huge loss. Fortunately, the 1940s retro uniforms the Bears wore in 2010 are returning this season.

Detroit Lions Alternate Black Uniforms (2005-2008). There should just be a rule outlawing teams that originated before World War II from wearing alternate jerseys with dominant colors that have NO prior history with the team. Why did you feel like you needed to rip off the Panthers’ jerseys, Detroit? Why?

Jacksonville Jaguars Home and Away Uniforms (2009-present). Much like the Seahawks, the Jaguars’ recent redesign seems rather cheaply made and dilutes a previously strong design. I’d also like to take this time to once again ask Shad Khan WHY HAVEN’T YOU MOVED THE JAGUARS TO LOS ANGELES YET?

New York Jets 1960 Throwback Uniforms (2007-present). Why not celebrate the most putrid time of your franchise’s existence by wearing their equally putrid uniforms? F-E-E-T! FEET! FEET! FEET!

Seattle Seahawks Alternate Lime Green Uniforms (2009). And, of course, no discussion of terrible NFL uniforms is complete without mentioning the one-game abomination that these Seahawks alternates graced us with a few years back. Really, they should be proud more than anything else; any time you can unequivocally say that something is clearly the best or worst in its given field, you should feel honored to be part of that. Plus, who knows how many people were inspired to purchase Apple Jolly Ranchers after watching that game; as I hope you all know, Jolly Ranchers are delicious and anything leading to the purchase of more Jolly Ranchers is a net gain in my book. So, nuclear holocaust green Seahawks jerseys, I salute you for a job well done. Keep fighting the good fight!

Random thoughts

Probably the biggest surprise starter in the NFL opening day will be Russell Wilson, who outperformed Matt Flynn in the preseason and will be one of several rookie quarterbacks under center from the get-go. Wilson was incredibly efficient in his lone season at Wisconsin (having transferred there from North Carolina State), completing 72.8% of his passes and tossing 33 touchdown passes in comparison to just 4 interceptions. In addition, Football Outsiders’ Lewin Career Forecast system gave Wilson its highest rated projection ever (although FO head Aaron Schatz couldn’t backpedal from that projection hard enough) and he’s got excellent mobility and accuracy. The only knock on him has been his height (5-11); then again, Drew Brees and Michael Vick are only an inch taller and they’ve both had a pretty good run. Subjectively, I think Wilson will make it as a solid starting quarterback eventually; the usual warning signs with starting rookie quarterbacks apply for this season, however…Flynn was expected to win the Seahawks’ starting quarterback job easily after parlaying his amazing Week 17 start with the Packers into a big payday in the offseason. As Football Outsiders’ Vince Verhei and Grantland’s Bill Barnwell both noted, every other quarterback in NFL history who posted a single game stat line similar to Flynn’s 31-of-44, 480 yards, 6 TDs and 1 INT made the Pro Bowl at some point in their career (except for Scott Mitchell and even he had one phenomenal season in 1995). Flynn starts this year on the bench, but it’s fair to expect that he will get some playing time at some point this year…The Seahawks’ defense took a big step forward in 2011, largely thanks to their Pro Bowl safeties Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor. Thomas is 23 and Chancellor is the old guy at 24, so this may be the beginning of a long period of excellence at the position for the Seahawks…

Outlook

The Seahawks won the NFC West in 2010 and then went on to memorably beat the Saints in the playoffs, but by all indicators they were a much better team last season. Their defense became an above-average unit, with young playmakers all over the field and their offense did about as well as you could hope with Tarvaris Jackson at quarterback. How well you think the Seahawks will do in 2012 is largely tied to how much you think the Plexiglass Principle will affect their season. If their defense slides back down to something approaching their terrible 2010 effort, this will be a four-win team. If you think that last year represented young talent coalescing for the first time and things can only improve as that young talent gets closer to its peak, then the Seahawks may deserve to be the NFC West favorite. Questions will always linger around a team starting a rookie quarterback, so the Seahawks’ overall projection this year puts them around the seven-win mark they’ve maintained the first two years of Pete Carroll’s tenure. Again, though, in a division that looks very weak, Seattle has as good a chance as anyone of making the playoffs.

2012 Projected Point Differential: 322.4-354.7

2012 Average Projection: 7.1-8.9 (2nd in NFC West)

2012 Team Previews: San Francisco 49ers

 

San Francisco 49ers

• 2011 Record: 13-3 (1st in NFC West, lost NFC Championship Game to NY Giants)
• 2011 Point Differential: +151 (4th out of 32)
• 2011 Strength of Schedule (per PFR’s SRS system): -1.1 (27th)
• 2011 Adjusted Net Yards per Pass Attempt (offense): 6.2 (12th)
• 2011 Adjusted Net Yards per Pass Attempt (defense): 4.9 (t-4th)
• 2011 Adjusted Pythagorean Record (accounting for Strength of Schedule): 11.7-4.3 (t-1st)
• 2010 Adjusted Pythagorean Record: 5.4-10.6 (27th)

And now a very special preview of the 2012 49ers from Super Bowl-winning coach and current ESPN announcer Jon Gruden. Take it away, Coach Gruden!

I’ve been around the game a lotta years and I can’t remember a team making such a MOMENTOUS TURNAROUND in just one season like THESE SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS DID last year. And I tell ya…*raises right hand, squints*…it WARMED THE COCKLES OF MY HEART to see them do so. I see Pat Willis out there, flying around, puttin’ a hat on a hat, getting his defense in the right position – he reminds me a lot of a guy you may heard of named RAY LEWIS. *chuckles* I tell ‘ya, if I had eleven Patrick Willises on my defense, I wouldn’t need an offense – but I’d still have one because I love the six-yard slant TOO MUCH. I also see MY GUY Justin Smith out there bull rushing the snot out of these poor saps they’ve got out there at offensive tackle these days. Now I didn’t run any SCIENTIFIC STUDIES  or anything on this, but by my count I’ve got Justin Smith blowing up approximately EIGHT HUNDRED AND THIRTEEN PLAYS IN THE BACKFIELD last year. You think you might like a guy like that on your ballclub? *chuckles* And, finally, ALEX SMITH – how about THIS GUY? Here’s a guy who’s going out there, SILENCING THE CRITICS, playing smart, mistake-free football and showing everyone that, hey…*raises right hand even further, squints even more*…THIS GUY can be a star quarterback in the NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE. 

And it’s all thanks to the PERSPICACIOUS TUTELAGE of MR. JIM HARBAUGH, a DESERVING RECIPIENT of last year’s NFL Coach of the Year award. What Jim was able to accomplish last year in such a CONSTRICTED PERIOD OF TIME illustrates ONCE AGAIN just how important the coaching profession truly is. Now I’m not one to slag off Mike Singletary, the OUTSTANDING former coach of these 49ers. Mike is a TRULY INSPIRING INDIVIDUAL and I greatly enjoy the luncheons he serves at his motivational seminars. But Jimmy Harbaugh reminded us of one of the GREAT TRUTHS of football: if you install some simple concepts that are easy to understand, drill your team on those concepts until their PROFICIENCY CAUSES THE OPPOSING TEAM TO VACATE THEIR BOWELS,  and are willing to think outside the box…*smirks at imaginary Mike Tirico*…you’re gonna have some success. I tell ya, what Jimmy did last year reminds me a lot of my first year across that bay they’ve got there in central California with the OAKLAND RAIDERS. I was a PRECOCIOUS YOUNG MASTERMIND looking to make my mark on a team of UNRULY RUFFIANS who could only run roughly SEVENTEEN DIFFERENT PERMUTATIONS of the six-yard slant play. *rolls eyes, chuckles exasperatedly* Needless to say, I had my WORK CUT OUT FOR ME. So, to let these clowns know that there was A NEW SHERIFF IN TOWN (and to also live out a childhood fantasy), I had a picture of myself portraying an Old West law enforcement officer printed up all over our training camp facility in Napa, California. Here, I even dug it up out of the old GRUDEN FAMILY ARCHIVES for you all to enjoy:

*smirks* Well, well, well, who’s that handsome devil? *chuckles heartily* I tell ya, Hollywood, if any of you filmmakers out there need someone to portray a sense of AUTHORITARIAN EROTICISM in one of your movies… you know who to call. Needless to say, my Raiders RESPONDED POSITIVELY to that image to the tune of EIGHT WINS in 1998 (it would have been more, but I had to start Donald Hollas at quarterback for six games). More importantly, it set forth the foundation for the period of SUSTAINED SUCCESS we would enjoy the next three years before I jumped ship and escaped Al Davis’ SKELETAL CLUTCHES. Being the TRAILBLAZING VISIONARY that I am, I can only assume Jimmy Harbaugh took the very same photos before his first training camp. AND LOOK AT THE RESULTS. *smirks, gets satisfied look* Never underestimate the POWER OF UNCONTROLLABLE GENIUS.

Finally, to wrap up my thoughts here on these San Francisco 49ers here: I saw a lot of people get upset with Jimmy Harbaugh for his, shall we say, ENTHUSIASTIC HANDSHAKE with the OUTSTANDING coach of the DETROIT LIONS, Jimmy Schwartz. Now I understand Jimmy Schwartz TOOK EXCEPTION to the VIGORISITY of Jimmy Harbaugh’s fervor. But this is football we’re talking about here. There’s no room for hurt feelings here. If you want to go home crying to your mommy WITH YOUR MASCARA ALL RUNNY and your estrogen levels RUNNING AMOK, choose a different sport, pal. I remember the first game I ever coached against Bobby Petrino, the one year he was coaching the Falcons. As I recall, we won the game 31-7. And as Bobby and I headed onto the field for the post-game handshake, I could see him trying to avoid eye contact – like he was ashamed of how his team had played. Well, sensing an opportunity to haze the newest member of the coaching profession, I took Bobby’s hand and said – I’m paraphrasing here because the exact language is probably not suitable for a MASS AUDIENCE – “You should probably consider visiting a proctologist, Bobby, because the fudgies I see all over your face leads me to believe your keester’s probably not in the best of shape.” Do I even need to tell you that he went crying back to the college game three weeks later? *chuckles, gets smug look* I tell ya, if you can’t go out there on that field with a CAN’T-LOSE attitude, then why even play the game? I see that attitude in Jimmy Harbaugh and THESE SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS and that’s why they’re MY PICK…*raises right hand and eyebrow*…to go all the way and win the Super Bowl. GREAT COACHES…*grins devilishly*…never get denied. *sighs, resumes cleaning bird poop off his Corvette*…

Random thoughts

The main reason San Francisco shocked the world and went 13-3 last year? Turnover differential. The 49ers’ +28 differential last year tied for the fourth best mark of all time and that turnover luck carried over into their Divisional Round game against New Orleans, the +4 advantage proving to be the difference in a very close game. Unfortunately, regression towards the mean is likely going to set in. Here’s the list of all teams in NFL history who had a +25 or greater turnover margin in a single season (ignore the 1946 Browns, who were playing in the first AAFC season). On average, these teams give back 17.6 turnovers the following season. Further, the only teams that didn’t suffer a double digit drop in turnover differential were the ’41 and ’43 Packers and ’58 Colts – teams that played in an environment where turnovers occurred roughly twice as often as they do today. In short, it’s probably fair to assume the 49ers’ 2012 turnover differential will decrease by at least 20 turnovers…Related to the above comment: Alex Smith was lauded for resurrecting his career in 2011, but his Net Yards per Attempt figure was only good enough for a tie for 21st. His success was tied to a completely unsustainable interception rate of 1.1%; his career interception rate of 3.0% is usually the NFL average. Expect his interception rate to fall much more in line with the latter figure…The 49ers signed Super Bowl hero Mario Manningham and Randy Moss in the offseason to fill out their thin receiving corps. Both will provide upgrades, but neither figures to be a miracle worker. The Giants let Manningham go because he drops far too many passes to be a #1 or #2 receiver and when we last saw Moss, he wasn’t good enough to crack the Titans’ receiving rotation in 2010, which is an insult that doesn’t really require further comment…

Outlook

Bill Simmons created the term “grenade” (apparently a Jersey Shore reference that I am so, so happy I don’t understand) for any #1 or #2 seed from a given season that dropped at least three wins and missed the playoffs entirely the following season. Every season from 2003 (the 4-12 Raiders) through 2011 (the 8-8 Bears) has had at least one grenade and in 2012, the 49ers seem to fit the grenade profile perfectly. To beat a dead horse further: their success last season was completely built around unsustainably favorable turnover differential and unsustainably excellent special teams. Move the turnover margin around to about average and downgrade the special teams from great to merely good and you see a team with a good but not great defense and an offense that is wholly dependent on receiving great field position from the other phases of the team. “Regression to the mean” was a term created with the 2012 49ers in mind. With that said, the rest of the NFC West remains wholly unremarkable. So if Jim Harbaugh can stave off some of his team’s expected downfall (and by all appearances he ‘s a good enough coach to do so), the 49ers could drop three or four games from last year and still repeat as NFC West champions. Our projection is a little more pessimistic, however.

2012 Projected Point Differential: 296.6-333.4

2012 Average Projection: 6.9-9.1 (3rd in NFC West)

2012 Team Previews: St. Louis Rams

St. Louis Rams (previously known as the Los Angeles Rams and Cleveland Rams

• 2011 Record: 2-14 (4th in NFC West)
• 2011 Point Differential: -214 (32nd out of 32)
• 2011 Strength of Schedule (per PFR’s SRS system): +2.9 (1st)
• 2011 Adjusted Net Yards per Pass Attempt (offense): 4.3 (31st)
• 2011 Adjusted Net Yards per Pass Attempt (defense): 6.1 (21st)
• 2011 Adjusted Pythagorean Record (accounting for Strength of Schedule): 3.3-12.7 (32nd)
• 2010 Adjusted Pythagorean Record: 4.8-11.2 (28th)

And now an attempt at restoring the NFL’s natural order

Drew Magary is in the midst of writing some wildly entertaining previews for Deadspin entitled “Why Your Team Sucks,” in which Magary takes the time to explain, fittingly enough, why each NFL team sucks. It’s exceedingly amusing stuff and the fan letters included with each preview are fascinating views into a collective fanbase’s psyche (someone give Cleveland a hug RIGHT NOW). Something Magary wrote in his Ravens preview, though, got the ‘ol wheels turning in the grayish blob I call my brain. Magary writes, “The Ravens are a nothing franchise. They’re the Team That Shouldn’t Be… In a perfect NFL world, the Colts are still in Baltimore, the Browns are still the Browns, and Indianapolis remains a raging tire fire in the center of flyover country.”

This “perfect NFL world” that Magary speaks of intrigues me. What if Robert Irsay wasn’t a conniving, backstabbing weasel who moved the Colts to Indianapolis in the middle of the night? What if Art Modell didn’t enter secret negotiations with Baltimore to move the Browns there a decade later? How many Johnny Unitas comparisons would have involved Baltimore Colts quarterback Peyton Manning? Would you have enjoyed having Ray Lewis play middle linebacker for fifteen years and actually winning a real, honest-to-God championship in 2000, Cleveland? I’m sorry, that last hypothetical was mean. Still, the point remains: what happens to the past thirty years of NFL history if you get rid of all the black-hearted greed from the owners?

Here’s what happens. The Raiders never make that move to Los Angeles because Al Davis realizes deep down in his heart of hearts that no NFL team’s persona matched its hometown’s persona like the Raiders. The Colts never move to Indianapolis because Carroll Rosenbloom never conducts a Yankee Swap with Rams owner Irsay in 1972 and remains the Colts owner until his death. The Browns never move to Baltimore: partly because it would be really weird for the 26th-largest market in the country to have two NFL teams, but moreso because Modell realizes that building a new stadium at the same time as the Indians and Cavaliers might actually be an opportunity to take advantage of voter goodwill. The Oilers never move to Tennessee because Bud Adams decides to be a little more patient and realizes he can get a new stadium in about five years. The Cardinals never move to Arizona because Bill Bidwell realizes how crazy the words “Arizona” and “Cardinals” sound together. And the Rams never move to St. Louis because even Robert Irsay knows that moving from the second largest market in the country to the 21st is batexcrement insane.

See how many NFL wrongs I just righted in one simple paragraph? Just another reminder that all the world’s problems, no matter how big or small, can be solved by writing a blog. Now on to the matter of expansion teams. Two of the four expansion teams of the last twenty years were taken by cities that had lost previous tenants (Cleveland and Houston); who gets the expansion teams in this fictional universe where the Browns and Oilers never move? Phoenix is an obvious choice because of its booming population, so let’s stick a team there and call them the Octogenarians. And Nashville is a good fit for an otherwise non-represented Southeast region, so the Tennessee Titans will still be allowed to exist. As for the original two expansion teams of 1995, we’ll let the Panthers stay in Charlotte, but let’s take this hypothetical opportunity to pretend that the Jacksonville Jaguars never existed. I’m sorry, all four Jaguars fans out there. I guess you’ll just have to go back to watching University of Florida football instead. I hope you’ll survive. So who gets that last franchise? I flirted with the idea of San Antonio and Portland, but ultimately the charm and allure of Indianapolis couldn’t keep me away. Besides, if Indianapolis isn’t an NFL city, last year’s BEST. SUPER BOWL WEEK. EVER. (that only occurred because of freak 50 degree temperatures in the middle of winter) never happens and writers like Peter King don’t have the luxury of being able to walk to all the Super-Bowl related venues in downtown Indianapolis. And we can’t have that.

Look at that. Two big paragraphs and the NFL makes 47% more sense. No need to thank me, Roger Goodell, I’ll just take my six-figure salary and get out of your hair. Just for kicks, let’s see what this idealistic NFL would look like, division-wise:

NFC North, NFC East, AFC East, AFC West: unchanged

NFC South: Atlanta Falcons, New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, St. Louis Cardinals.

NFC West: San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, Los Angeles Rams, Arizona Octogenarians (w/ current Jaguars roster)

AFC North: Cincinnati Bengals, Pittsburgh Steelers, Cleveland Browns (w/ current Ravens roster), Houston Oilers (w/ current Titans roster)

AFC South: Baltimore Colts, Carolina Panthers, Tennessee Titans (w/ current Texans roster), Indianapolis Tire Fires (w/ current Browns roster)

So now, in revised NFL history, Peyton Manning gets a statue placed side by side with Johnny U’s; the ’99-’01 Rams shatter the record for most cameos in Hollywood films by NFL players; the Oilers maintain their old AFC Central rivalries with the Steelers, Bengals, and Browns; and Jacksonville, Florida is just a swamp. You’re welcome.

Random thoughts

The Rams’ defensive line was the lone bright spot of a very long and injury-filled 2011 season. Chris Long looked more and more like the second coming of his old man Howie, notching 13 sacks; the Rams as a whole tied for sixth in the league in sack rate, sending opposing quarterbacks to the turf on 7.6% of all dropbacks. The problem was they were behind so often that they didn’t get many opportunities to rush the passer…Boy genius Josh McDaniels did little to help Sam Bradford achieve his potential (when he wasn’t injured, anyway) in his single season as offensive coordinator, so new coach Jeff Fisher brought in Jets castoff Brian Schottenheimer to wring some better results out of the former #1 overall pick. If Schottenheimer’s tutelage of Mark Sanchez is any indication, the Rams will be very adept at the “Run, Run, Pass, Punt” formula of offense…Fisher returns to coaching after leaving the Titans’ job he’d held since 1994 after the 2010 season. Fisher is an above-average coach, as evidenced by his .542 all-time winning percentage, but he’s often been portrayed in the past by the media as a cross between Knute Rockne and Vince Lombardi. The Oilers/Titans made the playoffs in only six of his sixteen full seasons as coach. Let’s not expect miracles here in St. Louis…

 

Outlook

After losing a de facto playoff play-in game to the Seahawks to end the 2010 season, the Rams entered last season as the favorite to win the NFC West. After getting ransacked by injuries and going 2-14 last season, the Rams enter this season to remarkably low expectations. Hence, if you’re looking for an attractive sleeper team this year, this might not be a bad place to look. The Rams actually have a solid base defensively and, with the addition of cornerback Cortland Finnegan and a slate of opposing offenses that looks exceedingly manageable, it’s reasonable to think the Rams will be average or even a bit above-average defensively in 2012. Sam Bradford hasn’t posted anything to get excited about statistically in his first two years in the league, but he’s shown a great deal of talent and appears to be a quick learner and hard worker; players like that rarely turn into complete washouts unless injuries are involved (knock on wood). Don’t be surprised to see St. Louis hanging around the NFC West race late in the year; unless San Francisco fights off the massive regression towards the mean it seems set for on special teams and in the turnover battle, there will not be a team that runs away with this division. Saying the Rams could absolutely win the NFC West is essentially akin to saying Verne Troyer absolutely could be one of the largest dwarfs in the world. But, hey, it’s better than 2-14.

2012 Projected Point Differential: 323.5-346.6

2012 Average Projection: 7.4-8.6 (1st NFC West)