Week 5 Predictive Yards per Play Rankings

Here are Week 5’s Predictive Yards per Play ratings for your viewing pleasure. Don’t worry! Houston’s no longer #1 overall! They’re now a much more sensible #2.

Offensive Predictive Yards per Play, through Week 5:

Rank Team Yards Plays Passing TDs INTs Rushing TDs Fumbles SOS PY/P (Ball-Control Adjusted
1 Denver Broncos 2449 357 20 1 6 10 -0.26 6.66
2 Green Bay Packers 1813 269 9 3 3 6 0.05 6.51
3 New Orleans Saints 2025 340 12 4 2 2 -0.07 6.11
4 Philadelphia Eagles 2274 344 8 2 6 7 -0.20 6.04
5 San Diego Chargers 2008 323 13 5 1 6 0.07 5.94
6 Atlanta Falcons 1957 325 10 3 3 6 0.03 5.87
7 Indianapolis Colts 1812 322 7 2 7 4 0.05 5.70
8 Seattle Seahawks 1832 323 9 4 4 8 0.29 5.51
9 Dallas Cowboys 1886 304 13 2 2 9 -0.23 5.45
10 Houston Texans 1954 373 8 9 1 4 0.36 5.34
11 Chicago Bears 1843 307 10 6 4 7 -0.14 5.28
12 Detroit Lions 1905 330 8 3 5 9 -0.23 5.10
13 Washington Redskins 1563 266 6 4 3 6 -0.19 5.08
14 San Francisco 49ers 1609 296 6 4 7 6 0.14 5.05
15 Kansas City Chiefs 1742 342 7 3 3 3 -0.17 4.84
16 New York Jets 1753 322 7 8 2 7 0.20 4.82
17 Minnesota Vikings 1402 247 4 5 7 7 -0.02 4.75
18 Miami Dolphins 1583 301 6 5 5 7 0.19 4.70
19 Tennessee Titans 1590 329 8 2 3 6 0.07 4.69
20 New England Patriots 1717 347 7 3 1 8 0.16 4.62
21 Pittsburgh Steelers 1365 250 5 5 2 8 -0.02 4.53
22 Carolina Panthers 1316 266 6 5 2 5 0.05 4.52
23 Oakland Raiders 1651 295 6 3 3 9 -0.36 4.49
24 Baltimore Ravens 1654 352 5 8 5 4 0.13 4.39
25 Buffalo Bills 1743 363 5 4 5 10 0.15 4.34
26 Cincinnati Bengals 1651 324 5 5 5 10 -0.09 4.26
27 St. Louis Rams 1558 339 10 3 0 6 -0.18 4.16
28 Arizona Cardinals 1531 308 5 9 3 7 0.18 4.15
29 Cleveland Browns 1585 345 8 6 1 5 -0.08 4.00
30 New York Giants 1685 309 8 13 2 8 -0.14 3.93
31 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1099 257 3 5 1 5 0.13 3.63
32 Jacksonville Jaguars 1259 311 3 9 2 6 0.19 3.28

Defensive Predictive Yards per Play Rankings, through Week 5:

Rank Team Yards Plays Passing TDs INTs Rushing TDs Fumbles SOS PY/P (Ball-Control Adjusted
1 Seattle Seahawks 1518 315 5 7 3 11 0.23 3.60
2 Houston Texans 1301 285 7 2 4 6 0.28 3.67
3 Kansas City Chiefs 1564 321 4 7 2 11 -0.15 3.92
4 San Francisco 49ers 1512 331 5 6 6 6 0.28 3.96
5 New York Jets 1495 333 9 1 3 8 0.14 4.01
6 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1329 274 5 6 0 5 0.06 4.16
7 Cleveland Browns 1509 354 2 4 8 6 -0.27 4.17
8 Baltimore Ravens 1677 327 9 3 1 8 0.26 4.22
9 New England Patriots 1725 339 4 6 2 7 0.07 4.27
10 Cincinnati Bengals 1584 324 6 5 2 7 -0.07 4.33
11 Carolina Panthers 1206 242 3 6 2 3 -0.15 4.46
12 Tennessee Titans 1606 313 6 6 3 6 0.04 4.47
13 Arizona Cardinals 1717 335 8 7 1 5 0.12 4.59
14 Buffalo Bills 1887 363 9 9 2 5 -0.21 4.92
15 Indianapolis Colts 1652 303 4 7 4 6 -0.25 4.96
16 Miami Dolphins 1965 351 8 6 4 6 0.33 5.01
17 New Orleans Saints 1652 278 6 7 2 7 -0.18 5.05
18 Pittsburgh Steelers 1287 253 4 0 6 3 -0.09 5.11
19 Chicago Bears 1883 315 8 6 3 12 -0.12 5.17
20 Detroit Lions 1964 323 5 8 5 8 0.10 5.17
21 New York Giants 1976 367 12 4 5 6 0.20 5.20
22 Oakland Raiders 1820 322 9 3 3 7 0.03 5.28
23 Jacksonville Jaguars 1899 332 12 2 4 7 0.12 5.42
24 Philadelphia Eagles 2170 368 11 5 4 6 0.12 5.53
25 Green Bay Packers 1499 253 9 2 3 6 -0.10 5.57
26 St. Louis Rams 1912 314 11 3 5 11 -0.21 5.60
27 Minnesota Vikings 1723 295 10 7 4 7 -0.13 5.70
28 San Diego Chargers 2030 312 10 1 2 7 0.15 5.86
29 Atlanta Falcons 1861 302 12 3 2 3 -0.07 6.01
30 Dallas Cowboys 2046 334 14 5 2 6 -0.10 6.05
31 Washington Redskins 1762 278 9 2 4 5 0.03 6.11
32 Denver Broncos 2083 330 11 7 5 3 -0.38 6.39

Predictive Yards per Play Differential, through Week 5:

Rank Team PY/P Diff. Remaining SOS Projected Wins
1 Seattle Seahawks 1.91 -30.69 12.84
2 Houston Texans 1.67 -38.01 11.39
3 San Francisco 49ers 1.09 -30.41 11.38
4 New Orleans Saints 1.06 -6.23 12.41
5 Green Bay Packers 0.94 -12.54 9.97
6 Kansas City Chiefs 0.92 13.65 10.35
7 New York Jets 0.81 -8.36 8.92
8 Indianapolis Colts 0.74 2.75 9.05
9 Philadelphia Eagles 0.51 -21.23 7.38
10 New England Patriots 0.36 14.21 9.60
11 Denver Broncos 0.27 -8.31 12.74
12 Tennessee Titans 0.22 -10.69 7.51
13 Baltimore Ravens 0.17 6.67 8.40
14 Chicago Bears 0.11 -10.47 8.92
15 San Diego Chargers 0.08 -8.61 8.27
16 Carolina Panthers 0.06 -2.43 5.75
17 Detroit Lions -0.07 -16.09 9.19
18 Cincinnati Bengals -0.07 -9.73 9.34
19 Atlanta Falcons -0.14 -9.06 7.53
20 Cleveland Browns -0.17 1.11 6.91
21 Miami Dolphins -0.30 -12.23 8.29
22 Arizona Cardinals -0.44 16.11 6.46
23 Tampa Bay Buccaneers -0.53 8.04 2.13
24 Buffalo Bills -0.58 -11.00 6.72
25 Pittsburgh Steelers -0.58 -5.28 6.33
26 Dallas Cowboys -0.61 -10.69 8.10
27 Oakland Raiders -0.79 13.81 5.92
28 Minnesota Vikings -0.95 6.08 5.58
29 Washington Redskins -1.03 6.66 6.10
30 New York Giants -1.27 4.32 3.58
31 St. Louis Rams -1.44 18.90 4.87
32 Jacksonville Jaguars -2.15 19.04 1.00

Notes on Week 5’s ratings:

  • Despite losing for the first time this season, Seattle nonetheless rises to the #1 spot in the overall rankings and now has the highest projected win total for the season, narrowly edging out still-unbeaten Denver (more on them in a minute) and New Orleans in PY/P’s win projection model. Their division rival 49ers have risen up to third in the overall rankings, largely due to a very tough opening schedule. In fact, the Seahawks and 49ers have faced two of the four toughest schedules in the league so far…but are projected to have two of the three easiest schedules going forward. Seems safe to pronounce those two teams as playoff locks, just like we all figured they would be before the season started.
  • Sandwiched in between those two teams in the overall rankings is the squad that lost to both of them in the past two weeks – the Houston Texans. Sunday Night’s disaster against the 49ers was clearly their worst game of the season and their PY/P rating took a hit as a result – but not as large of a hit as you would expect. The Texans actually outgained the 49ers in yardage Sunday Night and still are averaging 5.2 yards per play on offense, compared to 4.6 yards per play on defense. And they’ve been doing that against the hardest schedule in the league so far.
  • With that said, though, I’m still proclaiming PY/P’s win projection for Houston of 11.4 wins completely foolhardy and not something that should be taken seriously. In the long run, the Texans are a good franchise with a very strong foundation on both sides of the ball and at some point they’re going to get out the monstrous rut they’re currently in and get back to winning. The emotional trauma that Matt Schaub is going through right now, however, isn’t going to suddenly disappear in an instant and I’m not sure how a schedule filled with two games against the Colts (plus matchups with Denver, Kansas City and New England) could possibly be considered the easiest remaining in the league. Oh wait, actually now I know – they still have two games with Jacksonville. My mistake. Nevertheless, 11 or 12 wins is still crazy at this point.
  • Denver is still projected as the #1 seed in the AFC this year, mainly because the team’s offensive Consistency Index is off the charts (it’s almost as if they have a good offense this year or something). In the actual PY/P rankings this week, though, the Broncos only come in at #11. The two reasons for this are as follows: 1): the Broncos have faced by far the easiest schedule in the league so far, according to Predictive Yards per Play (just think how much further their schedule strength will sink after facing Jacksonville this week) and 2): (closely correlated with #1) they currently have the worst-rated defense in the league, an extremely easy statement to believe if you watched their performance against Dallas Sunday. Getting Von Miller and Champ Bailey back will obviously help and it’ll come at a good time because after their upcoming slaughter of the Jaguars, the Broncos get into the tough portion of their schedule. They still have two games against Kansas City and two against the Chargers, plus the assorted tough teams of the AFC South and the Patriots.
  • The NFC East race – or light jog, if we’re being honest with ourselves – provides an interesting dichotomy among the two main projection models I use. Strictly going by Predictive Yards per Play, Philadelphia is rated well ahead of everyone else in the division and should wind up running away with the ignominious title of 2013 NFC East Champion. But the wins projection model using Consistency Index is enamored with Tony Romo’s 71.8% completion rate and not very excited by Philadelphia’s 55.6% completion percentage. Thus, according to the official wins projection model, Dallas is still projected to win the NFC East and wind up as the Wild-Card Round sacrificial lamb for either the 49ers or Seahawks. For accuracy’s sake, I’ll be interested to see which team winds up winning the division because it’ll provide a good litmus test for which prediction model winds up being more accurate.
  • Two slight changes came about in this week’s playoff projections. First, in the NFC, Green Bay’s win over Detroit made them the favorite to win the NFC North again, which they honestly should have been all along. In the AFC, Indianapolis is now projected to earn the final Wild-Card slot instead of San Diego – the Chargers are still amongst a group of four teams closely nipping at the Colts’ heels in the projections. Remember, though, that these projections still carry a slight weight of the preseason forecast PY/P had made for all teams and the Colts’ preseason projection was actually worse than every team’s other than Jacksonville. As the preseason forecast slowly gets phased out over the next few weeks, expect the Colts’ win projection to jump each time because it now appears that they’re a legitimately good team.

Projected AFC Playoff Picture, through Week 5:

  1. Denver (12.7 wins)
  2. Houston (11.4 wins)
  3. New England (9.6 wins)
  4. Cincinnati (9.3 wins)
  5. Kansas City (10.4 wins)
  6. Indianapolis (9.1 wins)

In the hunt: NY Jets (8.9 wins), Baltimore (8.4 wins), Miami (8.3 wins), San Diego (8.3 wins), Tennessee (7.5 wins)

Mediocre: Cleveland (6.9 wins), Buffalo (6.7 wins), Pittsburgh (6.3 wins), Oakland (5.9 wins)

Teddy Bridgewater Sweepstakes: Jacksonville (1.0 win)

Projected NFC Playoff Picture, through Week 5:

  1. Seattle (12.8 wins)
  2. New Orleans (12.4 wins)
  3. Green Bay (10.0 wins)
  4. Dallas (8.1 wins)
  5. San Francisco (11.4 wins)
  6. Detroit (9.2 wins)

In the hunt: Chicago (8.9 wins), Atlanta (7.5 wins), Philadelphia (7.4 wins)

Mediocre: Arizona (6.5 wins), Washington (6.1 wins), Carolina (5.8 wins), Minnesota (5.6 wins)

Teddy Bridgewater Sweepstakes: St. Louis (4.9 wins), NY Giants (3.6 wins), Tampa Bay (2.1 wins)

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